Musical Chairs ...

Vote 0 Votes

Just start the music, let the eight starters dance around a circle of seven chairs, stop the music, and let the mad dash ensue. Repeat until there is one chair left.

The winner will be your new 2009 Cubs leadoff hitter.


I know it sounds stupid, but, well, why not?

I know this for sure, the game must be replayed if Alfonso Soriano wins. He should not bat leadoff.

I openly admit that I have flip-flopped on this, but after watching it for two seasons, and more importantly, two post-seasons, it must end now. He dominates a third, fourth or fifth starter, but struggles mightily against ones and twos. This is a major problem for a leadoff hitter, especially in the playoffs.

When I look at the players on the team, Ryan Theriot should bat first. However, he must work on his base-stealing skills. He is too fast to get thrown out at the rate he does. He got caught stealing 33% of the time in 2008, but was only cut down 12% of the time in 2007. This is a situation that must be addressed.

The debate will rage on until the beginning of the season and throughout at the season as the lineup will most likely be tinkered with for a while.

Now to address Mr. Soriano. If your mental makeup is so weak that your place in the order actually plays a role in your performance, you are not worth your current salary (sorry if that was obvious). I am glad to hear he is open to moving down the order because that is exactly what should happen. And if he is nervous, someone needs to explain to him what it will be like to bat between Milton Bradley and Geovany Soto.

  1. Ryan Theriot
  2. Derrek Lee
  3. Aramis Ramirez
  4. Milton Bradley
  5. Alfonso Soriano
  6. Geovany Soto
  7. Fukudome/Johnson
  8. Miles/Fontenot

Now, I preface this lineup with one crucial point. If Lee has similar groundball/double play issues as he did in 2008, he should bat seventh and either Kosuke Fukudome or Reed Johnson should bat second.

Also, if Lou is going to play a lot of small ball, then Fukudome or Johnson should bat second no matter what. However, minus the small-ball and the ground balls (big assumption, I know) Derrek Lee could thrive in the 2-hole.

Derrek Lee is too good to bat seventh, but after his struggles last year and the emergence of Soto, it's difficult to hit Lee in front of Soto. This will be something to watch during the season.

Ryan Theriot could also benefit from having Lee bat second. A healthy and successful Derrek Lee gives Theriot more protection than a Fukudome/Johnson combination or even a Miles/Fontenot combination.

As you can tell, I think Derrek Lee holds the key to the way the lineup is written day after day. Heck, a 2005 Derrek Lee could bat third, but I don't see that happening.

It's fun to play with different scenarios, but based on the assumptions I put forth above, the lineup I proposed is the way I would go. Playing the lineup game must be done with certain assumptions in order to defend one's thoughts.

No one knows exactly what the opening day lineup will be, but as Len Kasper suggested at the Cubs Convention, maybe Milton Bradley should hit first with his OBP. Stranger things have happened.

Let's see your lineup below. Not that we haven't been playing that game for a few days now, but the CCO is reigniting the conversation.

Feel free to contact me at brian@chicagocubsonline.com and until next time ....

Stay Classy Cubs Fans

  • nick

    Aaron, I have alwasy like Theriot in the lead off spot, was it in '07 when Soriano was out, Theriot was hmoved into the leadoff spot. I forget what his exact line was, I will have to look it up, but I am pretty sure it was over .300.



    What is your thoughts on who will be the 5th starter?

  • Jon

    Lee batting third will damn this team again? What the hell are you talking about? He drove in 90 runs....second on the team....he hit .545 in the playoffs. You say 2005 was his only good year? Then look at his stats again from 2000 to 2005....he had great years. He had a career year in 2005, they all have career years. He GIDP 27 times last year, 9 more than his career high. The chances that happens again is slim...he had an off year...they all have them...Lou is going to bat him third because that is where he belongs.

  • Aaron

    keeping Lee in the 3 hole is going to be damning to this team yet again...he's just not suited for that role anymore, and never was....he had a great year in 2005. So what?!?!? that's a dime a dozen in this league. One year wonders on every block, cashing in on huge deals. In a way, he's almost like Richard Hidalgo, only Hidalgo was for sure on 'roids. Will Dempster's contract be a redux of the Lee deal where we drastically overpay for a one year wonder? Time will tell... But I can assure you nobody is calling Dempster the ace of the team, and you typically put your "ace" of the lineup in the 3 hole, and Lee is no "ace" and never was. ARAM can be that guy. Hell, if...yeah, there's that word...if...Bradley can play 162 games, perhaps he can be that guy. Lee belongs no higher than 5th in the lineup and that's the damn truth. He can't just magically change his approach in the offseason if he couldn't make adjustments during live games during the course of 6 months...he made NO adjustments, and that's the key.



