Game One Hundred Thirty-One: Cubs (66-64) vs. Astros (63-69)
Game Time - 1:20pm C.T.
Coverage - TV: Comcast SportsNet - Radio: 720 WGN, XM Radio Channel 184
Location - Wrigley Field, Chicago
Ted Lilly (9-8, 3.35/1.11) vs. Felipe Paulino (2-6, 6.96/1.72)
The Cubs complete their season series with the Houston Astros this afternoon. Lou Piniella's crew is 10-6 versus Carlos Lee and company this year after Tuesday night's victory.
It is time for Ryan Theriot to get a breather. Theriot has played more games than any other Cub this season and with the roster expanding on Tuesday, Lou Piniella has a shortstop once again on his roster that can spell Theriot. It is time for Piniella to use Andres Blanco and see if he can hit big league pitching for the remainder of the year. While Aaron Miles is not the answer to serve as the Cubs back-up middle infielder next year... Andres Blanco could be.
The Cubs are expected to activate David Patton from the DL today and Piniella mentioned on Tuesday he expects the Cubs roster to be around 32 - 33 players in the next week.
This afternoon it all starts with Ted Lilly and just playing baseball ...
Ted Lilly has quietly become the number one pitcher on Lou Piniella's staff this season. Like Randy Wells, with any kind of run support Lilly would have 13-15 wins at this point of the year ... four of Lilly's eight losses have come on the wrong end of shutouts. Lilly has been stuck on nine wins since July 11. Lilly beat the Redbirds on a beautiful Saturday afternoon back in July, 5-2.
'The Bulldog' has pitched extremely well since returning from the DL on August 17. Lilly is 0-1 in his last three starts with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP.
This afternoon will be Ted Lilly's 11th start of the season at Wrigley. He is 6-1 in the first ten with a 1.92 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. In 142 1/3 innings this year, Lilly has walked just 29 batters ... only eight at Wrigley Field.
Lilly will make his fourth start of the campaign against the Astros today. Lilly is 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Houston has hit five of the 21 home runs allowed by Ted Lilly this season.
- Lance Berkman - 3-for-25 with a home run and a walk
- Geoff Blum - 3-for-12 with a double and 2 walks
- Aaron Boone - 2-for-2 with a double
- Michael Bourn - 1-for-8
- Chris Coste - 0-for-3
- Darin Erstad - 2-for-25 with a double and 2 walks
- Jeff Keppinger - 7-for-22 with a double, a home run and 2 walks
- Carlos Lee - 7-for-32 with 3 doubles, a home run and 4 walks
- Kaz Matsui - 2-for-11 with a triple, a home run and 2 walks
- Jason Michaels - 2-for-7 with a double and 2 walks
- Hunter Pence - 4-for-20 with a double
- Miguel Tejada - 10-for-42 with 3 doubles, a home run and 4 walks
The Cubs will get their second look at Felipe Paulino this afternoon. Paulino has pitched like a rookie this year. At times he can be dominant, at times average and at other times simply mediocre.
Paulino will make his 12th start of the year today ... and his first against the Cubs. Lou Piniella's offense must be patient this afternoon and make him work. In 64 2/3 innings Paulino has walked 22 batters and given up 89 hits with 58 strikeouts. Paulino has the stuff to dominate a lineup, just as the Detroit Tigers (one run on three hits in seven innings with no walks and nine strikeouts on June 27), the key is to simply make him throw a lot of pitches and not allow him to get comfortable on the mound.
The Cubs faced Paulino back on May 7 in Houston. The rookie right-hander last just 2/3 of an inning and gave up four runs on five hits with two walks and a strikeout.
Away from Minute Maid this season, Paulino is 1-4 in seven games, four starts, with a 10.55 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP ... teams have hit a robust .371 against him.
- Mike Fontenot - no official at bat, one walk
- Kosuke Fukudome - 0-for-1
- Micah Hoffpauir - no official at bat, one walk
- Aaron Miles - 1-for-1
- Aramis Ramirez - 1-for-1
- Alfonso Soriano - 1-for-1 with a home run
- Geovany Soto - 0-for-1
- Ryan Theriot - 1-for-1 with a double
Let's Talk Cubs Baseball....
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Good morning, Cub fans.
The fearful leader spoke again, quotes the Sun Times http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/1748157,CST-SPT-cubnt02.article
''I haven't really even thought about [2010]. As long as we're in it, I think along those lines. Even when we were in first place on Aug. 7, I didn't think we'd played our best baseball yet, and then ... we played so poorly we got ourselves so far behind the Cardinals that they're not going to be caught.
''A lot of it's still hard to digest. We're still trying to think, hey, if we have a couple good weeks, you never know.''
Hendry can't really be this simple, can he? He is just playing politician, right? And he's not very good at that either. Because if Mr. Ricketts is reading the papers, which I assume he is, he must be terrified to think that the GM of his shiny...er...rusty new $1B toy is not thinking about the future as close as 7 months away.
Unbelievable. Yes, Jim, it is very hard to digest.
