Check out the cubs next big prospect. A Chicago local, playing AA I think this year. Outfielder is what we need!

Aaron, To your knowledge, have the Cubs ever tweaked their 40 man roster according to performance? Ie remove Atkins and Colvin and replace them with Papelbon and Snyder?

Suzy, I know you asked Aaron ... but the answer is yes and they will again this year. I would imagine Marcos Mateo will be released, if he hasn't already in order to clear the spot.

As for Tyler Colvin, too early to give up on him. I know you are worried about Jeremy Papelbon, but I don't think anyone will pick him up in the Rule 5.

Welington Castillo, Blake Parker and John Gaub are locks to be added by the November 20 deadline.

guys im worried Starlin Castro will be picked up in the rule 5 draft should we protect him?

I don't know if you were being sarcastic or not, but I'll risk it by answering the question.

Castro is not Rule 5 eligible. If a player is signed 18 and under, he has 5 years in the system before he's eligible, whereas if he's older than 18 years old, (most college players) he has just 4 years in the system. College players are expected to be more advanced, especially Division 1 players. Notice that Brett Jackson and LeMahieu made it to Peoria almost immediately after signing, as both spent just a handful of games at Boise/Mesa. Teams do this, because they know they have 4 years to see what they have with them, before they must be added to the 40-man roster. If you think about logical progression through our system, players usually begin at rookie ball in Mesa or Boise (sometimes both in the same season), then low-A Peoria, then high-A Daytona, then AA Tennessee, then AAA Iowa. (that's a total of 5 years if you spent a year at each level) See where I'm getting at? It's why a lot of high school kids, and some Latino prospects often languish in the low minors for awhile, before they advance, because teams have more time to evaluate them and sometimes they procrastinate promoting them.

MLB does this, because most high schoolers are signed at 17 or 18, and most foreign players are signed at 16. If you're in a system for 5 years as a high schooler, you're 22-23 years old at that point. If you're a foreigner, you're as young as 21 when eligible. This keeps teams from hording players, not giving them an opportunity to advance. This is where good talent evaluators really make their money. The Minnesota Twins are probably the best team in the league at doing this---identifying Rule 5 and Rule 55 draft eligible players, and not messing around with fringe players on their 40-man, because they value each and every spot...unlike the Cubs seem to do under Hendry. We have Miles, Mateo, Patton, Stevens, Atkins, and Fontenot taking up valuable roster spots. None are particularly good at any one thing, and all have struggled mightily at upper levels/MLB. Why does Hendry hang onto them? Good question. It's a good question, because he doesn't seem to value these spots as much as other teams, hence why he didn't protect McGehee or Veal last year, and look what they did. All McGehee did was nearly win the ROY award, and Veal is currently tearing up the AZFL. In other seasons, he's left Dopirak off, and he is now one of the Blue Jays top prospects, while he's protected marginal players. Again, this is why we have struggled. It's because we have an incompetent GM who not only lacks a vision for the future, but one that has absolutely no clue how to use his system to his advantage in either selling high on them, obtaining up-and-coming talent for the MLB team, or moving players along correctly up through the system.

What I'm even more perplexed about, is how an organization that was so incredibly good in the early 1900's from about 1906-1945 at developing their own talent, became so inept at it later in the century, continuing into the 21st century.

It's almost like the organization needs to purge every last person in player development and upper management and most of the coaching staffs, and start over again. I'm not speaking of coaching at the MLB level (though I don't want Lou or Rothschild either), but minor league coaches are so incredibly important in a player's development, that you have to look there right away, but the first place you must look is the ones pulling the strings in the organization, and that falls squarely on the heads of Kenney and Hendry.

I'm said this many times, but I'd much rather have a 40-man roster that included the likes of Castro, Flaherty, W. Castillo, Burke, Parker, Gaub, Jay Jackson, Cashner, and Jeremy Papelbon than one that includes Miles, Fontenot, K Hill, Colvin, Patton, Mateo, Stevens, Grabow, and Atkins.

The fact is, because of mismanagement of the minor league system, this is EXACTLY what you get. You get a logjam of fringe players on the 40-man roster, and not much room for improvement, because if you were to DFA them, some might get selected due to their experience, thus making it even more risky, because you then don't have players that have MLB experience on your roster, even if those players were fringe to begin with...it's still the main point I'm talking about.