    By May, they had him and Fukudome kind of figured out. In both of their cases, they'd get jammed inside, and then the book was away, away, away, and they popped out or grounded out weakly. Your 3 hole hitter knows how to make those adjustments, and make the pitchers pay. I don't know...maybe Lee ate some magic beans this offseason that all of a sudden made him think logically in game situations----I highly doubt it though, and if a singles hitter is on before him, and can't steal second, we're looking at a lot more double plays.

  • agustin rexach

    I think Dusty should go with this;



    1-Corey Patterson[lefty]

    2-Ramon Martinez[switch hitter/dustys nephew]

    3-Neifi Perez[too bad steroids tainted the legacy, and that Grandslam]

    4-Antonio Alfonseca[great 6 finger split]

    5-Roberto Novoa[dustys nephew]

    6-Jaque Jones

    7-Dude

    8-John Mabry

    9-Lenny Harris[great ph with others I guess]

  • Jim

    Fontenot 2B

    Theriot SS

    Bradley RF

    Ramirez 3B

    Soriano LF

    Lee 1B

    Soto C

    Fukudome CF

  • joe d

    Looks like it is indeed a moot point. Lou said he's keeping Soriano at the top according to the cubs.com article. His line-up looks like this:



    Soriano

    Miles

    Lee

    Bradley

    Ramirez

    Fukudome

    Soto

    Theriot



    I think the most glaring anomaly is batting Soto 7th. It's almost just a straight left/right/left/right line-up, as if that's all that matters...

  • Aaron

    here's what I know...



    I would never bat Theriot second. I used to think this was a great idea, until I realized he's a slap hitter, and often pounds the ball on the ground through the holes. He actually got doubled up quite a bit for supposedly being a "speed" guy. He is nothing more than a singles hitter. However, given his ability to make contact, and foul off a lot of pitches without striking out, he could end up hurting the starting pitcher leading off the game by making him throw a lot of pitches. So, Theriot gets on base, and he struggles with his stolen base percentage...hmmmmmmmm...what to do?



    1-Theriot: for reasons mentioned above

    2-Fontenot: his slugging was huge for a mini guy, but he does hit an awful lot of doubles, so he'd be the perfect 2-hole hitter

    3-ARAM: because he's an RBI machine, and with two little guys that get on-base a lot, he could have a MONSTER year in this spot

    4-Bradley: you want a lefty-righty mix, and he fits well here anyway

    5-Soriano: you don't want Soriano hitting 3rd or 4th, because he's a free swinger, and you either want the bases cleared when he's up, or an extra-base hitter on 2nd base

    6-Lee: Lee is a contact hitter, and hits an awful lot straight up the middle. It's almost a given that he follows Soriano, because Soriano's either hit a home run, struck out, or is standing on second base (in that exact order). Lee can drive in Soriano with one of his lame ass oppo-field singles, or at the very least, move him to 3rd with one of his many ground outs (provided he learn to ground out to 2nd).

    7-Soto: because if Lee does his job, there will be a runner on 3rd, and Soto proved he could drive in the runners last year

    8-Fukudome/Johnson: either one of these guys would be perfect for the 8 hole. Johnson is scrappy, while Fukudome is a slap hitter. The pitcher will probably sacrifice them to 2nd, and Theriot will be up, much like Lee, to slap one of his singles into CF or RF to drive them in.



    You can allows sub Miles in for Fontenot when a lefty is pitching, and in that case, you move Johnson into the 2 hole, and Miles in the 8 hole.

  • cc002600

    Sorry, I don't mean to rain on your lineup talk.



    But my whole point is that trying to predict or argue what lineup we're going to use is a meaningless exercise when its going to change everyday, for various reasons. So what does it matter ?



    It's like sitting here in Feb and trying to predict what the weather will be in July. It's pointless.



    If you all get enjoyment out of it,then have at...by all means. Don't mind me.



    Sorry, just my $.02



    Go Cubs.

    :-)





  • stan

    What's the big deal with leading off the game? After that one turn you're just another hitter that happens to be behind the pitcher. I'd like to see some stats about how many times the leadoff hitter actually leads off an inning (other than the first). Let's see if it really matters.

