Neil:

Nicely done. Very interesting on how some guys feast on the weak but struggle against the best.

Those are the types of numbers that (a) justify that he needs to go, and (b)support that Hendry should have done a similar analysis before giving him that ridiculous contract and no-trade clause that will now be difficult to move.

And nice to see the high energy, young Rays moving to the WS. Congrats to them!

I wrote this as an entry on a family blog that includes my uncle Bob (aka "Islay"), and the two of us have a very strong distaste for the Red Sox. There are a few statements in here that will make sense if you know that background, but otherwise its just a straight-up assessment of the Cubs right now. I hope they come together next year because I believe they can win......for now, go Rays.

I just finished watching the Mlb.tv archive replay of arguably the best baseball game I've ever seen; that is, Game 7 of the 08 ALCS. Having this time to consider what it is I like about the Rays and what it is I dislike about the Red Sox, I don't want the Cubs to win at all costs ($) to become the next Red Sox. Sometimes I'm asked, "Why do you hate the Red Sox so much? As a Cubs fans shouldn't you relate to them as a team that hadn't won for so long due a "curse", blah blah blah". Unfortunately, those people have a point. I'm not a fan of the "win now/next year" philosophy. I don't like the "large market" approach to buy the top free agent every year. I don't want to the Cubs to become another Yankees/Red Sox large payroll dynasty. The World Series win is not worth that to me.

Yes, the Cubs are a large market team and they have fans all across the country. And maybe the Cubs will go that route but in my perfect world, it won't be that way. So my first move is to trade Derrek Lee. There are bad teams in baseball like the Pirates (who play support to large market teams ie. Bay and Nady 08 trades, come on they had one of the best outfields in the league), but there are probably at MINIMUM 8 teams every year that have the talent on a 25 man roster to win the World Series. All you can do as a GM, is to get your team to that point and after that, its out of your hands. Its up to the people in your dugout to have the confidence, chemistry, poise, and brains on a daily basis (especially in the post-season) to get the job done. Given all that, of secondary importance, is that (as Islay has said many times) professional sports are a young man's game, with the few exceptions of elite players like Manny Ramirez.

I want Micah Hoffpauir to play first base for the Cubs next season. The guy has raked at every level including the bigs when he has been given the opportunity. Not only that but he is the left-handed power hitter that the Cubs have been coveting for over a year now. Derrek Lee is part of the Cubs unfortunate past as a member of the 03 Marlins, is not a team leader, and I'm ready for him to move on. Lee is a great player defensively, and when is he on he can drive the ball and make it hurt. Therefore, I'm not afraid to ask for quality players in return. But no one is going to take him that can't pay his salary. Enter...the Boston Red Sox.

This may be approaching blasphemy but my preferred deal right now, to a team that needs a solid 1B, is trading D-Lee to the Red Sox for Oregon native Jacoby Ellsbury. Maybe the Cubs have to throw in another minor leaguer to get this done, but I'm also not interested in accepting a possible counter-offer for Coco Crisp instead. The Cubs need a CF since they will not resign Jim Edmonds. Thats another Daryle Ward resigning mistake waiting to happen (even though Edmonds is certainly a much better baseball player than Ward).

Another option is to trade Lee to the Giants but the top priority should be CF and so I think the Red Sox make more sense. Maybe they are down on Ellsbury and high on Crisp after this postseason. You never know. I'll be discussing trade possibilities with my friend Thomas, who is a Giants fan, but the Cubs look good with an outfield of:

LF Soriano
CF Ellsbury
RF Johnson/Fukudome

However, would I rather have Manny in LF? Absolutely. Especially with a new lead-off hitter coming in in Ellsbury. If, as GM, I could pull off trading another guy with a huge contract and a no-trade clause, I'd trade Soriano to the Dodgers (after they lose Ramirez) or the Phillies (after they lose Burrell), or the Tigers, Angels, or even Mets. Whoever can offer the best package of stud minor leaguers, I dont care where they play and I dont know enough specifics about their systems to propose concrete trades right now. But if I were left the outfield mentioned above, it'd be worst case scenario and I'd be ok with it.

Which leads us to Cubs free agents... they need to sign Reed Johnson to a 3/yr $12-15M contract. And they need to resign Ryan Dempster. At 31 years old, I'd have no problem signing him to a 4/yr $48-58M contract. Worse case, if he regresses (and he won't), he is our fourth or fifth starter. He is one of the Cubs clubhouse team leaders and he absolutely needs to stay. Without Dempster, the Cubs lose someone with a strong work ethic to achieve personal and team goals (see conversion back to starter and WS "prediction"), ability, and team foundation status. By that I mean that people on this current team trust him, respect him, and without him might lose focus without an equivalent leader to step up in his place.

