The third and final installment of the CCO's look at the 'Big Three' is focused on the Cubs' Gold Glove first baseman, Derrek Lee. Lee had a good season but did not put up the numbers expected from the third spot in the lineup. Lee struggled during the year hitting for power....and for most of the season, elevating and driving the ball. Lee's production dropped after the All-Star break (26 doubles and 15 home runs in the first half, 15 doubles and 5 home runs after the break) and many questioned if Lee was tired or suffering from an undisclosed injury.
For the second year in a row Lee's slugging percentage, doubles, home runs and OPS dropped. Lee hit 41 doubles in 2008 down from 43 in 2007 with 20 home runs, down two from his 2007 total of 22....all in 5 more games and nearly 60 more at bats. Lee also developed the bad habit of grounding into double plays and ended up with 27 for the season.
The rumors began a few short days after the Cubs made it back from the West Coast that Lee could waive his no-trade clause and approve a deal to one of the teams in California this winter. While Lou Piniella should move Lee out of his familiar spot in the lineup, Lee performed quite well against the top pitchers in the league and in the post-season. Lee brings more than a solid glove to the park each day. He saves his fellow infielders countless errors and is a productive player....
Before taking a look at Derrek Lee's numbers from 2008, there are several factors that must be considered....
- The injuries to the Cardinals pitching staff did not provide a consistent closer for comparison throughout the season. The CCO listed Ryan Franklin as the Cardinals' closer.
- The Marlins, due to injury and players returning from the DL, shifted their rotation several times throughout the season. Arguments could be made which pitchers were their top three during the season....and the Cubs did not face Ricky Nolasco in either of the two series against Florida.
- The injury to Yovani Gallardo and the addition of CC Sabathia to the Brewers rotation....as well as the demotion of Eric Gagne and the promotion of Salomon Torres to the closer role for Milwaukee.
- The injuries to the Braves rotation and bullpen led to the Cubs sweeping the season series against Atlanta.
- The Nationals did not have a true closer in the last series at Wrigley. Jon Rauch had success against the Cubs early in the year and was traded before the deadline to the Diamondbacks.
- Injuries decimated the Padres rotation as well and the Cubs did not face Chris Young in 2008. Greg Maddux finished the season as a Dodger but faced the Cubs both times as a Padre....the former Cub is listed as a member of the Padres for this comparison.
- Alfonso Soriano missed the Cubs entire Interleague schedule last season and the numbers for Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee are what they put up against the Orioles, Blue Jays and Rays' respectively....the pitchers' listed are not necessarily the top three of each staff.
National League Central
Cincinnati Reds
- Edinson Volquez - 1-for-7 with 3 strikeouts
- Aaron Harang - 2-for-11 with a home run, 3 walks and 2 strikeouts
- Bronson Arroyo - 2-for-7 with a double, 2 walks and 2 strikeouts
- Francisco Cordero - 0-for-2 with a walk
Houston Astros
- Roy Oswalt - 4-for-7 with a double, a home run and a strikeout
- Wandy Rodriguez - 4-for-6 with a double and a strikeout
- Brian Moehler - 2-for-9 with a home run and 2 strikeouts
- Jose Valverde - 0-for-2 with a strikeout
Milwaukee Brewers
- CC Sabathia - 4-for-12 with a double and a strikeout
- Ben Sheets - 2-for-9 with a home run, a walk and 4 strikeouts
- Manny Para - 0-for-2 with a walk
- Eric Gagne - 1-for-1
- Salomon Torres - 1-for-2 with a double
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Ian Snell - 0-for-7 with a walk and 2 strikeouts
- Paul Maholm - 2-for-5 with 2 doubles and a walk
- Zach Duke - 2-for-15 with 2 walks and a strikeout
- Matt Capps - 0-for-4 with 2 strikeouts
St. Louis Cardinals
- Kyle Lohse - 4-for-9 with a double and 2 strikeouts
- Todd Wellemeyer - 2-for-12 with 2 strikeouts
- Adam Wainwright - 0-for-3 with 2 walks
- Ryan Franklin - 2-for-5 with a double, a walk and 2 strikeouts
National League East
Atlanta Braves
- Tim Hudson - 0-for-3 with a strikeout
- Jair Jurrjens - Cubs did not face Jurrjens in 2008
- Jorge Campillo - 1-for-3 with 2 strikeouts
- Tom Glavine - 3-for-5 with a double and a home run
- Rafael Soriano - Lee did not face Soriano in 2008
Florida Marlins
- Ricky Nolasco - Cubs did not face Nolasco in 2008
- Chris Volstad - 2-for-5 with a double, a walk and a strikeout
- Anibal Sanchez - Lee did not face Sanchez in 2008
- Kevin Gregg - 1-for-2
- Matt Lindstrom - 0-for-3 with a strikeout
New York Mets
- Johan Santana - 1-for-4 with a double and a strikeout
- Oliver Perez - 0-for-1 with 2 walks
- John Maine - 1-for-3
- Billy Wagner - Lee did not face Wagner in 2008 (1-for-2 in career with a home run, a walk and a strikeout)
- Luis Ayala - 1-for-3 with a double, a walk and 2 strikeouts
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cole Hamels - 3-for-5 with a double and a walk
- Brett Myers - 5-for-7 with a home run and a strikeout
- Jamie Moyer - 2-for-5 with a double, a walk and a strikeout
- Brad Lidge - 0-for-3 with a strikeout
Washington Nationals
- John Lannan - 2-for-5 with a home run and a walk
- Odalis Perez - 2-for-4 with a double and 2 walks
- Jon Rauch - 0-for-1
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Brandon Webb - Cubs did not face Webb in 2008 (2-for-5 in career with a walk)
- Dan Haren - 0-for-3
- Randy Johnson - 0-for-3
