Neil,
I saw that trade, and was going to comment on it, but you beat me to the punch.

Here's what I see with all this trade stuff going on right now. It appears that teams are willing to trade their proven veterans that either have one year left on their contract, or are up for arbitration, and they're willing to do it for next to nothing.

Holliday is a great case in point. If Street, Smith, and Gonzalez can land a middle of the order power hitter and franchise player, then there's no reason Cedeno, Pie, and Marshall can't get Peavy.

Smith is about the same as Marshall (actually Marshall is better), Gonzalez is HORRIBLE, even worse than Pie (and has been given more of a chance to prove himself than Pie has), and Street is coming off both a down year, AND injury concerns.

I can't believe it if Hendry doesn't pull off a heist like that given the market these days. I mean, consider the Santana deal last year. It hardly required anything to get that deal done. Similarly, Garza and Bartlett for Young and Harris, the Haren trade, and others. It appears that all you really need is one decent MLB proven commodity, a relatively young starter with decent success, and a raw talent to get these big name guys.

Look at all the proven talent, and spare parts we have:

Cedeno, Marshall, Hill, Pie, Hart, Hoffpauir, Fontenot, Jake Fox, Ascanio, Gaudin, Wuertz, Cotts, Guzman, Wells, Theriot, Samardzija, Fuld, etc.

All of these guys are young, and have shown good success in the minors and even in the majors.

As far as the pitching is concerned, we can virtually trade all those guys mentioned above in trades, and not miss a beat. We need to protect a lot of guys from the Rule 5 this year, including: Atkins, Mathes, Veal, Holliman, Campusano, Estrada, and we can add guys like Ceda, Papelbon, and Hernandez to our 40 man if need be (even though they're not eligible for Rule 5 until 2009)

As for position talent, the only two that would really hurt in my mind would be Fontenot and Hoffpauir. I would normally say Theriot, but he was one of the worst fielders at SS in terms of range, and he is essentially the right-handed version of Juan Pierre, but without as much speed. I believe even Nate Spears can pick up his slack in house if need be, and we have a few other SS prospects that might be able to as well.

Anyway, I guess my point is, we have a lot more MLB ready talent---including players with good success as well----than a lot of other teams out there. I just listed 17 players (6 starters-including Hart, the Shark, and Gaudin; 4 relievers, and 7 position players). That's quite a big of talent. Obviously, the starters I'd have a most difficult time trading would be Guzman and the Shark, because both are power arms with excellent stuff, but the point is. WE HAVE THAT TALENT.

I think many people tend to overlook our system, because once these players get a taste of MLB, they seem to no longer be considered prospects, so consequently, our system looks barren, when in fact, it's far from it.

Aaron,

I disagree. We don't have the talent and that is why Hendry is havinng trouble pulling off a deal for an impact player. Among the so-called experts at least, Gonzalez is considered head and shoulders above Pie at this point. It's not even close. Other than Marmol, Soto, Vitters and Samardzija, we don't have young talent that other teams covet. Now if we are willing to move those guys, then we could get an impact player, but JH wisely wants to hold on to his young blue chip talent. The other guys you mention ... Cedeno, Marshall, Hill, Pie, Hart, Hoffpauir, Fontenot, Jake Fox, Ascanio, Gaudin, Wuertz, Cotts, Guzman, Wells, Theriot, Fuld ... have very little trade value right now and that is why JH is struggling to make a deal.

Something I don't understand that I see more and more of each day . Why is everyone so down on Theriot ? This is guy who rarely strikes out, hit over .300, had an OBP of .387 and stole 22 bases. What don't you like ? I agree he is not the best defensive SS in the league, but I don't think he is a liability either. And oh by the way, he makes $500K....I have no idea why everyone wants to go out and spend $15M on Furcal when we have other needs. Makes no sense to me.

Please name me all the SS in the NL that are better than Theriot. I think you'll find that this list would be fairly short.

Aaron...

I do agree with you and I've thought that for a long time. All of our good young guys are with the team.