With Kerry Wood, I'm not as concerned about resigning him. He blew almost 25% of his save opportunities and, frankly, while he is a great story, I don't believe the Cubs need him. Carlos Marmol would certainly be an effective closer and while that would leave his "set-up" role absent, I believe that would be easier to fill with free agents such as Trever Miller, Keith Foulke, Mark Hendrickson, or even... Kerry Wood, the bullpen is the biggest question mark for the 09 Cubs provided they can sign Johnson and Dempster. Wuertz, Cotts, Guzman, Marshall, (if they aren't traded) are average to above-average relievers and I wouldn't be afraid to start the season with them. Howry definitely will not be back.

So, to summarize, the changes are few: Trade Lee for a quality CF. The talent is here to win the WS, with a lineup like...

LF Soriano
CF Ellsbury
1B Hoffpauir
3B Ramirez
C Soto
2B DeRosa
SS Theriot
RF Johnson/Fukudome
P Z/Harden/Dempster/Lilly/Marquis

I would be in favor of converting Samardzija to a starter except that Marquis has one more year on his contract and I have seen him pitch lights out in plenty of starts. Marquis may not be your Game 1 or 2 starter in the NLCS but he will give you a chance to win most games he starts in the regular season. Therefore, I see no reason to take Samardzija out of the bullpen when we need quality pitchers there and he has found success there before. So, for pitching I go with:

1 Zambrano
2 Dempster
3 Harden
4 Lilly
5 Marquis

Bullpen: Marmol, Samardzija, Guzman, Wuertz, Cotts, Marshall, and whoever impresses in Spring Training.

DeRosa and Dempster are team leaders. Theriot and Fontenot belong together and they produce. Soto is a marquee player from the Cubs system and Hoffpauir is ready to follow him. Soriano and Ramirez are the old "stars" that, while on the wrong side of 30, will put up good numbers for at least a few more years. Their true test comes when they have to perform in the playoffs and, so far, they haven't done so well...

The fact is that the Cubs can win the World Series. This year I honestly think they felt entitled and then they didn't show up when 7 other teams showed up to the postseason hungry. (You could argue 6 other teams showed up since the Brewers don't really have the talent to compete). This year though, the Cubs and their fans felt like 100 years was enough and as long as they COULD win, they WOULD win and that was obviously not the case. They choked and they need a slight shake up but not an entire revamping. Its up to the players and they better be hungry in 09. Period.

..

(PS. Awesome moment tonight when Crisp tried to slide tackle Bartlett at 2nd on the Ortiz groundout in the 8th instead of just sliding into the base and beating the throw. Thats the kind of aggressive, emotional, "charge the mound" player he is and thats someone I don't want on my team)

(PPS. Joe Maddon is a stud for putting David Price in in the 8th with the bases loaded. Not only for trusting his talent but for showing JD Drew and other veteran hitters something they'd never seen.)

Neil, I think you made one very good point. The no-trade clauses and lack of top prospects will make it very difficult for the Cubs to get deals done this offseason. Other than money, and our payroll is already very high, we don't have the resources to make alot of moves.

The Cubs are a great regular season team because of our depth. Our bench was very very good this year. Problem is in the playoffs, you don't use the bench much other than pinch-hitting, and you really only need 3-4 starters and 3-4 relievers.

Tony LaRussa bats his pitcher 8th so Pujols can have 3 hitters ahead of him (after the 1st inning) to try to get on base ahead of Pujols. What do the Cubs have? 1 hitter. Soriano has to be taken out of the lead off spot. To me it is amazing that Lee had 90 RBI's this year. I know all about the DP's, etc. but I think he really should be given some leeway. I think the same thing would happen to Hoffpauir if he or anyone else hits third with Soriano in the lead off spot.

Gramps - I'm in total agreement with you about Soriano. Here's something to think about that I'm not sure any other team has ever done. Why not hit him cleanup?

Why? Because if he's up with people on in the first then his power comes into play - if we go 1-2-3 in the first then he gets to be the table setter that he fancies himself as (although I'm of the opinion that his leg injuries have robbed him of that ability and he's just too stubborn to see it any more). I dunno. I'd just like him better out of the leadoff role and actually have a guy that is happy to slap singles and lay down a drag bunt every once in a while in order to put some pressure on the basepaths the start off the game rather than the guy that's looking to make it 1-0 with every swing of every game he leads off. My opinion :-)

Jim (Portland) - great post.