O man, it just get better (or worse, I don't know anymore):
''People are going to be quite foolish if they think, 'Gee, he was up here and didn't do well,' and 'Gee, they talked him out of football,''' Hendry said. ''He's going to be really good. Sometimes it doesn't take much but a little tinker here and tinker there, and I think once he gets his feet on the ground and has a little success as a starter, he might take off.''
Name me one talented young pitcher that was struggling before Hendry or his pitching coaches "tinkered" them into being "really good".
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Name me one talented young pitcher that was struggling before Hendry or his pitching coaches "tinkered" them into being "really good".
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-stole the words right out of my mouth.
Maddux was credited with turning around pitchers like Hill, Marshall, etc., and even helping with Dempster, and even Wuertz. Maddux foolishly recommended Marquis to the Cubs and to Rothschild, thinking that Rothschild could "tinker" with his stuff to turn his career around...well, he did turn it around, but it was with the Rockies and a good pitching coach there that has helped turn around Ubaldo Jimenez's career, and turned Morales into an effective reliever, etc.
Even Dempster's phenomenal season last year wasn't even attributed to anything that Rothschild did. It was credited with Dempster's offseason conditioning and throwing program that he did by himself. You can't even say that Lilly is good because of Rothschild, because as we all know...if you're a pitcher coming over from the AL, your ERA almost instantaneously goes down by half a run or more, and that's precisely what's happened.
Also, as for Hendry's other comments, it just proves what an idiot he is, and how he has no business running a MLB franchise whatsoever.
I'm so tired of his excuses all the time. He bemoans injuries, and lack of production, but does absolutely nothing about it. As for the direction of the organization, I find it absolutely ludicrous that anyone wouldn't have a forecast or plan for the next year, or 5 years out.
When he says, "I haven't even thought of 2010"....hmmmmmmmm.....therein lies the issue with having Hendry at the helm
Guys, I have said this site ad nauseam for the past several years that Hendry had no business running the team, and hardly anyone agreed with me. Now everything is coming to light....
How can you possibly not have a vision or plan for the next year, or even 5 years out. That's absolutely no way to run any organization. You just don't do that. If Hendry planned for 2010, he would've started acquiring pieces like a Josh Fields, who would be a buy low situation.....or taken a flier on a guy like Wily Mo Pena, or even Chris Duncan for added OF depth in the system. If he'd looked toward the future, he would've kicked the tires on a Nate McLouth trade, and NEVER would've peddled Pie essentially for a no talent loser like Gathright, who was older, AND more expensive than what Pie would give you....Pie is now proving how much of an idiot Hendry really is...and like I said before, Pie is NOT Corey Patterson. He always had a higher average and OBP in the minors than Patterson---a telling sign of a player's future effectiveness in the big leagues.
If he was looking to the future, he'd realize that a prospect is worth more than Heilman, who doesn't even figure to be with the team next year. If he was looking towards this season last offseason, he wouldn't have let McGehee, a solid back-up 3B go for nothing when he had several openings on the 40-man roster.
I've heard several GM's, like Williams, Epstein, Cashman, and even Jocketty in his new position, state that they have Plan A, B, and C mapped out before they even enter negotiations with free agents and/or trades. Furthermore, the also have forecasts for the future, and promote guys according to the plans, keeping the Rule 5 and such in mind when doing so.
As for Hendry, this offseason, he traded one of our best pitching prospects for Gregg, AND let another go via Rule 5 (Ceda and Veal). Though Ceda was injured this year, don't you think we could've used both of them as part of a trade for McLouth? How about a trade deadline deal? It blows my mind when I think of Hendry's lack of foresight and planning, and I want him gone as soon as possible.
We will NOT be able to win with him at the helm...and if you read between the lines of Dallas Green's recent comments regarding the state of the Cubs, you'd see that most in baseball feel that Hendry's a moron, and not fit to be the GM of the team. Green stated that when he took over, they had a plan in place, and he raided the Phillies system because he knew it the best, and knew he couldn't get burned. He said before, the team's leadership lacked the baseball acumen necessary to field a winner, and that they changed the culture when he arrived...similar to how Piniella changed it yet again when he arrived. See, Zell had no baseball acumen, neither does Kenney, and Hendry lacks vision. That's a recipe for disaster, especially when the visionary is the manager, and the GM is the one pulling all the strings, and they're not on the same page with each other.
Ever wonder why MacPhail raided our system for Luis Montanez, Scott Moore, Rocky Cherry, Felix Pie, Rich Hill, among others when he took over in Baltimore? It's because he knew our system well, and from the looks of it, he'll be molding Baltimore into a winner shortly. With guys like Wieters, Jones, Reimold, Pie, Aubrey, and more guys coming up in the system to go along with Roberts, their team is headed in the right direction, as it seems to be the common direction most teams (outside of the Cubs) are taking in recent years---going with youth over veterans. Unfortunately for the Cubs, when they hired MacPhail, they didn't realize that he was coming from a small market team. I think the tendency is to overspend on veterans when you suddenly have the cash to do so, because you want a proven commodity, but that is absolutely the WRONG way to go when planning for the future, which is what needed to happen in Chicago when he first arrived. In Baltimore, though it's a large market, due to poor attendance, they're operating on a small market budget right now, which suits him the best.
