Aaron, baseball is definitely numbers and statistics...a game of chess...etc

it's the greatest game of all...in my opinion.

BUT...numbers don't always tell the story...there is a "likeabilty factor" as well.

Ie...Manny Ramirez is argueably the best hitter in baseball today. Statistically,

speaking...no way Boston should have let him go. But could you ever see him with Boston again?

Once, when I was at Wrigley. Glenallen Hill was playing outfield....a fly ball

was hit in his direction and he appeared

to only make a half-hearted effort at it.

The ball dropped in front of him...and all he did was shrug his shoulders...I

saw this...and couldn't stand him anymore as a player. He hit several more

homers for us that season...but I was really happy to see him go...Albert Belle

was another.

When Carlos Lee was with Milwaukee...all that year I was sure the Cubs would sign him the next year...you know what happened instead.

But in the back of my mind...I also was thinking of the several times he had run ins with White Sox management for not hustling and being lackadaisical in his work habits.

I watched Glenallen Hill let a fly ball

drop in front of him once...lack of effort...and I can't print the words I had for him here....for ever after that

miscue....I was really happy to see him go.

Kerry Woods numbers ended up being just so so. But the electricity and drama

was incredible whenever he took the

mound...he was a warrior.

SO, while you document everything with stats...keep in mind...the human part of it...the heart.

And please let go of Dunn...it's kind of like the Red Sox talking about selling Babe Ruth...it's too late now.

hahah!

Lou Lou Lou

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2009-06-17/cubs-lou-piniella-im-not-dragon

"What do I need to show fire for?" Piniella told the Chicago Tribune. "I'm not a dragon."

My question: why would anyone want to look at anyone who made a good showing in the WBC? There really haven't been any good performances from anyone who played in that. I mean, look how well that great performance from Sidney Ponson for the Netherlands worked out for the Royals.

I think you must be referring to Fukudome, correct?

GOD CAN YOU PLEASE LET THE CUBS WIN? TKS

I'd still like to ask Hendry the tough question of what he saw in Soriano three years ago that the Yankees, Rangers, and Nationals didn't see, and wouldn't commit to.

What went thru his mind to offer an 8 year, no trade contract? I know he'll say that's what the market predicated, but that's really BS.

hindsight's always 20-20....and I don't know what many on here thought back in 2006 when Soriano was signed in the offseason. I know, I for one, was begging for Carlos Lee. I stated at the time that the dude crushes balls at Wrigley, and even stated he'd like to return to Chicago. I thought it would've been a slam dunk. And just like Dunn this offseason, he also wanted to play for the Cubs, and he also has some of his best stats playing at Wrigley, batting well over his career average (around .285 or so).

Hendry didn't take 2 sure bets, and that is precisely why we're in the predicament that we're in. Both of those guys, you could count on for consistency:

Carlos Lee: .290+avg, .370+OBP, 30 hr, 100 RBI

Dunn: .245+avg, .390+OBP, 40 hr, 100 RBI, 100+walks, 150+K's (sure, the avg and K's aren't great, but the past 3 years he's cut down on K's significantly)

The knock on Lee at the time was his defense, and sure, it might not be good, but it's no worse than Soriano. The same could be said of Dunn vs Bradley.

I take offense over defense anyday, unless the difference is so minute, like:

Player A, .260 avg, .320 OBP, 5 hr, 50 RBI, .990 Fielding %

Player B, .270 avg, .350 OBP, 10 hr, 60 RBI, .970 Fielding %

In that case, the difference is negligible...what I'm talking about is, if you have:

Player A: 126 games, .321 avg, .436 OBP, 22 hr, 77 RBI (all career highs in 10 year career), 80 walks, 112 K's

Player B: 158 games, .236 avg, .386 OBP, 40 hr, 100 RBI, 122 walks, 164 K's (all except for avg--which is typically higher, and OBP---also typically higher...were all career averages for Dunn)

*that's Bradley and Dunn last year in case you didn't figure it out

I'm looking at those players, and I'm thinking, "wow, they both struck out about once per game. Dunn gives you 18 more hr, and nearly 30 more RBI, and also more walks, which leads to higher pitch counts. Bradley doesn't even give me a full season, and yet, if you took his numbers, and averaged them out over a full season, they'd still fall short of Dunn's numbers, and the K totals which everyone cries about with Dunn would essentially be even between the two...I'm taking Dunn every damn time, because I know I'm getting run production and power production every year to the tune of 40 hr, 100 RBI. With Bradley, I don't know what I'll get"

See folks, that's what I tell everyone every single offseason. When you look at free agents, you have to consider historical stats, and consistency. If you don't, you're stuck with career year type of players like Lee, Soriano, Bradley, and Dempster....and not that Dempster is awful, because he's not....but I doubt if he'll ever approach his 2008 numbers ever again.

