I heard on the radio the other day that there are more major league pitchers that came from the Cubs system than any other system in the majors. I never would have thought that.

Recent site critics say, "Forget the offensive stats. It's all about pitching and defense". Or, "Forget about stats (generally). It's all about the will to win." The Rays (among others) are sited to make the points.

Now, let's see. The Rays have won 3 games in the NLCS by scoring 31 runs, hitting 10 home runs and having a team batting average of .325. The Rays pitchers have given up 13 runs in those 3 games.

What is it about the importance of offense that the critics can't see or don't understand?

The old guy is just kidding here. As Abner first said, "Anything can happen in a short series." But, pitching and defense are critical, and hitting may not be--except in critical situations.

Step-up performances, individually and team-wise, aka the will to win, are also critical. The big people are supposed to do that in big games and big series more often than not. That's why they get to be called stars or "Big People". Our bigs did not step up in the last two NLDS, and their minimally emotional, cool personalities seems partly to blame. To change that and if possible, I would like to exchange one our "Cools" for a talented player who shows some emotion and leadership.

Of course, if we would ever really tell the truth, Lou Piniella is the biggest Cubs' problem of all. The Rays dumped Lou, brought in an unheard of guy to manage Lou's losers, and now it appears the Rays will play in the World Series. I say, "Get rid of the big people; fill the roster with Johnsons, DeRos's, Sotos, Marmols, Marshalls and Hoffpauirs; spend half the budget savings on lower beer and ticket prices and the rest to bring in Joe Maddon!" It's time we speak truth to power!!

Yep, the Rays v. RedSox look like the Bulls v. Pistons of years ago. The Rays are just "more hungry", more athletic, and more determined. Simple as that.

I know sports is always about "stats", but some of you guys drive me nuts on here. You can present all the stats you want regarding tops in offense, tops in OBP, tops in strikeouts, yada yada yada.

Winning teams need heart, character, intelligence, and the total will to win (along with some skill sets to boot). If you parallel to the Bulls streak of championships, indeed they had the greatest player on the planet, but everyone else knew their role on the team, and played to that potential accordingly. And Jordan would "call guys out" who didn't perform, or more importantly, didn't invest the effort. I recall a game once (and it was a meaningless regular season game), when the Bulls went down by 30 by the second quarter in Denver (rare that ever happened). Well, rather than folding the tent, they displayed an offensive and defensive charge that rallied them back by the end. They refused to stop battling, even on a meaningless night.

So rather than ramble here, the point is we need more guys with that "will to win", along with role players who will execute all the little things to effectively support the top leaders on the team. Soriano....no! Lee....no! For all the high priced prima donas on this team, how interesting it was that DeRosa and Edmonds were the clubhouse leaders during crunch time.

So for all the stats that looked great in the regular season, this team simply lacked the character and "will" to produce when everything was on the line. You look at the current Rays and say "great for them"! Their effort and energy puts us to shame.

I always wondered what happened to Kevin Foster after he left the Cubs. Harry Carey would always comment on how the fans were "dancing in the streets of Evanston" whenever he pitched well... or wait, was that with Randy Myers and Vancouver? At at any rate, he continues to stand out in my memory of former cubbies, and will be missed.

As far as proposed trades go, I used to be completely against Beltran because of his monstrous salary demands the year of his free agency. But he does fit the bill as a power-hitting left handed center fielder. And I never had any patience for Soriano in the first place. At any rate, it would be a blockbuster trade if it were to go down.

That being said, I don't think the Cubs need to tinker with the offense too much. They led the league in runs last year, and shouldn't have that dramatic of a drop-off next year. And even if they do, it doesn't predict how well they will do next year.

Look at the teams that made the playoffs this year. In the NL, the dodgers, brewers, cubs, and phillies ranked 1, 2, 3, and 4 in ERA respectively. In the AL, the Rays, Angels, Red Sox, and White Sox ranked 2, 3, 4, and 6 respectively.

If you look at where they ranked offensively by # of runs scored, the cubs, phillies, brewers, and dodgers ranked 1, 3, 7, and 13 respectively. In the AL, the Red Sox, White Sox, Rays, and Angels ranked 2, 5, 9, and 10 respectively.