The reason I mention that, is because if the Cubs want to go in the right direction, they need to identify someone like Pat Gillick, who has taken both small and large market teams, and turned the franchises around, winning World Series in Toronto and Philly along the way. Or perhaps they could look into Schuerholz as a special advisor. Or even approach Ron Schueler formerly of the White Sox (and special assistant to the Cubs in 2003, the last true great season we had). He rebuilt the White Sox farm system, and produced several quality major leaguers Carlos Lee, Ordonez, Joe Crede, Sirotka, Balwin, Wells, Garland (via Cubs), Foulke, Howry, etc. He also served recently in 2006 as special advisor to the Cards organization when they won the World Series, and has recently presided over the turnaround of the Giants organization since he became a scout and evaluates major and minor league players and acquisitions in 2008.
Steve Stone is right, the GM position is no longer an old man's position. You're up late and night, and constantly on the move. It takes a very energetic and smart person to do the job, but having a braintrust like Pat Gillick and Ron Schueler to guide the team right now in transition with a new owner, and help educate Ricketts on what a championship contender should look like and how it should operate, would be the best thing this franchise could possibly do. Gillick and Schueler could then groom the future GM for a few years until they retire.
Neil,
I read your post about Lou's comments Re: September call-ups, and I must say, I was shocked. I never thought I'd hear that coming from Lou, but it is worth noting (and I've posted this before) that when Lou took the Reds to a World Series title, there wasn't a single player in the everyday lineup over the age of 29. In fact, on their bench, only 2 players that played more than 17 games were over the age of 30 (Doran was 34 and Griffey Sr. was 40). In their rotation, only Browning was 30 years old, and in their pen, Rick Mahler (36), was the only other pitcher in his 30's.
Why is that significant? Well, I actually believe that he prefers youth to veterans after examining his managerial record. Sure, his Mariners team that won 116 games in 2001 had a median age around 31-32 years old...but his other Mariners teams that made the playoffs most closely resembled his 1990 Reds team.
I firmly believe that Piniella and Hendry are not even close to being on the same page. Piniella even stated in the past how they needed to get younger, remember that? He went as far as saying that's why he was resting his veterans as much as possible down the stretch, because they tire more easily.
Well, Piniella now has a median age in his everyday lineup between 31-32 years old. He's seen our 30+ year old pitchers in the rotation (Demp and Lilly) already break down this year. And he's already seen the garbage we've brought up for him this year. Let's review the young "talent" that he has to deal with most likely in September:
Hoffpauir- while Hoffpauir showed what he can do, outproducing Bradley early this season, and mostly rode the pine, Piniella was a between a rock and a hard place. The educated guess is that Hendry forced Piniella's hand to play the overpaid players like Soriano and Bradley that didn't belong in a MLB lineup early this year (Soriano still doesn't), and because of that, Hoffpauir's bat went ice cold.
Blanco- he's an EXCELLENT defender, and probably the best on the team, so there's no debate there...but when a team needs offense more than ever, can they really afford to play a light-hitting defensive-minded middle infielder? Wasn't that the complaint about Neifi?!?
Patton- what a joke!!! Any player that has a 5.63 ERA, and simply cannot get MLB hitters out, and has given up nearly as many walks as strikeouts, doesn't belong on a MLB field. This is proof yet again that Hendry's ego has gotten in the way of the team's success this year (wouldn't cut ties with Miles, or Bradley, or Gregg...or even send Heilman packing when he was claimed..or, in this case, wouldn't cut ties with Patton, even though we had better internal candidates than him to begin with)
Berg- decent, 0.00 ERA...but what is 2 IP going to tell you?
Samardzija- like Felix Pie and other highly touted players before him, he's been extremely misused in his career with the organization. He started in relief his first full season at Daytona, then went to the pen, then got promoted to AA even though he had a 4.95 ERA, then he started full-time the next season, and even though he had a 4.86 ERA, he was promoted yet again to AAA where he had lukewarm stats and a 3.13 ERA as starter, then was promoted to the Cubs where he thrived in relief, then he was told to come to camp prepared to be a starter, only to be thrown back to relief where he struggled, then he was called up, and sent down several times, before finishing the season at AAA in their rotation, again with lukewarm peripheral stats and a 3.53 ERA.
Stevens- he started out well, then got absolutely lit up, proving why he wasn't even on the Indians top prospects list despite being Team USA's closer. He's got a decent slider, but his fastball is relatively straight, and so he almost becomes Kevin Gregg Jr. with a fastball in the low 90's without much movement.
Atkins- like Berg, with a 0.00 ERA, but again, what does 2 IP prove?