  • Joe S. (San Diego)

    Ask and you shall receive.....



    Last year Alfonso Soriano led off the game 104 times. He managed to be the lead off hitter (outside of the first inning) 72 more times during those 104 games. (176 lead off plate appearances total)



    Meanwhile, Aramis Ramirez who spent most of the year batting cleanup, had 149 plate appearances as a lead off man during the season.



    Geo Soto, who pretty evenly split his batting order spot between 5-6-and-7 managed to have 122 plate appearances leading off an inning.

  • joe d

    Weird stats. Well, ok, I'm wiling to give ARAM the 3 hole then. Why not let Soriano bat 4th, that way he'll lead-off a lot of non-1st innings, and give Bradley the 5 hole, batting lefty between ARAM/Soriano and SOTO/LEE?

  • Joe S. (San Diego)

    As a side note, I posted a community blog article that I actually wrote for Bleacher Report on possible steroid users.....it is a bit difficult to read because of the way it formatted itself on here....the actual article can be found at:



    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/126425-prime-9-questionable-steroid-users

  • Joe S. (San Diego)

    Last year, a season that saw the Cubs win 97 games, they used 112 different batting orders during the season! The most common order was only used 7 times!



    By comparison, the world champion Phillies used 77 different batting orders, with the most common one being used 19 times. While less than the Cubs, that is still alot of different line up shuffling. Also, 19 games out of a 162 game season is not much for regularity.



    In todays game with fewer players playing 155-162 games as in the past, there will be numerous line ups used.



    Also, as pointed out above, it's a bit senseless to worry about who is the leadoff hitter, when in fact the player in the 1st spot is only guaranteed to hit first once per game.



    My biggest issue with Soriano in the 1-hole is that we waste his homeruns with less chance of runners being on base ahead of him. That is the sole reason to move him lower.



    Another concern I have with the lineup is not pushing Soto too far down the lineup. In this, his sophomore season, I don't want him to get into a slump because pitchers have figured him out. He needs solid protectin behind him to ensure he gets quality pitches to hit.



    I'd like to see our key players bunched together like this:



    Soriano

    Ramirez

    Bradley

    Soto

    Lee



    Does that mean you pick one player (Theriot/Fukudome/Johnson/Fontenot) and insert him as the #1 hitter and then put that group of players? Or perhaps you put two of those names I just mentioned at the top of the order, followed by the core group. The odd man out then bats 8th behind Lee.





  • rotinaj

    1. Soriano

    2. Theriot

    3. Lee

    4. Bradley

    5. Rami

    6. Soto

    7. Fontenot

    8. Fukudome

    9. Pitcher



    If up against a right hander i would switch Soto and Fontenot. And I know people might yell at me because Soriano batting lead off, but with his speed and if he can let some pitches go sometimes, its perfect with the riot's natural swing to advanace sori over to third. And i moved Rami to 5th because we need a change up in the first 4 with all the rightys.

  • Lee immediately followed Theriot in the order most fo the season last year, so I don't see how having Theriot in the leadoff spot followed by Lee in the 2 hole makes any difference.



    Lee never batted higher than 5th before he came to the Cubs and apart from his magical 2005 season, never hit over 31 HR's.



    I see some value hitting Lee behind Soriano as a mistake to Soriano ends up a HR instead of a single.



    If Soriano isn't batting leadoff, which I also think there are better in house alternatives, the 5 hole would be a great spot for a free swinger like him. He'd still be able to run as the 3 and 4 hitters have a great chance of clearing the bases in front of him.



    It would be a shame to see Soto hit 7th but dropping Lee that far down in the order would be a little extreme after hitting in the 3 hole all this time. Soto is young and Lee won't be here forever, so Soto should move up in the order when Lee gets a day off or is gone.



    Of course if Soriano hits leadoff, Lee could be a candidate to hit 2nd for the same reasons I mentioned hitting him 6th with Soriano in the 5 hole.



    I understand Fontenot has a fair amount of experience hitting leadoff and the having the natural inside-out swinging Theriot hitting in the 2 hole, you'd provide 2 LHB's for a nice L-R-L-R in the top 4 spots in the order.



    Proposing a lineup with Soriano out of the top spot could look something like this...