And David F...I think that many of the guys you listed as having no trade value actually do have value, but the problem for JH is deciding who he wants to trade away. Fontenot is great to have as a bat off the bench and to back up the infield. Hoffpauer, although I'm not as confident in him as other people on the sight are, had AAA stats very similar to Soto's last AAA stats. Guzman has had arm trouble, but has very promising stuff. Marshall may never be a 1 or 2 starter, but he has a lot of MLB experience and I think any team we make a trade with would want him in the deal. Theriot may be less than average defensively, but he led the team in BA and provided the pseudo-leadoff man from the 2 hole with soriano in the 1 hole.

You can say that we don't have the young talent, but I think we do. It's just that we use a lot of it as part of the big league team. This makes it hard to trade them away because they helped the team win 97 games last year. The problem isn't the lack of talent, it's what talent are we willing to give away.

I also agree that we do have young talent, and every report you read about the team indicates we have young talent.

There could be many reasons why JH has not made a trade. Lack of trading chips is not one of them.

I also support the belief of The Riot. I would be fine with him at SS as we have much more pressing needs elsewhere. I would also consider him a leadoff hitter as well.

I think the one trading chip nobody has mentioned and I'd throw it out there is Mark DeRosa...I love having him...but what would he bring back in return? We need a LH bat for RF and could use Michah Hoffpauir, we could give LH Mike Fontenot the job at 2B and get another lefty bat in there. I know he is super sub and all, but just something to ponder.

I also wish the Lou would not give up on Pie....keep in mind Lou he's only 23...I think it's too early in the game to give up on him. Put him in coach he's ready to play.

We talk about the need for LH hitters, yet we seem to have so many options in house. Imagine if you will:

Pie (L) CF
Theriot (R) 2B
Soriano (R) LF
Ramirez (R) 3B
Hoffpauir (L) RF
Lee (R) 1B
Soto (R) C
Fontenot (L) 2B
----------- P

I like that line up.

For those who wonder why other teams aren't so interested in Hoffpauir, Castillo, and Veal ... here is the newest Baseball Propsectus ranking of Cubs prospects.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8296

Nice nude pics of Neil (above)in the Google weight loss ad (going by his adult film name of Larry. Actually, the pics alone turned me off on lunch.

I'm not down on Theriot--who comes to play everyday. Greater range and more power would be plusses at SS which means that Theriot more fits the mold of a second baseman. In the "Win Lineup" I offered a couple of weeks ago on the blog, I noted that the Riot and Fontenot could be a solid 1-2 in the batting order--each hitting .300 + last year with high OBP's. I also had Hoffpauir and Soriano platooning in left--which makes considerable sense on paper.

The good news (as Aaron points out) is tht we have some nice roster depth for slots to be occupied by what I call the Handys (as opposed to the Dandys). David F is on the likely right track that trades for Big People (or Dandys) have to have to include Dandys. Guys like Theriot and Marshall especially have value as do Hart, Hoffpauir and Fontenot, and a couple of them could get us some Handys. For example, the Mariners are looking for low-cost hitters with some power--especially at DH and 1B. We might get their young lefty reliever Cesar Jimenez (3.41, 32 H in 34 IP, 13 W and 26 SO's) for Fox and Hart or for Hoffpauir in an expanded deal.

Here's a little more imagination about the possibility mentioned a couple of days ago that we would get Greene and a known reliever if we fail to land Peavy and lose Wood. I thought the reliever could be Putz or Hoffman--but now I think I saw the answer on the sports magazine stand. Street and Smith are coming to the Cubs from Denver!! You heard it hear first.

Whew....you scared me for a second there JimK. Thought I was going to have to have a talk with Neil tonight.

I'm hopeful you will forgive me for the mistaken identity, Abby. I am an aging veteran--if that helps.

David F....BP's top 11 Cubs' prospects does say that, after 3, it can be argued that any order for the remaining 8 may be as good as any another. Hoffpauir probably falls to 11 only because he will be 28. Veal is at 10 probably because he has made zero progress the last two years.

The discouraging part of the listing is it contains only Vitters (1), Samardzija (2) and Ceda (3) as Five (V) and Four-Star (S and C) Prospects. It's curious that Pie is not listed at all.

In that case, all is forgiven. And more importantly - Happy Veteran's Day to you!

Can the guy in the weight loss Ad put a shirt on?

Is that Mark Prior in the weight-loss Ad?

JimK that was hilarious!! poor Neil.