Caridad- perhaps the only arm I really care about. He really has a live arm, and good command of his pitches. He pitched excellent in long relief for us in Colorado, and left with a 3.68 ERA in 7 IP with 8 K's vs 1 walk...fairly impressive
Scales- poor Bobby Scales...he gets called up because Hendy has his thumb up his ass, and no fallback plan for when ARAM went down with injury, and Aaron Miles' ineffectiveness. He gets in 25 games, and all he does is get 14 hits, 12 runs, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 3 hr, 7 RBI, and a .241 avg and .333 OBP. Aaron Miles? In 62 games, Miles has just 26 hits, 16 runs, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 0 hr, 5 RBI, and a paltry .176 avg, .218 OBP...What pisses me off most about this, is Bobby Scales absolutely deserved a chance after being in the minors his whole career, and to watch Miles suck so bad, and Hendry refusing to cut ties with him, only made me hate Hendry all the more.
Guys that should be up include:
Gaub- 1-1, 0.64 ERA, 28 1/3 IP, 34 K's vs 13 walks at AAA
Parker- 2-1, 2.61 ERA, 41 1/3 IP, 16 saves, 41 K's, 20 walks at AAA
Papelbon- 6-6, 3.53 ERA, 104 2/3 IP, 32 games, 14 starts, 79 K's vs 25 walks. He's almost like a Sean Marshall, but with better pedigree, and he's very deserving of an opportunity. Here's his ERA's in our system: 1.83; 3.11; 2.57; and the 3.53 ERA this season. I'm impressed.
Brad Snyder- .283, .343 OBP, .571 SLG, 64 games, 62 hits, 38 runs, 15 doubles, 3 triples, 14 hr, 42 RBI, 10 SB at AAA (he was injured most of the year)
Tyler Colvin- .289 avg, .336 OBP, .479 SLG, 112 games, 116 hits, 66 runs, 18 doubles, 8 triples, 14 hr, 54 RBI (combined between high A and AA)
James Adduci- .306, .384 OBP, .390 SLG, 127 games, 138 hits, 61 runs, 21 doubles, 4 triples, 3 hr, 47 RBI, 34 SB
*obviously Chris Robinson deserved a call-up, but like Neil said, he's with Team Canada right now, so it's a moot point.
now, as for guys that Piniella was probably referring to...a few might've been on the list above, but I bet he was talking about guys like Kyler Burke, Starlin Castro, Ryan Flaherty, LeMahieu, etc. I think he looks at teams like the White Sox with Beckham and the Rays with Longoria, and he figures that if those guys can do damage in the minors, then why are we holding them back? Especially if they're guys like Snyder, Burke, Flaherty, and LeMahieu, who were all first or second round picks. It's almost like the Cubs are developing their players the old school way, which has long been proven to be the WRONG way to do it...this is where teams move up players a rung at a time, and are very methodical in their promotion techniques, rather than simply elevating them all the way to the majors if they're talented enough. For crying out loud, you know what Burke's line is this season...it's ridiculous:
Burke-.306 avg, .408 OBP, .510 SLG, 127 games, 137 hits, 88 runs, 43 doubles, 3 triples, 14 hr, 85 RBI, 14 SB with 74 walks vs 98 K's. At 21 years old, why are the Cubs aggressively promoting a guy like Starlin Castro all the way to AA, and keeping a guy like Burke at low-A. Furthermore, why did the Cubs promote Vitters, and leave Burke behind, when he was clearly having a stellar season? What about Flaherty?
Flaherty- .278 avg, .343 OBP, .480 SLG, 126 games, 130 hits, 80 runs, 24 doubles, 5 triples, 20 hr, 79 RBI
*most home runs in the Cubs system this year.
How about Rebel Ridling?
Ridling- .310 avg, .355 OBP, .465 SLG, 131 games, 160 hits, 72 runs, 33 doubles, 1 triple, 15 hr, 96 RBI
*leads system in RBI and hits
While I realize that an organization will not destroy any of their affiliates chances at a playoff berth...all you have to do is look at Daytona's roster to realize they had almost no position player talent there to compete with other teams. While I realize Vitters was promoted...aside from Castro---who later got promoted to AA, there wasn't much talent other than maybe Campana and his 50 stolen bases....maybe Guyer...but he couldn't even hack it at AA.
We had guys at Boise that could've been brought up to low-A like Bour, Logan Watkins, Hak Ju Lee, and Jose Valdez, who could've replaced Ridling, Flaherty, LeMahieu, and Burke respectively.
Looking at Jimbo, it doesn't look like he has trouble "digesting" many things.
LOL
I admit I do not study the farm system, but the guys you point to, and your ideas about promotion seem right on. A kid who is flat out raking at 21 years old needs to be promoted. That isn't too young. Longoria is great example. Braun when he was called up. The list is long.
If we believe that Handry's ego drives personnel decisions on the Mother Team, then why not believe he acts based on his ego with the rest of the organization. Why else would he be making comments about how Shark will be a starter next year, deserves the chance, will be real good, etc? Simple, because he gave the ND football stand out $10million dollars to play baseball.
The interesting thing here is that the Cubs are assumed to have a weak farm, talent-wise. I speculate that it's because all these guys languish at low levels so aren't looked at seriously. I mean 21 year old kids that haven't been out of low A are thought to be lifetime minor leaguers. I hate Hendry more every time he opens his mouth. I wish I knew where the Ricketts stood. With JH or Lou? I mean will they ask Lou what he thinks is wrong with the team or will they ask Hendry? Both, but who they listen to? As Aaron and I have speculated all year, Lou has never been given the personnel he wants and conversely is given aged bums and told to play them. It will be an interesting winter...I hope.