I know I'm rambling, but I'll give you a quick example. Colvin had proven absolutely nothing during his career with us that he was a capable MLB talent. In fact, he was even worse than Ryan Harvey if you can believe that. I'd actually rather have Harvey right now than Colvin. But because he so desperately wanted to prove that selecting Colvin in the first round a few years ago, was the right call (though almost everyone in the baseball community agreed that it was one of the worst "reaches" of the draft....and thus, because he promoted Colvin, a much more experienced and deserving Brad Snyder didn't get the call. Now, not only to we have an undeserving player on our 40-man roster, but we also are unable to protect Snyder, who is currently crushing the ball in the Mexican Winter League. This is just one example...I could go on for about a day about all the other ill-advised moves he's made regarding the 40-man roster. It's utterly ridiculous.

Aaron,

I agree 100% about JHendry's incompetence, and also about the Cubs' entire management has been wholly inept for 65 years! IN-credible! The whole environment is wrong, partly because it is a good ole boys' club. JHendry hiring inept Littlefield, and Ed Lynch (for crying out loud!) just last week leaving the Cubs after 20 disasterous years! How he had a job in MLB for 20 minutes, I have yet to discern.

I would remind you that the 40 man roster requires that anyone that plays in the major leagues must be on it at the time they play. Thus Scales had to be added. And when they are dropped from the roster, they can go be lost to another club.

The Twins protect so many young players because they actually have some young players worth protecting. JHendry has wrecked our minor leagues, and to compensate his ineptitude, he has spend wildly on free agents. And since his FA spending was also inept and incompetent, he has now wrecked the Cubs irremediably for the next five years minimum.

So for those Cubs fans who want to live in reality in 2010, when it comes to "96 wins" or "101 wins", youcanforgetaboutit.

Grant, the Cubs do not have to protect Castro yet.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2003/01/transactions-glossary.html

Castro was signed in 2006, players signed under 18 years of age have five years ... not four.

Scroll down on the link I provided.

He will be added to the 40-man at some point in 2010, just not by Friday's deadline.

Neil, I know your feelings on Snyder...do you think he'll still be with us?...What are your thoughts on Mitch Atkins...he did not have a great season at AAA.

Suzy, Snyder filed for free agency. The Cubs will have to re-sign him in order for him to be an option. I would hope they would but he might have better opportunities elsewhere. As Aaron has mentioned, Snyder could end up being the 2010 version of Casey McGehee.

As for Mitch Atkins, I like what I saw in limited action in the bigs. He had a horrible start last season and picked it up as the season progressed. He was the Cubs "sixth starter" entering spring training last year and was not ready.

They will give him another chance but Casey Coleman could jump him in the depth chart.

I was surprised Atkins was not a September call-up.

Couple of late afternoon thoughts:

Read some Dayne Perry today...not one of my favorite writers...but one thing struck me.

I'm not in any way an advocate for DeRo.

I would much rather see a young up and comer....

But it would be a fairly cheap PR coup

for the Cubs to resign him for 2nd.

2nd, The solution to Miles is St. Louis.

LaRussa and he were buds. The Cubs could trade him for anything and eat

1.7 or so...and St Louis might bite...

saving us another mil...and the horror of

him in Wrigley.

I have been a reader of this site for over a year now, however this is my first comment. I wanted to let you, the CCO Community and Neil, to keep up the good work. Recently, my brother and a friend of his have started a site similar to this one, http://www.amateurgm.com/, and I would like to invite all of you to check out the site and feel free to comment on anything you like. Like most of you, we are passionate about the Cubs and baseball in general. We look to this site as a model of what its like to make a true baseball site for fans. I know I am breaking from the discussion and plugging a site so I will stop. I plan on posting and hearing from each one in the future on CCO. Keep up the good work!

Ryan, thank you and your comments/posts are always welcome here.

Solid Post's Aaron! Agreed that this is a defining off season...And there are many routes to go. I am starting to not feel so hot about 2010 either because "you know who" is buying the groceries.

And very well said Suzy. I guess at this point with the rumors that have been sent out there... The only name I see that matches anything I would consider is McCarthy, and that is a throw in for a potential Bradley deal. It is becoming clear the direction Hendry wants to go in. Quite frankly I have to ask, how many times do you have to get kicked in the you know what's to stop doing whatever it is that you are doing to get kicked there in the first place.

You are also exactly right... the margin for error is 0, it has passed the razor thin point. And I agree the biggest concern this offseason, is that he doesn't mess it up for 2011 and beyond.

Aaron, from my seat, I've already given up on major improvement for 2010.

