According to a report from Cubs.com, John Grabow was the last of the Cubs possible free agents to file for free agency on Monday. Grabow joined Reed Johnson, Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg and Chad Fox as the five Cubs on the 2009 roster to file for free agency ... Chad Fox's announcement had not been made public before Monday.
The Cubs are expected to re-sign John Grabow this week before he hits the market on Friday. A report over the weekend indicated the Cubs faxed John Grabow's agent an offer sheet last Wednesday.
Both Kevin Gregg and John Grabow were classified as Type-A free agents while Rich Harden was tagged as a Type-B free agent.
If the Cubs offer arbitration by the December 1 deadline to Kevin Gregg and John Grabow, they decline the offer by December 7 and sign with another team, the Cubs would receive two picks (a first round and a sandwich pick). If the Cubs offer arbitration to Rich Harden, they will receive a sandwich pick as compensation in the 2010 Draft.
The Cubs are not expected to offer arbitration to either Rich Harden or Kevin Gregg.
Stay Tuned ...
This world is fundamentally at odds with you when you have a douchebag former closer that qualifies as a Type A when he had 7 blown saves (not even given the opportunity for more, which he surely would've had if he'd kept it the whole year), and a stud "ace" type starter with minor injury issues (though has been just fine with us) in the past, and made the 2nd most starts in his career, and came away with a very respectable 4.09 ERA with 171 K's in 141 IP, and comes away with Type B status?!? WHAT?!?!?
Yes, the system is flawed...but the designation should mean nothing to either Harden or Gregg...since it's unlikely we'd offer arbitration to either.
Suzy...guess this answers your question. Sorry I could not find an exact answer before.
For now it does Neil...but the question still remains...what if a player for whatever reason...(his agent screws up?)
fails to file on time. What then?
It's not really important but it would be a good trivia question sometime.
If the agent fails to file on time, the player remains the property of his current club, and he loses the right to arby. He must resign with his club at whatever rate they want to pay him. (MLB has some limitations on how much of a pay cut you can take. I think the figure is 25%).
Suzy, Rip is right with his comment but you asked about retirement and Fox, that is what I do not know the exact answer for ... I would 'assume' he would either announce his retirement by filing the proper papers or be released.
As I expected when you asked, Fox had already filed for free agency.
I agree with you Aaron. Blows my mind. I don't know why the Cubs wouldnt offer Harden arbitration. Worst case you get him for a one year deal and see how he holds up again. You ink him to the typical meet me halfway crap that arbitration has become. Worst case he declines arbitration and we pick up a draft pick for him. Not a bad deal.
Gregg on the other hand, I would offer nothing more than a can of Pledge to dust out his locker on the way out.
JoeS...In normal times...Harden should command 8-10 million per year.
All the back-loaded contracts are bumping up this year...and all of our lowered paid people drom Fontenot on
are eligible for arbitration this year.
Harden does want to come back...and if offered arbitration he'd take it.
But then I don't think the Cubs would have the money for CF or even a minimal upgrade at 2nd.
Hardin may net $8-10 million via arby. Cubs don't want to pay, and I have to agree. He ain't worth it.
JHendry shoulda dealt his hide when he had the chance last trading deadline. Whatwashethinking????
Not sure why anyone on planet earth would be interested in Chad Fox. He outta retire, imo.
Gregg? Just get outta my sight! lol
Maybe he'll succeed in Houston with LaTroy Hawkins. Or maybe Keeeennny WIlliams will take him on the other side of town. I'd like to see him blowing saves over there.
Alex Rios. Now there's a CF that could play alongside of Soriano and Funko. lol
Can't hit his weight anymore. Not motivated much. Not much power and no RBI potential. It would complete our outfield. He's pulling down $28 million. Send Bradley over to the Southside for Rios and it's essentially a swap of losers. Doesn't cure any of our problems, except that Rios doesn't make trouble like Bradley. And I'd bet Guillen could handle Bradley's mouth.
I'd love to see Guillen managing Bradley. So would ESPN.
I'd love to see it, too. Guillen would bust his jaw, and actually, it might do little Milty good. Really.
Actually, Rip...that would be fun to watch...the Ozzie and Milton Show!!!
lol
What was he thinking? He was probably thinking at the last trading deadline we were in the thick of a pennant race so why would we trade a starting pitcher?
We were just 2 games out on July 18th and wound up a half game in front on July 26th. The day of the trading deadline July 31 we were one half game out. So thats why Hendry didnt trade Harden at the last trading deadline.
