Rambling without a clue about this Cubs team
It has been awhile since I have shared my inner-most thoughts and general stream of consciousness about the Cubs. So, here we go.
- Pedro Martinez. Seriously? Pedro blanking Martinez
- Yes, that is what is going to solve this team's problems ... Pedro Martinez
- Wow
- While I don't like a lot of things about this team, I do like Andres Blanco playing 2B over Aaron Miles. There is no reason this should stop. Blanco is sick defensively and at .250 is blowing Miles away offensively
- What a feeling fans get during come-from-behind victories and walk-off wins
- Now, just imagine where this team would be without their performance last Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
- Think about that ...
- I am praying for Ryan Dempster and his family. I wish his daughter the speediest of recoveries
- Remember when the Twins drafted Joe Mauer over Mark Prior because they didn't think they could sign Prior. Idiots.
- Reed Johnson should be playing every day. I don't care about salaries or who makes how much. That should not matter when filling out a lineup card.
- So far, Jake Fox has done nothing worse at 3B than Mike Fontenot from a defensive standpoint ... so ... um ... you see where I am going
- Obviously, my feelings about Fox are not anything most people have been saying. I am just saying as well.
- Could you imagine how many wins Randy Wells and Ted Lilly would have with an average offense? Heck, even with a slightly below-average offense. This is just a joke.
- Again, I know. I just stated the obvious. I am sorry.
- Sometimes, I would rather watch "I'm a celebrity, get me out of here" than a Cubs game. And you know what ... I am not sure what would be more laughable.
- I wonder if Lou even hesitated when filling out the lineup card last night in Detroit as to whether or not to list Z at the DH. I would not be shocked if it went through his mind.
- I am not saying it would have been the right move. I am just saying, I wonder.
- Oh, and while we are talking about it. The DH is just terrible.
- See the theme here ... again, this is me being the master of the obvious. Everyone hates the DH.
- Manny Ramirez should not be allowed rehab. That is an absolute joke. Ridiculous. It's totally, definitely ridiculous.
- It's about time to start showing Derrek Lee some love. Okay, folks. If we get down on bad play, we have to acknowledge good play. And Cubs fans are very good about that.
- Hey, Milton. Read the bullet point above. Please, just read it.
- I am an optimist. A big one, in fact. The Fukudome experiment is nearing that point in time where a decision must be made. Great defender, good baserunner. Sounds like a good utility guy off the bench.
- And, I just watched Captain Clutch serve up another walk-off homerun.
- This team solves one problem, temporarily, and an old problem rears its ugly head. Aaron Heilman for closer anyone?
- Okay, I don't mean that. I really don't mean that. But seriously, what can this team do?
- Wait ... can't Dempster close?
- And ... I am spent.
Feel free to contact me at brian@chicagocubsonline.com and until next time ...
Stay Classy Cubs Fans
I have eatin some crow lately. I am a DLee fan, but about a month ago I was riding him pretty hard, sorry Lee. Now wouldn't it be great to have Soriano go on one of his hot streaks and actaully have TWO hot bats in the lineup at the same time!
I know it won't happen, but I would love to see a lineup like this tonight.
Soriano - LF
Theriot- SS
Bradley - RF
DLee- 1st
Fox - 3rd
HoffPower - DH
Dome - CF
Hill - C (unless Soto's hand is okay)
Blanco - 2nd
And KEEP FOX at third even when we go back to Normal NL baseball!! There is absolutely NO reason he should not be in lineup.
Not a bad lineup, there is a good chance.
I think Soto will play today but not tomorrow because of a night game then day game.
You could see that but I expect the same lineup as yesterday bgut I do like the lineup.
I really dont think Fontenot will be the starter after the trade deadline.
LINEUP for todays game
DOME - CF
THE Riot - SS
Johnson - LF
Lee - 1B
Soriano - DH
Fox - C
Hoffpauir - RF
Fontenot -2B
Miles - 3B
Bradley will be in Soriano will be first Miles wont be in Johmson still has back stiffness and wont be in.
Your ramblings, Brian, are right on to me both in terms of emotion and criticising performance. (I hope that doesn't tarnish your image.)
