Another day and more rumors.... The Cubs are focused on acquiring Jake Peavy according to multiple reports and some are beginning to think if Jim Hendry fails to land Peavy, not only would he have lost out on one of his targets of the off-season but his pursuit of Peavy could end up costing the Cubs two of their own free agents....Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood. Both Dempster and Wood appear headed for the open market while according to a report from Buster Olney, Hendry is trying to swing a three-team deal that would give the Padres the package they need for last year's Cy Young Award winner.
Bob Nightengale from USA Today mentioned Tuesday on the Baseball Beat that he feels Jake Peavy will end up with the Cubs but it will take a third team to get the deal done....a statement consistent with Buster Olney's report. But is Jake Peavy worth dealing a package of players that could include Josh Vitters and Welington Castillo, along with Sean Marshall, among others?
The National League and American League Managers of the Year will be announced on Wednesday afternoon, 1:00 CT (2:00pm Eastern) with Joe Maddon of the Rays expected to take the AL honors. Lou Piniella is in the running for the NL honor, and some consider him the favorite, after leading the Cubs to their second straight division championship and a league best 97 wins.
Here is the rest from the mill along with a truly future shock from Baseball Prospectus and a little food for thought....
How much is enough for Jake Peavy? Is Jim Hendry risking loosing both Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood? Only time....and patience (there is that word again) will answer those questions but one thing is for sure the Cubs are in 'win now mode'. But if Hendry swings and eventually misses out on Jake Peavy and cannot resign Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood are they risking a chance to make it to the playoffs next year? The best team during the regular season a year ago first must get through 162 games next season before having a chance to erase the memory of the last two Octobers.
While depending on Dempster to perform any where close to what he did last year is a risk all in its own, trying to build a pitching staff without Dempster and Wood as well as finding a veteran to replace the innings that Bobby Howry provided last year could put the Cubs in a difficult situation next season. While Howry was less than consistent, and at times the worst option Lou Piniella could have chosen, he still pitched in 72 games and finished with a 7-5 record (with a save), a 5.35 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. His 70 2/3 innings (lowest total for Howry since the 2004 season) is a lot to replace.
Ryan Dempster, on the other hand, won 17 games, finished sixth in the Cy Young voting Tuesday....and did not miss a start. His 2.96 ERA was lowest on the team in 33 starts. Was Dempster's performance in Game One a preview of what is to come or was it just a bad game? That apparently is the 4-year and $50 million dollar question.
Then there is sentimental fan favorite Kerry Wood who put together a solid season in his first as a closer. While 'Wild Woody' had a tendency to hit batters from time to time and not to mention the 'meltdown in Cincinnati', Wood did not miss any time due to arm or shoulder issues, it was a blister on his finger that landed him on the DL. Wood pitched in 65 games, saved 34 and posted a 3.26 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP....just 18 walks with 84 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings.
Rumored names such as Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno are not that appealing to the Padres according to Jim Memolo (WGN Radio) and Bruce Miles mentioned on Tuesday night it could take a package centered around Josh Vitters and Welington Castillo, along with Sean Marshall and others to get the Peavy deal done. While many would not like to see Hendry trade away the Cubs' top prospect for Peavy, the Cubs would receive compensation if they offer arbitration to Dempster and Wood and lose them to free agency. Both are Type A free agents and they could receive as much as two first round picks and two sandwich picks from Wood and Dempster's new teams (compensation for a Type A free agent is a first round draft pick and a sandwich pick, in between rounds one and two of the draft...the Cubs drafted Josh Donaldson with the sandwich pick they received from the Dodgers signing Juan Pierre before the 2007 season)
Baseball Prospectus released their list of the Cubs Top 11 prospects on Tuesday...and the future does not look too bright on the North Side. Most of the information is by subscription only but here is the not too flattering list:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Josh Vitters
Four-Star Prospects
2. Jeff Samardzija
3. Jose Ceda
Three-Star Prospects
4. Hak-Ju Lee
5. Andrew Cashner
6. Tyler Colvin
7. Dae-Eun Rhee
8. Ryan Flaherty
Two-Star Prospects
9. Welington Castillo
10. Donald Veal
11. Micah Hoffpauir
Kevin Goldstein stated "the Cubs are a very tough team to rank" and the prospect ranking after the Cubs top three "are a bit of a mess". He added the other seven could be mixed up and shifted around without much difference. Tyler Colvin had Tommy John surgery and so did Dae-Eun Rhee....both are expected back next season. Goldstein was complimentary about Jose Ceda and of all the players on his list, other than Jeff Samardzija, Ceda could have the biggest impact for the big league team next year.
