The off-season on the North Side has begun and while the organizational meetings are not until October 19th in Mesa, the Cubs made a little news this week....and the mainstream media lit the fire on the Hot Stove.
The Cubs' payroll is expected to increase in 2009 from the $130 million dollars the organization spent to field the 2008 squad. While a specific number has not been reported, with the escalating salaries of the players under contract, an increase would be necessary in order to improve the Cubs this winter. The 2008 payroll was up $20 million dollars from 2007.
Here is more from the wire, including updates on Derrek Lee, Chad Gaudin, Rich Hill, Kosuke Fukudome and Ronny Cedeno. Plus Lou Piniella's coaching staff was asked to return, but could there still be a change? And the latest from the rumor mill with an addition and a very familiar theme....
From the Rumor Mill
Brian Roberts
Another winter full of Roberts? Several reports over the past week mentioned the Cubs will likely try to pry away the Orioles' leadoff hitter once again....after spending most of last off-season and all of Spring Training attempting to meet Andy MacPhail's outlandish asking price. Brian Roberts would be a good fit, but the Cubs might not have enough left after dealing away some of last year's rumored names in the deal for Rich Harden.
The Sun-Times stated that the Cubs do not have any left-handed hitters that other teams respect and Brian Roberts might have been able to help once the calendar turned to October.
Other names mentioned this past week by the mainstream media:
- Raul Ibanez
- CC Sabathia
- Bobby Abreu
- David DeJesus
- Milton Bradley
- Rafael Furcal
Orlando Hudson
Buster Olney mentioned the Cubs as one of the possible destinations of free agent Orlando Hudson this winter. Other teams that could be in the hunt for the 'O-Dog' according to Olney....Mets, White Sox, Indians, Reds, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees and Diamondbacks.
Derrek Lee
Could the Cubs' first baseman waive his no-trade clause so he could be traded to a West Coast team? The Tribune mentioned the possibility. Lee is owed $13 million dollars over the next two seasons on his current contract ($26 million total, eligible for free agency following the 2010 season).
Carlos Marmol
As discussed earlier in the week, Carlos Marmol was involved in a car accident in the Dominican Republic on Tuesday. Marmol received seven stitches and "inflammation" to his forehead. All reports suggested Marmol did not suffer any serious injuries.
Chad Gaudin
More and more information has begun to surface surrounding what actually happened to Chad Gaudin's back. Several reports after he was sent to Arizona mentioned him 'falling late at night', then the Sun-Times stated again this week (while discussing possible moves the Cubs could make over the winter):
"And is the frustration over Chad Gaudin's late-night dumpster injury that hamstrung the middle of the bullpen over the final month worth jettisoning him before giving him a chance to do next season what he did during his first two months with the Cubs this summer?"
The Cubs have not officially stated what happened to Gaudin's back.
The Coaching Staff
According to a report in the Daily Herald, Lou Piniella's entire coaching staff has been asked back for next season and "Jim Hendry will meet with them this week." Speculation is if any of the coaches do not return, the only likely candidate to not be in the dugout next season is Larry Rothschild.
Kosuke Fukudome
The second half slump of the Cubs biggest off-season acquisition from a year ago has created competition in right field when Spring Training gets underway in February. Kosuke Fukudome will have to earn a starting spot according to multiple reports.
A report by Phil Rogers had the following statement:
"Scouts with other teams speculate he has played his last game for Piniella."
Fukudome is owed $38 million dollars on the 4-year contract he signed last winter and should be given a second year with the Cubs before deciding his future with the team. Some are suggesting time at Iowa could help Fukudome become an effective big league player but Fukudome would have to approve the move to the minors.
Rich Hill
According to a report from the Tribune, Rich Hill will pitch in winter ball and "it doesn't seem as though Hill can pitch for Piniella." The Tribune did not speculate on what the Cubs will do with Hill, but if that is true, the Cubs should deal Hill this winter....unfortunately, his value is at an all-time low.
Ronny Cedeno
According to a report from the Tribune, Ronny Cedeno will likely spend the winter on the trading block "after yelling at Mark O'Neal during a nasty exchange in Milwaukee on the final weekend of the regular season." Cedeno has all of the tools to be a successful Major League shortstop but has never put it all together....despite all of the chances he has been given. Cedeno is out of options and has likely played his last game in a Cubs' uniform.