I suggest that the clues to the season will include JH and Lou deciding (last October) that we needed a productive left handed bat and we needed to resign D. In the face of budget constraints, some productive pieces were moved (for less productive pieces) and a new bat was hired.
A second clue will be that management knew the 2008 was a "best chance" situation and that changes could be problematical. But after two post-season washouts, they rolled the dice (and most of us wanted changes made). They acted in the first third of the post season, and the terrible irony is that, had they been indecisive, hand wringers, they would have seen Abreu and Hudson fall to them.
The most important clue (if we don't see a reversal of form) will be that "Big People" Soriano and Bradley badly underachieved and we lost Aram's bat for a large chunk of the season. No contender can overcome 3/4ths of it's 3 to 6 bats falling way below expectations. It is still not too late for the Big People to carry the team (as was expected), but the fat lady is getting ready to sing.
Nick....I like your lineup, but I would switch Micah Money and Bradley. On another page, I wonder who would not show up to cheer the team bus after last night's devestating loss. In my view, they would lose some credibility as fans. That doesn't preclude being more than angry with Gregg.
What team is the Boise Hawks? I know it is the Cubs but is it a minor league team?
Thanks
never mind they are the Class A Team.
no, they're not "class A" technically. They are short season. The Cubs, along with most every other team essentially have 3 "short season" teams (if you want to call it that) in the Boise Hawks, AZL Cubs (Arizona Rookie League), and if you want to got that far....the Extended Spring Training Cubs are technically "short season" too.
We've discussed this before on here. Usually, the high school draft picks, and a lot of players selected in the lower rounds will report to the Arizona Rookie League first. If you're a highly touted college junior, or a senior that was drafted higher, then you most likely start at Boise. From there, they see how you're doing. If you're crushing the ball as a hitter, or dominating as a pitcher, then they bring you along to Low-A Peoria in most cases, but a lot of this depends on roster limits. If Boise is full (I think each short season team can carry 35 players if I'm not mistaken), then you either stay with the Arizona team, or they move you directly to Peoria...sometimes, it's the luck of the draw in that way, just as a roster filler of sorts.
Adding a little, Waldo. There are a couple of short-season leagues and the Northwest League, which includes Boise, is one of them. They don't start play until the last week in June and end (I think) about mid-September. The teams are largely made up of recent signees who are judged, after the extended spring training period, ready for their "first promotion". The rest stay in Mesa and play for the Arizona Cubs.
In part because these players are mostly young and may be away from home for the first time, Boise families "adopt" most of these players--providing them lodging, some meals and "family" support. I'm not sure that most observers don't call the league "Short Season" rather than A. Peoria is our Low A team and Daytona is our High A team.
I wish Stevie Ire would come pick up Gregg and Heilman
in his trailer home and keep riding til October.
Good ramblings....I agree. Dlee sorry keep it
up.
Soriano and his ridiculous 8 year contract have overshadowed my thinking of this team since December...
It will take a lot of creativity for us to get out from underneath this underperforming ,ahem ,"asset".
When Hendry signed him...both Hendry and the Tribune figured they would not be around at the end of the contract.
SO, right at the top, as prospective buyer...complying with all the complexities and structure the Tribune
Co. is demanding and frustrating.
To cut through the tape...I make it simple...I'll comply with your dirty work....BUT you, Sam Zell...either devalue the team by the size of Soriano's
contract...or you as a separate entity
take responsibility for Soriano's contract.
Otherwise, we have to start over and reevaluate the Cubs viability as a franchise...carrying roughly $30 million
per year (Soriano/Bradley)...You Sam Zell, solve this problem before the sale closes...or assume full financial obligation of at least Soriano's contract...to close the sale.
I am a big fan of Lou and always have been, but he really really needs to take a lesson out of Jim Leylands book. Ordonez is hitting .271 and Leyland benches him indefinitely for lack of production. We have FOUR starters hitting under .250 and the only thing Lou does is make threats about changing things, but continues to run out the same lineup.
Is there anyone else out there who can't stand it when Carlos Marmol goes in the game? The guy sucks! He walks a batter every inning or hits them. For a relief pitcher this is unacceptable. His slider barely breaks and his fastball certainly is not overpowering. Why does Pinella persist in putting him in? We have other pitchers in the bullpin who can do a much better job. Can his (Carlos Marmol)presence on the Cubs team be justified? We need to get rid of this bum. Someone please agree with me and comment.
