The Hot Stove heated up a then caught fire on Wednesday night when Ken Rosenthal reported the Cubs are the front-runners to land Jake Peavy according to major league sources. Rosenthal also reported the Cubs have offered Ryan Dempster a 4-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $50 million dollars....what a neighborhood.
According to Rosenthal, "The Cubs' young pitching is not as close to the majors as the Braves' but is still attractive to the Padres, sources say." Rotoworld speculated players such as Felix Pie, Sean Marshall, Ronny Cedeno, Mike Fontenot, Rich Hill and Donald Veal could be in the talks for Peavy. Rosenthal reported a deal that would land Peavy in blue pinstripes could cost the Cubs Kerry Wood.
One question, is Jake Peavy this off-season's Brian Roberts? On the last day of the GM Meetings, here is the rest from the mill....
Rafael Furcal
According to a report from the LA Times, the Cubs are one of seven teams interested in signing Rafael Furcal. The Cubs missed out on Furcal three years ago when Ned Colletti and the Dodgers swept in and offered a more lucrative contract.
Furcal is looking for a 4-year deal and his agent, Paul Kinzer, does not think Furcal's surgically repaired back should affect Furcal receiving a new contract that "would run to the end of his career."
Furcal would like to stay with the Dodgers, and Colletti would like to keep the shortstop and dangerous leadoff hitter (when healthy) but Frank McCourt, the Dodgers' owner, has given Furcal's agent, through a meeting with Ned Colletti, the feeling that Furcal should "explore the free agent market."
Furcal turned 31 in October and played in 159 games in 2006, 138 games in 2007 and only 36 games in 2008. Furcal proved during the NLDS that he is an impact player....when on the field.
Furcal's Career Stats from Yahoo Sports
Derek Lowe
On Tuesday night and Wednesday, the former Red Sox and Dodgers starter and closer, as well as sinker baller extraordinaire, Derek Lowe was connected to the Cubs by two members of the mainstream media. Dave van Dyck stated, "one possibility to replace Dempster, or even to be added if he returns, is Dodgers' free agent Derek Lowe." Lowe is looking for only a 3-year deal. Lowe's agent is Scott Boras, so it may be 3 years but it will be expensive for the Cubs to sign a pitcher seemingly made to pitch at Wrigley Field.
According to a report in the Daily News, the Mets are interested in Derek Lowe....as well as Ryan Dempster.
Ryan Dempster
The Cubs' former closer turned a lot of heads last season and is about to cash in....either with the Cubs or some other team. The Mets are "looking at him as a starter" according to the Daily News but the latest from Ken Rosenthal about an offer from the Cubs in the 4-year, $50 million dollar range could keep Dempster on the North Side for the foreseeable future.
Paul Sullivan and Dave Kaplan discussed on Wednesday night that the Cubs are going to let Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood test the market in order to make sure what the Cubs are offering is a fair deal. Sullivan said he could not imagine them leaving if the offers are fair.
Kerry Wood
As mentioned, Ken Rosenthal reported on Wednesday night that if the Cubs acquire Jake Peavy and resign Ryan Dempster it could spell the end of Kerry Wood's career as a Cub.
"If the Cubs acquired both pitchers, they might need to part with free agent closer Kerry Wood, reduce their payroll in other areas and pursue a more inexpensive left-handed hitting outfielder than previously planned."
Joe Beimel
Paul Sullivan mentioned on Sports Central on Wednesday night that Joe Biemel could be an option in the Cubs bullpen to replace the innings logged last season by Bobby Howry. Sullivan said Biemel will be less expensive than other options and has experience as a setup man.
Joe Beimel's Career Stats from Yahoo Sports
Odds and Ends
Paul Sullivan mentioned on Wednesday night that the Cubs do not seem interested in Bobby Abreu.
Felix Pie is out of options and Lou Piniella's recent comments concerning a Reed Johnson-Kosuke Fukudome platoon in center next season likely means Pie is on his way out of the organization. Sullivan added Piniella "does not have enough patience for Pie."
Kosuke Fukudome is still in Chicago and has not left for Japan yet. Both Kaplan and Sullivan expect him to return this week.
Setting the Bar
According to a report from the Tribune, the Cardinals set the market for starting pitchers this winter when they gave Kyle Lohse a 4-year, $41 million dollar deal. Most think Ryan Dempster is worth more.
Kerry Wood's new contract could depend on what Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez sign for. Wood did his job in his first year as a closer, but with Kerry Wood the concern will always center on his injury history.
Bob Brenly
While it appeared Len Kasper would have his familiar partner back next season after the Brewers hired Ken Macha, Bob Brenly was mentioned in a report from the Tribune as being one of seven candidates being interviewed for the manager's job in Seattle. Brenly, along with Joey Cora, Willie Randolph, Ned Yost, Bobby Valentine, Lloyd McClendon and Jim Riggleman are "expected to be interviewed."