There were indicators long before July 31st that this team was flawed, had internal turmoil, and was not playing fundamentally sound baseball (regardless of record).
As an effective GM, you have to look at the entire picture, and in Hendry's case, for once sell "high". It's not hindsight, but he missed that opportunity on Harden. All the signs (and stats) were in front of him.
Joe S but Hendry had the opportunity to trade him at the waiver deadline if I am not mistaken to the Twins. Which was the end of August, when I believe we were what 5 or 6 back. Somebody correct if I am mistaken.
You're correct Woody...the Twins claimed him...Hendry said he did not feel they were out of it until September.
I also think he was underwhelmed by the Twins offer in return.
Hendry said that after the fact, then when he was called out on it, by I believe Bruce Miles, he then said that in August, they understood that they were out of it. It's just one of many contradictions from our incompetent GM
It's why I kept saying that we should sell high on Marshall, on Lilly, Fox, and after this season, Lee, because each would've been hot commodities then or now. In Fox's case, I both wanted him to be with us, but also realized very quickly that he wouldn't be used properly, and wanted him traded, because his value was at an all-time high, and he'd eventually be exposed after pitchers stopped throwing him fastballs. PLUS, he didn't seem to have a spot on the roster, just like Hoffpauir before him, and Murton before Hoffpauir, because they were all limited athletically (defensively speaking), and while they could technically play multiple positions, they lacked speed and didn't have good arms either.
A guy like DeRosa, or Baker, or Camp, are valuable because they can not only hit fairly well or have speed (Camp), but they're good at fielding, but guys like Murton, Hoffpauir, Fox, and Miles aren't, because they don't do any one thing particularly well. Fox and Hoffpauir have power, but Fox can't handle breaking pitches, and Hoffpauir can't handle fastballs very well, thus making them marginal hitters and Murton only stood out really with his decent average, but for an OF, he was a marginal talent. Miles doesn't do anything well, and can barely play a lick at the only real position he should be playing (2B).
The question in my mind then turns to different prospects that we might tend to overvalue/undervalue. For instance, guys like Soto, Cedeno, Fox, Murton, and Hoffpauir really didn't turn things on until they reached AAA. Could it have been a product of finally figuring things out, or was it an issue of them just facing inferior competition? Experts have stated that the best competition is in AA, and they certainly have the data to back that up, as most successful MLB players are plucked straight from AA in most cases, and AAA becomes littered with those that can't hack it at the MLB level or are veterans that lost jobs in MLB, and are trying to salvage their careers. It is NOT a developmental level, but more of a "back-up" level. (in other words, where you'd typically find back-ups, or in some cases, give players more time to development when they struggle).
So, I ask you whether we should've sold high on Vitters earlier this season, or Jay Jackson, or Carpenter, or Flaherty, etc.?
In the case of Jay Jackson and Flaherty, you wouldn't "sell high," because that'd infer that you expect them to reach lower levels of production, and I don't expect that of either of them. In the case of Castro, Hak Ju Lee, Cashner, and Watkins it's the same thing. As for Brett Jackson, and LeMahieu, neither could be traded anyhow, because they don't have enough service time with us since the draft, but if they could come close to their stats from this year in 2010, then they'd fall under the same category. So, to me, when valuing our prospects and choosing to get excited/upset depending on performances/trades, we must put everything into context, and remove emotion from it all. For instance, I think most of us would be upset if the likes of Snyder, Clevenger, etc. would be selected in the Rule 5 or Rule 55, but a majority probably wouldn't be upset if Jeremy Papelbon was selected.
If you're a stats follower, and look at chances of future success, then you absolutely should be upset if Papelbon is selected. In fact, I think he's a better talent than John Gaub. Because, what we're looking for is consistency in terms of projecting players. You can't project the Soto's, Murton's, Cedeno's, Fox's, Hoffpauir's, Gaub's, etc. of this world, because they never displayed a level of consistency at the minor league level, until they repeated AAA several times (in Murton, Cedeno, Fox, and Hoffpauir's cases).
Think about it for a second....why am I harping so much on consistency? Let's just put it this way...were most of you upset with Soto's performance this year? How about Fontenot? How about Lee from the previous 3 seasons (not including this year)? Fact is, none of them were particularly consistent in the minors...but in Lee's case, he was promoted at just 21 years old, and was playing in advanced A ball at just 18 years old...even younger than Castro. But even so, none were consistent in the minors, and none have been consistent at the MLB level.