Rocky, it's strange this year...because he was "lights out" for the past 2 years.
But he still has the stuff...he can walk 2 guys and then strike out the side.
I like Marmol...but not his walks.
Talk about bad decisions and bad luck but to add insult to injury how about Casey Mcgehee taking over 3rd @ Milwakee? I'm not sure who's to blame on this one but it is another example of talent financed by our farm that we give up for nothing. I know it seemed we would not need him but his .352avg and his .413 OBP with solid defense at third could not hurt us right now. Fox has been better defensively than I expected. Lets see if he gets more playing time!
I mentioned this before, because as Hendry and Piniella stated prior to the release of McGehee, they needed to make changes. It seems like trading DeRosa was in the back of their minds then, so it was even more puzzling to get rid of a versatile player like McGehee, who I believe also can play catcher. I just don't get it. I didn't get it then, and I don't get it now. I think I even commented at the time that it didn't make a whole lot of sense.
Isn't it apparent now that Hendry (along, I guess, with Piniella's compliance), misjudged personnel so badly that he dealt a body blow to this year's Cubs that is too lethal to overcome? Several of your postings, including Aaron's continued astute analysis, enumerate the mistakes so blatant that they defy explanation. All we will ever get from Hendry is rationalizations..but the "bottom line" is his moves were WRONG and he should be made accountable!
From the getgo...when we signed Gathright last season...the whole off season did not make a ton of sense to me...Oh, I understood Bradley...and Hendry's hope...but I had the feeling going into spring training that a couple of other things were supposed to happen
that never did.
I wonder if at the pivotal moment. Hendry's whole agenda got screwed up
when Peavy dropped in his lap...and messed his thought process for a month
while he pursued that.
Going in...he stated a priority was a
left handed reliever...and just before spring training he stated he wanted a backup at third.
I wonder if he stopped mid-stream in
anticipation of the never materializing
sale?
i liked McGehee also....but things like that happen in baseball...It would not seem so glaring if Hendry had a replacement ready....and if we did...then why would we need him?
The bullpen also seemed like an afterthought this off season...an that simply is not like Hendry...ESPN Chicago
.com did a piece on that today...as perhaps the greatest failure of the offseason.
Puzzeling.
I remember when you called it....Me the positive guy was expecting the right move after all the offseason mess and gues what? still waiting.
What do you think of Harden as the closer? We will not win if the bullpenn depends on guys like Heilman and Gregg period.
Agustin, They won't make Harden a closer this season...he's been a starter too long...although moving into relief might
prolong his career...but he would have to start on that path in spring training.
Who knows...he might be the next Dennis Eckersley...but not this year....Guzman or Marmol each could close...I like Guzman better...doesn't walk as many (this year).
I like the Harden for closer move...but given where we're at in the season, and the fact he's never pitched back to back before (which is VERY different)...I just don't see this move happening, though it totally makes sense (a la Kerry Wood and John Smoltz). Both Wood and Smoltz seemed to be finished with their shoulder injuries, but switching to relief has really prolonged both their careers, and they've had good success, though Smoltz has switched back...and what do you know...he got injured again...LOL...some guys just don't get it.
Pitching in relief actually builds arm strength. Gearing up in the pen, even if you don't come in, still keeps your arm in shape, and it certainly help velocity. Look at Wood, who was throwing 92-93 when he came back from injury as a starter. Then, they switched him to relief, and he's throwing 99 mph. Ditto Dempster. Dempster sat in same range, and was throwing 96-97 mph in relief. Guzman's the same way...I could go on and on. Point is, Harden is throwing 88-94 mph right now, with an average probably around 91 mph. If he switched to relief, I bet he'd consistently be around 97-99 mph, and with his wicked change-ups, he'd be a force to be reckoned with in the pen.
I'm shocked the Cubs didn't try this with him in the offseason, or at least approach him about it. But now it's too late, and I guarantee some team will be willing to pay him to be a starter in the offseason around $8-9 million, which I would never do for him right now.