- Brandon Lyon - Lee did not face Lyon in 2008 (2-for-2 in career)
Colorado Rockies
- Aaron Cook - 2-for-6
- Jeff Francis - 1-for-3 with a home run and a walk
- Ubaldo Jimenez - Lee did not face Jimenez in 2008 (0-for-2 in career with a strikeout)
- Brian Fuentes - 0-for-1
Los Angeles Dodgers
(Numbers from Regular Season)
- Derek Lowe - 1-for-6 with a strikeout
- Chad Billingsley - 1-for-5 with a home run, a walk and a strikeout
- Hiroki Kuroda - 2-for-6 with 2 strikeouts
- Jonathan Broxton - 0-for-2
- Takashi Saito - 0-for-2 with a strikeout
San Diego Padres
- Jake Peavy - 0-for-3
- Greg Maddux - 1-for-5 with a double
- Cha Seung Baek - 1-for-3 with a strikeout
- Trevor Hoffman - 0-for-1 with a strikeout
San Francisco Giants
- Tim Lincecum - 4-for-7 with a double and a strikeout
- Matt Cain - 2-for-5 with a double, a walk and a strikeout
- Barry Zito - 0-for-2 with a walk
- Brian Wilson - 1-for-2 with a triple
Interleague Play
Chicago White Sox
- Mark Buehrle - 0-for-2 with a walk and 2 strikeouts
- John Danks - 0-for-2
- Javier Vazquez - 4-for-6 with a double and a strikeout
- Bobby Jenks - 2-for-2 with 2 doubles
Baltimore Orioles
- Jeremy Guthrie - 1-for-3
- Radhames Liz - 0-for-3 with a strikeout
- George Sherrill - Lee did not face Sherrill in 2008
Tampa Bay Rays
- James Shields - 3-for-3
- Scott Kazmir - 0-for-1 with 2 walks
- Andy Sonnanstine - 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts
- Troy Percival - Lee did not face Percival in 2008
Toronto Blue Jays
- Roy Halladay - 2-for-2 with a triple and a walk
- A.J. Burnett - 0-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout
- Jesse Litsch - 1-for-2 with a walk
- B.J. Ryan - No official at bat - Walked in only plate appearance
Derrek Lee's 20 home runs in 2008 were hit off the following pitchers:
- Juan Cruz
- Doug Davis
- Edgar Gonzalez
- Tom Glavine
- Octavio Dotel
- Josh Fogg
- Aaron Harang
- Jeff Francis
- Oscar Villarreal
- Mark Hendrickson
- Shawn Chacon
- Brian Moehler
- Roy Oswalt
- Chad Billingsley
- Ben Sheets
- Jeff Suppan
- Nelson Figueroa
- Brett Myers
- Tom Gorzelanny
- John Lannan
Derrek Lee's Batter vs. Pitcher Page from Yahoo Sports
Whether Lee will still be a Cub on March 1st is anyone's guess at this point. The numbers show that Lee put up a solid season against the top pitchers in the league....and arguably better than both Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. If Lee is with the team next season, Lou Piniella must find a better spot for him to bat in the lineup.
















WOW...Lee's home runs, honestly, came against mostly garbage pitchers. Oswalt, Sheets, and Billingsley were the only above average pitchers on that list...proving once again, he's got to go...he doesn't cut it numbers-wise as a corner infielder, much less a 3 hitter. He's got to be one of the biggest jokes in all MLB for the 3 spot in a lineup. But hey, that's just my opinion---though numbers don't lie
If a guy hits .291 drives in 90 runs with 64 extra base hits....I dont care if he gets them off of Nolan Ryan or Steve Trout.....as long as the numbers are there at the end of the year. I do, however think the point you really need one Super Star to step up in the playoffs is important, but it still takes a line up full of people like D-Lee, Ramirez and Soriano to perform all season. Think you're really gonna field 8 Manny Ramirez types? Sure if they decide to spend $400 million on payroll.
As for stating that Lee had two less doubles and two less homeruns than last year...I wouldnt consider two anything to even look at...but that being said...with four less extra base hits, he still managed 8 MORE rbi's....so while you may say less power....it was MORE production. And even though his doubles went down by those 2...it was still higher than any other year outside of his career year in 2005.
Lee is a solid player, cares deeply about his performance and the team. Cubs brass looked at one career year and decided to put him in the 3 hole. He has too many power deficiencies and hits to many hard ground balls to be there. He is an excellent defender and makes an average infield defense adequate. Trading him without replacing his significant assets would be a big mistake. He should be hitting lower in the order where he hit for the World Champion Marlins.
I'm starting to wonder if you can get guys like: Dunn, Sabathia, Lowe, Burnett, Furcal, Bradley, KROD, Manny, etc.---all these big name, high production guys---on the cheap because of the economy.
What I mean by that is I wonder if they'd all accept similar deals to what Andruw Jones got with the Dodgers where it's heavy money initially, but low on years. I wonder if we could pull this off...
Lowe-2 yrs 28 million
Sabathia-2 yrs 40 million
Manny-2 yrs 38 million
Dunn-2 yrs 34 million
I mean, you get the point...It would certainly make sense given the financial situation, and the players wouldn't be locked in, so when the market improves eventually, they would still be in line for a big pay day. That's what Andruw Jones figured when he robbed the Dodgers this year. Similarly, that's why Furcal signed a shorter contract....though, that wasn't economically driven like I'm suggesting today.
Anyway, just a thought. If you can swing deals like that, and the player busts, then it's still a tradeable contract. Also, it buys your prospects more time without blocking them long-term at the MLB level.
Instead of lower in the order, I think Lee could make sense batting second, particularly if the Cubs acquired a more traditional type lead-off hitter like Roberts or Furcal. Then move ARam to the 3 hole and bat Soriano clean-up.
