The following statement is brought to the readers of the CCO by Captain Obvious....Jake Peavy is a very good pitcher and one of the true aces of the game. Now that is out of the way, if Jim Hendry was to pull off a trade with Kevin Towers to bring Peavy and the remaining 4 years on his contract (with a club option for a fifth year) to the North Side, how would he be able to help Lou Piniella's crew three-peat as National League Central Division Champions?
Peavy has pitched in a very friendly home park and, in fact, all of the stadiums out west could be defined as pitcher friendly. With pitchers such as Peavy, location rarely matters, but in some cases, even the best of the best have struggled against an organization for the duration of a career, or may fare better in one park or another.
In order for the Cubs to make the post season for the third season in a row, the first order of business would be to win their division (another statement brought to you by Captain Obvious), but how exactly has the former National League Cy Young Award winner pitched against the other teams in the central, in their parks and at Wrigley?
Well, here is a look at the numbers....
Last season Jake Peavy posted a 10-11 record with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 27 games....the 27 starts was the lowest for Peavy since the 2004 season. Peavy spent time on the DL last season from May 20th (retroactive to May 15th) with a strained right elbow and was activated on June 12th. Peavy did not miss any additional time last season and pitched fewer than 6 innings in a single start only 3 times in 18 starts after returning from the disabled list and completed 7 innings of work in 7 of those 18 games.
Peavy finished the second half with a 3-6 record in 12 starts with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP while opponents hit .232 against him. In September, 1-2 in 3 starts with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
Career Innings Pitched Per Start
One of the knocks on Jake Peavy is the fact he won the Cy Young Award without tossing a complete game in 2007. The other is that he does not pitch deep into games.
- 2008 - 27 starts - 173 2/3 innings - 6.43 innings per start
- 2007 - 34 starts - 223 1/3 innings - 6.57 innings per start
- 2006 - 32 starts - 202 1/3 innings - 6.32 innings per start
- 2005 - 30 starts - 203 innings - 6.77 innings per start
Peavy threw 2860 pitches in 2008, 1814 for strikes. That is an average of 105.9 per start.
- Less than 100 pitches - 6 starts
- 100 - 110 pitches - 10 starts
- 110 - 120 pitches - 9 starts
- 120 or More - 2 starts
Peavy has 6 complete games since the 2005 season. For comparison, Jason Marquis has 4 and Carlos Zambrano has tossed 4 since 2005 as well.
Peavy's Numbers Against the Impact Bats in the Central
2008
- Jay Bruce - 2-for-4 with a strikeout
- Brandon Phillips - 1-for-3 with a strikeout
- Joey Votto - 1-for-1
- Lance Berkman - 2-for-4 with a triple, 2 walks and a strikeout
- Carlos Lee - 0-for-6
- Hunter Pence - 1-for-6 with a home run and a strikeout
- Miguel Tejada - 3-for-6 with a double and a strikeout
- Ryan Braun - 1-for-2 with a walk
- Prince Fielder - 1-for-4 with a double, 2 walks and 2 strikeouts
- Corey Hart - 0-for-6 with 2 strikeouts
- Adam LaRoche - 1-for-3 with 2 strikeouts
- Nate McLouth - 1-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout
- Rick Ankiel - 1-for-3 with a home run and 2 strikeouts
- Troy Glaus - 2-for-3 with 2 home runs
- Albert Pujols - 1-for-3
Career
- Jay Bruce - 2-for-4 with a strikeout
- Brandon Phillips - 3-for-16 with a double and 3 strikeouts
- Joey Votto - 1-for-1
- Lance Berkman - 8-for-32 with a triple, 2 home runs, 7 walks and 11 strikeouts
- Carlos Lee - 4-for-21 with 2 doubles, a walk and 5 strikeouts
- Hunter Pence - 1-for-6 with a home run and a strikeout
- Miguel Tejada - 4-for-9 with a double and 2 strikeouts
- Ryan Braun - 1-for-5 with a walk and 2 strikeouts
- Prince Fielder - 4-for-15 with 2 doubles, 2 walks and 5 strikeouts
- Corey Hart - 0-for-6 with 2 strikeouts
- Adam LaRoche - 3-for-10 with a home run, a walk and 4 strikeouts
- Nate McLouth - 1-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout
- Rick Ankiel - 1-for-3 with a home run and 2 strikeouts
- Troy Glaus - 7-for-15 with 4 home runs and 2 strikeouts
- Albert Pujols - 7-for-20 with a double, 2 home runs, 3 walks and 6 strikeouts
Peavy's Win-Loss Record against the NL Central
2008
- Cincinnati Reds - 0-0 in 1 start with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP (3 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings with 3 walks and 5 strikeouts)
- Houston Astros - 1-0 in 2 starts with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP (4 runs on 10 hits in 13 innings with 5 walks and 6 strikeouts)
- Milwaukee Brewers - 1-1 in 2 starts with a 1.29 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP (2 runs on 9 hits in 14 innings with 7 walks and 13 strikeouts)