I've told the story before about my switch from starter to closer increased my velocity by 5-7 mph, where I was throwing in the mid to upper 80's consistently, occasionally touching 93 (only when I needed it), then as closer, I was always in the 92-93 mph range, consistently. It made a HUGE difference, and I no longer had to rely on deception and off-speed pitches to strike guys out...I could just blow it by them.
I think Harden can most certainly be the same way. All of his pitches right now that he's elevating (and as a strike out pitcher, he elevates a LOT of pitches) are getting absolutely hammered, because they're coming in belt or letter high at 90-91 mph. If he's throwing 95 and above, those are most likely blown by the hitters for strike three.
I need to find the article in Sports Illustrated I read a number of years ago. It basically described how fast is really "fast", and used Pujols as an example, with this scientific experiment, etc. Anyway, from what I recall, it was saying that if a MLB pitcher is throwing 94 mph and below without much movement, the likelihood that a batter can switch gears mid-delivery, and still compensate for change of speed intensifies, but if you add just 1 mph on, making 95 mph and above, the batter essentially has no chance, and he must start his bat sooner. We saw this last night with Lee at the plate. If you looked at his hit of Zumaya, he started his swing before the pitch had even been delivered, and you saw the result of that, where you immediately thought he crushed it, and it ended up being a bloop single, because he hit it off the end of the bat. If you've studied swings, and physics, you'd understand how that happened.
As for Hoffpauir, he couldn't catch up to the upper 90's cheese, and had Zumaya thrown it, he would've whiffed. If he'd been in the 94-95 mph range, he would've been behind the pitch, but got EXTREMELY lucky when it was a changeup, because he swing was too long, which left the barrel of the bat more exposed, and allowed him to crush the changeup. Make sense? Anyway, point is, that's why I keep harping on closer's either needing sick control and changeups, or 95 mph+ fastballs to compliment their other pitches, which Gregg has neither a good fastball, nor good control of his other pitches.
A case in point is Mike MacDougal. He had 97 mph+ cheese, yet kept messing with his breaking stuff, which is why he was let go by the Royals and White Sox, then the Nats pitching coach tells him to trust his fastball, and there you go---he's more successful. Same thing with Aardsma. You guys remember him, right? Remember how he'd throw 99 mph, then try to come back with sliders. He got crushed. Brenly talked about that with Zumaya, about how he was flabbergasted that he was blowing it by all our guys, then got cute with a changeup. Kyle Farnsworth is another guy like that. Those guys tend to be "throwers" rather than "pitchers." You have to be smart. If a guy swings right through 2 straight fastballs, and is way behind, you don't help him out by throwing a slower pitch.
That's what I always told our pitchers AND catchers, especially. Catchers have a great read on whether or not a batter is late on pitches, or ahead of them. If he's ahead, that means he's cheating, then you throw an offspeed pitch, but if he's behind, you keep throwing fastballs. The tendency for a lot of young pitchers is to want to make guys look ugly at the plate. You want to have them swing and miss on your fastball, then topple over the plate while their knees buckle on your breaking pitches. However, that might work in high school or Little League, but it won't work in the pros.
If you saw the look on Bradley's face after he struck out on a 104 mph fastball, you'd understand that being "cute" with batters is never good...just trust your stuff. Now, Marmol has a devastating slider, along with a 95 mph fastball...he has to get cute with his breaking pitches. But upper 90's...forget about it.
That's why I was sooooooooooooooooooooo livid when Hendry traded away Ceda, who throws 100 mph for Gregg, who just blew 9 saves in 2008, and throws a max of 94. That's a BIG difference folks.
I hate Hendry....hate him, hate him, hate him...for destroying our summer, and driving this team into the ground
Hey Neil could you make an article of past players with shoulder injuries and there stats following there DL stint.
Jon Heyman said the Cubs wasnt to see how Aramis plays when he gets back, and how is production will be. It doesnt look like the Cubs have confidence in him or lack there of.
Phil, I will look into that ... and for the record no one will know how is shoulder will respond until Friday. Reports have suggested Ramirez will take live batting practice then.
I have been saying since he went down that Hendry needed to find a solution to the problem at third. The Cubs cannot gamble the remainder of their season on him coming back healthy.
just FYI on who the Cubs have signed thus far with a site for it:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=5065
Also, Randy Bush came out and said the Cubs won't do anything until ARAM gets back....LOL....what colossal morons Bush and Hendry are....