Derrick needs to be traded while his value is still reasonable. Hoffpauer (younger/left handed hitter) deserves his opportunity, and hopefully we can move Lee/Cedeno for either Cain or Sanchez.
I also really like a Peavy deal that would provide a rotation of Peavy, Z, Hardin, Lilly and Cain/Sanchez, plus Dempster (only if the price is right).
And I still hope that Hendry can pull a maneuver to unload Soriano (interesting to read reports that JH has put feelers out on this). Dump Soriano, get a McLouth or Roberts and then you have a lineup of:
Roberts - 2B
McLouth - LF
Hoffpauer - 1B
Ramirez - 3B
Soto - C
DeRosa -RF
Pie/Johnson/Edmonds - CF
Theriot - SS
This team needs more speed and small ball. Even biting the bullet on the majority of Soriano's contract, taking out Lee/Ward/Dempster would provide the budget I think for these moves.
Why is everyone so eager to make big changes on a team that won 97 games and made the playoffs two years in a row? Because of poor performance over two small (3 game) sample sizes? Baseball is all about numbers and percentages.
Just curious how will everyone on here feel if JH deals Lee for Sanchez (who has great stuff but a history of control problems) and Sanchez goes 12-12 with a 4.50 ERA (which would still be his best year so far). Lee for Cain? .. sure ... that would makes sense, but SF won't make that deal.
We have to stop being so loyal to aging and declining vets. Hoffpauer deserves his shot (my gosh, what more does the kid need to prove), so why not move Lee while he still has reasonable trade value (in another year or two he'll have no trade value at all).
The team winning 97 games was a great accomplishment, but as many have stated, it's all about the ultimate prize. This team, as structured, will not win close to 97 games again, and won't win it all.
David, you made a lot of sense about making big changes on a team that won 97 games.
After watching the Phillies go 1-28 with men in scoring position, should they get rid of Rollins, Utley, Burrell and Howard? Of course not!
Even though we are 0-6 in playoff games, I think the fact that we won 97 games should say more about the team than a short playoff series. I do think we need to tweak the team a bit, but to hear most people bashing the team does not seem fair to me. I would like to see them go further, but to be in the playoffs for 2 consecutive years speaks volumes to me. They are a good team. GO CUBS!
If the goal of "Cubs Contentment" is winning the division two years in a row, well congratulations. But unfortunately, the true indicator is that it's 100 years, and counting, for a WS win.
As Mark Grace stated correctly, the team just laid down and died, and has now done that two years running. So a question for the posters here...with the current makeup of the team, what would make you believe that they can "take that experience" from the last two years, and perform any better in another playoff opportunity?
Too many prima dona's with no heart, and a manager that can't mentally get a team ready for playoff intensity (isn't that what he's paid for).
97 wins....and all is well in Wrigleyville. Please! A good portion of the team needs heart and guts surgery.
But in the meantime, the Rays are playing and winning with small ball, young kids with intensity, and an unknown manager pulling all the right triggers at the right time. But, hey, let's have another beer...we won our division with 97 wins!
Derek Lee is a very good player. The Cubs should be happy they don't have to worry about the 1st base position.
Bryan, I definitely agree with that assessment. There's nothing in this team that makes me think it wouldn't go 3 and out again next year...much less even make the playoffs.
They started strong last year, but couldn't get into rhythm after May. It was almost like Soriano messed everything up. It was weird, because at first, a lot of people were saying we didn't even need him, then Lee and ARAM and Soto, and everyone else pretty much went cold, and he came back and supplied pretty much all of our offense and totally carried the team, then went MIA, and other guys like Soto, DeRosa, and Fontenot came through when Lee and Soriano went cold..
too many streaky hitters. You need guys that can flat out rake for an entire season and postseason...guys that rise to the occasion like Manny and Beltran. I'd sign them in a heartbeat. Who knows, maybe even Dunn would rake if he got in the postseason. We all know the tremendous power displays he puts on during the regular season.
Anyway, that's why you trade Lee for whatever top prospects you can get now, and give Hoffpauir the shot he EARNED, and you trade Soriano for Beltran if the Mets would ever let that happen. Look, I believe if I were the Mets, and the Cubs approached me with a Soriano, Marquis, and Marshall swap for Beltran and some top prospect, I'd do that in a HEARTBEAT. Why? Because Soriano and Beltran are close in age, Soriano has a cannon arm, and speed when he's not hurt, but the more important thing is the Mets need pitching. Nearly their entire staff was lost at some point last year.
Pedro will likely be gone
Santana stays
Maine was hurt
Oliver Perez was inconsistent (I believe he's a FA too)
Pelfrey was good, but also inconsistent
There's just too many questions with their pitching.
All I know is we can't run the same bunch of chokers out there next season. Changes need to be made. You don't need to "blow" up the team, and considering Lee's lack of production out of the 3 hole and from a corner infield spot, you're really not losing much. The power you lose with Soriano, you gain with Beltran, then you sign a FA like Dunn.
Lineup:
Theriot-SS
DeRosa/Fontenot-2B
Beltran-CF or RF
ARAM-3B
Dunn-LF
Soto-C
Hoffpauir-1B
Pie/Johnson/prospect/FA-CF or RF
in that lineup you give your hitters significat protection.
Our most used lineup last year was terrible:
Soriano-free swinger, doesn't put fear in anyone
Theriot-would be better in leadoff, as most singles hitters are, plus...see below
Lee-put fear in NOBODY but our own fans. With a traditional lead-off hitter and singles guy ahead of him, it mostly resulted in disasterous GIDP's
ARAM-teams could pitch to ARAM because he lacked a strong 3 hole guy in front of him getting on base. In the event they pitched around him, it usually meant Soto wasn't in the game and Lee got on with a walk
Fukudome-this worked the first month or two of the season, because ARAM would be pitched around, and he'd drive him in, but it faltered later on, and he was removed from the spot. He was a joke after May, and I would've benched his ass until he figured it out, because it really hurt our lineup being shuffled around like it was.