There's a Hole in the Pipe Dear Piniella
The Cubs front office had a 'little mess' to pay for after the Cubs' game three loss at Dodger Stadium. Apparently one or more of Lou Piniella's crew "took a bat to the plumbing near the visiting dugout" and created a flood in the clubhouse according to several reports. Jim Hendry reportedly did not know which of his player or players are responsible and "doesn't care" according to the Tribune.
From the 'What Were You Thinking Department'
Cubs' Chairman Crane Kenney blindsided the team and Lou Piniella when he had a Greek priest spread holy water in the dugout before Game One of the NLDS. The team, manager and organization spent the season downplaying the media-driven curse talk and 'the anniversary', so the 'stunt' must have caught everyone involved by surprise.
That's the news (and rumors)....and I'm stickin' to it!
















The only way I shop Lee is if we can get Tiexierra then I'm all for it.....no other scenario.....
Gaudin....stays....he looked good before his "dumpster injury"....
Hill....deserves a full shot in Spring Training to win a spot in the rotation....I would've shut him down and had him report a bit early for camp....not worked his arm more so he wears out in the season if he gets his control issues worked out....
Ibanez is a great fit...LH bat...some pop....he gets RF and we can look at Pie or Fukudome in CF.....
Roberts might be easier to get from Baltimore in the final year of his contract......
Sabathia would look great in Chicago...but he appears to want to play in Cali.....Maybe a flier on Randy Wolf?? Derrek Lowe might be ok....age worries me....but love the groundball aspect....
And I agree.....after all the talk of not believing in the curse....I have to believe Lou was PISSED at what happened with the Priest....but couldnt say anything since it was the top man of the organization....I actually mailed a letter in to him telling him how stupid that was......he can't fire me!!!
First off on the Derek Lee proposal to swing him westward, I am all for it. No Cubbie Koolaid here for this kid. I personally think Lee is the worst three hitter in the league. At best for the Cubs, he should be a #5 to # 6 hitter in the line-up like he was for the Marlins. I've seen enough baseball in my time to know a good hitter when I see him. Derek gets hits when nobody is on, and grounds into double plays or strikes out when he is needed most. The Cubs already have a strikeout victim in Soriano, and Lee doesn't help out two batters later in the line-up. Free up cash and thrust his money either into pitching and a shortstop or second baseman. Here is my proposal.
Send Derek Lee and Ronny Cedeno to Aneheim for John Lackey since he is in the last year of his contract, and the Angels need a first basemen.
Dump Jason Marquis for a left handed reliever. Re-sign Dempster and Blanco. Pick up Bobby Abreu to play right field, Furcal to play shortstop, and stick Fukudome in center.
2009 proposed lineup.
LF Soriano
SS Furcal
RF Abreu
3B Ramirez
C Soto
1B Hoffpauir
2B Derosa
CF Fukudome
Pithing:
Zambrano
Lackey
Hardin
Dempster
Lilly
Bullpen:
Marshall, Weurtz, Gaudin, Marmol, Wood, Hart, Guzman, (pick up a lefty)
This allows the Cubs to play more small ball because of the speed that is now in the lineup, plus the starting staff would be second to none.
With Lee, Howry, Ward, and not having to resign Edmonds, basically everything is a wash except for the signing of Furcal and Dempster which would add to the payroll. Then the Cubs in 2010 could decide whether to resign Hardin, Lackey, or both to long term deals.
Why Orlando Hudson? He's a great fielder, grant you that, but if we want a left-handed hitting 2B....don't we have one of those? Fontenot maybe hit over his head this year, but I thought he was OK with the glove, and I think he has established that he can hit. PS, he is super-cheap.
Also, same question on Roberts as last year: Then, what about DeRo? I don't expect a repeat of his '08 campaign, but he is a good 2B-man. And a pretty average RF, if that's the answer to the question. I guess I just can't believe that we have DeRo, Fontenot, and Theriot (really a 2B playing SS) and feel compelled to look for 2B help. Huh?
No Thanks on Abreu. Like someone said earlier only way we lose Lee is if we can get Teixeira. That is the only way. We do not need Brian Roberts. One more time, we do not need Brian Roberts. We already have him his name is Fontenot.