The common theme from the "chronic" optimists, is that they usually will say in defense of Hendry, "well...it's easy to say that now, and question the moves...plus, what's done is done, and we need to move on"

Actually, that's the problem. The stats were right in front of him, and he ignored them. The stats were pointed out by several on here, including myself. And lastly, the reason we don't move on, is because that's what got us here in the first place...all the optimists turned a blind eye to what Hendry was doing. We won 2 division titles in a row....great...awesome...but some of us saw this coming, and knew Hendry was playing with fire...sure enough, he was, and has hand-cuffed us for the next 5 years with the crumbling statue that is Soriano, the next 2 years with Fukudome---our twirling idiot. The next 2 years with Bradley, and next year with the aging Lee...All no-trade clauses, and combined, they'll have $142 million remaining on their deals. By the time they're finished with the deals, Bradley will be an incredibly old 33 (for him), Lee will be 35, Soriano will be 38, and Fukudome will be 35. That's one ugly lineup. Didn't Hendry think this through?

If you use statistics to justify taking Dunn over Bradley, then you need to do the same for Soriano over Lee.

Leading up to 2007, Soriano was statiscally better than Lee. He averaged more 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, SBs and his batting average was only .005 lower than Lee's. Just by stats, one would go with Soriano. If memory serves me right, Lee always wanted to go to Houston anyway and was using the Cubs to create a market for himself.

Don't criticize Hendry for ignoring stats and going with his gut, when you do the same.

Paul K,

You should know better than to challenge me by now...What you fail to realize is the whole point was my argument with Hendry for signing inconsistent players.

So...if you come to the table...be prepared to eat it...here's why:

(I'm starting in 2001 to make all things equal, which is Soriano's first full season)

Soriano

2001: .268 avg, .304 OBP, 34 doubles, 3 triples, 18 hr, 73 RBI, 43 SB, 29 walks, 125 K's

Lee

2001: .269 avg, .321 OBP, 33 doubles, 3 triples, 24 hr, 84, 17 SB, 38 walks, 85 K's

Soriano

2002: .300 avg, .332 OBP, 51 doubles, 2 triples, 39 hr, 102 RBI, 41 SB, and an outrageous 23 walks vs 157 k's (everyone harping on not signing Dunn can eat it right there)

Lee

2002: .264 avg, .359 OBP, 26 doubles, 2 triples, 26 hr, 80 RBI, 1 SB, 75 walks, 73 K's (Carlos Lee had a leg injury and missed 22 games that year)

Soriano

2003: .290 avg, .338 OBP, 36 doubles, 5 triples, 38 hr, 91 RBI, 35 SB, 38 walks, 130 K's

Lee

2003: .291 avg, .331 OBP, 35 doubles, 1 triple, 31 hr, 113 RBI, 18 SB, 37 walks, 91 K's

Soriano

2004: .280 avg, .324 OBP, 32 doubles, 4 triples, 28 hr, 91 RBI, 18 SB, 33 walks, 121 K's

Lee

2004: .305 avg, .366 OBP, 37 doubles, 0 triples, 31 hr, 99 RBI, 11 SB, 54 walks, 86 K's

Soriano

2005: .268 avg, .309 OBP, 43 doubles, 2 triples, 36 hr, 104 RBI, 30 SB, 33 walks, 125 K's

Lee

2005: .265 avg, .324 OBP, 41 doubles, 0 triples, 32 hr, 114 RBI, 13 SB, 57 walks, 87 K's

Soriano

2006: .277 avg, .351 OBP, 41 doubles, 2 triples, 46 hr, 95 RBI, 41 SB, 67 walks, 160 K's