Edmonds/Johnson-one of the most underrated platoons in ALL of baseball. I think they had something like 25 HR 95 RBI ut of the CF spot. That, my friends, is PRODUCTION. Edmonds, unfortunately, is in the down-side and might retire, but even at his downside, he still hit 20 bombs for us and provided a much needed power lefty bat. That's all gone next year though, and precisely why we need to sign someone like Dunn
Soto-he actually was one of the more consistent hitters we had, but you see the problems above with not having a 3 hole hitter that puts fear into the opposition
DeRosa-Almost like Soriano, DeRosa is a very streaky hitter. One thing I did like about him though was he ALWAYS hustled. He's either a number 2 hitter or a 6-7 hitter.
Just think about the potential lineup I presented earlier. Theriot as a singles hitter in the lead-off, really could work well. DeRosa, with a line of .285 avg, .376 OBP, .481 SLG, 30 doubles, 21 HR could really do well in that spot. Know what Lee's line read? .291 avg, .361 OBP, .462 SLG, 41 doubles and 20 HR....That, my friends, was out of the 2 spot, with Theriot getting on base at a .387 clip.
DeRosa might've had 110 RBI out of the 3 hole for crying out loud.
Hendry and Piniella are idiots if they keep Lee next year for the point that others have brought up on here----Lee is 33, has 2 years left on his deal, so it's definitely a moveable contract, and he still holds some value defensively, and he's a good guy. But he's NOT a 3 hitter, and we NEED a 3 hitter. So what do you do? Hoffpauir's not. ARAM is a clean-up hitter. Perhaps Soriano...I dunno? See the dilemma? We have to go after Beltran, Dunn, or Manny. We need to put fear into other teams.
football fanatics....I couldn't agree more. The sudden hatred for derrek lee is ridiculous. The truth is that the current team was capable of winning the world series. Why take a strong spot from that team and fill it with a question mark like Hoffpauer? Yes he has a high MLB batting average...so did fukodome. Lee stays.
What we need is a speedy or powerful lefty in addition to what we already have. The idea of adding is to keep the core the way it is. I'm all for a roberts trade, or maybe Ibanez instead, and resigning dempster. But other than that, the team should stay the way it is.
Oh my! Some of the natives are restless and two of them are off their feed. You know who you are. LOL
If you want to be included on the final roster planning committee with JH, Lou, David F, Gramps and me, you can't call Lee a big joke. That's way too harsh. It's right to say that he's about average in the 3 hole and that we need to do better there if we can. The facts are that 14 3holers had better BA's, 21 hit more HR's and 17 had more RBI's in 2008 than DLee. That's out of 30 3holers.
At the top of the 3holer rankings, 11 hit over .300, 10 hit 30 or more HR's and 12 had 100 or more RBI's. Only 3 of those players were first basemen.
Those here who think we have a real chance to get any of Manny, Sabathia, Teixeira, Beltran, McClouth, Cain and Burnett have been to the mountain top and seen possibilities that I can't see. On the budget availability question, it's not enough to say we can cut $14 mil or $20 mil. We have $25 mil of 2009 increases already built in to our existing contracts.
Yes, we could use more production in the 3 hole. Maybe that's DeRo. Maybe that's a trade to the Twins for the potential of Delmon Young. Maybe we can trade Lee, Fontenot, Ceda and Rhee to the Giants for Sanchez, Schierholtz and Pucetas and get more than Lee's (and Dome's or Johnson's) production from Hoffpauir at 1B and Schierholtz in the OF--plus getting a good lefty starting pitcher.
It may be possible to move Soriano in a deal partly based upon bad contracts. Assuming the Dodgers lose Manny and can afford Sabathia too, this kind of trade might work: Dodgers get Soriano, Marshall and Cashner. We get Ethier, Pierre, Elbert (lhp)and Schmidt. That assumes that Torre like Sori.
Pierre is owed $28.5 mil over 3 years and Schmidt is owed $12 mil next year. Pierre is a true leadoff man with a weak arm (as we know), and Ehtier, a lefty corner OF had a line last year of .305-20-77 with 59 W's and 88 SO's. He could be a 3holer if he hits lefties a little better, and ought to be a consistent 25 HR--100+ RBI guy. There is some word out that the 35 year-old Schmidt will be well enough to pitch in 2009. Elbert, a top prospect, did come back from injury the 2nd half last year with a 2.40 ERA, and 22 H in 41 relief innigs pitched. He walked 20 and struck out 46 at AA and made a token appearance for the Dodgers. He could be the lefty equivalent of Marmol out of the pen--and maybe get back to starting.
All we need is Manny Ramirez. A player that will inject that clubhouse with confidence. All you need is one guy to break the ice and get it going and the rest will follow.
Ricky, I tend to agree with that assumption, however, we need at least 3 relievers (if Wood isn't signed), 1 starter (to fill Harden's missed starts and Marquis), and a lead-off man...Manny can't solve all that.
I don't know about the rest of you guys, but I had a blast this past year. It was an exciting season and they made the playoffs. Sure I wanted them to go further, but it was not meant to be. Hey, the Dodgers looked so good against us and they lost to the Phils. The playoffs are a crap shoot. The team that plays the best in a short series moves on. All this talk of getting other team's minor leaguers, Beltran, Manny, et al is just that -- TALK! They are not going to spend $200 million and they are not going to take a chance with tearing down the team and then building it up again with unproven minor leaguers. There are moves to be made and the team will not be the same but the core players will still be there. And I see nothing wrong with that. Baseball is a strange game. We, as fans, can only urge our team on and root for them. Just keep getting to the playoffs and one of these years everything will gel for us and we will have our Series win. We have no guarantees that even if we put the best player at every position on the field that we would win the World Series. Averages are played out over an entire year, not just for 5 or 7 game series. All players will have a bad time at some time in the year. It just seems that our guys tank in the playoffs. But that can change next year. Just look at how the Sox got it together in the 2005 playoffs and World Series. And where have they been since? Like I said, it is a strange game. GO CUBS!