I'd love to see Ellsbury here and Lee would be the kind of talent we'd have to give up... and I can also see Boston wanting him for 1b as trade bait. However, I can't see them trading Ellsbury now that he's proven himself and has a following among the fans out there. Before last year - yes - there's always that feeling that when you trade a prospect you're taking a gamble (and same when you're trading FOR a prospect). And the fans understand trading prospects for proven players... they don't know the guy other than as a news blurb about "the organization's top prospects" or a note here or there about how he's doing in the minors. Fans aren't truly attached because very few have ever seen him play and thus aren't invested as fans in the guy. ...but now with a year under his belt, it'd be a PR nightmare for them to trade him away. It'd be like us trading Soto.

Just a thought,

OK Soriano is a mistake hitter. Fair enough. He is what he is.

But how do the Cubs improve??? Are the Cubs a better team with him or without him??

I lean towards with him. Sure, he's not very effective against good pitching that doesn't make as many mistakes, but what about the other 100 pitchers in the league that do??

He's not as effective in the post season because the pitching is better. But what about getting to the playoffs?? Isn't he important to get there.

Other than replacing him with a equal calibar player but is more effective against good pitcher and in the playoffs, aka Manny Ramirez. Wouldn't it be better to build around him with better player's so that playoff time we are not as dependant on him. I thought we had that but obviously we need more.

I still think the mindset was our problem and not one player or player's. If we would of won the first game, I think the whole series would of went different. It was a "here we go again" attitude that shouldn't of been there. Couldn't bounce back. Then that second inning of the second game. Total blowup. They choked plain and simple. And I hate to say that. But thats what it was.

jerljr I agree 110%

These numbers are nice to see, and as always Neil did a great job. However, these numbers don't tell the whole story. This is like putting the first 12 chapters in a book but leaving out the last 4.

This tells me how Soriano did against pitchers THIS year....doesnt give me a feel for overall numbers against these picthers. Are they the same? Are these numbers skewed? I clicked on the link for the yahoo sports page, but I clicked on the link on that page to expanded to career stats since 1987. THAT tells the story of how he hits versus each pitcher.

But beyond that, we can examine stats all day long, and to a point they do mean something. But here's what I care about. At the end of the day is he producing? Answer....YES. So, I really don't care if he produces of Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, or Doc Gooden or if he produces against Dick Ruthven,Steve Trout, or Dickie Noles.

If at the end of the day the guy is hitting around .300, and jacking out between 30-40 homeruns great. Throw in his cannon arm in the outfield and his 12-20 assists per year...even better.

The one issue with Soriano I have is doing what we have to do to keep him healthy. I know he couldnt help his broken hand from being hit, but all the leg issues we need to get past. He has been healthy his whole career, until he got to the Cubs and then both seasons he missed a chunk of time--yet still produced nice numbers. He missed about 25 games in 2007 and about 50 in 2008 yet still produced nicely. Think of how much better if he would have played his usual 155 games.

So, all this batter versus individual pitcher is nice to look at and very informative, but one season doesnt provide rounded statistical information and even then it doesn't tell the whole story.

As for stats that tell a partial story....on the yahoo page you can check situational stats and it tells a story of why perhaps you keep Soriano in the leadoff spot. Look at the career numbers:

Bases Empty: .290
Runners On: .268
RISP: .254
RISP 2 Outs: .227

None on/ None Out: .299
None on / 1 or 2 Out: .280
Men on / 2 Outs: .231

Batting Leadoff 3037 AB's : .293
Batting Third 631 AB's: .260
Batting Fifth 583 AB's: .268

Looking at the stats it would be easy to say oh well thats why we keep him there. Problem is the stats are bound to be skewed because most of his stats have been compiled as a lead off batter. I'm sure some of the areas would even out if the majority of his AB's came from a different spot in the order, or if he had runners on base more often.

Numbers can be very misleading. What I do know is Soriano (and Lee and Ramirez) all have career stats that show they are all-star caliber hitters.

Joe S...not to debate, and I appreciate the additional numbers perspective, but the stats are just "one indicator". Overall Soriano and Lee are "soft", have minimal mental toughness, and fold against tough competition. Hey, I really like Lee...a few years ago that guy hit everything, and really turned on everything on the inner-half. But that time has passed.