Lee

2006: .300 avg, .355 OBP, 37 doubles, 1 triple, 37 hr, 116 RBI, 19 SB, 58 walks, 65 K's

Soriano

2007: .299 avg, .337 OBP, 42 doubles, 5 triples, 33 hr, 70 RBI, 19 SB, 31 walks, 130 K's

Lee

2007: .303 avg, .354 OBP, 43 doubles, 1 triple, 32 hr, 119 RBI, 10 SB, 53 walks, 63 K's

Soriano

2008: .280 avg, .344 OBP, 27 doubles, 0 triples, 29 hr, 75 RBI, 19 SB, 43 walks, 103 K's

Lee

2008: .314 avg, .368 OBP, 27 doubles, 0 triples, 28 hr, 100 RBI, 4 SB, 37 walks, 49 K's

Soriano

2009: .225 avg, .291 OBP, 14 doubles, 0 triples, 14 hr, 28 RBI, 22 walks, 68 K's

Lee

2009: .312 avg, .365 OBP, 12 doubles, 1 triples, 12 hr, 41 RBI, 2 SB, 21 walks, 20 K's

So, yeah, while Soriano has more power, it sure as hell seems like Lee would've been the safer bet. Lee will hit closer to .300 than Soriano, have a .350-.360 OBP, 30 hr, 100 RBI, and he doesn't strike out much. Soriano, you just never know what you'll get. You have no idea if he'll hit .300 or .268. You have no idea if he'll hit 46 hr, or 18 hr. You have no idea if he'll get 104 RBI, or 73 RBI. Why? Because his numbers vary that greatly from season to season. Okay, you say he hasn't been healthy while he's hear....Well, isn't health a part of consistency too? Isn't that why Bradley's contract was so dangerous to take on?

If you took a perfect triangle on Soriano's numbers...specifically the avg and OBP, you'll see that he peaked around 2005-2006, and everything is downhill therafter, and getting quite ugly. If you were to do the same for Lee...well, you couldn't....because he's consistent. Does that make sense? The same could be done for Derrek Lee's stats too...he's just like Soriano, only with a more consistent avg and OBP.

I don't know how you can include 2007, 2008, and 2009 numbers. Your argument was that Lee was more consistent and should have been signed in 2006. I see no greater consistency from Lee than Soriano prior to 2006.

Also, I purposely didn't include RBIs or Runs scored. They bat in different parts of the batting order which influence one more than the other (Lee has more RBIs, while Soriano has more Runs). That said, Soriano had 73 RBIs in his first full year, then nothing below 91 through 2006. Also keep in mind while leading off in the AL, you are not batting after a pitcher. RBIs should be expected to go down when batting leadoff in the NL.

The Pirates have more wins than the Cubs at this very moment.

The Cubs are in a make or break stretch of their season right now. 26 games in 26 days against their top rivals the Brewers and the Cards. By July 6 the story will be told.

I know this isnt the subject of the article, bu im tired you Cub fans.

Im a huge Cubs fan! But all of you other Cub fans are all scared b/c were losing and not scoring? Well its not gonna last forever. Your all mad b/c the cubs arent on track for 100 wins, how often does the best team in the NL/AL win or succeed in the postseason? look last year the Phillies weren't really looked as a WS candidate, but hey they won it easily.

You gotta look, at our team as of this very day, Sori is obviously hurting (Lou hinted that he may be dropped down), Aramis Ramirez isnt even in the lineup. I know you all will say "how will he make 7 other hitters hit?" With Aram back it will benefit lee, Soto, and Bradley. As well as take pressure off Soriano, Fukudome, and Theriot. Aram is a top 3 3B in MLB and a top 10 hitter in baseball.

Aram will be taking batting practice in the cage in a few days, I've learned that ARAM is 3 weeks away at the least, so were looking at a july 1- 9 return.

All you people saying that we need to unload Sori, Bradley, and Lee are all crazy. If we need some its a bullpen arm (power arm) and/or new utility player with a "pop" aspect.

Look fellow Cub fans, when Aram got hurt i was swearing and hitting things and what not, but then i calmed down and said "alright if the cubs can stay 5 or 6 games out til aram gets back, we'll be fine."

So lets just ride this 1 out, we'll be fine!