I was not active on this site this past season, as I was so disgusted with the 2007 playoff result. You can imagine how I'm feeling now. But... it's a numbers game, like the Braves and Red Sox for many years. If we keep a competitive team on the field and continue making the playoffs, it will happen eventually.
As to D-Lee, he tied for 2nd in MLB for most GIDP (27) and his slugging % has declined the last 2 seasons. That seems directly related to his ground ball/flyout ratio. For 2004-5 it was 1.00-.97. The last 2 seasons have been 1.22 & 1.39. By comparison, A-Ram 2008 was .70 and A-Rod 1.02. It would seem that the 2006 wrist injury has affected his swing mechanics somehow. The Cubs and hitting coaches know all such stats, but apparently attempts at corrective action have been ineffective.
D-Lee is still an effective player and not over the hill, but you have to question if he's a #3 hitter, and maybe it's time to consider him as tradeable.
A few thoughts....
* If D.Lee is kept, he has to be moved out of the 3 hole. Remember, this gut batted 6 most of his life with San Diego and Florida.
* If D. Lee is traded, he should fetch a nice return and the Cubs do need to get younger and better.
that's exactly the point "younger and better"...even JimK gets it....his proposals with crazy prospects most have never heard of, yet he gets the point...we must prepare for the future. If you don't, you'll lag behind, and might not even make the playoffs like the Yankees found out. See, the Yankees of the 90's were good, in large part, because they had a decent nucleus of homegrown talent like Pettite, Jeter, Posada, Williams, Soriano, etc. They started mixing youth with veterans, and they got it done, but they stopped developing young talent in lieu of signing veterans like Brown, Giambi, AROD, Pavano, etc., the list goes on. Finally, they've gotten back to the basics, and they'll be better off now. Other teams like the Braves haven't been as fortunate to keep playoff runs going.
The Yankees just need to get rid of older guys like Giambi, Damon, Abreu, etc., just as we need to get rid of underperforming guys like Lee and Soriano, and not take a chance on Edmonds----Gaetti in waiting.
We need to bring up our own talent, and mix in a Manny or Teixeira, or Dunn, etc.
We do NOT need Ibanez. Period. End of story. What we need is a younger guy (think mid to late 20's) up-and-coming player in his prime. We need that because it's a long season, and older guys tend to slow down at the end of the long season. We also need that as a solid foundation to build around for the future.
Core guys on our team right now are Zambrano, Harden, Samardzija, Marmol, Soto, Hoffpauir, Fontenot, Theriot, ARAM.
We have prospects like Vitters, Cashner, Spears, Tony Thomas, Ceda, Searle, Rhee, Acosta, Burke, Suarez, Carpenter, Flaherty.
If you look at our system though, it's really devoid of power, which means you MUST get a younger guy like Dunn or Teixeira to build around for the future, and hope your drafts start catching up. We seem to have a ton of pitching talent, but I guess we'll see.
I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Ceda, Cashner, Kevin Hart, Tony Thomas, and Ryan Flaherty, at least get looks during big league camp in the spring. Ceda, Cashner, and Hart each possess power arms tha we need for the pen, and Thomas would bring speed, and Flaherty would be along the lines of Fontenot, but he can play SS.
I think you make these moves and finally give your system a chance to shine, while also using spare parts like Wuertz, Marshall, Hill, Veal, Cedeno, Colvin, etc. to get a starter like Peavy, and any other pieces you need.
I believe that if we get Dunn signed and Lee traded for Cain/Sanchez and/or prospects, we'll have a VERY VERY good chance of winning it all next year. My goodness, Dunn's 40+ home run average and propensity to draw walks would put any opposing team in a bit of a pickle.
Yeah, let's get a guy who hits 40+ homeruns....yet hits about .230 and strikes out almost 200 times.....not to mention if there is anyone worse at defense than Soriano....it's Dunn....and Dunn has nowhere near the arm of Soriano......
Yeah let's go get Dave Kingman Jr....we saw how well it worked for us the first time around.....we won what two or three championships because of Kong right???
Just read that Adam Dunn's nickname is Big Donkey.....lmao HOW APPROPRIATE!!
Well....maybe it would take the hex of the Billy Goat away if we had a donkey raoming the outfield!
Aaron....What do you mean, "even JimK gets it"? I was getting it when you were learning how to tie your shoes and shedding your Huggies. And what do you mean, "crazy" prospects"? Are you saying they are crazy because you haven't heard of them? LOL!!
Here's something crazy. Your saying that Wuertz, Marshall, Hill, Veal, Cedeno, and Colvin, etc., get us Peavy and other pieces that we need. I don't know your crazy guy "etc.", but if he's not the second coming of Carlos Beltran or Carlos Marmol, we don't get Peavy and other pieces we need. If he is the second coming, I say keep etc.
What the Yankees can do vs. the what the Cubs can do in going after guys like Manny, Teixeira, Sabathia, etc., is the simple math difference between spending $220 million and $120 million. They are trying to grow a few more of their own, but the reason that they have ARod, Giambi, Pavano, Abreu, and many other $15 mil + plus guys is that they can afford them. When some flop, it's chump change for the Yankees--even as they lose. We have to live with our few, big contracts--but even the Yankees live with Giambi and Pavano until their exhorbitant deals run out.
