Thanks JimK for your thoughts on "early facts".

I have not made as many comments as I have done in previous years. And the reason for it, truly, is that I am amazed at some of the comments in here. I know they mean well, but c'mon we are all die-hard Cubs fans and we are all rooting for them to win. The constant bashing of players does not sit well with me. This is baseball -- all players do not hit .300, 30 home runs and drive in 100, or in the case of pitchers win 20 games. All I ask of the players is to try to win and play as hard as they can. I have not seen any players that are not trying or not playing hard. I can live with a team that entertains and tries as hard as possible. I love baseball and I love my Cubs. This is a good team with a good manager and general manager. To project early season stats is ridiculous. I would much rather look at what they have done in previous seasons, as most of them will average out over a long season. Keep the faith people! GO CUBS!

Did you know . . .

that Stevie Erie has 16 career blown saves, and only 4 career saves?

How many holds...what era...over how many years? He was never a closer. But always a pretty good reliever.

126 holds, 4.34 ERA over 580 games

Just heard this on 670theScore: Lou talking to reporters. It was an audio clip of Lou himself saying about COTTS:

"He's faced 9 lefthanders this year, and walked 6 of them. That has to stop. We cannot let that continue to happen."

I told you this would be Cotts last week in a Cubs uniform.

The Score's take is that Lou crushes the confidence of "young" pitchers. They pointed to "Stevie Erie" comments by Lou last year. Eyre was horrible as a Cub, and really excelled for the Phils. They expect the same scenario with Cotts. He'll leave Lou and the Cubs and become a world beater somewhere else.

In my world, Erye isn't as good as his Philadelphia record last year. And neither Cotts (29) nor Eyre (36) are young men.

There's a trade coming this week, perhaps by Wednesday evening.

Scott Eyre had a good track record before the Cubs...was OK with the Cubs and is a good reliever.

Cotts had one good year with the White Sox...there is no comparison. It's possible Lou might not handle young pitchers well...but how has Marmol succeeded with him? That's hogwash!

Throw strikes and Lou will be your best friend.

About 2 months ago I said that Z will be a problem for cubs this year and I was raked over the coals by a few people who choose to drink the kool-aid and not face reality.



I am speculating , but there are things that are disturbing about this guy to me.

1.) First off, he is the not the team player that he attempts to portray. I know someone inside the team that has corrobated that with various stories.

2.) I will bet my right arm that he has juiced at some point in his career. Notice how injuries are starting to pile up with this guy over the last 2 years ? Shoulder injuries are red flags, that is not good. They don't go away overnight.

3.) If he is 27 years old like he claims to be, than I'm the tooth fairy. We know the history with many latin players fudging their age. Just look at the latest - Tejada. Sorry, but there is no way, just look at him. My guess is that he is 29 or 30. If he's really 27, that would mean he was pitching at a high level (2003) at 21. And that he was brought up at 19 in 2001. C'mon. I know it happens, but its very, very rare.

He reminds me in certain ways of an OF that used to play RF for us (#21). Just remember, when he was hitting 60 HR's and eating flintstone vitamins, we all buried our head in the sand and bowed down, and thought he was the greatest player that ever lived. But when more truth about him started to come out, how did that turn out ? We couldn't get rid of him fast enough.

I hate to say it, but I think Z's contract will be like a boat anchor over the next few years.

My guess is that ripsnorter's "facts" are opinions that will not come to pass. If they are facts, and Z, D, and H win only 35 while Bradley misses half the season, we could regress to being also-rans as he and a few others are suggesting. That could men 80-85 wins).

What is disturbing to some of us is the "They are doomed to failure" outlooks regarding players or the team--based on small samples of experience or the view that past bad experiences have to repeat themselves. (ripsnorter does recognize that it's still early, and time will tell.)

Another take on "early facts" is that, with Sori on pace to hit 80 HR's, Rami on pace to drive in 180 and Riot on pace to hit 400, we could still be OK. If Heilman cuts his pace in half (currently 2 wins every 10 games) he would win 40. That could make us forget Z and H. LOL

Everyone here is able to say what they want and comment (or not) on what else is said. I'm suggesting that we temper our harshest condemnations until the games sample size and the facts are compelling. That could be when we are looking at April and May from the perspective of early June. IMO, if you are a certified team booster and die-hard fan, you can go easy on the vitriol early on.

Cubs fans will have to watch a troubled staff this year. The facts are as follows:

1. Big Z is a falling star: his stats prove it. You can expect him to be--at best--a 14 game winner this year. His stats show that he is a winner due to strong run support. If he were a true #1, with this run support, he'd win 25-28 games. Just ask Fergie Jenkins.