And Soriano is just not a gamer. His post-playoff ludicrous statements indicate that, along with his prima dona attitude of batting leadoff v. what really is good for the club. I know I dwell on the character side, but I'd rather lose with consistent effort, energy and passion, than watch these over-rated athletes who just fold when it's time to step up.

Look at the Rays last night. Game 7 on the line, RedSox with all the momentum, and yet they show the guts to prevail after all. The Cubs would have mentally folded the tent after Game 5.

Everyone knows that good pitching always trumps good hitting. I'm interested to see D-Lee and A-Ram's numbers, but it's difficult to compare stats.

D-Lee benefits from having A-Ram next in the order. Soriano had mostly Theriot or Fukudome. Even at their hottest, they are hardly as scary as facing Soriano. You also have to consider that the 3 and 4 hitters usually bat with runners on base. This can also have an effect on how well a pitcher pitches (distracted by the runner, pitching from the stretch....).

You would also have to look at the pitcher's stats against better hitters. For example, Sabathia and Hudson are pretty good against most good hitters, but Soriano always kills the ball against them.

You can play with numbers and statistics all day, but the fact is there are too many variables in the game.

The playoffs are all about who has a hot bat, pitches well, and plays solid defense. Unfortunately, the Cubs did not do all three in any post season game with consistency.

Joe, I understand your point and maybe later in the off-season I will run Soriano's career numbers against the top pitchers in the league.

With compiling the game previews throughout the year (information for Talkin') I could almost guarantee you which games the Cubs were going to win and lose. I do not look at pitcher's numbers against an organization as an indicator but how each batter has fared over their career against the day's starting pitcher. Now granted, every pitcher, no matter how good or how bad (stat wise) will have a bad day (or a good one) but 9 times out of 10, career numbers do tell the story.

For these three articles I thought I would use this year's numbers because Soriano, Lee and Ramirez have had different careers, in length, success and in Soriano's case, a different league. Career numbers at this point tell a lot, but might not tell the entire story.

After seeing the Cubs, like all of you, struggle at the plate in the series against the Dodgers and the comments made by Joe Torre regarding Soriano, I wanted to see for myself if what I was remembering from all of the game previews was actually true. Have the Cubs just struggled offensively for the past two division series or is this a trend against quality pitching?

Soriano produces, like Lee and Ramirez, throughout the season and without him the Cubs would have not won the division the last two seasons....the win/loss record without him this year backs that up. But against top tier pitching, he simply does not produce....not in the regular season or in the post-season. Can Soriano contribute to winning in the post-season? I certainly hope so, because he will be in a Cubs uniform for the next 6 years.

Soriano must be moved out of the lead-off spot and should hit further down in the order. Soriano is basically Ryan Howard with more speed and less power....and without Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth, the Phillies would have been swept out of the first round again. Think about how many times, especially in the third game, that Derrek Lee led off the inning. While Soriano was responsible for only one of those spots, the Cubs must have runners on in front of the middle of the lineup. Runs are a premium against good pitching and must be produced or manufactured.

These articles are not meant to be negative and I hope no one takes them that way.

With that said, there was a reason the Cubs tried all last winter to land Brian Roberts....and I think the Cubs will try to add more of a traditional lead-off hitter this winter.

I believe that it is well said that the playoffs are a crapshoot...Anything can happen in the playoffs. It would seem obvious that hitting stats would go down in the playoffs from the regular season stats because of the premier pitching in the playoffs....However, if we look at a few players from the AL and NL pennant winners, we see that their offensive stats jumped up in the playoffs...

Aybar hit .421 in the playoffs, but just .253 in the regular season;
Crawford hit .345 in the playoffs, but just .273 in the regular season;
Upton hit .321 in the playoffs, but just .273 in the regular season;
Ryan Howard hit .300 in the playoffs, but .251 in the regular season;
Pat Burrell hit .333 in the playoffs, but JUST .250 in the regular season;

On the flip side...we say that we didn't have a clutch player on our team. I would like to remind you of Aramis Ramirez's clutch performances throughout the year. He was often referred to as Mr. Clutch by even Pat Hughes. I think he hit over .350 after the 7th inning, which is considered very clutch. But come October, he became very un-clutch two years in a row.

Based on these two scenarios...how can you make any predictions and how can you build a good team? Do you build your team with lots of .250 hitters but who can produce in the clutch? Or do you build your team with career clutch hitters who can't perform in the playoffs? And how do you know which .250 hitter is going to hit .350 in the playoffs? and which clutch hitter is going to falter in the playoffs? It seems so difficult to make predictions for a short series...