I agree that, if Lee is moved, Dunn should get a look. I don't agree that he is worth more than $13 to $14 mil per for four years. Since Hoffpauir has shown some plus skills at every level, including the bigs, I would rather see our power need met at another position--given Dunn's defensive limitations. I suspect that someone in the AL is going to offer Dunn 4 or 5 years at $15 to $17 mil. per to mostly DH, and JH will loose interest in Dunn. The Red Sox are a good candidate because Ortiz is crumbling noticeably.
Aaron,
I don't get the part about JimK's "crazy prospects" ... JimK knows his stuff. If we are going to discuss trade possibilities with another team, we should know their players and prospects.
On another note, Dunn, Sabatia, Jose Reyes, Beltran, Peavy, Manny, and/or Tex aren't happening. Dunn will end up DH'ing in the AL where he belongs. The Mets won't deal Reyes and Beltran (at least for anyting we have). We don't have the talent to land Peavy. And CC, Tex, and Manny will be out of our price range.
It's going to be an offseason of tweaking the roster without any big changes. And that's how it should be.
Yeah, I suspect things will be shuffled up this year again. Tuff break on your playoff run, you guys did have a great season though. One of these years you'll do it again man. I suspect in the next 5-10 years you'll be champs
Jose Guilen of K.C. would be intriguing choice to play RF/LF. It just seems like every organization he goes to can't wait to unload him. AS for Adam Dunn, I think that when they invented the DH rule, they had him in mind. Other players that I am curious about would be Brad Hawpe and Jeremy Hermedia.
relax...I was just saying you also understand that we need to get some decent young prospects.
Jim (TP), love your idea of Hawpe or Hermida (though some scouts question Hermida's passion for the game), but Guillen? Not so much. Guillen is like Sosa, but with half his talent. He would kill a team's chemistry. Unlike Manny, his distractions are mostly anger---Manny's more goofy than anything, which would actually help this team in the postseason by drawing attention to himself rather than other players
We were talking about Hawpe last year, and he would be huge for us. But the budget limited Rockies have him signed for the next 3 years for a total of $23 mil. So they likely keep him.
The Rockies site does say that they are almost certain to trade Holliday (OF), who has a year left and Boras for an agent, and Atkins (3B) who is arbitration elgible and had a line of .285-21-99 in 2008. And the Rockies want to trade for good pitching.
The Twins have a lot of pitching and need a third baseman. They also have Delmon Young (OF .290-10-69) and a guy I've liked for his bat, grit and fire in the belly for several years. That would be the lefty hitting OF Jason Kubel (age 26, .272-20-78 in 463 AB's last season). Kubel can play either corner with average skills but he brings a Youkilis demeaner in the field and at the plate.
Here's a 3 way deal with the Cubs, Rockies and Twins. Cubs get Kubel from the Twins and Seth Smith from the Twins--2 lefty outfielders with Smith able to play all 3 positions. Rockies get Marshall, 12 game winner, Kevin Slowey (24, RHSP) and the-out-of options prospect Boof Bonser (27) who was 3-5 last year for the Twins. Twins get Garrett Atkins from the Rockies and Nate Spears from the Cubs.
Ideally, we would then move Dome, Kubel would play right and bat 5th. He could bat 3rd, but maybe the righty hitter, Young works best as a 3 hole guy. Either, Kubel or Young should be obtainable.
Aaron...Ibanez slows down? 110 RBI with the MARINERS is slowing down? I disagree. If we can't get the speed with roberts or furcal, ibanez would be a great pick up.
JimK,
I honestly doubt our lovable Cubbie has the chip for someone like Slowey. He's seeing great things coming, and Bill Smith (Twins GM) is no fool to give up good pitching, not yet. He'll do it when the time comes (think Haren...).
Fukudome, why should we give up on him so soon? He reminds me of Matsui (Hideki, with the Yankees), who hit terribly in his first year over AL East.
But after that, he's a 390 OBP guy with some pop -- I'm talking about 20+ homers and 100+ RBI. That's in a division with Roy Halladay and Josh Beckett in their prime.
But then, since 2006, injuries started to bother the slugger... I'm curious if Fuk hasn't build back his arm strength, since that long rest last season. His talent level is not what the last 4 months we saw.
Time will tell... Meanwhile, that Raul Ibanez rumor isn't what we need. The guy'll turn 37 next June, and he plays below-average rightfield at best...
Charlie,
I respect your opinion, but unless you're Manny, Bonds (doing roids), or Lofton (who stays in tremendous shape), you're going to regress as a 37 year old.
All I gotta say is JEROMY BURNITZ:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burnije01.shtml
vs Ibanez:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/i/ibanera01.shtml
Their averages, hr, RBI, BB, K, and OBP are very similar, especially the year before they'd join the Cubs (if Ibanez joins). It's NOT a good idea at all. We need younger more powerful talent. We don't need a "blast from the past" quick fix like we've done so very many times before.
We are so devoid of any sort of young power it's ridiculous. Look all over MLB and you'll see it, but in case you don't want to, I'll do it for you (under 30 power hitters-25 or more HR proven):
Phillies-Utley, Rollins, and Howard
Mets-Wright
Braves-Francoeur, (Teixeira)
Nats-Pena
Marlins-Jacobs, Uggla, Cantu, Ramirez
Cubs-none
Cardinals-Pujols, Ankiel, and Ludwick
Brewers-Fielder,Hardy, Braun, Hall
Astros-Pence
Pirates-McLouth, Adam LaRoche, (Bay)
Reds-Dunn (before trade), Encarnacion
Dodgers-none
Giants-none
D'Backs-Young, Reynolds, (Dunn)
Padres-Adrian Gozalez, Greene
Rockies-Holliday, Hawpe, Atkins
Red Sox-Youkilis, (Bay)
Rays-Longoria
Blue Jays-Wells
Yankees-(Nady)
Orioles-none
White Sox-Quentin, Swisher
Twins-Mourneau
Tigers-Cabrera
Indians-Sizemore, Martinez
Royals-none
Angels-(Teixeira)
A's-Cust
Rangers-Hamilton, Blalock
Mariners-Beltre
So, in summary, the Cubs, Dodgers, Orioles, Giants, and Royals are the only teams in the majors with NO players under 30 that either hit 25 or more THIS year or EVER before the age of 30.