Goldstein summed up his report on the Cubs system with the following paragraph:
"Yup, that's about it. The Cubs are not a team based on youth, even Soto turns 26 in January. They are also not a team in need of a youth movement, and that's a good thing, because this is a weak system in which finding any future Cub stars requires quite a bit of dreaming."
If Goldstein is accurate, and there is no reason to doubt he is, the statement the 'Cubs are in win now mode' could not be further from the truth. Acquiring Jake Peavy could cost the Cubs Josh Vitters but would allow them to add a legitimate ace to a solid staff that already has Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden and Jason Marquis under contract. Adding Peavy might cost them Ryan Dempster, but they could receive two picks in next year's draft for a system in need of an overhaul....and in turn improve their rotation from last year, at least on paper.
Jim Hendry has to either make the deal for Peavy happen or turn his attention to ensuring his rotation and bullpen does not resemble those horrible staffs from two and three seasons ago.
Jake Peavy
According to a report on MLB.com, the Braves are "confident in their offer for Jake Peavy" and they think the Padres may be "keeping the Cubs in play to use as leverage to possibly pry at least one more prospect from the Braves." According to multiple reports, Atlanta's offer is for Yunel Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez or Jordan Schafer plus either Jo-Jo Reyes or Charlie Morton. "Multiple Major League sources have said that this package is more significant than anything the Cubs could offer."
The Braves are frustrated with the negotiations and some think the talks could drag out until Thanksgiving while some have mentioned "sometime before the Winter Meetings"....which start on December 8th.
Bruce Miles joined Jim Memolo on WGN Radio Tuesday night and discussed the Peavy rumors. Miles said that Peavy has not officially signed his no-trade waiver and mentioned players such as Josh Vitters, Welington Castillo and Sean Marshall are possibly are on the table for Peavy. He added the Padres are into sluggers and pitchers and Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno does not meet either of those descriptions.
Miles added the "ball is in the Padres court" and he thinks the Cubs offer is a good deal. Miles said the Cubs have money to play with the off-season but do have a budget and once the Peavy deal is done they still need to add a left-handed bat and a veteran in the bullpen. Miles thinks it will be hard for the Cubs to trade for Jake Peavy and resign Ryan Dempster. Miles finished with an interesting tidbit, "the Cubs would love to trade Jason Marquis."
Ryan Dempster
The list of teams interested in Ryan Dempster grew on Tuesday. According to a report in the Toronto Globe and Mail, the Blue Jays might be interested in Dempster. The Globe and Mail stated, "there is a school of thought that says the Blue Jays might have a shot at Ryan Dempster, the native of Gibson, B.C., should the Cubs acquire Jake Peavy from the Padres."
The Globe and Mail added Dempster is willing to give the Cubs a discount if they pry Peavy from the Padres in order to "form what would be a beastly starting rotation." Jeff Blair thinks Chicago is where Dempster's heart is and that the Cubs and Dempster "will make it work."
Well, that's the latest and I'm sticking to it!
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We need Dempster in the clubhouse! Fans need Wood back in the fold as well as the back end of the bullpen. Nedd another innings eater in the bullpen to replace Howry. If I were GM, I would platoon Fukodome and Johnson in CF. Platoon Lee and Hoffpauir. See who win those battles too! Look for a left handed hitting RF and maybe a leadoff guy.
In regard to the peavy trade. Let's see..... A former Cy Young winner that is signed long term in exchange for relatvley unproven prospects? I am always surprised that proven talent in exchange for potential is even a debatible issue.
There is no doubt our farm system is very thin. I'm surprised though that Wellington Castillo only ranks 2-stars. He is a raw but talented defensive catcher, and has a developing bat. I don't get that one.