My know mantra, in the word's of Lou, We'll see.
Actually, I think Lou has driven a lot of the moves that have been made by Hendry.
Quite frankly, if Lou comes back next year, which I think he will, he's basically a lame duck manager. Because he won't come back in 2011. So he really has no vested interest in developing young talent for the future.
He has 1 more year, then he's going back to Tampa to the rocking chair.
Do you really think he gives a rat's ass about playing some of these young guys for the future ?
I wish he would quit after this year. But I don't think its going to happen
Today's lineup:
Fukudome - CF
Blanco - SS
Lee - 1B
Bradley - RF
Fox - LF
Fontenot - 2B
Baker - 3B
Hill - C
Lilly - P
well, looks like Lou's classic "throw in the towel" sort of lineup
I for one can't figure out why Fuku hasn't been in the lead off spot for the entire month of August. After the break fuku was in leadoff and we were the hottest team in baseball. Then I started seeing the Riot at leadoff and we end up 10 games behind the cards. I don't understand! I like bradley and number 2 though, but blanco is understandable.
I would have liked to have seen Fuld in left, Fox at 3rd, and Baker at 2nd, but oh well.
Here's to the 2nd in a 12 game winning streak. That's right, I haven't woke up yet!
do you need some cold water splashed on your face?!? The same cold water that apparently was splashed on the Cubs' bats all season?!?
LOL. Just let me keep on dreaming, it is alot more fun than this dang season has been.
I don't know what the rest you think, but I'm not a huge Jeff Baker fan. If you want to keep him next year to be utility guy, fine, but please don't let him be starting 2nd baseman. We can do better than that.
He has no speed, marginal power, and average glove. And he strikes out a lot.
We need someone who can run and play some defense. I like Orlando Hudson.
And I know many of you keep harping on moving Riot to 2B, and I don't totally disagree....
But, but, but when was the last time he really played there for any length of time ? Been awhile. I'm not so sure you wouldn't have issues there. 2B and SS are NOT the same.
I like baker. I would be fine with him as our everyday 2b, but I understand your concerns. I like the Riot moving over, simply because of the errors. I can probably count on 2 hands the number of games we've had this year without any errors....and that's just not good baseball. Maybe I just miss the Ryno days, but it seems like our errors are just ridculous this year.
CC, I too am a fan. He has really impressed me so far.
Nick,
You misread what I said.
I don't really like him that much to be starter.
To me, he's ok. But he's not a difference maker in any way, shape or form.
And as Roque said, our defense is not good. We can do better there.
To me, I would love to see them put Fuld in CF and get Orlando Hudson for 2B.
To me that would add speed and defense. This team is way too one-dimensional.
Sorry about that cc, I did misread your post.
On a side note, it is nice seeing Boone in the lineup today after everything he has been through.
If Blanco could just hit major league pitching
boy, how ugly has this season been, that our first hit today comes from our pitcher? We've seen that many times before haven't we? Z's had the first hit a couple times. So has Harden. So has Lilly more than once (again today), and if memory serves me correctly, both Harden and Dempster (our lightest hitting pitcher) have accomplished the feat. It's pretty pathetic when you see that sort of effort out of your everyday lineup when a guy that bats once every 5 days is able to get a hit before your regulars. It's even more hilarious when your "ace" pitcher is outslugging your major offseason acquisition
wow...that stat was very depressing...first time in history we've entered September without a 10 game winner....PA-THE-TIC!!!!!
DLEE!!!!!!
DLEEEEEE!!!!
#27!
Now that was a shut-down inning. Quick, 1-2-3 on just 6 pitches
Baseball has to be the most unpredictable game in the world.
Think about this: If I would have said in ST that Koyie Hill would be starting catcher entering Sept because Soto would suck so bad, you would have thought I was smoking dope or something.
But here we are !!
ugh.
Who are the idiots booing Milton Bradley? You boo a guy for hitting a line drive to center field? Come on. Those are the same guys that give cubs fans a bad name, but normally they are in the bleachers. I can see it now, they have popped collars and chick sunglasses on with spiked hair.
In all fairness, i don't think they are booing the lineout, but rather Milton Bradley because he is Milton Bradley.
You may be correct, but I still find it to be idiotic. Everyone knows he's had a bad year so there is no need to be foolish. It seems like they just want to instigate something and trigger an explosion from Bradley. I hope the Cubs keep him next year--unless they can get Adam Dunn.
Good win!
CUBS WIN!! Only ten more in a row!!
NATION REPRESENT!
CUBS WIN! CUBS WIN!
looks like the league has adjusted to Fox, just as they did with Soto this year (albeit with Soto, it took them longer to figure him out). All you have to do is throw both of them nothing but curveballs down and away, and they'll swing and miss. That's precisely what they were doing to Soto early this year, and one of the many reasons he was struggling (weight, out of shape, and his hand issue).