See, it's important to note these things, because as you know, players in their 30's tend to get hurt a lot more. We've already felt this with Soriano, and even before he turned 30 this year, ARAM had leg problems. That kills your lineup, as you could see with the White Sox this year. When Konerko and Thome were injured they struggled, then Quentin emerged as a powerful weapon for them. That's exactly what need to get on this team in case ARAM, Lee, or Soriano goes down, because as we know, it's not a matter of "IF", it's a matter of "when".
If you'll also note, of those teams I mentioned, the Giants, Royals, and Orioles have been perennial cellar dwellars of late. The Dodgers also have big young power that will develop-Loney and Eithier, and the Royals have Butler, Gordon, and Teahen. We have Hoffpauir, and really need to get him in the lineup and start developing the talent we do have, or we have to get under-30 power guys like Dunn.
But hey, that's just my opinion
Aaron:
Once again, nice research. You have been touting Hoffpauir for a couple of years now and I agree with you, this guy needs to be on the field somewhwere. The Marlins have a plethora of power it's just that that team blows when it comes to defense. I like players who bring more than one thing to the table.
I like Ibanez as a hitter but this is another guy who should be a DH. I wonder what it would take to get Dejesus and Greinke from K.C.? In order for the Cubs to add from Free Agency they probably will have to deal Marquis and Lee. I'm sure they would love to unload Soriano as well, getting rid of his contract would be a tall order. Yet, Hendry found away to send Todd Hundley to L.A. for Karros and Grudzielanak. Actually, I am begining to despise Soriano. If he is on the team next year he better be playing 2b or learn how to go back and come in on fly balls. That pussy-footing that he does isn't just at Wrigle Field, he does that shit in every ball park. I just pissed myself of again thinking about him.
Aaron...you make god points for sure. I would love to have a guy like these teams have. However, i dont think that we should get rid of any big contributors for this season. I would agree with that more for next season, or if we could add a mclouth on top of what we have without having to get rid of the key factors we have now. But, a problem with all the guys listed is that they're highly valued. I'd b fine with getting a fast, lefty leadoff man. I think if we did that and no other big moves than the team would improve drastically. But hey if we could snag one of those young guys without changing too much im all for it.
The need isn't for a power hitter (and common strikeout victim such as a Dunn). The team has enough power potential in the middle of the lineup with Hoffpauer, Soto, and Ramirez...and DeRosa will still get you 12-15 HR's in a normal year.
We need to shore up the rotation since I believe Z and Hardin will continue to be health "if's" next year. So if you can land a Peavy and Cain/Sanchez that would be huge while giving up Lee/Cedeno to SF and Marshall/2 mid prospects to SD.
Pie, out of options, needs to play next year in a rotation with Reed Johnson (how key is that guy). I then still would like to see the Cubs make a play for McLouth (Pirates), yet don't know what that would take in prospects. McLouth is a gamer.
If you can trade Lee there's money to be saved there. Soriano just has to be traded, hopefully for a couple "ready" prospects, even if we have to eat most of that remaining contract.
And if I was going to spend FA money, I would invest it in Texeira. Many here will dispute our interest in Tex, but hey, Hendry was crazy enough to give Soriano his ridiculous deal.
I can see a lineup of:
McLouth LF
DeRosa 2B
Texeira 1B
Ramirez 3B
Hoffpauer RF
Soto C
Pie CF
Theriot SS
Key bench of Johnson, Fontenot, Fukodome, Blanco. With this model, you're essentially exchanging Lee/Soriano for Tex/McLouth,and I'd love that, while also hopefully picking up rotation help as already mentioned.
Jim (TP), yeah, I agree about the multi-dimensional, it's just there are so few of those guys out there and that's unfortunate.
I just want to summarize what we do know, so "speculation" and trade ideas don't seem ridiculous.
Here's what we know (from quotes, etc.):
1)Hendry has made it known he wants Dempster
2)Hendry seemed to allude to the fact they'd let Wood walk, which I hate him for, btw
3)Hendry AND Piniella have both said they need a "POWER" lefty bat (not just a lefty bat)
4)Hendry AND Piniella have stated they need more speed at the top of the order---alluding to the fact Soriano would no longer be there.
5)It has been said that Hendry has made it known Soriano is available
6)Piniella is/was unhappy with the following players: Eyre (already gone), Howry (FA), Marquis, Pie, Cedeno, Cotts, Soriano, Hoffpauir (his defense)Ward, Wuertz,and Fukudome...this is all based on comments he's made after games, demeanor during games, and especially when/how he used them in games
7)Hendry AND Piniella have both voiced their public displeasure for Fukudome and both said he's have to earn a starting spot on the team next year
8)We have no starting CF right now
9)Due to their comments, we also have no starting RF right now
10)Because of Piniella's lack of patience with Marquis, we also might be searching for a starting pitcher
11)Hendry AND Piniella don't seem comfortable with DeRosa at 2B for whatever idiotic reasoning. (maybe they just covet Brian Roberts WAY too much). The reason we know this is the last 2 offseasons now, his position has been brought up as improving upon
12)Hendry has already stated his liking Manny during the playoffs
13)Hendry tried to sign both Beltran and Furcal in the past
14)Additionally, Hendry wanted Sabathia first, but didn't have the prospects to get him.
15) Samardzija's contract is a MLB-level deal, and so his biggest bang for the buck in terms of value, would be as a starting pitcher
16)We have no power position prospects in the minors other than maybe Vitters.
17)I believe nobody other than maybe Vitters is untouchable in the minors
18)Pie will not be given a chance under Piniella because he can't change his approach at the plate.