EARTH TO CUBS MANAGEMENT: "YOUR OFFENSE IS BROKEN...IT WILL NOT FIX ITSELF...YOU MUST GET OFF YOUR ASS, AND ACTUALLY DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT LIKE OTHER BIG MARKET TEAMS WOULD DO"
unbelievable. I can't stand this team's upper management, and haven't for years. The Tribune sucked the life out of the team, and now Zell is doing the same, because he won't fire Hendry, nor does he have the power to do so right now, and is holding up the progress of the team.
Make no mistake about it...the new owner will come in, and see all these no-trade clauses Hendry orchestrated, and the ridiculous contracts, and can him almost immediately....the only way he makes it, is if this team makes the playoffs----which it WON'T in its current state, or if the sale doesn't take place...then, obviously he makes it through.
Aaron, Bush's statement does not surprise me.
According to David Kaplan last week...The Cubs may have only 3-4 million
in "wiggle room" for midseason acquisition...without an owner.
Everything Hendry has fired in his sixshooter this year has turned into blanks....and now he only has a half
bullet to shoot...If I were him...I'd be scared of another blank as my final move.
And so I would wait...Same thing the Mets are doing...What if Hendry...tried to bring in a lefty reliever...and it turned out ARAM was totally ineffective?
this it bull we need to do somthing i say have a team meeting and say WE as a team are not showing up from here on out if you dont produce guess where youll be the next day ON THE BENCH OR GONE everyones expendable we are here for a world series do we look like a team that can do that right now? NO SO EVERYONE YOUR JOBS ARE ON THE LINE.
Is Fox really playing catcher tonight? Thought his D was so bad that he was moved from there? I wonder if Soto goes on the DL, he looked like he was in pain after his last swing of the game before he was taken out.
Suzy...I share your pain over Soriano's 8 year contract, but I suspect you are making too much out of it as far as the Ricketts are concerned. I think the Ricketts are seeing future revenue and network issues, and maybe some serious acceleration of interest costs with the inflationary bias now in the economy.
In 1996, the Trib did open the checkbook and did get into the superstar sweepstakes with the associated outlandish contracts. Team sale value had to be part of it. While there were alternatives in 1996 that have turned out better, nearly everyone in baseball said something like, "The Cubs landed the biggest star available!" They also re-signed Aram and added Lilly, etc.
The open checkbook did result in two division titles. But some important negatives too as we all know. We didn't win it all, and we are hobbled in making changes. You have said and I have too, that 2110 and 2111 likely become "re-build" rather than "re-tool" years if we fall back this year.
More often than not, paying and/or making the market in the high risk, superstar arena has painful outcomes-- somewhere during the contract term. Think Wells in Toronto, Zito in San Fran, Soriano and others. Even though they are younger, Sabathia and Teixeira will likely have a couple of down years--which would scuttle the chances of most teams. The Yankees have the dollars to take disappointments in stride.
I'm not sure the Ricketts will buy the team. Maybe it's 55-60% they will. If they do, I think they will run it more like the Cardinals and Braves rather than the Red Sox and Mets. (Remember they are different teams post Busch and Turner.) We've had a shot at the $130-$140 mil payrolls, and we could be looking at $100-110 mil going forward. With the farm system getting stronger, that could be interesting.
JimK,
I'm not sure if you know or not, but since we both seem to like to research the Cubs, I was wondering if you knew about the other potential owners of the Cubs. Who else made the final cut? Additionally, what are your thoughts on those owners? I recently heard some dude from New York with ties to Chicago was the runner-up, but I knew nothing about him.
At this point, I doubt the sale goes through. Furthermore, I doubt it goes through with the next one either. The reason is simple...The Cubs have a pre-arranged below market media deal with WGN, they have an aging stadium that needs immediate repairs that already has less seating than I believe every stadium but Boston. Couple that with the current ridiculous contracts that are back-loaded, and I think creditors will force Zell to bankruptcy with the Cubs, in which case the court decides the winner, and the process drags on even longer.