    Fontenot LHB

    Theriot RHB

    Bradley SH

    A-Ram RH

    Soriano RH

    Lee RH

    Soto RH

    Fukudome LH/ Johnson RH

    Pitcher



    The team would have quick, high OBP hitters at the top of the lineup in front of a muderous middle of the order.



    Of course switching Theriot and Fontenot might be a little more productive as Fontenot has some pop in his bat and is patient enough to give Theriot a chance to steal. Whatever happened to Thriot on the bases can't continue this year otherwise he'll end up in the 8 hole.

  • Wilbur

    As for why hit Aram third, my logic is that I rate him the best hitter (focusng on percentage, ability to put the ball in play, and hit with power) and the #3 spot gets him maximum at bats and maximum at bats with runners on base.



    Its the same reason Pujols hits third for Cardinals. Others would succeed there, but you set your premier hitter in the premier spot in the order.



    If you happen to feel someone else is the premier Cub hitter i.e., Lee, Bradley, Soriano, etc.), and that argument can be made, my thinking would say that person would be your #3 hitter.

  • joe d

    That's a great point. I always forget Pujols hits 3rd. I guess I was thinking having Bradley 4th puts a lot of undo early pressure on him. Also, Aramis has become so patient at the plate, I figure whoever hits third in front of him (Soriano or Bradley) would see a lot of fastballs, which might be a great formula for Bradley as the league tries to figure him out in the first half.

  • cc002600

    Jeez..



    Lineup discussions are the most overrated, beat to death, waste of time arguments I have ever seen. Spring games haven't even started yet, I am so tired of the Soriano leadoff debate already.



    Based on injuries, the opposing pitcher, who's hot or who's not, potential mid-season trades, rest for certain players, the lineup will change EVERYDAY. Over the course of 6 long months, so many things change along the way.





    So why does everyone waste so much time making out their mock lineups in the middle of Feb ?? I will never understand.



    And oh by the way, your 1st batter is guaranteed to leadoff 1 inning. It's so overrated.

  • 09shine

    lighten up.. nobody likes a negative nancy

  • joe d

    Man, making up line-up cards is so fun, in february, july, or october. You get to play manager. I don't think anyone expects Lou to visit the site and take our suggestions seriously, but as a fan of baseball, it's an interesting exercise. Your lead-off batter only leads off once a game, yes, but hopefully 150 times a season.

  • agustin rexach

    relax dude, it's too early to be so tired!! you will have a heart attack by october...lol

  • paul k

    vs Righties



    Fontenot

    Theriot

    Bradley

    Ramirez

    Soriano

    Lee

    Soto

    Fukudome



    vs lefties

    Miles

    Theriot

    Bradley

    Ramirez

    Soriano

    Lee

    Soto

    Johnson

  • Beaker

    All that can really be said is that Soriano should be moved from leadoff. 29 homeruns with 75 RBIs. Placing him down in the order could add on at least 20 RBIs considering at LEAST ten of those homeruns were solo.

    Moving Lee is smart considering his problems with doubles last year and the pickup of Bradley.

    1 Theriot

    2 Fukudome

    3 Bradley

    4 Ramirez

    5 Soriano

    6 Lee

    7 Soto

    8 Fontenot

    Why not Fukudome 2nd? If he can get that slap hit back it would place men at the corners. He is best suited for this spot considering the play they do in Japan. The rest seems to fall in line. Plus on those few days that Lee and Soto get off having them down in the line up allows the top to stay consistent and the power hitters the same in the middle.

  • John G.

    My theory is that you take your best OBP and have him leadoff followed by your best LH hitter to increase your odds of moving the leadoff man over to third. Using 2008 stats I would lead off with Theriot followed by Fonteno if a LHP or Bradley if a RHP. If Fukodome returns to what he did the first half of last year, then I would put him in the #2 spot.

  • joe d

    Why do so many people have ARAM 3rd and Bradley 4th? Ramirez hits lots of home runs, and I thought he was amazing in the clean-up role last year. Incredibly clutch in the late innings. What makes him the best number 3 hitter? Also, why do we think Bradley will thrive as clean-up? With his towering OBP I would think he would be better suited IN FRONT of the 4 hole. Here it is again (Honestly the 2, 7, and 8 hitters can pretty much be shuffled based on match-ups):



    THERIOT

    FONTENOT

    BRADLEY

    RAMIREZ

    SORIANO

    SOTO

    LEE

    FUKUDOME/JOHNSON

    ZAMBRANO

  • jerljr

    Alright I'll put my two cents in:



    Theriot

    Fukodome/Johnson

    Soriano

    Ramirez

    Lee

    Bradley

    Soto

    Fontenot/Miles

    Pitcher



    But opening day will be:



    Soriano

    Theriot

    Lee

    Ramirez

    Bradley

    Soto

    Fuko

    Font

    Pitcher



    Its not going to change much.