It is my real hope that JH doesn't screw it up for 2011 and beyond...that's my real focus.

That's not to say I'm taking a pass on 2010....I'm just saying it should be a year of transition, developing talent,

and identifying the direction the team will go in.

If I were GM...I would sign no long term extentions...so we would lose DLee and Lilly this year...one way or the other.

The Cubs are stuck in limboland right now....a few championship pieces like Aram, Lee, possibly Zambrano...and a lot of non-performers.

I'm not naive enough to think in 2012 we just get good by magic...a lot of work and groundwork has to go into it.

Regarding this offseason...we never had a payroll like this at the high end with non-performers and a player like Milton.

Whatever Hendry does...he no longer has ANY margin for error.

Why does everyone value Carl Crawford so much higher than Curtis Granderson? I am really curios.

To me, Crawford has been over rated for a few years. I think it is because 4 or 5 years ago everyone kept saying that his power was developing and he'd be a 20-50 guy down the road and was highly touted. Well his power has never developed and you have a .300 hitter that can steal 50+ bases a year. That is very nice. I think I'd rather have .280 hitter with very real 25-25 potential every year.

I hear the rap on Curtis not being able to hit Left-handed pitching, it is a problem, but I think the rest of his upside out weighs that.

Crawford hits Lefties better - career .270, but his OBP is pretty bad (.316) and his k/bb is 2/1. I know Granderson's split is worse, point is Crawford doesn't necessarily mash Lefties.

Basically I believe run production is more important than BA and SBs. And because Crawford is over-rated, he will cost more in trade and eventually in re-signing him.

Good point JC 3-6-3...for us I don't think it matters one way or the other...

I don't think we'll get either.

If you slotted money per position like the NFL does...Hendry has already overspent in the outfield and still hasn't got it right.

2010

Soriano 18 mil

Fuko 13 mil

Bradley 9 mil

_______________

40 mil ...in 2010

2011

Soriano 18 mil

Fuko 13.5 mil

Bradley 12 mil

_________________

43.5 mil

Bradley's salary will not go away in the trade. Figures do not include back-ups.

In the next 2 years, where is there room for Granderson or Crawford to be added to those numbers?

We HAVE to go low cost...either old and senile...(Cameron...or young and unproven.)

I don't think I've ever recalled an offseason that could go so many different ways with the Cubs. Here are the different scenarios:

1)Reduce payroll to mirror the economy

2)Increase payroll a lot to meet needs at 2B, OF, bench, and relief. Basically do what Hendry's been doing each of the past few offseasons.

3)Make trades, purging our system of talent to meet team needs

4)Purge our team of veterans to get a younger team

5)inter-mix low cost "Hendry"-type FA acquisitions and "buy low" type of trades.

That's a lot of different scenarios, and you know what, we've heard just about everything from one end of the spectrum to the other:

1)We heard that the Cubs payroll might even be less than last year's by Hendry himself...(then he contradicted himself about a week later saying they'd have a slight increase)

2)We also heard reports at the end of the season that we might even go after Holliday, Bay, or Lackey, which would ALL be large contract FA acquisitions

3)We've heard of trades for Granderson, and others, and most of the names bantered about would deplete our system of good talent

4)We've heard from Cubs brass that they want to get younger....part of that would be purging veterans for young talent.

5)We've also heard from Hendry himself that he'd make only minor tweaks to the team, which we all basically know in Hendry lingo means that it's a foregone conclusion that he will focus on the Mark Loretta's, Darin Erstad's, and Cabrera's of this world as low risk, low reward, low-priced veterans as more roster fillers than anything else.

I think each of us on this site would be extremely upset if that's all Hendry did, and yet, it's virtually guaranteed that he will do the veteran signings I just mentioned, and that he will become fixated on a certain unattainable individual (either b/c he can't get creative enough, or they're asking too much in return in trade, or too much in free agency from the agents). In most recent seasons, Hendry became fixated on Carlos Beltran, Rafael Furcal, Soriano, Fukudome, Roberts, Peavy, and Bradley to notice anything else to improve the team. Think about this for just one second....by waiting free agency out, teams like the Nationals (Dunn), Angels (Abreu), and Dodgers (Hudson), were able to cut their investments in those players not only in half in terms of $$, but also years. At the outset of free agency, Dunn was reportedly looking for $16 million, Abreu about the same, and Hudson at least $10 million, and in pretty much all cases, they get them for a 50% discount. Ask yourself why they were able to do that....Well, the Nats were set prior to the season in the OF, the Angels were certainly taken care of there too, and the Dodgers had a lot of young talent, including veterans alike that could handle 2B for them....it was all low risk situations with high reward for those teams, because they upgraded significantly by being patient.