Why the Cubs staff doesn't bring this to their attention before they go to the plate is beyond me. All you have to tell them is "look curveball all the way," because with both of them (Soto last year at least), they are excellent fastball hitters. It's precisely why Jeff Franceour sucks now...the league figured him out...and now only throws him breaking balls.
Also, I just wanted to examine the rest of this season for everyone (and my predictions with reasoning):
Astros- 2-1 if we hold on
White Sox- 1-0 (most likely win because it's at home, and the White Sox are reeling)
Mets- 2-1 (based on current %)
Pirates- 2-1 (based on current %)
Reds- 2-1 (based on current %)
Brewers- 2-2 (we own a .600 win %, but with the Brewers' bats, and our lack of offense, I think a series tie is reasonable)
Cards- 0-3 (though they hold a .615% against us, so us winning one is within reason, they've been the hottest team in baseball and a sweep is likely)
Brewers- 2-1 (this one I think we win)
Giants- 1-3 (Giants will be playing with a lot on the line, while we won't...Giants win this series easily)
Pirates- 3-1 (we win this series...hopefully)
D'Backs- 3-0 (we sweep this one easily with the D'Backs floundering this year)
=20-14 (2 already have won, and already lost 1 if score holds up today) for a total of 84-77 (that only amounts to 161, so I can't figure it out...but anyway, that's my prediction)
With Atlanta (70), SF (72), and Colorado (73) all at 70+ wins apiece, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where they only win 12 or less of their last 30 games. Even if they finish at 15-15 in their last 30 games, they'd still finish with the following records:
Col: 88-74
SF: 87-75
Atl: 85-77
and we'd still be 3-4 games out in the Wild Card.
The Rockies have 3 games each left against the Giants, Cards, Brewers, and Dodgers. They have swept the Cards and Brewers this year for a combined 7-0 record, but the Dodgers own them with a 3-12 record against them, and they are slightly under the Giants with a 7-8 record against them.
The Giants have 2 remaining against the Phillies (1 tonight and another tomorrow), 3 against the Brewers, 6 against the Dodgers, and 3 against the Rockies. The Giants are 3-2 against the Phillies, 3-3 against the Brewers, 5-7 against the Dodgers, and 8-7 against the Rockies.
The Braves have the easiest road by far with 3 against the Phillies, 3 against the Cards, and 5 (counting tonight) remaining against the Marlins. They play the Nats 7 times, and the Reds, Astros, and Mets in their other games. Against the Phillies and Marlins, they have winning records against both, and are 1-2 against the Cards
Anyway, it's fairly reasonable to assume that the winner of the Wild Card will finish with around 90 wins. To do that, we'd need to pick up 6 games somewhere. That's probably mean picking up 2 of 3 from the Cards, 3 of 4 from the Giants, and sweeping a series from someone else....something I think we've only done 6 times this entire year---the last of which came in July when we swept the Reds, shortly after sweeping the Nats.
I realize that I'm preaching to the choir when I rattle off all of this, because everyone has pretty much agreed that we are out of it...but I just wanted to show how improbable it really is for us to make the playoffs. So, when you hear comments from Piniella and Hendry that we're still in this thing, then you can laugh your ass off, because they have absolutely no clue what they're talking about.
At the end of the telecast, something really struck a chord with me...and that's when Brenly and Kasper mentioned that the pitching staff puts a HUGE amount of pressure on themselves to not give up any runs at all because of our woeful offense. Then, they mention that to Lee in the interview, and he smiled when he said he kidded with Lilly, "that's all you got left in you" after he threw 8 shutout innings against a guy (Paulino) coming in with a 2-6 record, and 6.96 ERA, having given up 89 hits and 13 home runs in just 64 2/3 IP, and we could only muster 4 hits.
I'm sorry, but I know that Lee won the game for us with his bomb, but when you have just 4 hits, one coming from your pitcher, and another coming from your defensive specialist shortstop that had the only other extra base hit in the game, then your team has problems, and there's no joking around, and no laughing about it. And I realize we were missing ARAM, Soriano (chuckle), and Theriot from our everyday lineup, but that's still no excuse.
For once, I'd like Lee or someone else to say after a win like that, "I am embarrassed by our offense. The guy came in giving up nearly 7 runs per game, and we stunk up the joint yet again. It doesn't matter that we won...it's how we won, and we really backed ourselves in that win, not really giving full effort"...just once I'd like to hear something similar coming out of the mouths of the players or coaching staff or even upper management. But we haven't heard anything close to that, have we? In 27 innings, our staff has held the Astros to just 6 runs, while our offense has scored a paltry 9 runs...good enough for 2 runs/game by the opposition and 3 runs/game by our offense. In fact, we are 14-19 in 1 run games. Take into consideration Gregg's 6 blown saves, and that fact, coupled with our offensive ineptitude, and we very easily could have been contending for the division title instead of trying to leapfrog 4 teams for the Wild Card. If Piniella and Hendry made the correct decision to demote Gregg early on, we'd at least have 3 less blown saves at the very least, and if they made the correct decision to install Fox at 3B with ARAM out of the lineup, I think there's a very reasonable chance that we make the playoffs this year....and that's what winning organizations do...it's why having Hendry and Piniella around next season is NOT in the best interest of the organization, because they clearly do NOT do whatever it takes to make the playoffs and bring a championship back home FINALLY!!!!!