2. Dempster will most likely be fortunate to produce 12 wins. He is coming off a free agent bonanza, and the stats show that there is a falling off of production after the free agent year for most players. His walk totals already are horrifying. Last year his excellent control was the reason for his success. Expect an off year from him. He isn't a #1.

3. Harden: Mr. Injury Prone #2 (behind Mr. Injury himself, Milton Bradley. You may expect 25 starts max, and if his MBL winning percentage continues, he'll win 10 games. (He's never won more than 11).

4. Lilly: expect his usual performance, 17 wins. Nice #4 starter, eh?

5. Marshall: not a true starter, and will not win more than 6 games, most likely. He's a good man to have around, but he's really only a spot starter and a situational lefty.

Conclusion: the Cubs are not as strong as most on this board presume, imho. If I am wrong (the season will prove me right or wrong), I am willing to eat crow on this post. It will be a real fight for the Cubs to beat out the Cards and their excellent manager. They have problems, too, ie, a very poor bullpen, and an injured Carpenter. But they have a nice lineup, and a cagey manager who seems to always get the most out of what he has.

I agree with your assessment ripsnorter...BUT...I do think the Cubs are trying for it all...and expect Ricketts to bring in pitching help before the trade deadline.

I've never been comfortable with Z in the number 1 spot. He's a solid 2 or 3, but not a number 1. I think he just got the position by default with Wood and Prior started their injury careers and Clement was shipped off. I still wish we would have kept clement longer. He could have compeition with Reed over chin hair!

"Abe Lincoln" Clement just retired. He signed a minor league rehab contract with Toronto this spring and his shoulder did not respond.

I found that out yesterday when trying to find out about him and Prior.

As for Prior, other than signing a similar contract with the Padres in January...I can't find out anything about him...he is not listed on any of their rosters or DL list. Anyone know anything?

How do you manage a man-child capable of greatness and also capable of attention deficit disorder? That is the every-5 days-question.

It could be that Z brings a secret weapon to his games. It doesn't compute that Z pitches badly in his last 14 starts (5.69 ERA), and the Cubs are 10-4 in them. Incredibly, that eye opener says Z will win 22 games over a full season. It must be that the hitters know that Z's bat could carry them. They relax and score 7 or 8 runs. LOL.

My take is that Z is a man-child with a kind of attention deficit disorder. His instinctive wiring works against him in threatening situations. He doesn't think to understand and counter what the batter is expecting--especially as it relates to location and speed. Z throws what Z wants to throw and too often that is what the hitter is expecting.

I'm on record as saying Z will give us a strong outing next time. Even Z isn't indifferent to the humble pie he's eaten for awhile. Z could choose to be more of a mystery to the hitters a lot more often--and pitch to an ERA in the low 3's.

As an aside re. ace status, Z tops out as a 1.b. vs. a 1.a. like CC and Santana. (There may not be 6 1.a.'s in both leagues.) But Demp and Harden are 1.b.'s too and Lilly is a 3.a.--so our starting pitching matches up pretty well with the elite teams. Health and temperament wise, Demp should be our best 1.b. over the season.

the worst thing about z is that he is spoiled. he is a head case that we all cheer when he is on and quietly rebuke when he is off. we all treat d lee and soriano like crap when they scuffle a little bit but handle z with like a baby. sori and lee are two of the classiest people in baseball and z is nothing more than a baby that must either get his way or he sits in the corner and pouts. why else would demp not get the opening day start. lou was scared of the clubhouse repercusions if z didnt get the start. big z needs to grow up and take responsibility for himself because if we are going to end the drought, we need the grown up version of z on the hill.

Big Z is not a consistent Number 1 guy.

Some times, he is. Most of the time he is a guy who throws a lot of pitches by the 6th inning and flames out.

I don't think it even takes inside information to deduce that Zambrano is lazy. Your own 2 eyes laid upon his pear shaped body and the now frequent 2nd half arm problems will tell you that. I just can't believe that someone could take that much money and not want to make his employer's investment pay off for them. Seems pretty selfish to me.

Neal, thanks for the spell check!

Z is paid like a #1...has the stuff to be a #1...talks like a #1...but to date

has not proven to be the real stopper his potential suggest him to be.

Over the winter, I wondered if Z had an arm problem and asked another semi-authoritive website about him...their reply was that " Z was really lazy in his work habits and if he ever changed that,he would become the ace he should be."

(I don't want to name the website because

it might start a controversy for a prominent baseball guy.)

I don't know if that is the case...but Z

appears to be a better #2 or #3 rotation guy until he straightens himself out.