If Soriano and Aramis showed up at all in October, even if we still lost, no one would be ready to dismantle a good team. Things need to be shaken up a bit not throw everyone out of town. Who knows who might become available. Maybe Detroit is ready to dismantle after such high predictions and such low results.
On Fukudome, I am ready to say see you in Iowa with him but a Cardinal fan I know made a good point. All japenese players have better 2nd years then they do their first years.Just look at the stats. With the exception of Ichiro. So maybe we get the Fukudome that was amazing the first 2 months of the season all year next year. Hoffpauer deserves a shot after his year last year. The #'s he put up in AAA are eye opening.
Enough with the Hendry and Pinella bashing around town. They didn't play the games, they aren't the ones that didn't show up ready for a fight. Could Pinella have not played Fukudome the first 2 games and then play him in the 3rd where he had great #'s against the dodgers #3 starter, sure. But he didn't. Hendry did nothing but try to put the best team on the field. Edmonds and Reed Johnson were great pickups. W
We will not sign CC. Way to much money. Marquis needs to be traded for Bullpen help. ByeBye RC cola. Where was Ward last year?? Theriot or Fontenot should be in the leadoff spot. I have no idea who to put in the 3hole. Harden and Marshall should be 3a and 3b in the rotation. Until Harden proves he can handle the workload. Can't trade Rich Hill yet, would get nothing for him.
Or
Zambrano power righty
Lilly crafty lefty
Dempster power rights with a great splitter
Marshall crafty lefty
Harden power righty
Now that we are done i cant wait for the offseason, weird i go from "cant wait for the playoffs" to "cant wait to the offseason" and thats not just being a Cub fan. Lets face it, thats baseball and baseball is a funny game where any team could win any day so being the best doesnt matter when its a five game series. Anyway, whats done is done and time to move on.
My Offseason wish list (and hopefully it doesnt take to much bashing b/c we all have our opinions and, come on, its not like Jim Hendry is gonna be one here lookin at what we think so this is all hypothetical):
1. Resign Demp and Woody, let Ward, Howry and Reed/Edmonds walk (Would def keep Reed or Jimmy if we get a "Good" deal on them as they were very valuable)
2. Keep Fuk...may sound crazy but I really feel he will pick up next year as many Japanese players do.
3. Move Fuk to center, Dero to right, Riot to second and then sign Furcal to lead-off.
4. (If option 2 doesnt happen) - Move Fuk to center, Dero to right and then either trade for Roberts (not likely imo) or sign Orlando Hudson (LOVE his game) to play second.
5. Try and move Marquis and Ronny for middle relief - All i got on that one as we just need someone to replace the Howry of 2 years ago
6. ALL the Cubs fans get out and get tickets for next year b/c we clearly had the best team and the summer was EXTREMELY Fun as it will be next year - So dont lose hope as hard as it may be b/c we ALL know we love the Cubs win or lose and cant wait for Spring Training.
Go Cubs!
THe Phillies just torched Billingsley for 8 runs...
We have a totally over-rated bogus offense.....
Ryan...
Like your ideas....I would agree I'd like to keep both Jimmy and Reed....Reed was good against LHP and a gamer....and Edmonds would make a good stick off the bench....If I only get one...I take Reed.
I agree with keeping Fuk at least for one more shot...although perhaps he needs to go to Iowa to work things out...dunno....but I like him in RF with his cannon arm....with him in RF and Soriano in LF teams can't run much! Maybe this is the year Pie is ready for CF and that would be great!
I know this is crazy....but I like Marquis....as a number 5. Nice to have a veteran out there not missing a turn... he's posted decent numbers for a number 5....
I'd like to see Fonty get a shot at the 2B job....or get a SS and move TheRiot to 2B. Or keep De-Ro there and trade Riot. I'm not a Furcal fan....and he spurned us once...now he's just 3 years older....
I can't believe someone actually said we already have Brian Roberts in Fontenot. LOL! Fontenot doesn't have the speed or glove. He is a good BENCH player. We do need a good lead off hitter like Roberts of Furcal if we can get one of them. Look at the remaining playoff teams and they all have good leadoff men.