Guys like Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard, Pujols, Adam Dunn, Abreu, etc. were all consistent in the minors, and thus consistent in the majors. But when you look at guys, and you see avg, OBP, and power numbers vary greatly between levels in the minors, you know you have an unprojectable player on your hands. Think about it for a second...How could you possibly say, "Soto is going to hit you 20+hr, 80+RBI"?!? Based on what!?!?
Here were Soto's minor league #'s:
(starting in 2003 at age 20 in Daytona)
high A-.242 avg, .313 OBP, 12 doubles, 2 hr, 38 RBI
AA-.271 avg, .355 OBP, 16 doubles, 9 hr, 48 RBI
AAA-.253 avg, .357 OBP, 14 doubles, 4 hr, 39 RBI
AAA-.272 avg, .353 OBP, 21 doubles, 6 hr, 38 RBI
AAA-.353 avg, .424 OBP, 31 doubles, 26 hr, 109 RBI
I'd say about all you could count on would be a .250-.270 avg, .350-.360 OBP, 20 doubles, 9 hr, 38-50 RBI
Am I wrong? That's why I'm so annoyed when guys have a career year, and everyone jumps on their bandwagon, and starts saying, "well, Milton Bradley, you can expect about 20+hr, 70+RBI with a .310+avg, .400+OBP." REALLY?!?!?
I know almost everyone on here didn't say that, but I'm saying that a lot in the media, and other websites were saying that. I'm sure you wouldn't say that about Bradley, so why would you say it about any other player coming off a career year? It's why I wouldn't touch a "career year" guy with a 10 foot pole in free agency.
Yes, it isn't wise to pay a "career year guy" and expect him to repeat the career year. You must expect him to repeat his avg. Thus if JHendry had applied that rule to Bradley, he would have been surprised to find that Bradley actually had his avg year this year in 2009! That's worth $32 million, ain't it? 9 HR and 40 RBI?
Any particular reason JHendry released Jason Waddell?
Jason Waddell was released in August for violating team rules.
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/08/2009cubslive107.php
Gaub had a nice year in AA and AAA, but wasn't called up in Sept. Had 1.72 ERA with 1 save in Iowa in 30 IP.
At the time the Cubs did not have room on the 40-man roster. Gaub will be added to the 40-man roster before the end of the week.
Shoulda cut Chad Fox years ago! lol
Sam Fuld hit .182 in day games, .398 at night, in 2009.
1 HR, 2 RBI in 97 ABs.
Michael Wuertz: released by Cubs. In 78 IP for the A's last year he fanned 102. 6-1 record, 4 saves, and 23 holds.
BETTER THAN GREGGGGGGG OR HEILMAN. lol
Cheaper than both!
Okay, so let's assume all things are equal for next season (basically) here's the likely outcome for arbitration cases included with committed salary:
Soriano-$19 million
Zambrano-$18.875 million
ARAM-$16.750 million
Fukudome-$14 million
Dempster-$13.5 million
Lee-$13 million
Lilly-$13 million
Bradley-$10.333 million
Miles-$2.5 million
Samardzija-$1,000,000
*other obligations:
Vizcaino-$500,000 (buyout we're stuck with)
Wells-$402,000
Jake Fox-$415,000
Hoffpauir-$407,000
Soto-$575,000
Blanco-$400,000
Caridad-$400,000
Berg-$400,000
=$125,457,333
arbitration eligible (my estimates):
Fontenot-$800,000
Theriot-$1,875,000
Gorzelanny-$1,575,000
Baker-$998,000
Marmol-$4,350,000
Marshall-$1,275,000
Heilman-$2,800,000
K Hill-$700,000
Guzman-$890,000
=$15,263,000
So, all things equal, with a rotation of:
Z
Dempster
Lilly
Wells
Gorzelanny
pen-Marshall, Berg, Samardzija, Heilman, Caridad, Guzman, and Marmol
positions:
C-Soto
1B-Lee
2B-Baker
SS-Theriot
3B-ARAM
LF-Soriano
CF-Fukudome
RF-Bradley
bench: Hill, Fontenot, Blanco, Fox, and Hoffpauir
with just those players, basically all remaining equal, we're sitting directly at $140,720,333
Now, I realize that I could be wrong with the arbitration eligible players, but there are 3 players we could really get burned on with big paydays-Marmol, Theriot, and Gorzelanny, and so that's why I over-inflated my estimates.