Aaron:
So Basically the other teams ahead of us have to go into the tank in order for the cubs to taste October? Yeah, I would have to go along with that. We needed to win 8 out of 10 on this current homestand and and we won 5 out of 9 so far. Not impressive vs the bottom feeders.
You NEVER look for a curveball.
You look fastball and adjust to the curve. If you look curve and get a fastball, you will be grabbing some bench. You won't catch up to it.
You look for the rotation on breaking pitches and adjust.
See ball, hit ball.
You said you played the game ?
:-)
I realize that, and I forgot to put that in my post...an explanation of why I'd do that. So, here it goes:
first AB-3 curveballs, and I believe 3 ugly swings and misses (he also did this in the first game in an AB against Valverde, wasn't it?)
2nd AB- I believe it went like curve, swung and missed, fastball looking, curve outside, then swung at curve outside
3rd AB-ground out, after a couple of ugly swings against curveballs
Now, I realize that you NEVER want to look curveball in any normal situation, but this isn't normal, just as it wasn't normal what Soto was facing earlier this year....but once an opponent finds your weakness, and is clearly exploiting it like they were, then you ABSOLUTELY look curveball, until they throw you 2 fastballs in a row. Why? Because it keeps the other team on their toes. They won't know if you can't hit curveballs, because you smoked one out of the park when you sat on one, so it keeps the other team honest, and the player can then go back to looking fastball all the way, then reacting to the curveball. Hopefully I'm making sense here. It's why my pitching coach in college told me that when he played for the Yankees, he always kept a log of what he threw to an opposing hitter (he'd get the info from the log kept by the pitching coach/bench coach in the dugout), and he'd always switch it up. That way, a player would never know his tendencies. But in Fox's case, 99% of what he's seeing recently have been curveballs, and he's clearly looking fastball all the way, as he's so out in front of the pitches, that he looks ugly up there.
We have two very different younger hitters on our team. Fox is a fastball/slider hitter, while Hoffpauir is a curveball/off-speed hitter. I remember at least 2 of Fox's home runs that were sliders that he ripped into the seats. He was able to do that, because the speed of a slider vs fastball isn't that far off, but a fastball vs curveball usually is -15 mph, which can totally throw a hitter off, and it's precisely why you see guys like Kerry Wood buckle the knees of hitters when they drop one in there. It's also why some guys like Angel Guzman, who have both excellent fastballs and sliders, sometimes struggle with giving up the longball, because they're not taking enough off of their sliders to keep hitters off balance. Marmol has mastered this, because he's elevated his fastball now up to 97-98 mph, whereas his slider is often in the high 80's. Before, his fastball was sitting in the 94-95 mph range, while his slider was around 89. I've seen Guzman's slider clocked as high as 92 mph this year, with his fastball sitting in the 96-97 mph range, and it's recipe for disaster if you're not careful, because the speeds are too similar, and guys can quickly adjust to a slider with similar speed once they've already committed to the fastball. But if you have a difference closer to the -10 to 15 mph range in your breaking pitches, then there's almost know way they can stop swinging once committed, and if they do happen to catch up to the ball, then they usually ground out/pop out weakly.
Agreed! Just once I too would love to hear an honest comment out of someone around there. And not from Milton whining about some perceived prejudice. Lou used to snap and rip players or his entire offense. No more excuses!
Reading your dream quote from Lee, it made me think of Gracey. I really miss him now. He was such a no-nonsense no-bullshit player. I wish someone could bring him back into the fold too.
oh...sorry...just wanted to add that the Nats are looking to shed salary next season. Dunn anyone? Again, I present my dream lineup (it varies but with similar personnel):
Crawford-CF
Hudson-2B
Dunn-LF
ARAM-3B
Chris Davis/Moreland-1B
Brad Snyder/Hoffpauir-RF (Abreu if we're lucky)
Castro-SS
K Hill-C
bench-Torrealba, Ankiel, Fuld, Crosby, and Jeff Baker
traded are: Soto, Fox (value is high), Theriot, Fontenot, Lee, Soriano (even if we have to eat 75% of his salary), Fukudome, and Bradley.
Yes, I think it absolutely can be done...Fukudome, because he has a high OBP, still has some value, especially with his excellent defense and decent speed. Lee has value because of his comeback season. Bradley, also due to his high OBP has some value. With Soriano, we'd have to eat half or more of the remainder, which would be between $45-60 million, but though it'd cost us around $9 million/year to eat his salary, we won't have to watch him patrol our OF for 5 more years, ending at age 38...YIKES!!! With Bradley and Fukudome, we might have to eat $10-12 million on each of their deals, which, still would be worth it. We'd retain enough money to bring Dunn and Crawford on board, sign Hudson, Ankiel, Crosby, and Torrealba.