Other fans are going to disagree on Hoffpauir, based on all the "trade D-Lee and start Hoff" notes I have seen, but I've said all along he is a nice bench player, nothing more.
congrats to Lou on manager of the year. ?Now he has more power to be a congratulator!!lol!
Not to Worry, Faithful. I saw the future at the end of the tunnel--before the light was turned off as a cost savings measure in our economic hard times.
The Braves (likely) or the Angels/Dodgers will get Peavy. While I recognize that Vitters could be traded by the Padres should we do the deal, the Pads have both Kouzmanoff and Headley to play 3rd. They have higher priorities than Vitters. So, Not to Worry, Faithful!
Dempster and Wood were told that they could shop the open market if they thought any deal offered by the Cubs was too much of a discount. Demp likely signs early or late at something like 4 and $52 mil--which is likely within a mil or so per year of what he could get elsewhere. And I think it's excessive pessimism to think that there is anything about D's circumstances that suggest he won't win 15 or more next year. Hell, Burnett and Peavy have health concerns and Lowe is older.
Wood, if he thinks he has to have a 3 year deal could leave, because we have Marmol ready to be the closer. So Not to Worry, Faithful, we likely keep Dempster and have a decent shot at Wood. And we have an alternative for Wood.
Our prospects are better than some think--including Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. In the case of Hoffpauir, Goldstein,s bias that advanced age trumps current performance results in downplaying that Hoffpauir has demonstrated that he can hit AND play a very solid first base in the majors--in a good number of AB's. Goldstein simply blew the rating on Castillo. His bias too runs to the youngest players who were picked in the early rounds--so Cashner and Flaherty appear on the list and guys like Spears, Barney and Caridad who have played well at higher levels and are getting it done in the AZ Fall League--don't appear at all. So Not to Worry, Cubs Faithful.
Will JH be able to improve a team that is still capable of winning 90 games next year. Yes for sure and maybe only in the ranks of our Little People. If we do lose Wood or are able to trade a guy like Dome or Marquis or (in what would be a miracle) Soriano, we will have opportunities for a couple of name additions. Names like Putz, Hoffman and Street come to mind. If the Dodgers lose Manny, maybe (maybe) we can move Soriano for a guy like Ethier and Piere's bad contract. So Not to Worry, Faithful, we should go to spring training somewhat improved and expecting that our Big People will do better than they did last year. None of those rascals had career years.
Is Peavy worth the following:
Vitters (unproven farm guy)
Wellington (unproven farm guy)
Marshall (solid #4 or #5 starter material)
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Was Rich Harden worth Patterson and whats-his-face? Absolutely!
I am not saying we win more than 97 games as a result, but I think anytime you add a true ace to your staff, you are making yourselves more competitive in a short playoff series.
The regular season hasn't been a problem for the Cubs the past two years...the playoffs have.
Peavy, Harden, Zambrano in a short series? Just give us the trophy, then...
I like Dempster, but that was a career year he just had (think: Mike Bielecki).
What we need, an offense, is a very consistent (not streaky) hitter to add to the lineup, that will keep the lineup moving along. Who that is, I am not really sure. How about Magglio Ordonez returning to Chicago?
I am not sure if many of you read the sun-times today, but I suggest you do. I would be very careful about giving up the farm for Peavy. To me, there are way too many red flags with this guy.
1.) First off, Petco is BY FAR, the best pitchers park in baseball. Just look at home/road splits for Peavy and you will see there is a huge difference. Not good.
2.) He has shoulder / elbow problems that have landed him on DL 4 times. Not good.
3.) NL west is worst divsion in baseball, which means he's been facing very weak lineups for half his games. Not good.
4.) Why is SD trying to dump a 27 year old pitcher that just won CY young last year ? Wouldn't you want to build your team around someone like that ? not good.
I'm telling you all, the grass is not always greener on the other side, be careful what you wish for. I think this is huge mistake if we end up giving them Vitters or Theriot. And Khalil Greene ? OMG nooooo !!!!!!!!! Please no. He is awful.