- Pittsburgh Pirates - 1-0 in 1 start with a 1.29 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP (1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings with 3 walks and 10 strikeouts)
- St. Louis Cardinals - 0-1 in 1 start with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP (4 runs on 8 hits in 7 innings with no walks and 7 strikeouts)
Career
- Cincinnati Reds - 5-0 in 9 starts with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP
- Houston Astros - 7-4 in 14 starts with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP
- Milwaukee Brewers - 3-3 in 9 starts with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP
- Pittsburgh Pirates - 5-1 in 7 starts with a 1.85 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP
- St. Louis Cardinals - 3-3 in 8 starts with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP
Career Numbers in NL Central Parks
- Great American Ball Park - 3-0 in 5 starts with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP (2 home runs allowed in 31 1/3 innings)
- Minute Maid Park - 4-2 in 7 starts with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP (4 home runs allowed in 42 2/3 innings)
- Miller Park - 0-3 in 4 starts with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP (4 home runs allowed in 21 innings)
- PNC Park - 3-0 in 3 starts with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP (1 home run allowed in 20 innings)
- Busch Stadium - 1-1 in 2 starts with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP (4 home runs allowed in 13 innings)
Career Numbers at Wrigley Field
- 1-1 in 4 starts with 3.68 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP (2 home runs allowed in 22 innings)
If Jim Hendry could pull off a trade for Jake Peavy (and that would be a big if), and possibly resign Ryan Dempster, those two moves would allow Lou Piniella to insert Rich Harden into the fifth spot in his rotation....a spot that figures to suit Harden due to the fact Piniella could skip his turn more often during a long season. And at the same time, possibly free up Jason Marquis to be dealt.
One scenario that most are over looking would be for Jason Marquis to be included in the deal for Jake Peavy. Marquis is owed $9.875 million in 2009 (Peavy $11 million) and would save the Padres a little on their 2009 payroll and would be a free agent and off the books after next season. Marquis has very good career numbers at PETCO (1-1 in 3 starts with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP) and is 8-7 lifetime against the other teams in the West (3-1 in 6 starts, 7 games, with a 2.17 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP against the Giants. 3-1 in 8 starts, 9 games, with a 1.99 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP against the Dodgers. 2-5 in 9 starts, 10 games, with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP against the Diamondbacks. 5-3 in 11 starts, 13 games, with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP against the Rockies.).
If Jake Peavy is healthy he would give the Cubs a legitimate ace in the rotation and would slide Carlos Zambrano down a spot, which would better suit Big Z at this point in his career. A Peavy-Zambrano one-two punch, again if both are healthy, would give the Cubs one of the best combinations in the league....at least on paper.
Time for Trader Jim to get work and start making improvements....the conversations start at the General Managers' Meetings this week in Dana Point, California.
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Sorry Neil, I don't see anything in those stats that would make me want to spend that much money for Jake Peavy. Unless, of course, he never has to face Troy Glaus or Albert Pujols.
What is a realistic deal for Peavy? Would Marshall, Cedeno, Pie, Castillo, Ceda, and Thomas land us Peavy and Greene?
I agree that Peavy's numbers make me concerned. I think you can get more with a Burnett or Lowe, trade Zambrano and keep Dempster or get a Dempster replacement. I believe Hendry will pursue Peavy unfortunately
6 players for 2. No way on greene. Compare his #'s to Theriot's. No comparision. 3 of those guys are MLB ready. What we need is a real threat in the lineup. Someone who strikes fear in the other team. Sad to say but we haven't had that since Sammy.
Peavy would be great but not at the price it will cost to pry him away.
Jake Peavy...the asking price is high, but it'd pay off. Still, if they're looking for a pitcher who'd be worth a gamble, I have one name: Bartolo Colon. Cy Young pitchers do not just go bad and stay bad. Last year, I had the same impression on Cliff Lee, and look how well THAT would've paid off had someone traded away some low lever prospects and a mid-range player for him.
I'm going to say it right now: Bartolo Colon will be the steal of the offseason for whoever signs him.
Living in San Diego, I have gotten to watch Jake Peavy and he is without a doubt someone I want on the Cubs. He's a competitor and a class act. His arm is fine.