My point is, offense is expendable, but pitching is not. I think we should stop focusing on how to obtain more "sluggers" in the lineup, and go after premier pitching instead. I would easily trade Soriano and prospects for Lincecum, Carlos Lee, Santana, Webb, Volquez... i would trade offense anyday for pitching.

Case in point, in 2003, the Cubs had the 9th ranked offense, but the 3rd ranked pitching, and #1 in strikeouts. We faced a team that not only was #1 in offense that year, but I believe set a record for number of runs scored. Yet, our pitching dominated the series, and the Cubs came out on top.

I love to see HR's at Wrigley. I love it when the Cubs score so many runs in a game that the opposing team wishes for the slaughter rule. Management knows this too, and that is why they spend the $$$ for high-priced free agent sluggers with inflated statistics to draw fans to the ballpark. MLB knows this, and that's why they tightened the strike zone, brought in the fences, and did whatever else possible to rack up the runs. But history has shown time and time again that pitching (as boring as it is unless you're a pitcher too), ultimately prevails. I'll be the first to admit: i'm not a big derrek lee fan. But as Joe S pointed out, he's one of the top first baseman in the league and a fine defensive post.

As the old saying goes, successful teams are built with a combination of speed, defense up the middle, and solid pitching. Championship teams have that, plus desire and strong leadership. I like Piniella at the helm. I don't question the desire of the team. Now let's get some frickin pitching and win this thing next year!

there is a reason why Pierre is a $50+ million back-up in CF for the Dodgers. He has a weak throwing arm, low OBP, and is mainly a singles type slap hitter. We already have Theriot as that guy.

I'm with you on everything else though. You don't go out "pining" for all these guys, but are like, "yeah, if it happens, it's cool", so I respect that.

I think the ONLY way trading Soriano makes sense is if in return you get Carlos Beltran. Guys like Beltran and Manny are hard to come by in terms of rising to the occasion in the postseason, and both show up to flat out play, which is what we so desperately need on this team. Soriano has never shown up in the postseason, and we can't expect him to do so anytime soon. Last I checked, we weren't in the business of winning only the regular season...we are in it to win the World Series!!!

Several people on here, myself included, have cited varying reasons for making changes, such as:

1) We're getting older in our lineup. ARAM (30), Lee (33), Soriano (32), DeRosa (33), and Fukudome (31) are all in their thirties. Our pitching staff only has three, however, which is no surprise, considering it pretty much carried us all year with youth. Lilly (32), Dempster (31), and Wood (31) would be the only thirty year olds if Dempster and Wood are re-signed for next year.

2) Our lineup in the last two postseasons has looked very old and unmotivated

3) Lee looked every bit of his age this year, and then some

4) Soriano has fragile legs

5) The model for the postseason now seems to be youth. Even though Manny is in his late 30's, he keeps himself in phenomenal shape, which is why he performs at a higher level than most his age...a difference, believe it or not, that has been more pronounced in the post-greenie era in baseball. Look at the Red Sox, Rockies, Phillies, Rays, Brewers, Angels, D'Backs, Dodgers, etc., teams of the last few postseasons. They have all made a commitment to youth in their lineups. So is it any surprise that they've made the postseason, and in doing so, in the case of every one of those teams---won at least one postseason game, and in the case of every team but the Brewers and Angels...made it beyond the first round. While I understand the regular season success we had is quite an accomplishment, and our veterans had a lot to do with that...also keep in mind some of our biggest hits came from younger guys like Soto, Theriot, and Fontenot this year. All you have to do to understand this whole postseason theory is just look at their big stars on their teams now...like Utley, Howard, Loney, Eithier, Fielder, Braun, Teixeira, Napoli, Pedroia, Ellsbury, J Upton, C Jackson, BJ Upton, Longoria, Hawpe, Holliday, etc., etc.