I say we go after Nate McClouth from Pitt...He's LH, young, great OF, plays CF, good power,....forget Peavy.
just my .02 cents
cc002600....
Take a minute a check out the following links:
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/11/peavy_central.php
Career - http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6872/splits;_ylt=As2bc3q1nrDiPt.8xlhc.oiFCLcF?year=career&type=Pitching
2006 - http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6872/splits;_ylt=AmmuS0EDatPGG5pAEjuy7dCFCLcF?year=2006&type=Pitching
2007 - http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6872/splits;_ylt=AmmuS0EDatPGG5pAEjuy7dCFCLcF?year=2007&type=Pitching
2008 - http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6872/splits;_ylt=AsbZlMQ2qf3egYwQkK8F3UWFCLcF?year=2008&type=Pitching
Jason B....Peavy is worth Vitters, Wellington and Marshall--but that won't get him.
Neil, thanks very much for adding those links. But I have already read through Peavy's stats, and I'm still skeptical. Like I mentioned before, his home/road splits are very telling. His career ERA on road is a full run higher at 3.80. That's not that great.
Everyone has to understand that petco is not a "good" pitchers park. It's like pitching in the grand canyon, it's absolutely HUGE. When you get a chance take a look at the rankings for all 30 MLB parks in terms of runs scored. Petco has ranked dead last out of 30 four straight years. Not 26th, or 24th or 23rd...DEAD LAST every year. That really says a lot.
I'm not saying that I would not be happy if cubs were able to get Peavy, but I'm a little amused at how people are just so willing to give up anything (i.e. Vitters / Ceda / Theriot). Someone before mentioned that he doesn't understand why we even debate trading potential for proven talent. Well, let me ask you ...we traded for Juan Pierre 2 years ago ("proven talent") for Ricky Nolasco ("potential" ) ...how'd that work ? Nolasco won 15 games last year for bad Marlins team. How would he look in our 09 rotation ? And Pierre was complete bust.
My only point is that people are so willing to just "give up the farm" or send over whoever we have for a guy like Peavy, and I think we're going to be very disappointed when he comes over and his numbers won't be the same. And oh by the way, we still need bullpen help, and LH hitting. Trade away the farm for peavy and then what ? Especially when we will most likely lose wood or dempster, maybe both.
If we can get him without giving 5 guys or ithout giving up Vitters ot Theriot, then I say ok...otherwise I say no !!
CC002600,
I actually agree with everything you just said.
I think the whole "give up the farm" thing with Pierre had a lot to do with filling a need. We needed a lead-off hitter badly. That's a dangerous position to be in, and while Pierre had a lot of hits for us, he didn't turn it on until we were out of it, and was a terrible bust for us...a one year rental.
This year, in a way, I see the Peavy trade as need-based. Most experts say we don't need more pitching, especialy if we re-sign Dempster, citing that we'd have: Z, Harden, Dempster, Lilly, and Marquis already. Oh really? Perhaps the same people didn't realize Z and Harden both missed significant time last year, and in Harden's case, can be expected to miss the same, if not more time next year.
Losing two of your top pitchers to significant time does NOT qualify as a solid rotation. It's very shaky at best right now, and that's why Peavy would qualify as a need.
I hold the same fear, that we get rid of too much. Gallagher, Patterson, Murton, and Donaldson were nothing more than spare parts. Murton, Patterson, and Donalson were all blocked at LF, 2B, and C respectively for years to come. Gallagher was the only one that we might've been able to use in the near future. Keep in mind, we also received Gaudin, a very serviceable swingman. We received that based on injury concerns, and it was a good trade for both sides. The A's were tired of Harden's injuries, while we had depth with Marshall, Hart, and Guzman coming back from injury to serve as swingmen in the event that Harden needed extra rest.
In a way, I see Peavy in the same light as Harden. While he has made far more starts than Harden in the last few years, he still has shoulder (very concerning) and elbow issues. Throw in the fact that he's about the same age as Z, and the fact they both logged significant innings already in their careers---and Z has already shown effects of the abuse on his arm---and it makes you think twice about giving up the proverbial farm.