Those are things we DO know...only maybe #6, 17, and 18 could be considered assumptions, though #6, if you watched the games and post-game press conferences, you could probaby ascertain that.
Based on the quotes and observations, I think it's safe to say they'll have an eye out for a new LF, CF, RF, 2B, 5th starter, and closer/middle reliever to replace Wood. Obviously, teams can't make every improvement they want, so they'll probably make due with Pie/Johnson in CF, DeRosa at 2B, Marmol at closer, Samardzija switching to the rotation. Bringing up Ceda to replace Samardzija in the pen, and move Guzman to swing-man in the pen, or set-up man. Essentially, that leaves lead-off, LF, and RF uncovered, so it isn't as daunting as it seems initially.
Now, Furcal in all likelihood is re-signing with the Dodgers. I'd look for the Cubs to trade Soriano, perhaps for Beltran, sign Manny for LF/RF, and make a run at Milton Bradley or Adam Dunn for the other spot. After all the bonuses due everyone, I doubt we'd make a play for any front-line starter (though it'd be smart with Z and Harden's health issues), unless we unloaded Lee. In that case, you'd swap Lee for Hoffpauir in the lineup, and get bullpen help, bench help, or top prospects.
That might sound like a dream list, and far-fetched, and yes, it IS a dream list, but NOT far-fetched if you read into anything Hendry and Piniella have stated that I listed above.
GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!
Dorasaga....The Twins' beat writer says that the Twins are willing to trade pitching for a SS or a third baseman. I agree with you on our "chips", but the Rockies have a very good, surplus chip in 29 year-old Garrett Atkins (3B) with his 21 HR's and 99 RBI's. The Twins do have an excellent, young second baseman, so maybe we keep Spears and put Cedeno in the 3 way deal (above).
I do like either Kubel's grit, guts and power from the left side or Young's considerable upside, as well as the tools and demonstrated potential of the lefty OF, Seth Smith.
It may be too early to give up on Dome, as you suggest. But he was so bad in the 2nd half that I am saying, "Move him if we think we are improving the team for 2009 and beyond." Kubel or Young would definitely be better, IMO.
JimK,
I agree that a postseason team needs to be built on some versatility and perhaps the demeanor of approaching the game, like you said.
But again, Garrett Atkins is not what the Twins want. Out of Coors, Atkins loses considerable power and the ability to put balls in play. And he's into arbitration years.
Slowey is a much more valuable asset to the Twins--rookie (no arbitration hassle), and quite polished. This is the kind of guy that we need to trade Pie (good defense, a must in Metrodome outfield) plus Hoffpauir. And either one of them is not unseen in the Twins farm. (They actually got Gomez everyday and ready to blossom.)
In general, your 3-way trade heavily unfavors the Twins.
I don't like Hendry's "internal option", and I believe in the art of a more progressive deal for the postseason. But what's improbable is not going to help.
*I should have said: "to reword what you say" about grit, guts and power, and the tools and demonstrated potential... Kubel and Smith, *sigh* if we only have some power hitter like that in our farm...
**I just double checked Seth Smith's minor stats, and I'm not seeing the power... Having him instead of Hoffpauir is like a trade-off, if JimK was right about his glove...
According to Phil Rogers at the Trib late this afternoon:
"The Cubs are on the list of teams for which Jake Peavy will waive his no-trade clause. This doesn't look like a fit, but don't be surprised if Jim Hendry tries to put together a package that would include a swap of first basemen, Derrek Lee and Adrian Gonzalez, who is supposedly untouchable."
Talk about a bit of wishful thinking??
lol -- look at this activity.....
Aaron --- you're going to be gassed out before next season begins.....
relax people, its still the 2007 season.... everyone take a few days and enjoy Football season.
Neil- If Bruce Levine said anything on his show today, could you share? I wasn't able to catch it.
Thanks.
Phil Rogers is on crack.....NO WAY Adrian Gonzlaez gets traded ANYWHERE....and if Phil is just reporting that the Cubs are on Jake's list of teams he'd go to, that guy needs a nre line of work because he is WAY behind in the news......
I was thinking the same thing Baron...tons of interesting thoughts.....not sure why so many people want to make so many changes to a team that kicked ass all year. Minor adjustments are all that will be needed.
Dorasaga, You're right. I did unfavor the Twins. If you feel Slowey is too valuable, I would say, Rockies take your choice of Blackburn or Baker. I would also send the Rockies, #4 prospect, Hector Gomez (A level SS) to the Twins. I would send the Cubs Castillo to the Rockies and pull Cedeno out of the deal.
I understand the Twins concerns with budget. But when you missed the playoffs by 1 game and you got almost nothing from 3B, Atkins' 99 RBI's and solid D are very tempting. He didn't hit as well on the road, but he did have 44 RBI's on the road. And the Twins have spent some bigger bucks lately. He won't be 29 until December.
Smith's full year numbers at AAA were 20 + HR's, 100 + RBI's and 20 + SB's. He played less than half a season at Colorado Springs. Hoffpauir played less than half a season too and his full year HR projection is 50. I can Smith in CF as well as the corners and also coming off the bench. Maybe both play--especially if Lee or Soriano are injured. Maybe Hoffpauir gets traded if Lee isn't. In the end, there probably won't be as much change on the roster as some are expecting.
Nice to see a great performance by former Cub Jamie Moyer in his first World Series appearance.....and that was a hell of a play he made even though the um got it wrong! An almost 46 year old fielding a bunt, falling to the ground flipping it directly from his glove to Howard at first who grabbed it barehanded. C'mon baseball.....you have replay cameras installed...NO REASON...not to get calls like that right...get a clue from the NFL Selig...you damn assclown....
Scotty Eyre also chipped in getting a strikeout to end the inning....
Matt....I was out of pocket on Saturday, missed Levine.