Before last season the CCO ran a series of four contests for the Faithful to make a few predictions on the upcoming year, as well as when a certain switch-hitting hitting infielder from the state of Maryland would be traded to the North Side of Chicago. While that deal did not happen last season, the Chicago Cubs put together a very good year with an unexpected ending. Without further ado, here are the winners of the first ever contests on the CCO....
A Look Ahead.....Predicting the Offense for 2008 - March 5, 2008
Predicting the offensive numbers was, by far, the biggest 'hit' of the three contests. The winner was to be determined on the percentage of players correctly predicted and at least five predictions were required on batting average, OBP, home runs and RBI's. The criteria that had to be met were within (plus/minus) .10 on averages and OBP and within (plus/minus) 5 on home runs and RBI's.
Here is a list of all the players that predictions were made for and their final numbers for 2008:
- Henry Blanco - .292/.325/3/12
- Geovany Soto - .285/.364/23/86
- Ronny Cedeno - .269/.328/2/28
- Mark DeRosa - .285/.376/21/87
- Mike Fontenot - .305/.395/9/40
- Derrek Lee - .291/.361/20/90
- Aramis Ramirez - .289/.380/27/111
- Ryan Theriot - .307/.387/1/38
- Daryle Ward - .216/.319/4/17
- Sam Fuld - n/a - spent 2008 in the minors
- Kosuke Fukudome - .257/.359/10/58
- Matt Murton - n/a traded to the A's for Rich Harden
- Eric Patterson - n/a traded to the A's for Rich Harden
- Felix Pie - .241/.312/1/10
- Alfonso Soriano - .280/.344/27/75
- Carlos Zambrano - .337/.337/4/14
- Brian Roberts - n/a not dealt to Cubs during the 2008 season (.296/.378/9/57)
Click here for all of the predictions
Agustin picked Geovany Soto to win Rookie of the Year and Carlos Zambrano to win the Silver Slugger....right on both.
Winner - Everyone predicted the Cubs would hit for more power, especially the Big Three. The predictions made by Lows was the closest over all....and therefore he is the winner.
A Look Ahead....Predicting the Pitching Staff for 2008 - March 21, 2008
The second of the CCO's prediction contests focused on the Cubs' pitching staff. And from the lack of participation, the predictions tossed out by Baseball Prospectus and the Bill James Handbook scared a lot away....even Jim K said in a comment that between Baseball Prospectus, Bill James and the CCO, his breakfast was ruined.
The addition of Rich Harden and the demotion of Rich Hill could not have been predicted, as well as Ryan Dempster becoming the best pitcher on Lou Piniella's staff last season....not to mention Kerry Wood being healthy, for the most part, and productive.
Winner - However, Jim K was the only one to make an actual prediction and therefore is the winner.
JimK's predictions:
- Carlos Zambrano - 21-9 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP
- Ted Lilly - 14-9 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP
- Rich Hill - 13-10 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP
- Kerry Wood - 4-3 with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with 35 saves
- Carlos Marmol - 6-3 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP with 9 saves
- Jon Lieber - 10-7 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP
2008 Final Stats:
- Carlos Zambrano - 14-6 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP
- Ted Lilly - 17-9 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP
- Rich Hill - 1-0 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP
- Kerry Wood - 5-4 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 34 saves
- Carlos Marmol - 2-4 with a 2.68 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP with 7 saves
- Jon Lieber - 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP
A Look Ahead....The Final Standings - March 28, 2008
The Cubs finished with a 97-64 record, six more wins than their PECOTA prediction for 2008. The CCO predicted the NL Wild Card would not come out of the Central Division and a year after being known as 'The Comedy Central', the NL Central ended up being one of the strongest in baseball.
2008 National League Central Final Standings:
- Chicago Cubs - 97-64
- Milwaukee Brewers - 90-72
- Houston Astros - 86-75
- St. Louis Cardinals - 86-76
- Cincinnati Reds - 74-88
- Pittsburgh Pirates - 67-95
There were seven predictions made and no one correctly predicted the Cubs final record....they even surpassed the 96 wins Dave Kaplan thought they would post.
- Joe - 93-69
- Steve - 92-70
- Gucci - 100-62
- Jerljr - 92-70
- Jim K - 89-73
- Nick - 94-68
- Agustin - 95-67
Winner - The closest with a 95-67 prediction is Agustin.
Brian Roberts Contest - Is it Tomorrow? - February 5, 2008
The test run for the prediction contests asked all of the readers to predict what day and time that the drag-out-all-winter-long-rumors-would-actually-become-reality. Well the trade never went down last season for Brian Roberts (while the Cubs are rumored to be interested once again this winter) and there was one prediction of "deal does not get done."
Winner - Dave in STL
The prize for all of the winners is 'Chicago Cubs Yesterday and Today' a book I contributed research to and received an acknowledgement in.
Chicago Cubs Yesterday & Today
The winners from all four contests are as follows:
- A Look Ahead....Predicting the Offense for 2008 - Lows
- A Look Ahead....Predicting the Pitching Staff for 2008 - JimK
- A Look Ahead....The Final Standings - Agustin
- Brian Roberts - Dave in STL
To receive your prize, please send me an email with your shipping address. The book will come from Amazon and hopefully to you within a couple of weeks after I receive your information.
A quick question, would the Faithful be interested in prediction contests for 2009. If so, leave a comment or send me an email.
neil@chicagocubsonline.com
I would like to send out a huge thank you and tip of the cap to all of the loyal readers of the CCO for making a very memorable 2008 season even more enjoyable. Last season was the third full campaign covered here at the CCO....wonder what the fourth one has in store?
Subscribe
I'm game to do this '09.