The ONLY up-and-coming mid to late 20's hitter we have is Soto. You have to be proactive and unafraid to trade your stars nowadays. The same can be said for trading your so-called top prospects for proven 20-something talent. We need to follow that plan, or get ready for the same old---same old in the postseason like we've seen the past 2 years. I would bet that getting Teixeira, or maybe Mike Jacobs, or JimK's idea of that one middle infielder, and perhaps Milton Bradley, would go a long way to improving the team

The Rays just went up 3-1 over the Red Sox at Boston: Final Rays 13 Red Sox 4. At one point it was 9-1. Big Papi and Tim Wakefield look very old--which is hard for a knuckleballer to do. The Rays have hit 8 HR's in the first 7 innings over 3 games.

After a 2-0 shutout the first game, the Red Sox starters have been slammed early in the next 3. Sox pitchers gave up an amazing 39 runs in the last 3 gtames. Beside the early home runs by his teammates, Carl Crawford had 5 hits and 2 stolen bats--givning some indication that he may be over his injury. The Rays are a (rare) triumph of the Little People over the Big People.

The Dodgers will likely try to unload Andruw Jones in the offseason. If LA ate a good portion of his salary would it be worth taking a risk on him as our CF for one year? He's likely better than our alternatives and might have one solid year left in the tank. Not sure I like it ... but just wanted to throw that idea out there.

I can't believe I forgot CF!

Probably the same mix of players this year: Pie, Edmonds, and Johnson.

The hope would be that Pie would elevate his game and win the job in ST. Edmonds would be a great guy off the bench, and would guard against a Pie slump. Reed "BTS" Johnson is a good backup...definitely better than Angel Pagan ever was.

If Edmonds doesn't resign, though, then I am not sure I want to risk CF on Pie/Johnson.

You do have the option of moving Fukudome to CF, and then trying a new big bat in the OF, whether you give Hoffpauir a shot, or you try for a trade.

I don't like the idea of DeRosa as the permanent RF...he is perfect in the supersub role, and helps guard against injuries in many key positions.

I can live with one more year of Edmonds/Johnson/Pie. But if Edmonds is gone, Pie better step up, or Hendry should be forced to make a move.

How about Juan Pierre? Looks like he is expendable in LA...

If you can trade Lee somehow and sign Texiera to replace him, fine.

Orlando Hudson at 2B? Sure...seems injury prone the last two years though.

Brian Roberts at 2B? Sure...I was for trading him last off-season.

Move Theriot to 2B, and sign Furcal? Sure.

Sign Raul Ibanez??? No. Way.

Get rid of Soriano??? No...bad move.

Fukudome...give him one more 1/2 year. If he can't get it together by the all-star break, then make a trade, or try Hoffpauir.

Trade Marquis? Sure, if you can find a taker...doesn't matter what we get back really. Plug in Guzman or Smardzia.

Or return Wood to the rotation, and elevate Marmol, and have Guzman and/or Smardzia(sp?) try out as the new 8th inning guy.

Honestly...it is the same issues I had last off-season: you have 2B and SS occupied by border-line bench players, and you have 1 weak link in the rotation.

Other than that, the team is fine.

They just need to get a better attitude, and a killer instinct.

And Joe S...I would do a Peavy for Pie/Marshall tomorrow!

Jim K...thanks for your payroll post. Made good sense.

I just look at teams like the Twins (like you mentioned), the Marlins and now the Rays, and see exciting organizations built around young talent, high energy, high character, and managers ready to "coach" these kids to perform to their fullest potential. And these "kids" are eager to perform because they don't have the security of long-term, no-trade clauses. Now granted, the aforementioned teams will typically lose their top talent at some point just based on the game economics, but I just don't like anything beyond a 3 year deal (and that provides a no-trade provision). And as the Yankees, Cubs, Mets and Angels have all found out, you still can't "buy" the World Series. You have to find that balance between motivated (and I'll reinforce "high character") veteran leadership talent, very selective upside FA signings, effective draft picks, and constantly fueling the farm system.

SAD NEWS

Former Cubs pitcher Kevin Foster passed away of cancer.....

He spent 1994-1998 with the Cubs. He started 28 games in 1995 going 12-11 and started 25 games in 1997 going 10-7. He ran into arm trouble pnly appearing in 3 games with the Cubs in 1998. He tried to comeback in 2001 with the Rangers but that lasted 9 games.