Philly-Rollins
Dodgers-Furcal
Boston-Ellsbury
Tampa-Crawford (although Iwamura leads off a lot and is average)
But you get the point. If we have someone who puts stress on the pitcher and doesn't have a huge hole in his swing, that will get rid of the huge hot and cold crap the Cubs go through.
I am also for a left handed bat like Ibanez or Abreu. Both are old and aren't the greatest defenders, but will give us the production we need from the left side.
Baron....I was thinking along those same lines, just not those words.
I have a name I would like to throw out. I have not heard or read about the Cubs being interested, so this is just 'throwing out a name' for the bench and to possibly be a left handed Mark DeRosa.....
Mark Kotsay.
Thoughts?
I'm all for Kotsay....absolutely. I threw his name out under the Time for R&R post....he'd be a great LH stick to work CF with Reed as the RH counterpart.....
The offense has not been dependable. Maybe it is time for a new hitting coach. Gerald Perry may not be the answer.
Joe...must have missed that, but I think Kotsay would be a good addition to the bench, not as a starter but a just a good ball player....always liked him.
mritz...Perry is not the problem.
I admit, I am still stunned by their lousy playoff performance. It's one thing to be competitive and get beat, but to to get beat badly is another.
Anyway, I'm not ready to thrown in the towel on Fukudome. For two months the guy was a solid hitter and a on base machine. He is also the best defensive right fielder to play for us since Andre Dawson.
Since this is the begining of the rumor season this is a lineup that I would like to see via trades, Free agents and the swapping of big contracts:
Roberts 2b
Furcal SS
Beltran CF
Texiara 1b
Ramirez 3b
Soto c
Fukudome RF
Winn LF
* Cubs trade D. Lee to SF for Sanchez and Winn
* Cubs sign Texiara as a free agent
* Cubs trade Soriano and Jason Marquis to NYM for Carlos Beltran
* Cubs sign Rafael Furcal as a Free Agent
* Cubs trade Sean Marshall, Ryan Theriot, Tyler Colvin and Josh Vitters to Baltimore for Brian Roberts.
Our rotation would be:
Zambrano
Lilly
Dempster (Needs to be signed)
Sanchez
Harden
One could dream........
So let's see. The Phillies are making the Dodgers look just like everything thought they were....mediocre at best. And we didnt' even show up to compete against them. How sad.
We need some "heart and soul", and that ain't Soriano and Lee.
Now that C. Muscat has posted her Cubs' Offseason piece, my first serious effort at my first Cubs' offseason deal. Of course, serious does not mean meritorious.
My three main assumptions are that the Cubs' ownership issue is not solved until around spring training, that payroll goes up only from $118 million to $130 million and that Soriano, Lee, Rameriz, Z, D, and Wood continue to be Cubs.
The first trade sends, Dome, Hart and Ceda to the Angels for OF Gary Matthews (34), 2B/SS Sean Rodriquez (23), RSP Jordan Walden (21) and RRP Rafael Rodriquez (24). The rationale on Matthews is that he is a versatile contract swap for Dome + who is a switch hitter that hit .285 from the left side last season and .320 in his last 84 AB's in 2008. Dome has more upside and likely does better, but he hit .217 in the 2nd half last year.
The rationale for Baseball America's # 3 ranked Walden and #7 Sean Rodriquez is that they have more upside or utility than Hart (ranked #10 and Ceda ranked #4). We need a power hitting middle infielder and S. Rodriquez whose line was .306-21-52 in 248 AB's with only 4 errors is ready. He was mediocre in 167 AB's for the Angels last year but did better the last month of the season in 79 AB's. Walden projects as a 2 starter in three years, when we likely need young blood. He was 9-8 with a 2.76 ERA at two levels of A ball in 2008. the unranked Raefael Rodriquez was 2-4 with a 1.86 ERA and struck out 48 in 54 IP at AA. He has less upside than Ceda and better control.
For the Angels, the rational is that they likely lose lefty OF, Garret Anderson and reliever KRod. Dome and Hart can help the Angels now and Ceda is closer to ready than Walden.
I think SRod would play a lot at 2B for us next year. He has also played SS, 3B and OF--but 2B is likely his best position. Until my next trade we have the possibilities of Hoffpauir and DeRo in right as first options--with Matthews in the pool of back-ups.