I know you'll all argue me!

I don't think too many here would agree with you, but you're welcome to your opinion certainly.

Ramirez, while a sound player, is not the savior. This is a quickly aging team that has no heart, energy or urgency. It has a manager that is "spent"....and has a track record of "playing it out" when things go bad. This is a franchise that doesnt' have a sound farm system/development plan in place. And also, this is a franchise that has a GM that has now handcuffed this organization for years with the foolish and ill-advised moves with these recent trades and long-term, no-trade contracts.

Numerous other organizations have figured out the success to running a positive and sustainable organization. In Cubs-world, we just muddle thru the same old mentality as we saw so many years ago, only this time with a much higher payroll ceiling, which makes today's mess so much more disappointing.

without a doubt Ramirez is the most clutch hitter on the team. He has always been the best hitter on the team. Most dangerous and feared hitter in this lineup. He has been injured before and we have seen this before. Hitting is contagious.

Why the Cubs passed up on Carlos Lee and went for Soriano is beyond me.

Because Hendry was intrigued with Soriano's "speed factor", which we've yet to see. Needless to say, Jim never chatted with Frank Robinson re:Soriano.

The Cubs are not likely to make any significant moves while the Trib owns the team and they work through bankrupcy. I would be suprised if Hendry makes a move on Martinez because he only has pocket change to deal with. Also, Martinez wants to play for a contender...if that is true it would seem the Rays would be a better fit.

And the Cubs' management idiocy continues . . . . hey Hendry, time to bring back Kyle Farnsworth, ain't it? lol

Yes we need some offense but we also have a horrible bullpen aswell. Pedro might be really nice to have coming out of the bullpen. He looked very good in the WBC. His fastball was back up to 92-93ish and had movement back on his pitches. Sounds like a good addition to the bullpen to me.

So what is the news on Aramis? We really need him back BADLY.

Ramirez is supposed to start taking batting practice with a real bat sometime before the Cubs head out on the road ... the reports vary.

Best case that I am reading/hearing is right around the break ... either before against the Cardinals or right after against the Nationals.

Ramirez has said he will go on a minor league rehab for 7-10 days first.

Thanks Neil. Was hoping it wasn't that bad. Hope he makes a huge difference in the second half.

Lets hope Fox gets an extended look

Pedro is the one who said they are in contract talks, why will he lie?

To generate a higher contract from someone else.

Bingo!

The problem wasn't that they traded Mark Derosa. The problem WAS that they didn't have a replacement for him. Sure, Aaron Miles was crammed down our throat as a super versatile guy but he isn't. He is a second baseman by trade, who hits, fields, and runs less than average.

There were viable alternatives like:

Jorge Cantu

Juan Uribe

Ty Wiggington

Jeff Keppinger

Mark Teahan

But no, we get stuck with a Nefi Perez clone. Maybe Jose Macias can make a comeback.

I'm Pissed about this season and I can't wait until it's over!

Don't compare Miles to Neifi: at least Neifi had a period of time where people actually LIKED him.

On a positve note, I really liked what Von Joshua said a short time ago on Sports Central. Pointed out several of the things we've all been seeing. Namely, everyone swinging for the fences and Theriot being pull happy now.

Of course, why would Hendry want to admit his mistake in trading DeRosa in the first place. And stubborn Lou won't take back someone who challenged him as well. This franchise management team is an absolute joke.

Hendry said this today regarding DeRosa, "When Aramis went down sure we wished we still had DeRosa." That is the second time in the last three days I have heard him utter those words.

3rd time the charm?...If Crane Kenny says there's room in the budget for DeRo...and the Cubs are not going after him....due to ego/talent cost or whatever...is there a viable...doable alternative?

Because guess what...with the current contracts...next year is toast also...I don't see us competing again until 2012

at the earliest...and that assumes management makes all the right moves.

You just hit the nail on the head. This team has a small window as it is currently constructed.

I am hoping the Ricketts turn out to be like John Henry and his group in Boston. They pulled all of the right strings and have built one of the best organizations in the game in a short time.

The Ricketts want to build a winner ... here's to hoping they get control soon.

This sale has drug on way, way to long. Two and a half years is just as frustrating as the Cubs' lack of offense.

