Focusing In On the Central with Jake Peavy

The following statement is brought to the readers of the CCO by Captain Obvious….Jake Peavy is a very good pitcher and one of the true aces of the game. Now that is out of the way, if Jim Hendry was to pull off a trade with Kevin Towers to bring Peavy and the remaining 4 years on his contract (with a club option for a fifth year) to the North Side, how would he be able to help Lou Piniella’s crew three-peat as National League Central Division Champions?

Peavy has pitched in a very friendly home park and, in fact, all of the stadiums out west could be defined as pitcher friendly. With pitchers such as Peavy, location rarely matters, but in some cases, even the best of the best have struggled against an organization for the duration of a career, or may fare better in one park or another.

In order for the Cubs to make the post season for the third season in a row, the first order of business would be to win their division (another statement brought to you by Captain Obvious), but how exactly has the former National League Cy Young Award winner pitched against the other teams in the central, in their parks and at Wrigley?

Well, here is a look at the numbers….

Last season Jake Peavy posted a 10-11 record with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 27 games….the 27 starts was the lowest for Peavy since the 2004 season. Peavy spent time on the DL last season from May 20th (retroactive to May 15th) with a strained right elbow and was activated on June 12th. Peavy did not miss any additional time last season and pitched fewer than 6 innings in a single start only 3 times in 18 starts after returning from the disabled list and completed 7 innings of work in 7 of those 18 games.

Peavy finished the second half with a 3-6 record in 12 starts with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP while opponents hit .232 against him. In September, 1-2 in 3 starts with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.

Career Innings Pitched Per Start

One of the knocks on Jake Peavy is the fact he won the Cy Young Award without tossing a complete game in 2007. The other is that he does not pitch deep into games.

  • 2008 – 27 starts – 173 2/3 innings – 6.43 innings per start
  • 2007 – 34 starts – 223 1/3 innings – 6.57 innings per start
  • 2006 – 32 starts – 202 1/3 innings – 6.32 innings per start
  • 2005 – 30 starts – 203 innings – 6.77 innings per start

Peavy threw 2860 pitches in 2008, 1814 for strikes. That is an average of 105.9 per start.

  • Less than 100 pitches – 6 starts
  • 100 – 110 pitches – 10 starts
  • 110 – 120 pitches – 9 starts
  • 120 or More – 2 starts

Peavy has 6 complete games since the 2005 season. For comparison, Jason Marquis has 4 and Carlos Zambrano has tossed 4 since 2005 as well.

Peavy’s Numbers Against the Impact Bats in the Central

2008

  • Jay Bruce – 2-for-4 with a strikeout
  • Brandon Phillips – 1-for-3 with a strikeout
  • Joey Votto – 1-for-1
  • Lance Berkman – 2-for-4 with a triple, 2 walks and a strikeout
  • Carlos Lee – 0-for-6
  • Hunter Pence – 1-for-6 with a home run and a strikeout
  • Miguel Tejada – 3-for-6 with a double and a strikeout
  • Ryan Braun – 1-for-2 with a walk
  • Prince Fielder – 1-for-4 with a double, 2 walks and 2 strikeouts
  • Corey Hart – 0-for-6 with 2 strikeouts
  • Adam LaRoche – 1-for-3 with 2 strikeouts
  • Nate McLouth – 1-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout
  • Rick Ankiel – 1-for-3 with a home run and 2 strikeouts
  • Troy Glaus – 2-for-3 with 2 home runs
  • Albert Pujols - 1-for-3