Sean Rodriquez's .306 line was achieved at AAA this past season. That is not clear above. According to Walden's mother, his best pitch is the "radio pitch". Baseball veterans like Gramps and me and serious students of the game like David F know that Gene Mauch coined that term a number of years about 40 years ago. As Walden's mom says, It's a pitch that you can hear but you can't see.
Jim K...I think there's a ton of us here that are "serious students of the game" whether or not we know what Gene Mauch coined or not.
That's what's so interesting about this site. While the content is usually really good, so many just think they are the "resident experts" just based on age or stats they dig up to provide.
Jimk,
I like your thinking...If anything, with Lee or Soriano, we'd have to take a bad contract and at least Matthews Jr would have some value from the bench and is decent in the field. Maybe a move would do him well...who knows? Trading Lee is basically a move to free up first for either Teixeira should we be so lucky, or finally giving Hoffpauir a chance. Lots of ideas have been thrown about by media and those on here alike. The consensus seems to be that trading Soriano and Lee, and either optioning Fukudome to AAA or shipping him off, would serve the Cubs very well. I don't think we can stomach another year of Lee, especially while looking at other first basemen and their production:
in our division alone, we had: Fielder, Pujols, Berkman, Votto, and LaRoche
factor in: Delgado, Jacobs, Howard, Conor Jackson, James Loney, Todd Helton (though he missed half the season), Adrian Gonzalez....I mean, all of these guys are AT or ABOVE Lee's production. Some may lead in home runs and RBI, while Lee is ahead in average or OBP, while with others, he's behind in every category, and some guys played in a lot less games--sometimes 20 or more than Lee, and still had better stats.
And I know Jacobs' OBP was horrendous this year, but look at what Perry's done with our OBP in 2 years...we've improved dramatically, and considering he's like 7 years younger than Lee, and arbitration eligible, the Marlins might be willing to deal him. Perhaps Hoffpauir and one or two prospects might get it done, as Hoffpauir would be cheap for them for a couple years. If we don't get Teixeira, that might be the trade you make. I like almost every one of those other first basemen except for Adam LaRoche.
Well, who knows what will happen. We seem to need power big time though, so Jacobs would fit that bill. Additionally, I don't see how you couldn't at least entertain signing Dunn, because power lefty bats that average 40 home runs and close to 100 RBI on bad teams are very hard to come by. To put it into perspective, he averaged those numbers while being a part of TERRIBLE teams in Cincinatti. Imagine what he could do on a good team. The D'Backs realized that, as he hit 9 doubles, 8 home runs, and 26 RBI, 42 walks, and 35 hits in only 44 games...even if he's not strong defensively. How exactly did the "glove man" Izturis work out for us, anyway? How about Fukudome? It's just not a good idea to enter the season lacking power from power positions such as RF and 1B, and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with the aging Lee and unknown Fukudome. It's even more vital to not ignore this given Soriano's injuries and even ARAM's past leg problems.
I don't know how many times it has to be said from journalists, ESPN, and even fans on here...You MUST be proactive, and never be thrust into another Phil Nevin situation when Lee got hurt. If a guy is noticeably regressing, you have to replace his production and look to move him if you can.
Cary....I agree that serious students of the game can come from all age groups. Age helps when recalling and relating historical events and events that fall below the threshold of recorded history. I might better have said, "serious students of the history of the game".
Aaron....As you point out, there are a lot of good first basemen, and Lee's 181 hits and 90 RBI's aren't chopped liver. I'm not saying that my favorite Cub for several years is a stud 3hole hitter. But Dunn isn't a 3hole hitter either with his lack of speed and strikeouts. And Dunn is looking for 5 years at $16 mil per.
What I am saying is that Hoffpauir could be a 25+ HR guy in right and play adequate defense. So we would gain some power. We would gain power too (another 20 HR's) if Sean Rodriquez worked out as I think he would. DeRo can play out there too and brings a good bat to the lineup.
I'm still trying to figure out who could be more productive in the 3hole. Maybe there is another trade that would help. Lee's numbers would look good in the 6 hole. And yes, Teixeira would be a wonderful solution--but I just can't see that happening. We need a couple more hitters who step up big time in critical games more than anything.