  • Wilbur

    As has been expressed for months the big issue is a true leadoff hitter. Once that player (or committee has been named). Soriano moves down the lineup.



    The next issue is getting the best hitter in the #3 hole. Most people, myself included, put Aram there.



    After that, put your next most dangerous hitter #4, I, also like most, make that to be Bradley.



    After that, as Tony Hall mentioned above, the team has so much variability the other pieces can be mixed and matched to compliment the opposition's pitching, small ball strategy, and rotating players in and out of the line-up for rest days.

  • Rob M

    Honestly, it doesn't matter who leads off for all I care Lou Pinella could lead off we just need to past Sept and win in October.

  • Adam Straw

    1. Theriot

    (Led 2008 team in AVG, has some speed)



    2. Fontenot / Miles

    (Fontenot led 2008 team in OBP, min 100 plate appearances. Just guessing, but I feel like he will have a big year. Ron Santo thinks LBR will have a big year too)



    3. Soriano / Ramirez

    (The two biggest 2008 SLG'ers, can't really pick between them)



    4. Bradley

    (Just to break up Soriano / Ramirez)



    5. Soriano / Ramirez



    6. Lee

    (Lee naturally falls here, I think, after you slot in the other positions above)



    7. Soto

    (Soto actually had more power than Lee in 2008, but I can't really see Soto hitting ahead of Lee even if it is just because of seniority.



    8. Fukudome / Johnson

    (I would actually like to break up Lee and Soto with Fukudome against a RHP, but can't really see batting Soto #8)



    #1, #2, and #8 holes should be interchangeable. Lou can play the hot hand.



    I like the fact that this lineup begins R, L, R, L, R against a RHP.

  • Tony Hall

    1 Theriot

    2 Fontenot/Miles

    3 Ramirez

    4 Bradley

    5 Soriano

    6 Lee

    7 Soto

    8 Fukudome/Reed Johnson



    Lee can't bat second, he hits into to many double plays, and you can't hope that will go away. Theriot and Fontenot (Miles) get on-base and that is the goal of your 1 and 2 hitters in front of your RBI guys coming up 3-4-5. Except that the Cubs will have RBI guys 3-4-5-6-7. Aramis and Bradley need to be 3-4 and with Fontenot, 2nd Bradley should hit 4th. Soriano's power makes him 5th. Lee in front of Soto, these could go either way, with Soto being a catcher that will miss more games, puts him 7th and whoever is in center bats 8th. Of course with the versatility of this team, there is no set lineup. Just as long as Soriano is hitting lower than 1 or 2. As a pitcher would you want to get to Aramis batting 3rd, with men on base, knowing what's coming up behind him. Anyway you mix them will produce a top offense, but this way will maximize the offense.

  • Mike

    Hmm....what I like about our lineup is that many of the guys you can put in the 7/8 slot can also go higher in the order...much versatility. These are some ideas, and one is contingent on Fukudome picking it up (which I think he will...he'll be playing within a familiar atmosphere for the WBC and has much to prove to himself and us)



    While I love the idea of DLee in the 2 hole, this is just something different I would also approve of.



    Ryan Theriot

    Fukudome/Johnson

    Aramis Ramirez

    Milton Bradley

    Alfonso Soriano

    Derek Lee

    Geovany Soto

    Miles/Fontenot



    or



    Fukudome

    Theriot or Fontenot/Miles

    Ramirez

    Bradley

    Lee

    Soriano

    Soto

    Theriot or Fontenot/Miles

    (this, only if Johnson isn't playing)



    gosh...way too many combos. How about this one, if either of the Cajun Connection isn't in the game:



    Miles

    Fukudome/Johnson

    Ramirez

    Bradley

    Soriano

    Lee

    Soto

    (whoever Miles isn't subbing for)



    even more interesting would be if either Miles or Fontenot were at 3B covering for Rami, but I'm not Lou, so I'm not gonna go crazy w/ this.

  • 09shine

    soriano

    fontenot

    ramirez

    bradley

    lee

    fukudome

    soto

    theriot

    pitch



    that's the way it should be

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