The Cubs, on the other hand, not only have backed themselves into a corner at CF and RF, but they also have holes at 5th starter and middle relief. You think agents don't know that? You think other teams in trades don't know that?

The Marlins knew they could ask for the moon for Gregg, because Henddry had already backed himself into a corner, declaring they wouldn't resign Wood. If he'd approached it another way, or just waited until the Marlins non-tendered him, which they clearly were going to do, it'd be either a low level prospect, or nothing at all.

It's why I've always stated, and I believe Neil, you agree....that Hendry is NOT suited to be GM, because he is more reactive than proactive. A byproduct of a person with a reactive mentality is last minute cramming for a test that you put off, or complacency. A byproduct for proactive is someone that's constantly studying for test, etc., or demanding excellence.

Hendry is like the student that crams for a test at the last minute, then claims he didn't have time to study....it's like when he signed Bradley, he's like, "I didn't have time to research his peripheral stats, or research his history of poor decision-making, etc."...as a consequence to that, he looked just at his stats from the previous season, and thought that's what he'd be getting. In other cases, it's like he's backed into a corner, and lacks vision to be able to compensate when things don't work out. For instance, we need a lefty reliever. What does Hendry do....he sends just Gaub to the AZFL, and the only other one I'm aware of that's playing anywhere is Mathes, and he's considered a starter, and a non-prospect. What happens if that guy struggles? You have to know whom to protect in the Rule 5, don't you? Then, there's Papelbon. Why didn't he send him anywhere? He's eligible for Rule 5, and is worth consideration for the 40 man based on his stats. Then there's a matter of OF needs. He didn't send Colvin or Burke anywhere, and they could've maybe solved our OF issues if we even knew what we had....but them staying at home, or scrimmaging guys in the DR training complex isn't helping anybody.

See what I mean? Being an effective GM, means that you have to think outside the box to maximize the talent on your team and your farm system to the full extent. You must also anticipate potential issues as well, and plan for the future. Since Bobby Hill and Choi, when was the last time we had a "sell high" trade? I guess you could say the Harden/Gaudin trade, but the very fact that we had to have Gaudin in that trade to hedge against injury concerns with Harden makes it a borderline "sell high" situation, especially since Gallagher, E Patterson, and Murton all had issues staying at the MLB level, making Donaldson the only one you were truly selling high on.

We all know the benefit of going after the likes of EY Jr., BJ Upton, Chris Davis, and Mitchell Moreland, but if you believe Hendry thinks the same way, you're in for a rude awakening. The guy isn't fit to be in a position of power in any organization. He lacks the "it" factor.

I know Eric Byrnes isn't the same player he was 3 years ago. In fact he is probably a below average player now but you have to respect his heart and hustle. I would make the trade for someone who runs out EVERY ground ball and dives into walls for EVERY fly ball any day. His statistics might be well below that of Bradley's but he could potentially be a huge asset to his teammates.

1rst...the rumored/debunked/rumored trade is a 3 way thing...debunked again btw...BUT in the proposed scenario...

DLee would end up with the Angels in Konerko's place...the Padres would get prospects from I assume both the Anfels and us....It's not going to happen...3 way trades are hard for Hendry to fit in his brainwaves.

But those are going to be the TYPE of trades necessary to remake the Cubs.

All of baseball is going to target Crawford and Upton...knowing that the Rays can't keep them both...we should be a player...but probably not because of payroll constraint and lack of strategic planning.

What is strategic planning??? Like when the Yankess passed on Santana 2 years ago

so they could go full throttle at CC and

Texeira.

It got them the World Series.

It doesn't always work that easy...but the Cubs should be looking 2 to 3 years away right now...in that same vein.

I don't think they will...player wise...

until Hendry and Kenney are gone.

I would trade Vitters for Davis

or EY Jr....but it would take more than him...right now, Baseball America is projecting Vitters in LF...not 3rd.

While a valuable prospect still...Vitters

is much less valuable to us when he moves away from 3rd base positon...How many years did it take to replace Santo?

Your thinking is good Cloycub...It's what I think most of us would like to see...Alas...2 more years of Fuko/Sori

& whoever replaces Milton.

Before you guys jump on me for Sori's additional 3 years...Somehow/someway I believe the Cubs will have to come to some sort of accomodation with him re deferred payments at the end of his contract.