How could a new 3rd place hitter on the Cubs drive in runs when the leadoff man is rarely on base? This is where Soriano hitting leadoff hurts the team. I am not saying Lee had a great year but think about how many times Soriano started a rally. It was very rare. He either hit a home run or struck out. It seems to me that we never started a game with guys on first and third.
Regarding Lee and the DP's: I would venture that at least half of the balls he hit into double plays were hard shots at the 3rd baseman or shortstop. I think it was more a case of bad luck than anything else.
Jimk,
I like your thinking about the Rodriguez kid. He seems like an athlete, but he is not a shortstop anymore, which would be his primary value to us given Theriot's limited range. He had horrible fielding numbers. In 4 seasons, he has 87 errors, as follows: 69 shorstop, 11 2B, 3 OF, 4 3B.
I like the creativity, but look at his K's as well. How can you say no to Dunn, a proven commodity, and yes to an unproven commodity who struck out a ton in the minors, had abysmal defense, and decent power, and also struck out 59 times in 167 AB's with only 14 walks?
Let's set the record straight on D. Lee.....
All the talk about how so many other first basemen, especially in our division. out produce him. Well, first consdier in our division we have Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and to some degree Prince Fielder too.... thats pretty tough....but lets look at categories:
These compare all NL First Basemen:
AB's Lee Ranks FIRST
Runs Lee Ranks SIXTH (ahead of Fielder, Votto, Jacobs and LaRoche--all names mentioned in above posts)
Hits Lee Ranks SECOND (SECOND AMONGST THEM ALL....trailing Pujols by only five hits!)
Batting Average Lee Ranks FOURTH!
2B's Lee Ranks THIRD (ONLY 5 behind Berkman and 3 behind Pujols!)
3B's Lee Ranks THIRD (3 behind Dodger 1B Loney, only 1 behind Howard and Berkman
HR's Lee Ranks TENTH (Still in the top half of the league! Lance Berkman only had 9 more than Derrek. Only the top 6 reached 30 or more. Considering all the other ways he produces this is not bad. Also, Derrek hit 15 Hr's the first half and only 5 the second. Perhaps the wrist wore down that he had surgery on 2 years ago. Who knows....but that was a sudden drop off in the second half.
RBI's Lee Ranks EIGHTH!
Total Bases Lee Ranks SEVENTH!
Walks Lee Ranks SEVENTH!
Stolen Bases Lee Ranks SECOND!
Now let's also look at his value defensively:
Lee only committed 9 errors....and three of the guys in our division mentioned in above posts had more...Howard as a slugger had 19, Fielder had 17, Jacobs and Votto each had 11.
So, everyone being down on Lee....just doesnt make sense...and comparing him to Adam Dunn's production makes even less sense:
Games Played Lee: 155 Dunn 158
So comparing the same amount of games, Derrek Lee batted .291 while Dunn batted .236!!
Dunn doubled Lee's Home Run total (40-20) yet only had 10 more RBI than Lee!! TEN!! So you want to give up a great defensive player and take one who is not even average he is well below average...to get more production....10 RUNS, huh??? lol Wonder how many of those 10 extra runs Dunn would give back with his crap defense???
Here's more.... Despite Dunn's 20 Home Run edge on Derrek, Lee has ONE MORE extra base hit than Dunn because Lee almost has twice the Doubles 41-23, and also has 3 triples to Dunn's zero!....
Compare their hit totals....Dunn has only 122 hits to Lee's 184!!
Strike Outs?? Lee has 119 to Dunn's 164....
Sure, Dunn leads in SLG% due to the 20 Home Run differecne and OBP% Due to the 50 walk difference....But when it comes to production....the numbers speak for themselves.
It's all common sense....no way Dunn is worth anything.....
Joe S. (San Diego)
I will admit that D. Lee brings a lot to the table but I for one see a decline in his game. This would be a good time to trade him if you can land a first baseman who is somewhat comperable to him during his peak years. No I am not advocating Adam Dunn. I love Dunn as a DH but that's not going to happen.
I really hope that they could unload Soriano and Lee
and land Texiara(FA) and Carlos Beltran in a trade.
There is a whisper on MLBTradeRumors today that the Giants might be interesting in pursuing Lee (or Konerko), knowing they'd have to give up a Sanchez or Cain in return. I'd love that, and then pursue Texeira as your free-agent 1B replacement.