One of the CCO's second team commontators, Buster Olney, says that we are still in the hunt for Peavy. He adds that Braves have the lead.

Olney further says that our deal would involve a third team that would send pitching to San Diego. One of our losses would be our top prospect, Josh Vitters. A likely third team with pitching to spare doesn't jump out at me. I do wish we could keep our only highly ranked hitting prospect.

cc002600, you really think the list of better NL shortstops is that short? Lets look at that list:(not in any specific order)
1) Jose Reyes
2) Hanley Ramirez
3) Jimmy Rollins
4) Yunel Escobar
5) JJ Hardy
6) Troy Tulowitzki
7) Stephen Drew
8) Rafael Furcal
9) Christian Guzman
10) Miguel Tejada
The only two that are questionable on that list are Guzman and Tejada. Theriot is not a plus at SS.

Yeah that was a creepy ad...lol But I quickly focused on the ad that promised to make me a pick up master at clubs and bars!! I'll let you know how that works out.....

As for trading Josh Vitters, I know he was the third overall pick in the 2007 draft...but he's only 19...is he one of the few that will blossom? Or he be the one that stalls out? In 2003 we had a #3 pick...we took a shortstop by the name of Luis Montanez. Yeah...umm....who??? lol So, who knows what we have in store with Vitters right now. Felix Pie was heralded by everyone as our "future" he was marked "untradeable" and now look where he is... So, do we trade Vitters? I say, why not for a proven player such as Peavy.

I was looking over a number of the previous first round picks...and it's funny to see who panned out and who didn't...and to second guess who could have been had so much earlier in a draft...In the same 2000 draft I mentioned above, there arent many household names from that draft. The #1 went on to be a star, Padres 1B (drafted by Florida) Adrian Gonzalez. Interesting to note who could have been a Chicago Cubs player drafted third overall....instead of Luis Montanez it could have been........Chase Utley (taken 15th overall by the Phillies).

Isaac, that's a good list, I admit. There is more young talent at SS right now in the NL than in a long time.

I think the only point I was trying to make is that I think Theriot is a real nice player that fits in our lineup very well. He puts the ball in play, has some speed, and oh by the way was 8th in the league in OBP this year. That's 8th in whole league, not just SS. When was the last time we had a SS that could do that ? Plus, he's making 500k. Very cheap.

I guess I don't underdstand why people want to get Furcal for $15M / year and dump Theriot, when we need a LH bat in OF and some more pitching. We only have so much money we can spend. Furcal is 31 years old and injury prone, and if you look closely at his numbers, they are not worthy of $15M, nowhere near. He's good, but is he worth $15M ? C'mon. Ask the Dodgers if they were happy with his production over the last 3 years. I know what the answer will be.

We need guys like Theriot in our lineup. He's a catalyst.

coulda, shoulda, woulda....

Joe S, that's almost like my sour grapes with Hendry over trading away Josh Hamilton...LOL

***I'm going to post this in the Community section as well************

I believe this all goes back to management, and I've said this a number of times before.

Look at teams like the Phillies, Braves, Twins, Rays, D'Backs, Marlins, A's, Astros (a few years ago prior to new regime), Dodgers, etc.

What do all these teams have in common? Well, they all struggled at one time, and got high draft picks, BUT, in addition to that, they'd sign FA players that they had no intention of keeping beyond a year or two, and they'd load up on compensatory draft picks to replenish their system. They'd utilize their talent base in the minors to trade for significant pieces, most of which were up-and-coming players.

The Marlins probably do this better than any other organization. I mean, what big name talent hasn't played for the Marlins?!?!? It's absolutely ridiculous how many good players have been with the Marlins:
Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Preston Wilson, Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez, Edgar Renteria, Trevor Hoffman (Joe, you'd love that one), Darren Daulton, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Gonzalez, Luis Castillo, Mike Lowell, Charles Johnson, etc. The list just goes on.

So why do I mention these players? Well, case in point would be their development of Josh Beckett, and subsequent trade to the BoSox for Hanley Ramirez and others. Then, they get Jacobs from the Mets, and now they spin him off to the Royals for young talent. See, what the Marlins have that we don't, is two World Series Championships in last 11 years.