If a player is unable to physically perform...you can't put him on the field.

...and it's easy to see that happening.

If Sox get Gonzales, then I'd say that old Keeeenny Williams is getting the job done for the Sox. Konerko stinks and Gonzalex rocks. JHendry ought to get into this deal.

If this rumor is true, if I were JH I would offer SD Lee and Marshall or Gorz. plus a couple other prospects for Gonzalez and offer to pay all of Lee's 2010 contract.

Sadly, I do not think D. Lee would waive his NT to go to SD. It would be a death nail to the rest of his career. He would be about their best offensive threat. To be honest I would do a:

Lee (3/4 of his contract), Vitters, Marshall, Colvin

For A. Gonzalez

I would mortgage an acre of the farm for A Gon's talent... BUT A Gon is going to get a big raise soon. And if we land him we would need to resign him. And that just does not look feaseable at the moment.

In My opinion, a better, more cost effective deal would be

Lee (1/2 Contract), Marshall, Colvin

To Texas for Chris Davis and Brandon McCarthy.

Davis is going to be a stud folks just watch. He has serious POP, and is an above average fielder. McCarthy would be a cost effective Insurance policy in the rotation, and I would be more than happy to trot him out as our #5.

I hate talking trades... it is so hard for me to speculate on what other teams want, are they over valuing/under valuing, am I? All I know is targets. And trying to come up with creative ways to make them happen.

For me Targets include

1. Crawford (OF)

2. EY Jr (2B)

3. Chris Davis (1B)

4. Upton (OF)

Put A-gon way down that list because it just isn't going to happen. Would be nice, and I would definitely have a lot more faith in this team, but no way no how can Hendry pull that off.

However I see no reason why Chris Davis and Eric Young Jr. are not attainable targets. It isn't money.

Would you trade Vitters straight up for EY? I think I would at this point. Thats talent for talent, even more that's unproven Talent for Unproven talent. Vitters does not fill a need, and if Ramy is ever locked up at 3B Vitters is blocked. 2B is a need, speed is a need, Defense is a need, and they are all immediate, and I believe Young fills each of those roles for a long time.

Ramy-3B

Castro- SS

Young Jr-2B

Davis-1B

Now that's looking a little better up the middle.

There ya go guys... have at it... Other than Hendry is a dope and won't be smart enough to pull it off... give me a viable reason why either Davis or EY can't be had.

Radio 670 the SCORE is persisting in reporting the RUMOR that talks are going on between the White Sox/Angels/Padres.

re Konerko to the Angels, Gonzales to the White Sox and prospects to the Padres.

IMO it probably won't happen...but it gets one to thinking...If Lee would agree to waive his no trade clause...

why couldn't we do a similar type deal

to free up payroll?

Instead of working on an extension with DLee...Hendry should tell him there is no money for an extension...(close to the truth)...so it's this year or next.

Again...probably won't happen...but something to ponder.

Rip, unfortunately for us...there is no good way to get rid of Bradley...And it is really not about getting better...

It's about not living with Milton.

The sad thing is Milton keeps his money.

Hendry has kept his job to this point.

And we fans will suffer for at least 2

years...maybe more due to this particular bad decision.

Very nice post, Neil.

ERIC BYRNES??? PLEASE DON'T!

Byrnes is a 34 yr old LF that can't hit, run, hit with power, or drive in runs. Even Milton Bradley is better. He's a career .260 hitter with Funko type power (ie, lucky to hit 10 taters a year) and no speed anymore (he once stole 50 bases, but usually he's in the single digit range. Last year he managed 9 SB). Remember, Arizona finished last in RISP BA and near the bottom in offense, and this guy hasn't been more than a platoon player the last two years, and mostly a platoon player he entire career. He had a career year and really got paid, (like Bradley), and now Arizona is stuck. Let'em stay stuck, imo.

Here's his 2008 and 2009 stats in order:

.209 6HR 23 RBI 4 SB

.226 8HR 31 RBI 9 SB

I ask you: Would you pay $22 million for that?

Just wanted to leave a quick note....today our friend JimK was laid to rest.

Last night I found the card which Jim sent to me as I fought to take custody of my daughter. The quote inside says:

A big shot is a little shot that kept shooting--so stay the course

Rest In Peace JimK.

Joe, He was in my thoughts all day.

His words and memory are true...

Stay the course my friend.

A nod and a wink to our friend,JimK...

gone...but never forgotten.