I really wish we had some insurance for Z and Harden. I have no problems with the names for the 5th spot (Marshall, Heilman, Gaudin) but if Z and/or Harden have any setbacks the rotation we are down to Dempster and Lilly. Anyone else have the same concern?

Jeff,

That's one of the major reasons I was worried about the Peavy trade. Peavy has his own health issues, so then you'd have 3.

Look, the way I see it...(though Neil might disagree about Guzman), is that we have the following:

Z-injury risk
Harden-injury risk
Dempster
Lilly
Marshall

If for any reason, Z or Harden goes down, we still have Guzman, Heilman, Gaudin, Samardzija, Atkins, Hart, Wells, and even Ascanio (who I understand is returning to the rotation in AAA from the pen)

I know none of those guys are "sexy" picks, but honestly, Hart reminds me a lot of Peavy's stuff. He has a fastball with decent movement, a nasty slider, and was working on a split. Guzman has all the tools to be an ace, and we certainly saw how dominant he could be at the very end of last year. Samardzija is another guy with Ace-like make-up, and he proved it in pressure situations out of the pen last year. He just needs to refine a 3rd pitch.

So, technically, all you'd experience a drop-off with is Harden. Harden is just flat out dominating...when healthy. And you really can't have a back up for what he brings to the table....when healthy.

The way I see it is Guzman can take over for Zambrano if he's hurt, with Dempster moving into the "ace" role, and Samardzija can try to take over for Harden. But I do think we have an awful lot of 3-5 type pitchers in our arsenal, which I mentioned above, so if Dempster and Lilly have to move up, we should be covered there.

A lot of teams would love to be in the position we're in. Sure, we don't have a bunch of lights-out arms worthy of Ace talk, but we have a lot of pitchers worthy of pitching regularly at the MLB level.

As I alluded to---Hart might just be the wild card in all of this. He was dominating late in 2007 when he came up, and made a big enough impression to be included on the playoff roster. I think nerves got the best of him last year, but he still flashed glimpses of returning to form. Please keep in mind that Zambrano struggled early when he came up, and most pitchers do, so we just need to give these kids a chance...and in Guzman's case, he deserves it. Had he not run into bad luck in the Dusty years, he would've been a mainstay in our rotation, as he was voted best pitcher in Spring Training one year by his teammates with like a 1.10 ERA or something like that.

Just look at the bullpen, and you'll see how many options we might have. Here are the locks for the pen:

Marmol
Gregg
Cotts
Vizcaino (unfortunately)
Gaudin/Heilman/Guzman/Marshall/Samardzija/Hart/Ascanio/Wells/Stevens/Patton/Atkins/Mateo
*that's 12 guys for 4 spots (one in the rotation and 3 in the pen). I think Guzman and Samardzija are best suited for the pen right now, and Marshall's probably best suited for the rotation. Heilman will make the team, so we're set there, and Patton will be returned to his original team. I think the AAA rotation will be: Hart, Ascanio, Wells, Mateo, and Atkins with Stevens as the closer. I believe Hendry will find a way to either trade Gaudin or Vizcaino, and if he cannot do so, then Samardzija will join the AAA rotation, and Gaudin will take his spot in the pen.

Either way, we have plenty of options to choose from that could potentially take over should Z or Harden go down (though, I think we're all holding our breath that it won't come down to that). Additionally, pretty much every Spring Training brings a stand-out performer we would never expect...perhaps a position player, catcher, or pitcher from a lower level might emerge.

Keep in mind that we might have surprises in: Mathes, Caridad, Cashner, and Roquet with pitching and Castillo or Clevenger and catcher, and Deeds, Barney, and possibly the new guy from Oakland---Robnett. You just never know....

Personally I'm pretty excited to see how the league adjusts to Harden. I thought he was amazing last year. A 1.77 ERA in the Cubs starts, and he does it in such a crafty way. Great painting of the corners, change of speeds, and that insane splitter. I thought his comments on cubs.com were telling: he's basically been learning to pitch without lighting up the radar guns, so I guess we'll see if the drop in velocity shows up again, and how it affects his "craft."

I agree with maybe we should worry about the starting rotation if someone get hurt, but it is the bullpen that is giving me nightmares.Can we really depends on the guys we have right know without a real veteran presence in there.

Thanks for the info and videos Neil.

If some how the cubs figure a way to keep the visa problem for Vizcaino all year, then I suppose we solve that problem right? Just kidding or maybe not.