How long does a prospect take to develop in the minors? I would say it's about 4 years if they have no college experience. So, what the Marlins have done, is bought themselves a World Series in 1997, and used those FA's to their advantage through trades for young talent, or through the compensatory draft picks. After 2003, they did the same thing (minus the huge FA acquisitions)---what they did, was either trade their own arby-eligible players for young talent, or let their FA's walk for compensatory selections. The other teams I mentioned do the same exact thing.

So why can't we? Oh, we're busy giving away our high draft picks for guys like Howry, Eyre, Burnitz, Hawkins, Lilly (though he turned out just fine), and Soriano. The point is, we're just to impatient as an organization the last 10 years. Since our Wild Card in 1998, we got an itch to spend similar to what the Yankees did, and it's actually caused us to go in reverse as an organization.

You need exellent player development to win championships. The Phillies, Red Sox, White Sox, D'Backs, Angels, and others that missed rings, but got there---Rockies and Rays----have all found out that player development is key, because it allows you to go out and get that young up-and-coming talent through trades, without missing a beat as an organization. They go out and find young talent, and use their systems filled with excellent prospects, then replenish it through high draft picks.

Consider what the D'Backs might get this year. In the first three rounds, they very well might end up with close to 10 selections!!!! I know if I were a GM, I'd be like, "hmmmmmm, do I go out and sign a FA like Jason Marquis, who is a B level, after I lose Randy Johnson, or do I just make do with my prospects, and hope one pans out in favor of gaining an extra selection in the draft?hmmmmm. See, with that scenario alone, I'd have 3 chances of a pick panning out, whereas before, I'd only have 2 chances. Now, wait, I have 5 older free agents...all three could be considered type A or B, so technically, I could net 10 picks out of those guys. Wow, my odds just went from 3 selections to 13 selections. I'm pretty damn sure at least 3 of those will pan out."

Get my point?

That's why we either have to do what the Marlins did, and buy our Championship:

Furcal-SS
Hudson-2B
Dunn-RF
ARAM-3B
Soriano-LF
Teixeira-1B
Soto-C
Pie-CF

Z
Burnett
Harden
Dempster
Randy Johnson

That would be the definition of buying a championship.

It would also be the smart thing to do, to sign these guys to huge 1 year + option contracts, or even long-term with a guy like Teixeira (then dump him off after you win the championship).

But you don't win championships by giving guys like Lee no trade clauses, and hand-cuffing your ability to make deals in the best interest of the team.

Franchises that make stop-gap signings to fill holes are setting their teams up for failure in the end. It might be wise to let Dempster and Howry go to pick up draft picks, then re-sign Wood, and either trade the farm to get young proven talent, or buy a championship with the afforementioned players.

Am I the only one that notices this? I mean, Joe, you know those closers I mentioned in the other post...just think about all those stop-gap closers: Dave Smith, Mel Rojas, Hawkins, Beck, Randy Myers, etc.---none, except Beck really did much for us, but it cost us picks. Similarly, think about Burnitz, Alou, Soriano, Jacque Jones, etc.---position players that cost us picks. Even Jason Marquis I believe was a Type B. I mean, really, would it have been that bad to give Marshall his spot in the rotation?

It's okay to keep your own free agents...at least to some degree, but when you sign guys that really aren't going to push you over the top is what I have a problem with, and that's the big issue that's been going on with this team for so many years.

THE END!!! sorry for the long post

I read from a unreliable source that the cubs are close to a trade with san diego. He states the cubs will trade felix pie, ryan theriot, sean marshal and 1 of the two of ceda and veal

Well, not to say JH can't pull a trade off....but all the news reports here in San Diego...and by Kevin Towers own statements are that Greene and Peavy will not be packaged together.

Makes sense from a Cubs standpoint to find a way to do it....but everything here in San Diego indicates otherwise....

To try for a little fun here and offer a couple of counter points: Mark Twain and I have a sure way to make money in the stock markets--just like Aaron's management plan for free agents and big time player, 1-year contracts. It applies too to the other first round choices the Cubs could have made--which Joe S points out. Twain bought and I buy good stocks, and when they go up, we sell 'em. If they don't go up, we don't buy 'em.

Several of us have mentioned that the Cubs have a lot of bad first (and 2nd-3rd) round history in the draft. Yes, we could have had Utley instead of Montanez. But like the importance of buying good stocks (that we know all too well aren't fail-safe) you have to be good and lucky throughout the draft. A player's development is, in part a mystery. But buying "good quality" is important.