Move #2, then trade Soriano and Marquis for either a McLouth or Beltran or someone of similar impact skills in LF/CF.
Neil,
I beleive Kotsay has had some back and other injury issues over the last couple years. I like him when he's healthy, but I thik we may have seen the last of a fully healthy Mark Kotsay. He's not a guy I would want to bring in at this point in his career.
I still think what we really need to is a high end lead-off hitter like Furcal (ideally) or Roberts. I would also like to see Fukodome as a fourth OF and a power bat brought in to start in the OF. On the pitching side I'd let Demp go if his price gets too high (very likely) ... I like Demp but he reminds me of Mike Bielecki from '89 (great stuff, but didn't put it all together for more than one season) and it wouldn't surprise me to Demp turn into a 12 wins pitcher with a 4.50 ERA next year. I'd also bring in a RHP and a LHP for the pen. This team won 97 games ... let's not change too much because of three bad games.
This would be my line-up ...
Furcal
Lee
ARam
Soriano
New OF bat
Soto
Pie
DeRosa
Rotation:
Z
Harden
Lilly
Marshall/Marquis/Hill/Samardzija
David F....I am in agreement on Kotsay being a risk due to health, I was thinking more of a 'bench' or 'role' player that can play all three outfield positions and first base....basically replacing Daryle Ward. Kotsay would give Piniella a lot more options than Ward ever could and a proven left handed bat off the bench.
Again, I agree just think he would be an upgrade off the bench....not an everyday player.
Aaron....Sean Rodriquez's plus is that he is young (23), plays mostly 2B, hits with power, is getting better on defense (6 errors in all of 2008)and improved on SO's at AAA. He has the possible upside to be something like Jeff Kent.
As mentioned before, I have taken Teixeira, Sabathia, Manny, Beltran, and Dunn off the table because we can't or won't compete for them. I'm adding Lowe and Burnett to that list. One reason we can't compete for them is that I'm saying that Sori, Aram, Lee, Demp and Wood will still be with us in 2009. Demp and Wood probably cost us $24-25 million next year--the increase being a big part of JH's available budget.
In the case of Dunn, he gets more interesting if one of our big 3 were to be moved, but someone will likely pay his 5 years/$80 million asking price, and I think JH has more pressing contract issues than making a commitment resembling 5/80 for Dunn.
Now that the Dodgers are winning, Lowe will be happy where he is for the remaining year or two of his career. Burnett will go to the highest bidder--probably the Yankees.
Of course my assumptions of no big time free agents (other than D and Wood) and keeping our big three may be wrong. But my assumptions are right, I do look to guys like Hoffpauir and Sean Rodriquez as reasonable possibilities to deliver 35 or 40 HR's if they play a lot next year.
Maybe Furcal and Roberts are possibilities for us, but Furcal, who was not a Dodger favorite with his nagging injuries, seems back in good graces at LA.
JimK,
I don't see why you wouldn't give Dunn that deal in a heartbeat if that's what he's looking for. Even after the deal expires,he'll still be more productive than Lee, and Lee is 33 at the same age Dunn's deal would expire, plus, Dunn actually has a track record of putting up huge numbers, and he's even cut down his K's if you look at his stats while also INCREASING his walks. Lee, on the other hand, has managed to decrease in all of the "good" stat categories, while increasing his K's. I know you haven't given him a ringing endorsement, so I'm not saying that at all, and you're spot on, that if we can move Lee or Soriano, it'd make more sense, but doesn't it make sense even before that?
I also totally dig your assessment on the FA's. I think, at times, we have extreme fan goggles on, and think we can get all the biggest guys on the market, but it's just not realistic, so I appreciate your assessment, but at the same time, you can't just give up hope that we will.
Coming into this season, I think Hendry was looking at things as the rotation would be his biggest question mark with an unknown commodity in Dempster coming from the pen after not starting in like 5 years, Marquis, and the basket case that is Zambrano. I think, if anything, he thought he could count on 30 hr, 100 RBI from all of our big three, but outside of ARAM, they didn't come up big for us. Also, remember how many big hits came from Soto, Edmonds, Fontenot, and ARAM. Lee and Soriano didn't really seem to show up when we needed them most
DavidF, I love the Furcal idea, because we need a true leadoff man badly...one we've missed since we briefly had Lofton in 2003
Again I point to my above post on why Dunn is worse than Lee....20 more home runs...only 10 more RBI....more production?? Yeah, sure.