The knock of Peavy winning the Cy Young in 2007 is ridiculous. First off, complete games have gone out the window. With rare exceptions (Sabathia being one) they just don't happen. The Padres of 2007 were a prime example of why they don't happen. They had an ace closer in Trevor Hoffman (42 saves and a 2.98 ERA)and they had an awesome set-up man in Heath Bell (93 IP and a 2.02 ERA).
So, yes Jake didn't throw complete games, because like many teams in baseball, the end of the game is for the set-up man and closer to finish. The Padres in 2007 had two excellent pitchers closing games.
On to ballpark factors. I'm not sure I agree that the West ballparks are pitcher friendly. Certainly Petco Park is. However, I definitely would not call Arizona's ballpark pitching friendly. Nor would I cosider the Giants Park pitcher friendly. The Dodgers ballpark is borderline. At night during the early part and late part of the season yes the air is heavy and it plays bigger. However, night games during the summer and day games all year, the air is not heavy and it plays like a normal park. I'm sure if you look at numbers, yes those ballparks ranked in the bottom half (except Arizona) but aside from the Padres, I think that is more a result of the make up of the team. The Giants had a very young team with very little power, so of course their numbers will be down. The Dodgers, until Manny's arrival, were not a true homerun hitting team either.
So I think the lack of complete games and the homeruns per ballpark are stats that just don't add up.
Finally, it was reported out here in the San Diego Union Tribune that Towers is meeting with 3 teams at the GM meetings...reported to be the Cubs, Dodgers, and Braves. Towers is quoted as saying "if they are willing to step up, there's a deal there". The Braves had previosuly said they were not trading their young talent...I'm sure Towers does not want to trade Peavy to a division rival...leaving the door open for the Cubs. Towers was also quoted as saying it won't take a slew of players. "To me, any deal is going to be quality rather than quantity. It can be two or three if its the right two or three". I would think, for Peavy alone, that Marchall and Pie would do it. Perhaps even Cedeno.
Neil,
1. NL West is HITTER FRIENDLY, even with Pecto. (You forgot the hellic Coors and the bye-bye doublic Chase, not to mention the most doubles in AT&T, and most homers for the past 3 seasons out of Dodger.)
2. Career sub4. ERA in Wrigley is an ace to me. And it wasn't like he got lucky while pitching here at the friendly confine...
Dorasaga...thank you for pointing out I left out Marquis' numbers against the Rockies. I do not know what happened to them when I transferred my article. I went back and put them in.
Oh Captain, my Captain,
Our post season trip's begun.
We packed our bats a month ago
And since, not scored a run.
And far better, Neil, to be Captain Obvious than others heard from on occasion in other places--Captain Oblivious.
I don't think we get Peavy for the tradeable talent questions I rasised yesterday. As said before, I hope we are able to keep D.
A Boston writer did some interesting analysis yesterday. He sees D a good possibility for the Yankees--because CC and Burnett will say no to the pinstripes money. Burnett may declare today if he stays with the Jays or leaves. Boston guy says, Burnett could end up with the Cards. He thinks Fuentes (LRP) goes to the Mets.
Boston guy also says that Angels will push now to sign Teixeira with a huge contact, but that Boras's style of getting into competitive bidding may have the Angels dropping out. In that case, he says that Boston will be a bidder. My guess is that Tex stays with the Angels.
I'm anxious for two thngs to happen that will clarify the Cubs situation. One is for Manny, CC and Tex to find homes. Another is for the Cubs to give some indication as to what the budget goal is for 2009.
My guess on Manny is that he turns down 2 years and $55 mil to be offered by the Dodgers and goes to the Yankees for something like 4 years and $85 mil. Then, assuming that Torre likes Sori, we have a chance to send Sori and a prospect to the Dodgers for a deal that would include Ethier, a prospect and a bad contract like Pierre's (28 mil over 3yrs) or Schmidt's (12 mil in '09)
Come on people, we're talking about one of the premier pitchers in the game who is signed for 4yrs. The game today and the pitch count pitchers are on almost always dictates a starter only going 6 or 7 innings on most outings, thats why you try and have a solid bullpen, and besides would you want a manager like ned yost running cc sabathia out there every 4th day and letting him go the distance and throw 135 pitches...Peavy would be the ace of this staff and a guy that will give you everything he has for 7 innings or so....JH GO GET HIM!!!!
Peavy added the Yankees and Angels to his list on Monday....details on the Community Blog.
Peavy to the Yankess for Phil Hughes and a second top prospect (maybe Austin Jackson) makes a lot of sense for both teams.