I am very concerned about the direction of this franchise, and make NO mistake...Hendry most surely has driven this franchise into the ground:
8 yrs $136 million to Soriano
*5 yrs now approx. $90 million left
4 yrs $52 million to Dempster
3 yrs $30 million to Bradley
3 yrs $36 million left to Fukudome (including this year)
2 yrs $5.5 million to Miles (incl this year)
2 yrs left and $26 million to Lee (incl this year)
In the life of these contracts....they're HORRIBLE. Every last one of them was signed in their 30's. To give a Sabathia, or Teixeira, or Dunn that kind of money would make sense....because they're still in their 20's, and have a lot of "life" left in them for their contracts, but when you get maybe one productive year out of those players you signed in their 30's....you're absolutely ruining the franchise, because not only do all of them have no trades, but no team in their right mind would even trade for them unless we ate 50-75% of their contracts...and even then, we'd have to take on an equally as bad contract (see Jason Marquis for Vizcaino trade as example).
When Hendry signed Marquis for 3 yrs, $21 million, almost everyone in the country...Cubs fans included thought it was a HORRIBLE deal for a 5th starter. You generally save that spot for a rookie at league minimum, and we had Marshall for that spot, among others. Marquis failed with 2 of the best pitching coaches in the game....what the hell was Hendry expecting?
Similarly, Bradley has been with 7 different teams now in 10 seasons. You'd think that if teams valued him so much, why would they let him go. Was Hendry that arrogant to think it'd be any different with us?!? This coming from a player that was with the Expos, Indians, Padres, A's, and Rangers----all small market teams....and the Dodgers (who hardly play under a microscope like a Boston, NY or Chicago market.
Similarly, Gregg couldn't get it done in a low pressure situation in Florida...nor could he get it done with the Angels. What did Hendry see in that guy to trade his best pitching prospect (at the time) for a loser like Gregg?
As for Soriano, he was with 4 different teams in 5 years (counting his signing with the Cubs as a free agent). The Nats weren't willing to give him a big contract, and he had a 40-40 season. What made Hendry go above and beyond for nothing more than a .285 hitter with a .330 OBP that had but 2 seasons of 8 prior ones with 100 RBI. It was even worse than the Vernon Wells contract. At least Wells was 27 at the time he signed his big contract, and had 3 seasons over 100 RBI.
I've lamented before how Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn, and Hudson would have been safer signings than Soriano, Bradley, and Miles respectively.
I've stated countless times how historical stats matter, and you simply cannot ignore them when committing a HUGE amount of money to a player.
On a side note, at 27 years old, and with Reed Johnson ailing, along with Soriano and Fukudome scuffling...I think the Cubs should look into signing Wily Mo Pena. Yes, I know he's struggled recently, but I think Von Joshua could make something out of this kid. He's got sick power, and I know the Cubs had interest in him in the past while he was still with the Reds. He was released by the Mets...and like Wilson Betemit over Miles...I think he'd be an upgrade for us, considering we need power desperately.
Aaron,
Using the same logic, Dunn was not wanted by all other teams in baseball, so he would be a bad signing. He has played on 3 teams in the past year. 2 of them didn't want him and he signed with the third because that was his only option.
Washington did try to re-sign Soriano. Their offer was just blown away by the Cubs. If I remembr correctly, the Phillies were also in the bidding for him.
You are consistently misleading with your numbers. Soriano bats leadoff and is not expected to have 100 RBIs. I've already shown in another post how the decision of Soriano over Carlos Lee made sense at the time (based on stats pre-2007).
Paulk,
LOL...didn't I warn you the other day about debating with me....You best do your research buddy.
Soriano has 762 games batting leadoff, and around 500 games elsewhere (507 to be exact), the most of which being 3rd (154) and 5th (148). Fact is, he can't produce that well anywhere else, so don't give me the crap of, "well, he has less opportunities), because I just showed you that he indeed has experienced quite a bit of opportunities in other spots in the lineup without much results. His best RBI numbers (relative to games played) is actually batting 5th. 148 games, 583 AB's, 34 hr, 107 RBI, 31 walks, 111 K's, .268 avg, .312 OBP, .513 SLG.