See JimK's post today during the game and watch the business news tomorrow re:

Ricketts and the sale....it does not sound positive...but I'll withhold further comment until I see something in print.

Yes, Von Joshua is positive...and we can actually see what is happening. Everyone should just restart the seasom tomorrow

at 00000. The only proviso is Soriano has to sit to heal his knee and watch a ton of video...so he can see how bad he looks....Put Miles on the David Patton career path...until we can figure out

who might take him...or make him Soriano's roomate resting and watching.

Suzy...here's a link concerning the sale.

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=301311

btw...Dave Kaplan on WGN radio just said that his sources at the Cubs have told him there is a "ZERO PERCENT CHANCE" of the Cubs reacquring Mark DeRosa.

-7:56 pm 06/17.

Today is just full of good news.

You beat me to it ... thank you. I posted a comment saying basically the same on the game recap.

According to Dave Kaplan, the Cubs will not be trading for Mark DeRosa ... time to move on and he will be a very rich man this winter.

I'm no good at links...BUT...

according to Bruce Levine at ESPN Chicago...in his blog :

"Despite several published reports,

the Cubs ARE NOT close to signing

Pedro Martinez".

According to his source, the Cubs

sent a scout a month ago to look at Pedro...BUT ABSOLUTELY NO NEGOTIATIONS

are going on.

Hopefully that settles that bit of misinformation.

Suzy, I just added Levine's update. Kaplan said he is going to discuss Martinez soon.

why oh why would they want a washed up old pitcher like Pedro ???????

Unreal.

It's soooooooooo Cub.

Please no.

go get Derosa back and put fox in LF, Reed in CF, Hoffy in RF.

and put Koyie Hill behind the plate....Soto really does look like Rick Wilkens.

and let me ask a question about Soto... Juice last year, and now he's off ??

I would not be the least surprised.

I say he will go to the bullpen on a 1 year 2-3 million.

the only type of pitcher that could save the Cubs right now is the re-incarnation of Nolan Ryan....the only way we're going to win games is via shutout...maybe 1 run games (not likely), or no-hitters (though Randy Wells' performance showed that you can have a no-hit type of performance, and still be on the losing end of it all)

Nothing will save this team, except for a fire sale, and even then, you're pretty much cashing in the season with what you'd get in return. (see my community blog post)

Lou's comments after the game were priceless, making idle threats to the team. Lou, wake up old man!!! Your threats haven't worked thus far, because the team knows there's nothing behind it to be afraid of. Even if you sit underperforming players, like Soto earlier this season, it's just for one game...maybe 2 tops. Oooooooooooooo...better watch out now....If I continue to suck ass, I might just end up on the bench for a whole day...Oh no....

LOL...seriously, give me a break. The only thing that will wake this team up is if Fukudome sits on the bench until he learns not to twirl into the ground, Soriano is put on the DL, Bradley's ass is benched until he learns to drive the ball like a true corner OF should be able to do, Soto's ass is sat on the bench until he drops 30 lbs, Fontenot is relegated to bench duty, and Miles is designated for assignment.

Until those moves happen...they're nothing but idle threats. We have NO power threat in our everyday lineup. Do you know how significant that really is? You can overcome 3-4 run deficits if you have it. But you wonder why a majority of us on here say, "Game Over" when the other team puts up 1 or 2 runs, much less a 4 spot. It's because we lack a power threat. I can't even remember the last home run we had...can you? I think it might've been Lee, or Fontenot.

When your "ace" of the rotation is used as a primary power threat (when Hoffpauir is in the field), then you know you have problems.

I almost think that Piniella's sticking it to Hendry in a way, like, "you're the one that gave me this team....deal with it" And the best Hendry could do was fire Perry....LOL...what a colossal moron

All winter...I scratched my head waiting for another deal that made sense...it never happened...and I gave Hendry a wait and see approach.

Well, wait and see turned to total disappointment...and now it is moving to anger at what he and Lou have done here.

If JH signs Pedro without addressing some

of the offensive issues...then I am taking a hiatus as a Cubs fan.

I am not a fairweather fan...40 plus years of Cubdom. But give me a break...

Seems to me offense is our let down right now. Peavy out wouldn't this be like brining in a "Maddox type" Don't think this one works for us.