Towers and Hendry
While rumors continue to fly surrounding a possible deal that would land Jake Peavy in a Cubs' uniform, give Jim Hendry a little credit. Hendry is known for working the phones, apparently he can work the links and the lanes as well. According to a report in the San Diego Union Tribune, Hendry and Padres' GM Kevin Towers played golf together earlier in the week and Hendry bowled with Towers on Tuesday as a part of a GM function.
Well....that's the latest, and I'm sticking to it.
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Man, that would be one hell of a rotation, to say the least. Let's see if Trader Jim can pull this one off.
I would also still like to see him get a true leadoff hitter as well.
I have a MAN Crush on our GM!!!
LOL Jim is just an amazing communicator! Under his management we have seen and been rumoed with, some of the most important FAs as well as aquiring REAL MLB talent in decades!!
We are going to look different next year but for the better. How nice is it that we are always at least mentioned as players for aquiring top talent.
I like giving Pie a new start, I like the Furcal interest(only because he is more talented than Theriot) I would LOVE to see Derek Lowe and that sinker at Wrigley. We MUST retain Demps and let's let Woody and Lee go. It's a business first and we need to be in the business of winning not loyalty to any one person. TEAM FIRST.
GO CUBBIES!!
easy there guys. He still hasn't done anything truly great and difference-making for this team since the ARAM and Lofton trades.
Sure, he's signed "stars" like Soriano, and Fukudome (in his own country he's a star), and traded for the oft-injured Harden, but especially in the case of Soriano, was it really the best move for the team, or did Hendry and the Trib just make a huge splash to make a splash and keep fans excited? That's what you have to think about.
So while the obvious choices for perfect fit in the FA/trade season would appear to be:
Furcal, Dunn, Beimel, re-sign Wood and Dempster, Abreu, Lowe, and Sabathia
trades would be getting rid of bad contracts: Soriano, Lee, Fukudome (if anyone will take him) and Marquis.
trades for would include: Peavy, Greene (if you can't sign Furcal), and maybe Beltran (if the Mets would take Soriano---swap of bad contracts there).
Why do I mention those players?
-Well, offensively speaking, we need a lead-off hitter with at the very least a .350 career OBP, has extra base power, is fast, and preferably bats left/switch.
-Since Fukudome regressed so badly last year, we'll need to replace his high OBP from the start of the year.
-We need a power lefty bat that can play a corner OF spot.
-We need a dominating starter due to health concerns of Z and Harden.
-We need an innings eater/groundball type to replace Marquis.....so, here's your replacements for all....
1)Furcal would accomplish the lead-off and better SS in one swoop
2)Abreu and Dunn would replace both Soriano (if we can trade) and Fukudome with very high OBP's. Additionally, if his minor league averages are any indication, along with his MLB thus far, Hoffpauir would appear to best Lee's output
3)Beltran could also accomplish the power lefty (though he's switch) bat on a corner spot if necessary.
4)Sabathia or Peavy would qualify as a dominating starter
5)Lowe would project as the groundball/innings eater replacement
Look, I know that we don't have all the money in the world to accomplish all of this, but we can't stand pat.
If you offload Lee, Soriano, Marquis, and Fukudome, that's 13, 18, 10, and 12 million right there, with a total of $53 million.
Beltran would essentially replace Soriano's, Dunn would replace Lee's, Peavy's current deal would replace Marquis, and Lowe's would replace Fukudome. Furcal would add about $10 million, but even so, this would allow you to re-sign Wood and Dempster without adding too much salary on top of everything.
Plus, even if you re-sign them, you can't count their contracts twice, and what I mean by that is, say our salaries totals last year were $120 million and Demp and Wood got 6 and 4 million respectively. If they re-sign for 12 and 8 next year, you'd add just $10 million, and not $20 million...Does that make sense?
OBP is the reason the Cubs had so much success this year. Great starting pitching is another reason. We all know much of our OBP was inflated during the first few months when Fukudome was such a great example----we need to replace that high OBP. Additionally, as mentioned, Z and Harden are VERY iffy. We need to be proactive about replacing their innings.
I would hardly think signing Soriano was a "splash" intention for the Trib to keep us interested. Cubs fans will be interested no matter what. That is what makes us the best fans in the game. Soriano was THE top name in the free agent market that year and deservedly so. How was JH supposed to know Soriano would have leg issues his first two years here?
The idea of getting rid of so many players after such a great year is not common thinking.
Glad to see Abreu doesnt appear to be on our radar and even more glad that I havent even seen Dunn's name mentioned.
Would love to have Peavy and Dempster....but would consider not signing Dempster and going for Lowe instead.
If we land Peavy, and the staff stays healthy...thats one hell of a rotation no matter if it's Dempster or Lowe.
Here's an interesting move that wouldnt supplu alot of power, but could work well. Trade for Ichiro. He's worn his welcome in Seattle. He could take RF and has a great arm. He is an excellent hitter and could take the leadoff spot. And....he may be just what Fukudome needs to get turned around. What better mentor to have???