Additionally, the other day I presented a season by season analysis of why Carlos Lee was the better choice, unless you were going purely off stolen bases, in which case Soriano beat him by an average of about 17 (Lee) vs 35 (Soriano). I proved that based on avg, OBP, hr, RBI, walks, and K's, that Lee was by far the better choice.
So, again, I'm no so sure how I'm being "misleading" as you call me when I present the facts. I even showed Dunn's facts vs Bradley...even the poor K stats, along with defense. Do you understand this isn't my first time around the block. I do research as a hobby. Call me a crazy fan...I like to think of myself as an informed fan
Aaron gets to fly the "W" flag today.
I again say that Lee's numbers were no better or more consistent leading up to 2007. Your use of 2007-2009 numbers are irrelevent because they were not available for one to make a decision. The fact that he played 60% if his games at lead off is relevant. You didn't compare runs scored which favors Soriano.
I was applying your own logic to point out why Dunn would be a bad signing. No one else wanted him so the Cubs would be foolish to sign him. I never mentioned Bradley being a better signing.
...which makes your argument even worse for Soriano, as he's batted lead-off almost entirely since becoming a Cub.
If you factor that in, then he has played less games batting lead-off, 125 games in 2007, and 105 games in 2008, 62 thus far in 2009:
2007: 33 hr, 69 RBI, .308 avg, .345 OBP
2008: 29 hr, 75 RBI, .287 avg, .350 OBP
2009: 14 hr, 30 RBI, .227 avg, .294 OBP
...which means he had at the point of signing, he had:
470 games, 121 hr, 281 RBI in the lead-off spot...over a 162 game season, that roughly equates to 40 hr, 93 RBI out of the lead-off spot...which is phenomenal for a lead-off hitter...and actually, even including the past 3 years, he's still at about 39 hr, 91 RBI (just FYI)....
The problem is, a leadoff hitter sets the table for everyone else. If you're not getting on base consistently, nobody can drive you in, and since you suck at every other spot in the lineup (certainly NOT worth $18 million/year), then your value to the team is limited...that was my point. Carlos Lee was a legitimate middle of the order bat. A Kenny Lofton or Juan Pierre would've been FAR better at the top. How often do you see your 7-9 hitters on base anyhow? Not very often...last year was an exception. So, though he doesn't lead off innings, he's still not going to get many RBI opportunities, and when he does...he's proven that he can't handle the pressure, whereas Carlos Lee came right out and said, "I seem to concentrate even more when runners are on base"
Soriano w/ RISP: .250 avg, .325 OBP, 53 hr, 445 RBI, 124 walks, 265 K's
Lee w/ RISP: .302 avg, .364 OBP, 84 hr, 756 RBI, 187 walks, 232 K's
Aramis Ramirez w/ RISP: .298 avg, .372 OBP, 74 hr, 632 RBI, 168 walks, 194 K's
Dunn w/ RISP: .226 avg, .416 OBP, 70 hr, 423 RBI, 333 walks, 352 K's
*what this tells me is with his 70 hr, Dunn was on some pretty crappy teams that maybe had 1 guy on base, while Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano have all been on good teams with more runners on base. Imagine if more of his teammates were on base...then you get an idea of why I liked Dunn so much for this team...combined with his high walk totals, if you put him in front of ARAM...My gosh, ARAM might have 160 RBI on the season.
Anyway, when you come to the table, come with facts, other than the fact you are very subjective in your disagreements with me, basing mostly on your feelings about my postings in general, rather than content. I just laid everything on the table for you to see...
We all think ARAM is clutch...Carlos Lee is even more clutch....That says it all right there.
I have no problem with you or your posts. I'm just pointing out the flaws in your analysis and that just because you post your research and stats, it doesn't make it correct.
I can't say much about the relevance of the RISP stats you posted without knowing the full picture. Are these all stats prior to 2007 (when the GM had to make a decision)? How many at bats are we talking about per player? As you stated, how many baserunners are on base during these at bats. If you want to use stats, you need to account for all these variables to make your findings significant. Otherwise you're just throwing out numbers.
I address only the Soriano signing, Paul.
Yes, there was competition for Soriano.
2)Coming off the Cubs 67 win season...the Cubs were going to overpay.