The Cubs got Soto with the 318th pick in the 11th round. DeRosa was a 7th round pick (Braves), Brian Giles, a 17th rounder (Cleveland), Andre Eithier a 2nd rounder (Dodgers) and Rich Haden, a 38th round selection (Mariners). Teixeira was the 5th pick in the draft his year--so his quality was apparent to the Rangers. My point is that we need to be good and lucky all through the draft. We need to find more Sotos, Giles and Hardens as well as do better in the first round.

Aaron's player management plan likely needs some work. It is good to gather draft picks, and it would be wonderful to have no long-term player contracts with no-trade clauses. Aaron cites the Phils signing free agents and then dumping them--gathering draft picks. He forgets that the Phils gave up draft picks to sigh the free agents in the first place.

There isn't enough money to sign the likes of Teixeira, Furcal, Hudson, and Burnett to huge 1 year contracts and then dump them in a year for draft picks.
Also, there's a reason why ARod, Santana, Aram, D and many others get the long-term, protected deals. That's what it takes to sign them in the cruddy, business side of baseball. They don't want to move often and they want long-term security.

What the Rockies have done with Holliday and the Marlins did in a few cases was move players in advance of their "afordable" contracts ending. Admittedly, the Marlins were so bad that they had a lot of early-in-the-round picks and blended those successfully with some guys who achieved stardom or had big years on the Marlins' watch.

Most of us agree that it makes sense to give up some futures for a Peavy who is under contract for an extended period. It's more dicey to give up a first round and a supplemental first round pick by signing Bobby Abreu. But some of us would do that, if we thought he would be our missing piece. In the end, all of the larger market teams and some of the small market teams have long-term contract guys. (The A's have Chavez for example.) These contracts do have their limitations, but not much can be done about it.

Aaron, I agree completely. When I first read after the season ended that JH was putting out feelers for Soriano I was thinking to myself, even if we have to eat some of his salary, I bet we would be able to do it for some nice prospects. I understand that since he is considered a star player that you would want at least some decent players in return, but sometimes you have to restock the system somehow. I would trade Soriano for lets say 2-3 GOOD prospects and maybe a decent draft pick or two. Not only could we restock the system a little bit but cut out what, at least 10-12 million in salary? Sounds good to me. On another note, I personally like Theriot. I don't think it's that people don't like him, I think it is a need to always want better, espically if you think you can get it. Espically for this team. Btw Joe S. didn't we have Pujols for a brief period of time as well? I could of swore we either drafted him or got him in a trade when he was still in the minors.

Sorry, forgot to add something about Theriot. Say for arguments sake that he was a top 10 or even 15 feilder at ss. What would everyone think of him then? Still wana trade him?

I don't think any team is going to give away 2 good prospects for Soriano and take on his bad contract. Maybe you could get someone to take him for nothing if you ate a small portion of his contract to get it down to market value and then you would free up a bunch of cash ... but I'd rather hold onto him than that option ... and it appears JH is thinking the same thing.

As for Pujols, we never had him. The Cards signed him orignally and he has always been with the organization. The Cubs did, however, draft 2008 CY Young award winner Tim Lincecum out of high school ... but he did not sign with them and went on to college.

I like JimK's Street and Smith idea ... solid bullpen arm and a good 4th OF who could compete for a starting job (and also a fine magazine). 97 win teams need tinkering like that ... not an overhaul.

As a sidenote, the much maligned (and rightly so) 1st round pick Montenez had a pretty good season in 2008 splitting time between AAA and the Orioles. He will likely be competing for a major league roster spot in Baltimore come March.

After some fact checking i found out why i thought pujols was once a cub. he played for the 'peoria chiefs" a ball team for st louis. odd, that's what our a ball team is called. i guess i'm missing something here. something about the minor leagues i'm not aware of? two teams with the same name?

There is only one Peoria Chiefs team but it has switched major league affiliations a number of times ... in the late 90's though early 2000's, the Chiefs were affilaited with the Cardinals. The Chiefs were affiliated with the Cubs both before and after their stretch of affiliation with the Cardinals. I'm not sure why or how these affiliations change. Does anyone know?