It is with great humility that I read that I won the pitching segment of the predictions' contest. Genius and the cream always rise to the top. In my case of brilliance, I won a contest in which I was the only person whose entry qualified. It's embarassing that the winner predicted Hill and Lieber would win 23 games, and they won 3.
I do think I deserve some credit for how I finished last in indicating the Beloved Blus would take the Central with only 89 wins. I said on March 28th that Soriano would have an injury plagued season, that Dome would hit poorly and that JH would not add the 2-3 quality starter we needed. Being right on 2 of those 3 thoughts makes me willing to enter the contest again. Yes, let's do it again.
Jim K:
Don't feel bad about predicting that Hill and Lieber would combine for 23 wins. I predicted that Seattle would win the wild card and that Cleveland would win the Central. Congrats on your other predictions!!!!
Checking the news and rumor hounds, it looks like Teahen and the Cubs are an item among the pundits. The KC wish list is Marshall and Fontenot. My guess is that Teahen is like the question, "How's your spouse?" and the answer (according to somebody else) is, "better than nothin." Teahen might happen after bigger fish can not be caught or if JH knows he can't free up more budget room. Teahen is likely a left handed hitting DeRo.
I do like Teahen because he's a decent lefty bat and can play the infield and outfield corners with good ability. I would include Marshall for the lefty poor Royals plus Cedeno and Gaudin for Teahen and RSP pitcher Carlos Pena who was 8-5-2.73 in 95 IP at AA and AAA last season. He gave up 81H, walked 19 and struck out 86. The Royals rebuild their pen plus get a middle infielder, and we get a nearly ready 3-4 starter plus Teahen.
Hey thanks Neil! And count me in again for 2009 and for the CCO ride. It was nice to look back and see the predictions...it is funny to see the Pie-Roberts-Payton-Murton-Hill and the unpredictability of the baseball predictions.lol. Looking forward to reading the book!
JimK,
I believe you are referring to a Carlos "Rosa" not "Pena", but at any rate, what makes you so certain he's the real deal. I looked at his stats, and they don't seem that overwhelming. He was, however, ranked #5 in their system.
If we make a trade like that with Marshall, Fontenot, and Cedeno, it's worth more than Teahen and Rosa, I can tell you that. In fact, I would rather have them include a guy like Hosmer or Ka'aihue. Both are first basemen, which we need in the future.
If it takes Hoffpauir to get it done, then I say you include that too. I just think that we have to start preparing for the future, and it starts now. You make trades that set you up not only for the present, but also for the future.
In this trade, we get rid of spare pieces (though I argue, Fontenot is HUGE on this team), but to get value, you must trade value. Marshall gives the Royals a good, solid young lefty swing-guy that they'll probably use as a starter, and with Fontenot, they'll have an everyday 2B. Cedeno gives them a decent shortstop option, and Hoffpauir would provide them with some power if needed, while Teahen doesn't have much worth.
With the supposed demands of the Royals, it's extremely surprising. Who thinks they're outrageous?
Case in point...How much would you be willing to give up if you were another team for a guy like Jacque Jones? Because, essentially that's what Teahen is. Better yet, how much would you give up for Mark DeRosa?
Jacque Jones was traded for a utility guy---Omar Infante. If you take that trade into consideration, and Jones' past productivity, then he should be worth only a guy like Fontenot, and nothing more. Obviously, they overvalue their guy, and probably think of him in the prior "top prospect"-sense. On the flip side, do you think Pie has much value? Of course not, so why should we bow to their demands? It's ludicrous to think Teahen would be worth a great bench player and possible starting 2nd basemen AND a 4th starter at the very worst. Pie couldn't even net us a decent minor leaguer by himself. Now, granted, he hasn't produced nearly what Teahen has, but you get the point, right?
I think if you do Marshall, Fontenot, Cedeno, and Hoffpauir, it should at least be worth Teahen and a prospect like Hosmer or Ka'aihue.
IF you think about it, the Royals already have Billy Butler, Shealy, Jacobs, Gordon, and Gload at the corner infield spots, not to mention top prospects like Hosmer and Ka'aihue and Teahen himself. I'd say 8 guys for 2 spots, plus the DH would give us quite a bit of leverage, wouldn't you think? Couple that with the glut of OFers they have: Crisp, DeJesus, Gathright, Guillen, and Maier, and I would say you have even more leverage.
It'd almost be like Hendry picking up Peavy or Randy Johnson, then trying to get a top flight prospect for Jason Marquis. It's absolutely ludicrous---you ruin your leverage that way, just as the Royals did when they traded for Crisp.
I'm tired of Hendry bowing to demands like the Marlins made for a TERRIBLE Gregg, trading our number 3 prospect, and top pitching prospect at that. Hell, if Kevin freaking Gregg is worth our top three prospect, then I believe Sean Marshall alone is worth Hosmer or Ka'aihue, and if Hendry can't start pulling off trades like that, then he ain't worth a damn as a GM, plain and simple.
I am game to predict a Brian Roberts trade in 2009. Sure.
This season maybe it's Peavy though?
Aaron....I did mean Carlos Rosa. I had thought of including Brayan Pena, a switch hitting catcher in the deal and transposed the names. I also like Ka'aihue--who is likeable tradeable since the Royals acquired Jacobs to play 1B.
In my proposed deal, I did not trade Marshall, Fontenot and Cedeno as you mention. I traded Marshall, Gaudin and Cedeno. I decided a highly rated starting pitcher prospect with a 2.73 ERA and a 4 to 1 SO ratio at AA and AAA was a good choice--over a first baseman. I think Ka'aihue works too. I would like to keep Fontenot. I compare Teahen more to DeRo than to Jacque Jones.