BUT 8 years to a 31 year old player (at the time), was just not good baseball sense...and while Hendrey was never the brightest...he is a baseball lifer...and should have known better.
Even on PED's at age 38...Sosa was only a shadow of himself. If this is Soriano at 33/34...what hope of any production out of him in the next FIVE years?
Aaron,
Just for the record, Wrigley holds about 41,000 people. Don't forget that the expanded bleachers added about 2,000 seats, which is in line with most other parks. In fact, it holds more than the "Cell" by about 500. Most parks are between 40k-45k these days, so its a myth to suggest the seating capacity is smaller than most.
I have a rambling for you.
You know what is a mind-blowing stat to me ? Here we are about 40% of the way through the season and Bradley has 16 RBI, while batting 3rd or 4th every night !!!! 16 !!!! So he's basically on a pace for about 35 to 40 RBI hitting in the middle of the lineup. That is absolutely unreal to me. Pathetic.
You couldn't be that bad even if you were trying to be that bad.
Put it this way, Theriot and Fontenot, both have 26. And they are singles hitters battting at the top or bottom of teh lineup each day.
Or think about this, Jake Fox has 5 in 26 AB's !! Almost 1/3 the RBI's that Milty has...in 26 AB's. Wow.
I am sure glad we dumped Dero for this guy. UGGHHHHH !!
What a disaster he has been.
Jim,
It was a "what if" moment?...
If he's not producing. You can't trade him. WHAT IF Zell still had to pay him his 18 million per year after the deal...whoever the buyer is.
I, like you, am not sure Ricketts will be the owner when the ink is dried.
I also believe the payroll will go down
And the easiest way to achieve that reduction:
1)Trade Harden in July or let his contract run out
2)Trade either Lilly/or Dempster for
either a young bat or prospects.
3)Bradley trade,,,but we would hve to pick up 40 - 50% of contract.
Next season...rotation...
Zambrano
Wells
Ascaino
Shark
(Lilly/Dempster/Marshall/Prospect???)
Bullpen
Guxman/Marmol...and all new...but about same money.
There any number of teams that would trade for Lilly...with top talent coming back.
Dempster, while a little high...is still in the reasonable contract area. And should bring good return.
It is much easier to trade our strength
then our weakness...to reduce payroll.
All the other guys...we will have to absorb contract costs.
Suzy is really rockin' and ramblin'. Let's hope the situation doesn't become that austere--even though it could.
Hell, those of us still breathing may call 2007-2008 The Good Old Days in five years!! LOL
Aaron....I'll leave the commiserating about the contracts and management to you. Some of them may have made sense at the time--when faced with having one golden grasp for the brass ring. Except for Soriano, those do go away in pairs over '10, '11 and '12. (A couple of them, admittedly, have been painful, and their exits will be limiting.)
The other main bidder (I think) was another financial type--like me (LOL) and Tom R.) maybe with real estate investment holdings. I'm not recalling his name. Another Chicago group (Dearborn Partners?) went away when the price shot by $700 mil. They could be back if the Ricketts deal falls.
There's more to the revenue situation than you mention. Wrigley is small but ticket prices are high. The adjoining real estate near Wrigley and owned by the Cubs or the Trib reportedly has a lot of development value.
You mention a "sweetheart" media deal as limiting. I think that is one sticking point right now, and that the Ricketts are resisting such a deal. Advertising revenues are likely to drop (I think), but the Cubs do have a national franchise. The court wants the Cubs asset preserved--so they are not going to be disruptive of operations.
I think creditors could try to force Zell's hand in court to get a deal done. Zell has "only" about $200 or $300 mil of his money in the $7 (?) billion Trib deal, and the employees and lenders have the rest. That's not exactly chump change, but he won't miss it. I don't see how he gets any return. So, I don't see why he isn't more flexible.
Right...that's exactly what I was wondering "I don't see why he isn't more flexible"
As for the Dearborn group..Is that the one headed by Selig's best friend? I certainly hope they don't get back into bidding if it falls through.
I knew the Cubs owned that lot across from the field that used to be a car wash, but I was unaware of any other holdings, so that's interesting.
So, let's say this goes to bankruptcy court.....then what? Is this going to turn into a Phoenix Coyotes fiasco (I know nobody would threaten to move the team), but still...