Jake Peavy will be moved from the Padres....the team is in turmoil with the divorce of owner John Moores...he doesnt want to get rid of the team, so he will de-value it in the short term...that is why Peavy is on the block.

No way the Padres take Soriano's contract....what I can see the Padres doing is dumping Peavy to us for Pie (They need a young center fielder for expansive Petco Park) and perhaps Marshall and another young arm....that is VERY much a possible trade....Heck, I might just drive to Petco at lunch and see if I can catch Sandy Alderson leaving the stadium...lol

Thoughts On Payroll. First Two: Our payroll issues are scary, and we likely have to move a big contract if we bring in a new one. Add'l thoughts:

The payroll inuendos and outuendos start with last season's total of $118 million. We likely drop about $14 million spread mostly among Howry, Lieber, Eyre and Ward--an adjusted PR of $104 million.

The built increases for 2009 total about $25 million, including in millions: Dome (5.5) Lilly (5), Marquis (3.5) Sori (3), Z (2.8), Harden (2.5) Aram (1.7) and DeRo (.8). These built-in's take payroll up to $129 million.

To-be=negotiated increases in payroll and modest increases for players limited to near-minimums are at least $18 million. My estimates of +$8 mil for Dempster and + $6 mil for Wood may be low. That leaves $4 mil to spread among Soto, Marmol, Gaudin, Johnson, Fontenot, Marshall and Cotts. That's probably a couple $mil low to keep some of the 1 year guys. The $18 mil in this category increases total 2009 payroll to $147 mil.

Before I did this review, I guessed JH would get a 2009 payroll budget of $130 mil. Now I'm thinking that payroll has to go to $140 to maintain the current competitive level. That is likely to happen.

Obviously, if $147 mil is needed to cover players we now have, an increase to $160 mil is necessary to have a shot at a guy like (say) Furcal. I don't see $160 mil. Or, the Cubs have to move a big contract or two. It is conceivable that we will let Dempster and Wood go elsewhere--which gives me terrible vibes. I'm not planning on that.

It is the budget limitations that have prompted me to seek improvements in low cost, younger players like Seth Smith and Sean Rodriquez. The veteran free agent signing I have been thinking about is lefty reliever, Brian Fuentes, a likely $7 to 9 mil guy. That may not be possible.

Freeing up budget is also why I've stated that the Mets might do a deal for Soriano in exchange for one helpful but not spectacular player and a couple of quality prospects. The Mets are in a position to shed a few big contracts and have to compete in the Big Apple. As an aside, they do not need to shed Beltran's contract, and I don't see any reason why they would.

The business side of MLB sucks with mega-sized, long term contracts almost always hurting a team at some point during their terms and locking out timely changes that often are desireable. But that is the Stars and Trenchermen System that elite, competitive teams have to deal with. I refer to our "Big People" and our "Little People", and have been saying that we likely have our Big People.... You have to admire the Twins who regularly give up their stars (Santana and Hunter last season) but still manage to be competitive.

Sounds like continued interest in Jake Peavy will continue over the near term, with his interest primarily in the NL. I would love to see him on the Cubs staff....perhaps for a Soriano and Marshall combination. Then Lee/Cedeno to the Giants for Sanchez or Cain.

Provide Hoffpauer his "due" at 1B (if we won't bid on Texeira), and fill the LF spot thru a free-agent or creative trade with the Bucs for McLouth.

I really think 'ol Sam wants to boost the value of the Cubs before selling....and is in no rush with the economy anyhow....SO....I think he gives Hendry the green light to spend big bucks to go get what we need....we had such an awesome regular season....no reason to think that major changes are needed....I see good things ahead......