If Ricketts stated the $150 million mark, basically as our benchmark, then we'd have a little over $9 million to spend on 2B, CF, RF, and relief. Throw in the estimated contract that supposedly is on the table for Grabow, and we're down to $6.5 million to spend.
My point is this....unless we offload big contracts, we have no maneuverability. The arbitration players really aren't that much of a problem for us. If we could find a taker for Bradley, we might save money for next year, but certainly not this year with the amount of contract we'd have to take back. If we take Burrell, I'm pretty sure we'd have to pay all of Burrell's deal, plus split the difference of Bradley's deal this season to equal out, then we'd most likely have to eat all or most of his 2011 contract. There's absolutely no way we can offload Fukudome's deal either. I'm just not sure what we can do with this team.
Can we trade Wells, Gorzelanny, Guzman, Marmol, Caridad, or even Lilly, and not hurt this team significantly? I'd say Gorzelanny and Caridad might not hurt that much, but the others would destroy our chances if we got rid of them
Let's say that you got rid of Theriot, Fontenot, Soto, Fox, Hoffpauir, Bradley, Marshall, and Gorzelanny. If my predictions hold true with arbitration cases and the Bradley situation, then we'd only save a max of about $8 million between 8 players, and that'd just create 8 more holes for us to fill.
We could save about $1 million on bringing up Castro to replace Theriot. We wouldn't be saving anything technically with Fox, Hoffpauir, Fontenot, and Soto replacements from our minor league system, including Camp, Snyder, Tony Thomas, and W. Castillo. For Gorzelanny and Marshall, we could bring up Gaub and Cashner, and save about $1 million....but that's the whole thing....savings vs replacement cost....what do you really gain? Unless you offload top salaries, you aren't going to make much of a difference. It's ridiculous how bad Hendry screwed us over.
I would think players like Ankiel, Lopez, Wagner, Mike Gonzalez, and Marlon Byrd would cost no less than $4 million on average a piece, and in the case of Byrd, he'd be about double that, so it becomes even more difficult to improve the team.
Here's what's going to happen, and I've already said this before....just expect a standard answer from Hendry in December or January, or in Spring Training, stating, "we looked at several different options to improve the team, but when we looked at the economics, it didn't make good business sense to go after the higher priced free agents. But we feel really good about this season, because we signed a hitting coach that will instantaneously make this team better, and get these guys performing at expected levels. Look, we had about 3/4 of our lineup playing either hurt, or under their career numbers...so, we're not that worried about our lineup. Regarding the rotation, we feel pretty good about the depth we have there too."
I think we should post that comment on the website somewhere Neil, so we can see how spot on I was....can we maybe have a competition like we did for our record/finish this year? Maybe we could all submit what we think will be said, and changes that'll be made, and see how it turned out.
I honestly think Hendry will give us a load of crap like that, and also sign a Mark Loretta, Darin Erstad, or a Miguel Batista, and try to sell us on their "track record" and "good teammate image" or some crap like that.
Am I wrong?
Aaron, I think you are pretty close with your payroll numbers ... very good job. I will bookmark this comment and any others.
Also, I have not forgotten to post the winners from last year's prediction contest. Will have up this week and there will be two winners.
Aaron, with some minor twitches...you are right on with the salaries...Both Soriano and Zambrano are each 1 mil less
then you posted...unless you are counting on them hitting incentives like Cy Young etc.
But I entirely agree with the gist of your post. There is little flexibility
to improve this year's team.
Where normally it would be a no brainer to offer Harden arbitration...the Cubs cannot afford to bring him back...point blank.
It's why we might end up with Mike Cameron in center instead of Marlon Byrd or Granderson or somesuch.
Our improvement/movement will be keyed at rule 5 and the non-tendered list.
Hendry can still tighten up the team
with smaller moves...like trading/releasing Miles.
As I said before, Miles ain't agoin' nowhere. They have to pay him, so they'll keep him in hopes that he rebounds to hit .222 this year, with 10 RBI instead of 5.
Aaron said it well. That's bad management deluxe--right before your eyes. It's incredible to me that JHendry has any defenders at all.
Aaron, you put Samardzija on the bullpen roster and left Grabow off. They might lose Grabow, but I doubt whether Samardzija can hold a ML spot even if Grabow is lost to free agency. Yes, they'll try him two or three times this year, but he just has to develop another pitch. And remember, they promised him a starter's job, too.
It has already been reported that Samardzija will no longer pitch out of the bullpen. He will either be in the rotation for the big club or Iowa.