The master chef, Neil, has come up with a smorgasbord. Peavy and Greene are looming larger. If that happens and we keep D and Wood, JH and Lou will be in hog heaven.
IMO, the possibilities for Furcal, Lowe and Beimel are very remote. Furcal would be nice, but dollars, length of contract and injury history will keep us away. The aging Lowe is good but he and Boras want 3 years and likely $42 mil +. I'm not impressed with Beimel's 2008 numbers: 49 IP, 50H, 1.50 Whip. Cotts is likely better. At best, we might splurge some big dollars for Furcal if we don't get Peavy and Greene.
As Aaron says, "easy there guys" and I say that to Aaron. Your bud, JimK says, "Aaron, you just don't seem able to compute with regard to Beltran's contract and to what would be involved in "offloading" the contracts of Lee, Sori, Marquis and Dome."
The Mets love Beltrans $18.5 mil per for the next three years--for a guy who just won his 3rd gold glove and had a line in '08 of .284-27-112 with 27 SB's. You call it a bad contract. The Mets love it as they do Johan's $22 mil, and the $12 mil option they just exercised on Delgado. They are a big budget team. It's way past wishful thinking to suggest that they would trade Beltran for Soriano. If they hadn't opted for Delgado, there may have been a chance to trade Soriano for (mostly) futures--since they need another OF.
I'm guessing that you don't really expect the $53 mil per year due Lee, Sori, Marquis and Dome to just go away--thereby freeing up $53 mil for new players as you suggest. It would be a miracle to not have to take back $40 mil + in offsetting contracts attached to names like Pierre, G. Matthews Jr, and Washburn to move those players. I agree with you that it would be nice to move a couple of contracts. But it can not happen the way you are suggesting.
Here's hoping JH is able to turn apparently serious dialogue like that with the Pads and with D's offer of 4 and $50 mil into something really good for us. As we know, Bud's memo to the owners and the agents memo to the players both say, "Make as much noise as you can in the offseason. It helps sell tickets." And the agent's memo also says, "The more teams we can get mentioned for any player, the more dollars will end up in his contract."
JimK,
In response to what you said...I DO understand Beltran's contracts, as well as others.
I know the problems associated contracts, length, injuries, etc. I know them very well.
I also know very well that the Mets have entertained the idea of moving Beltran every year since he signed. I don't pretend to know the reasons why...I really don't, but I know they've expressed an interest in trading him in the past. Additionally, their in the same position we are, only in reverse. See, we've been swept the last two postseasons, whereas the Mets have collapsed the last 2 seasons, missing the playoffs. They have equal reason to make trades/signings as we do to improve their team. Would it really make a difference if we were in their positio? Essentially, we were. And, furthermore, we almost had a collapse of our own in September, and if it weren't for the Brewers collapse, we might've found ourselves in the Mets position anyhow.
Anyway, back to the suggestions:
Dempster wants 5 yrs $75 million. Good riddance! We hardley knew ye...(well, we knew the Dumpster before, but just one year of good Dempster)
So, that leaves two voids in our rotation, as you can't possibly count on Z and/or Harden to be healthy next year. I mean, it's just not smart to count on them. Since Hendry would have to be out of his mind to sign Dempster for that much, you have to at least prepare for 2 spots to replace.
Z
Harden
Lilly
Marquis
***(Dempster's spot would need replaced...recommend Lowe, only for 3 and $36 million though, or maybe $39 million)
As for the other option, I think we'd be covered, depending on potential trades including them:
Guzman, Gaudin, Marshall, Samardzija, and Cotts (he's a long-shot though, b/c he hasn't started in a long time). Plus, we also have Hart, Randy Wells, and even Rich Hill.
I think we need to give Guzman a shot at Dempster's spot, and/or Marquis if we can trade him. If that were the case, and we didn't sign anyone else, I think you'd have to give Samardzija a shot, or if Hill has recovered from his issues, then you give his spot back to him.
If the Cubs go that route, the maximum they'd potentially save is $15.3 million between Marquis and Dempster's old contract. So, technically, you could go after Lowe, which might be smart because of his durability. But they might opt to go with three main guys: Z, Harden, Lilly, and fill in the last 2 spots with high potential guys.
If it is the route they go, then we'd have to sign Wood, which would mean that amount drops to about $11.3 million after factoring in Wood's potential salary increase. I guess, in theory, you could use that to sign Abreu or Dunn...maybe even Furcal.
As I mentioned though, Dunn, Abreu, Kotsay, Crawford (if option isn't picked up---unlikely), and Bradley---those are your supposed "power lefty bats"---with the exception of Crawford, though he does have a little pop.
So while I understand what you're saying, you also must see it from another perspective sometimes. While I realize we can't have everything we want, I merely noted our needs and people that could fill them, such as OBP, power lefty bat, and an effective starter.
Here's a question for you. If we lose Wood, would you go all out after KROD, or Brandon Lyon, or would you take a flier on Turnbow or Gagne as set-up men?