And because we'd have Crawford, Dunn, and Hudson locked up for 2-3 years (if you can extend Dunn and Crawford), then it'd allow us to trade away the likes of Theriot, Fontenot, Tony Thomas, Spears, Barney, Colvin, Fox, etc. at the upper levels, and still buy time for guys like Flaherty, LeMahieu, Ridling, Burke, and Vitters at the upper levels for a few years, while we protect them on our 40-man roster, and bring them up in case of injury. But you have to factor in ages of our "young guys". Fuld is 28, Hoffpauir, Theriot, and Fontenot or 29, Fox is 26, Soto is 26, etc.
Fox, Soto, Marshall, and someone like Jeff Stevens might be enough to land Crawford.
With Z, Dempster, Lilly, Wells, and Harden (hopefully we re-sign him) likely back in our rotation, that probably means that Marshall and Gorzelanny might be available for trade, especially if Gaub does well in the AZFL and we retain Grabow.
Gorzelanny, Atkins, and Colvin might be enough to land Dunn.
If Hendry is serious about giving Samardzija a shot in the rotation, then perhaps we let Harden walk, or we trade Lilly away (and keep Gorzelanny) to land prospects for a Dunn or Crawford trade.
See, this is what I'm talking about for "vision" and "having a plan"...something Hendry admittedly does NOT have.
I spoke with an Assistant GM once, and he said that they used to have a board of prospects, and a timeline of free agents they had targeted that they wanted to sign in the future. They also had a list of team's top prospects on the board as well to assist them in making trades, and they'd often be guys that they would follow throughout the year if they identified a need in that team, and had a veteran that matched their needs.
As I currently see it, the Mets have a need for a first baseman, and they have 22 yr old 1B Isaac Davis in their system that might interest us. The Angels also have a need for a 1B/DH type for their team, especially since they have several free agents likely to depart like Guerrero, Abreu, Figgins, and Lackey, so they have a need for pitching and offense.
The Giants also have needs, and it's quite possible that we could orchestrate a blockbuster of all blockbuster deals for them. Much has been written about their dissatisfaction with their outfield play. But lost in all of that, has been their dissatisfaction with Renteria and Ishikawa at SS and 1B respectively. Since Ishikawa is 25 years old, perhaps landing someone like Lee might aid in his development.
I propose this trade:
Soriano, Lee, Lilly, and Theriot for Barry Zito and Matt Cain. The Giants would still have Lincecum, Sanchez, and they'd bring up Bumgarner to essentially replace Cain, while Lilly replaces Zito. Perhaps each team includes prospects to balance things out, but I think this is a very fair trade. Here's why:
Soriano and Zito's contracts basically equal out, while Soriano gives them an OF power bat they desperately need. Lee is an upgrade over Ishikawa, and Theriot is an upgrade over Renteria.
It works for the Cubs, because Lee is in the last year of his deal with us, and clearly is not in our future plans. Theriot also has the likes of Barney, Castro, LeMahieu,and Flaherty breathing down his back. Lilly is also in the last year of his deal. The Giants probably believe they're one or two pieces away from winning, and Bruce Bochy loves veterans. I think it's a win-win situation for everyone. I think it'd take a few prospects on our end to pry Cain away, but Lee, Lilly, and Theriot is quite a lot to give up for one player, so they might do it if they think he makes them better. We'd probably have to give them Andrew Cashner to get it done, and I'd do that in a heartbeat.
I dont like that lineup, next year i can see:
Chone Figgins 2B
Carl Crawford SS
Derrek lee 1B
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Kosuke Fukudome CF
Alfonso Soriano LF
Geovany Soto C
Ryan Theriot SS
Pitcher P
Crawford has a club option worth 10 million next year where they cant afford and that is why they trade Kazmir ad they will most likely buy him out for 1.25 million or they will pich it up and try to trade him which is risky in there part.
Propose trade:
Giants get Milton Bradley and 16 million of the 21 million remaning on his contract after this season.
Cubs get Brian wilson
Cheap closer that the Cubs dont have to spend on in the offseason and put towards Crawford.
If Hendry does do that he will have to trade Bradley first before Crawford gets signed.
sorry buddy, but Crawford is a LF/CF, NOT a shortstop
my bad I had theriot in the 2 hole and I switch him and left SS. I meant put Crawford in CF and move Kosuke back to RF. Keep lineup the same.
Heilman and Bradley for Wilson.
Nice win today for the Blue. We wanted more of a look at young guys, and we got our wish with Blanco, Fox and Baker. It looks like Blanco can be sensational with the bat as well as the glove. You just about have to give a big contract to a great glove man who also gets 1/4th of your hits.
Looks like we had better keep our old guys. Today's win was pretty much about DLee and D'Lilly.
I called Tony LaGusa, and he said that he would never bring four or five guys up from A and AA for the last 30 games of the season. He said that he might bring one or two from AA, if he was only bringing up three or four from AAA. He did say that spring training was a much better way to introduce young, top prospects to a big league atmosphere.
As we know, when the Cards' manager speaks, everybody had better be taking notes.
A guy known to have been a contributor to puting the "Windy" in "Windy City" heard some folk complaining about too much redundancy in a lot of commuications. He quickly added his view with, "You can say that again!"