Career

  • Jay Bruce – 2-for-4 with a strikeout
  • Brandon Phillips – 3-for-16 with a double and 3 strikeouts
  • Joey Votto – 1-for-1
  • Lance Berkman – 8-for-32 with a triple, 2 home runs, 7 walks and 11 strikeouts
  • Carlos Lee – 4-for-21 with 2 doubles, a walk and 5 strikeouts
  • Hunter Pence – 1-for-6 with a home run and a strikeout
  • Miguel Tejada – 4-for-9 with a double and 2 strikeouts
  • Ryan Braun – 1-for-5 with a walk and 2 strikeouts
  • Prince Fielder – 4-for-15 with 2 doubles, 2 walks and 5 strikeouts
  • Corey Hart – 0-for-6 with 2 strikeouts
  • Adam LaRoche – 3-for-10 with a home run, a walk and 4 strikeouts
  • Nate McLouth – 1-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout
  • Rick Ankiel – 1-for-3 with a home run and 2 strikeouts
  • Troy Glaus – 7-for-15 with 4 home runs and 2 strikeouts
  • Albert Pujols – 7-for-20 with a double, 2 home runs, 3 walks and 6 strikeouts

Peavy’s Win-Loss Record against the NL Central

2008

  • Cincinnati Reds – 0-0 in 1 start with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP (3 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings with 3 walks and 5 strikeouts)
  • Houston Astros – 1-0 in 2 starts with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP (4 runs on 10 hits in 13 innings with 5 walks and 6 strikeouts)
  • Milwaukee Brewers - 1-1 in 2 starts with a 1.29 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP (2 runs on 9 hits in 14 innings with 7 walks and 13 strikeouts)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates – 1-0 in 1 start with a 1.29 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP (1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings with 3 walks and 10 strikeouts)
  • St. Louis Cardinals – 0-1 in 1 start with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP (4 runs on 8 hits in 7 innings with no walks and 7 strikeouts)

Career

  • Cincinnati Reds – 5-0 in 9 starts with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP
  • Houston Astros – 7-4 in 14 starts with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP
  • Milwaukee Brewers – 3-3 in 9 starts with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP
  • Pittsburgh Pirates - 5-1 in 7 starts with a 1.85 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP
  • St. Louis Cardinals – 3-3 in 8 starts with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP

Career Numbers in NL Central Parks

  • Great American Ball Park – 3-0 in 5 starts with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP (2 home runs allowed in 31 1/3 innings)
  • Minute Maid Park - 4-2 in 7 starts with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP (4 home runs allowed in 42 2/3 innings)
  • Miller Park – 0-3 in 4 starts with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP (4 home runs allowed in 21 innings)
  • PNC Park – 3-0 in 3 starts with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP (1 home run allowed in 20 innings)
  • Busch Stadium – 1-1 in 2 starts with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP (4 home runs allowed in 13 innings)

Career Numbers at Wrigley Field

  • 1-1 in 4 starts with 3.68 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP (2 home runs allowed in 22 innings)

If Jim Hendry could pull off a trade for Jake Peavy (and that would be a big if), and possibly resign Ryan Dempster, those two moves would allow Lou Piniella to insert Rich Harden into the fifth spot in his rotation….a spot that figures to suit Harden due to the fact Piniella could skip his turn more often during a long season. And at the same time, possibly free up Jason Marquis to be dealt.

One scenario that most are over looking would be for Jason Marquis to be included in the deal for Jake Peavy. Marquis is owed $9.875 million in 2009 (Peavy $11 million) and would save the Padres a little on their 2009 payroll and would be a free agent and off the books after next season. Marquis has very good career numbers at PETCO (1-1 in 3 starts with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP) and is 8-7 lifetime against the other teams in the West (3-1 in 6 starts, 7 games, with a 2.17 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP against the Giants. 3-1 in 8 starts, 9 games, with a 1.99 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP against the Dodgers. 2-5 in 9 starts, 10 games, with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP against the Diamondbacks. 5-3 in 11 starts, 13 games, with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP against the Rockies.).

If Jake Peavy is healthy he would give the Cubs a legitimate ace in the rotation and would slide Carlos Zambrano down a spot, which would better suit Big Z at this point in his career. A Peavy-Zambrano one-two punch, again if both are healthy, would give the Cubs one of the best combinations in the league….at least on paper.

Time for Trader Jim to get work and start making improvements….the conversations start at the General Managers’ Meetings this week in Dana Point, California.

Quote of the Day

"Sometimes you have to stop worrying, wondering, and doubting and just have faith that things will work out." - Steve Jobs
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