As for the above statement of INCREASING his walks and lowering his strikeouts...I'm looking at his stats and that statement doesnt add up...his numbers really stay about the same....
We won't count 2001 which was his first season and he only played in 66 games, nor 2003 when he only played 116 games.... but in the 6 other years counting this one....
WALKS
2002 = 128
2004 - 108
2005 = 114
2006 = 112
2007 = 101
2008 = 122
So where is this steady increase?? He hasn't topped his high mark from the first year...when he dropped off by 20...He went up by 6 the following year...the dropped off by two...then dropped off by 11..before finally increasing 21 this year which still didnt get him back to his first year. So, there is NO steady increase no matter how you look at it.
The statement about him "cutting down his K's" isn't really all that accurate either. Again keeping those same two years out as above...he's gone back and forth with his totals and this year stayed the same as last year....
K's
2002 = 170
2004 = 195
2005 = 168
2006 = 194
2007 = 165
2008 = 164
So if you want to get technical he decreased 29 from 2006-2007 and then a whoppin ONE from 2007-2008... Still the guy hovers between 165 and 195 all while being a career .247 batter....
Numbers never lie....that would be a horrible choice....crappy batting...and even crappier fielding.....sure let's sign him...and bring back Lee Elia as manager too.....
As for Derrek Lee INCREASING his strikeouts....it's a true blanket statement....but c'mon not to the extent it's portrayed...
His increase in K's this year from last is a grand total of ....are you ready....5!! And exluding his 2006 year that he was out most of the season...he pretty much hit a peak of Adam Dunn proportion in 2002 with 164 K's and has DECREASED since...
K Chart
1998 = 120 (199 only played 70 games)
2000 = 123
2001 = 126
2002 = 164
2003 = 131
2004 = 128
2005 = 109
2007 = 114
2008 = 119
So, yes he has increased by minimal amount in the last two years....but he has been on a decline since the high mark of 164....and he still is right at his career mark when you take out the 164....there is no new alarming trend in strikeouts....again numbers dont lie....
His decrease in other "good" stat categories....
well what is good? RBI's? Hmmm his RBI's went UP this year from last 90-82...and the totals fall in line even counting his career year in 2005 when he had 107....He had 70 in 2000, 75 in 2001, 86 in 2002, 92 in 2003, 98 in 2004 and 107 in 2005. He was hurt in 2006, had 82 in 2007 and 90 in 2008. SO he INCREASED in RBI's every year till his career year then dropped to his career average and then INCREASED again this year.
HITS?? Same scenario as his RBI's....
He topped out in his career year in 2005 with 199....he dropped 19 hits down to 180 in 2007 and had 181 this year. So, he INCREASED from last year...and his 180 and 181 may not match his career high...but they both are over any other previous years totals....
His walks this year and last are identical at 71....and they fall right in the middle of his totals which have fluctuated through his career... he's had a 50, 63, and 68 to go with a 85, 88, and 98 so the 71's are right in the middle...
His Doubles?? He had 41 this year, 43 last year and 50 his career year so those totals arent too far off...AND they are again both MORE than any other previous season!
So where's this decline? The only area is homeruns even that is not as significant as it appears....
He hit 20 this year and 22 last year....well off his 46 mark for his career year in 2005...BUT not that far off his other seasons totals...which were 32 in 2004, 31 in 2003, 27 in 2002, 21 in 2001, and 28 in 2000. Divide those 5 years for an average of 27 and he was only 7 freaking homerun off this year...and 5 last year....
But the funny thing is his production HAS NOT suffered....look at HR's and RBI's side by side....
2000 28 HR 70 RBI
2001 21 75
2002 27 86
2003 31 92
2004 32 98
2005 46 107
2007 22 82
2008 20 90
Notice anything? Even with a whopping 26 more homeruns in 2005 than 2008 he only drove in 17 more runs that year!! In 2000 he hit 8 more homeruns than this year but drove in 20 LESS runs! In 2003 he hit 11 more homeruns than this year yet drove in ONLY 2 MORE runs!! So the whole Home Run crap is overblown when you take the time to look at numbers....