As I've said before, I'd give up only spare parts for Peavy at this juncture. Guys like Marshall, Hart, Castillo, Colvin, Hoffpauir, Cedeno, Pie, Veal, Atkins, etc., are all blocked at the MLB level, and are therefore expendable. I still don't buy the explanation some people give that prospects trump experienced players in trades. With Marshall, Hoffpauir, and Cedeno, you have 3 guys that had good success at the MLB level. The Braves have only Escobar to offer with MLB experience (in terms of what's rumored). I'd say we'd have the upper hand.
I bet there's not a team in baseball that would take Marshall, Hoffpauir and Cedeno over Escobar, Hernandez and JoJo Reyes or Charlie Morton. Escobar and Hernandez are the 2 most desireable players out of tose 6.
As for McClouth, he'd be a great addition, but I've read the Pittsburgh wants a ton for him.
OK...not sure where to start with this, but there are some things that need correcting that I have read here.....
I think the best place to start is with the most ridiculous comment that Juan Pierre was a complete bust.....
That's a joke. Pierre was brought in to be a leadoff hitter for us and play CF and he did both very well. He played all 162 games in CF, never taking a day off...and played PERFECT defense....didnt not have a single error. As for playing all 162 games...do you know how many Cubs Players have played in all 162 games (or more) in the HISTORY of the team? That would be a short list of Ron Santo, Billy Williams, Ernie Banks, Sammy Sosa ans JUAN PIERRE. Pretty good company.
As for batting the guy hit .292 which was just about his career average and an improvement by 16 points from his previous season. He had 204 hits. That ranks 12th ALL TIME on the Cubs for a single season. With the exception of Billy Williams who had just one more hit (205) in 1970, the other ten players ahead of Pierre played prior to 1937!
He set a career high in doubles with 32, tied his career highs in triples (13) and homeruns (3) and also added 58 stolen bases as our leadoff man, which by the way was the highest total for stolen bases for a season on the Cubs in over 100 years!!
So just how was the guy a bust???
As for judging the trade, the Cubs knew he was signed for one year. He had one heck of a year as a leadoff man and centerfielder. The Cubs opted to let him go elsewhere as a free agent.
Yes, Ricky Nolasco had a very good year with Florida last year. But, will he sustain over the long haul? Thats the part of trades and giving up prospects. Some pan out and some dont. The also got Sergio Mitre from us....that didnt work out quite so well for them.
On to Jake Peavy and the points that were made:
His disabled list trips. He has not been on the DL 4 times. He has been on the DL 2 times. Once last year (May 20th, 15-day DL for a strained elbow) and once in 2004 (May 27th, 15-day DL for strained forearm tendon).
Petco Park is indeed a GREAT pitchers park. That's a fact. It's also a fact that his ERA is almost a full point higher on the road than at home. However, looking at his stats, the breakdown of the higher ERA can be attributed to the fact he gives up more home runs on the road because Petco is so large. 81 given up on the road compared to 37 at Petco.
It was stated that the NL West has been a weak division, that is true. What is not true is that there have been weak lineups. Without listing a ton of names, how about a sampling of NL WEST stars over the last 4 or 5 years:
Barry Bonds
Jeff Kent
Vinny Castilla
Todd Helton
Matt Holliday
Chris Young
Luis Gonzalez
Garrett Atkins
Adrienne Beltre
The problem with the NL West has not been the hitting it has been the pitching. Keep in mind several of the stadiums in the NL West are hitters parks. Colorado??? Arizona?? To a degree Dodger Stadium?? To point, Jakes WORST Road numbers are at those three Stadiums:
In Arizona 5.78 ERA w/ 17 HR's allowed
In Colorado 4.59 ERA w/ 8 HR's allowed
In LA 3.46 ERA w/ 8 HR's allowed
Jake has not faced weak line ups in the NL West and several of the parks are hitters parks.
As for why to dump a 27 year old pitcher and not build arouns him...this has been discussed many times. Simple answer...SALARY DUMP. They kept Giles with a 9 million dollar option to appease fans. But they are trading Peavy and probably letting Hoffman walk because they are cutting salary.
Peavy may have the advantage of Petco, but that doesn't affect his K's which are always up there. His walks are usually low.
In fact here's a stat: Jake Peavy ranks 8th ALL TIME on the WHIP leader board. (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched) That includes Petco and EVERY other park.
He led the NL last year in WHIP with a 1.06. In fact he won the CY YOUNG last year and was a TRIPLE CROWN winner leading the NL with 19 wins, a 2.54 ERA and 260 K's.
In fact, since 1946 the ONLY pitching triple crown winners have been:
Jake Peavy
Randy Johnson
Dwight Gooden
Sandy Koufax
Steve Carlton
Roger Clemens
Pedro Martinez
Johan Santana
Pretty Good Company.
Other stats last year for Peavy:
2nd fewest hits per 9 innings 6.81
2nd W/L % .760
1st K's per 9 innings 9.67
3rd in innings 223.3
2nd in starts 34 (tops was 35)
The question of durability has been brought up. Note that last year he was 3rd in innings pitched and made only one less start than the league high. In 2006 he made just 3 less starts than the league high and in 2005 made 5 less starts than the league high.
Who knows if we get Jake, he may go to Atlanta. But I wanted to set the record straight that he is a top pitcher despite the fact he pitches half his games at Petco.
Joe S, thannks for the thoughtful response, but I still respectfully disagree with most of what you said.
First off, Juan Pierre, ok, maybe I chose my words incorrectly. The point I was trying to make is that the TRADE was a bust. But please, don't make Pierre out to be the second coming of Lou Brock. He's a slap singles hitter that throws like a girl. Not too mention, yes, he stole 58 bases, but you also failed to mention that his success ratio on stealing bases is terrible, he gets caught an awful lot. And for a singles hitter, he doesn't walk, so his OBP is never that good. And oh by the way, he has ZERO power, ZERO. Plus, would you really want to be paying this guy $9M ? C'mon. How fast do you think Dodgers would dump this guy right now, if they could find a sucker to take that salary ? Good luck with that. Doesn't that speak volumes for how good he is ?They loved him so much last year that he found himself on the bench for a good part of it. So please, don't tell me how great this guy is, he's not. Sitting here 2 years after that trade, would you rather have Nolasco or Pierre ? That's the point. I think we all know the answer to that.
Now for Peavy. You are still missing the point. I know all the stats, I have seen them. And I'm not saying he is not a good pitcher, he is. The point I'm trying to make is that his numbers are skewed by pitching half his games in PETCO. It's no different than looking at guys differently who played half their games at Coors putting up monster power numbers.(Note: Since they began putting the games balls in the humidors at Coors, it's not the HR haven it once was, but that's a different issue). You said that his road ERA is 1 run higher due to the more HR given up on road vs. Petco, well, DUH !! That's the point. Balls that travel 390 feet in Petco are outs, at every other MLB park its 20 rows back for a 3 run HR. Don't you think that matters ? It's makes a HUGE difference. If you look closely at his career road numbers, they are good, but they don't scream CY young ACE. I'm sorry. And if the cubs, or anyone esle, acquires this guy, those numbers are way more indicative or represenative of the pitcher you are going to get. That's the main point. An ERA of 3.80, which is his career road ERA, is not that impressive.
And yea, he's a strikeout pitcher, but that has downside too. higher pitch counts. More stress on the arm. (see Wood and Prior)
And that list of NL hitter you gave ? Thats's embarrasing. Half of those guys on that list are way past their prime at the twilight of their career. Helton ? Gonzalez ? Bonds ? Castilla ? Kent ? Please. That's weak. Just look at the team batting from last year - Total runs scored - Colorado 18th, Ariz - 20th, LA 24th, SF - 29th. How can you say that the NL west is not the weakesst hitting divsion in all of baseball ?
And Dodger stadium is one of the best pitcher's parks as well, it is NOT a good hitter's park.
So all I'm saying is that when you combine all of these factors, Peavy's numbers will not look the same in someone else uniform. mark my words. And I didn't even address the shoulder / elbow concerns. If you can steal this guy, great, but I think it would be a HUGE mistake to give up 4 or 5 really good prospects, expecially if we're talking about Vitters...no, no, no...