I would rather focus on moving Soriano than Lee. Soriano's injury history and his uselessness in the leadoff spot cause more offensive black holes than Lee's "pedestrian" numbers in the 3 hole. Granted, Soriano's HUGE contract will pose problems moving, but if you give a top prospect (Ceda, Hart, etc) and take back an unappetizing contract (Beltran perhaps) it can get done. For all it's worth, Beltran plays a position of need, bats left handed, and provides 20+ HR potential & an upper .200's BA. I think he's the guy we should target, plain & simple. Would I love to have Texiera? Yes, I would, signing Texiera & getting Cain or Sanchez for Lee would be great, but highly doubtful. My fan goggle dream is to sign Furcal for 3, and trade Soriano for Beltran. Resign Dempster & Wood, give Hoffpauir regular PT in left along w/ Reed J against lefties & let Dome figure it out. Worst case scenario you play DRo in right if Dome flames out. We've still got 3 years on Dome, I'd believe we need to see if he gets it straightened out prior to the break next season. All that being said, payroll then goes up $12M for Demp, $10M for Wood, and $13M for Furcal. Do we have $35M? That is the ? I don't have any answer for. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Neil...thanks I should've known the conversion came to easily...and maybe your wife might like 2 Neils...one for the CCO group to have and one she can gave for herself...lol

Jim K I like that proposed deal and agree if there are duplicate names you should do something to identify that....

Aaron.... I'm guessing tht you are AaronC (as in closer)--long a poster here. Denker was picked up by the Padres. Did you forget that we will have Sean Rodriquez for middle IF depth? LOL

Again assuming that we keep Aram, Sori, DLee, Z, Demp and Wood, I have my second trade seeking to improve our team for 2009. (The first brought us 2nd baseman with pop, Sean Rodriquez, versatile OF back up Gary Matthews and 2 two promising minor league pitchers--for Dome, Hart and Ceda.

The second (small deal) sends Guzman, Atkins(RHP) and Spears (IF) to Colorado for (my man) Seth Smith, AA LSP Keith Weiser and 17th ranked RRP, William Harris. Weiser (unranked) is 24 and was 8-12 at AA with a 3.16 ERA in 179 IP. He walked 25 and struck out 88. At single A, Harris was 3-4 with a 2.77 ERA, allowing 51 H in 61 IP and getting 70 SO's against only 20 W's.

With Dome traded, Smith (26) arrives as an exceptional OF prospect with a Rockies' line of .259-4-15 and a .350 OBP in 108 AB's. His AAA line is a solid .323-10-53 with 46 W, 76 SO's, 11 SB's, 3 errors and a .426 OBP. Smith stood out in September and the playoffs for Colorado a year ago. Like Hoffpauir, he has a lefty bat that can hit .300 with 25 HR's in the bigs. Smith can run, throw and play CF too. With the Rockies exceptional OF depth, including Hawpe and Holliday at the corners, Smith has not had much opportunity.

These two trades add power bats from both sides and players with good plate discipline who can play defense too. I think they fall into the category of the somewhat unhearlded dues payers who skills and team contributions were always there but were overlooked for various reasons. Hoffpauir is like that. To help make the point, so are standout contributors to the current Tampa Rays surge: Dioner Navaro, J.P. Howell, Pena and Delcarmen. Xavier Nady too took some time to materialize as a solid player.

With our biggest contract deals likely done, these trades could give us infield and outfield bats combining average and power that we now don't see at the top of our farm system--and possibily two or three outstanding pitchers two or three years out.

I can see Smith in CF and Hoffpauir in RF in some games--or Smith in CF and DeRo in right with Fontenot at 2B. But most likely Smith plays RF most of the time.

Re. CCO site name confusion, people who see a name already in use ought to add a letter or other disinguishing addition to prevent duplicates.

Hey guys...didn't know if you heard or not, but the Giants released Travis Denker....I guess he's kind of in the Pedroia line of scrappy player with power. I'd love him on the bench if we could get him. I read about him, and a lot of their fans are confused why they let him go, and cited a bunch of other 2nd basemen at his age (22) as reference. He'd be worth a flier in my opinion, especially if and when Cedeno is traded/released:

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=3828

Jim...I think my wife would tell you one is enough.

Hmmmm, we have two Aaron's, and two Matt Haggard's.

Will there ever be two Neils?

Joe S., the Aaron above is not the Aaron you have been discussing topics back and forth....same name, two different people.

Aaron....so what brought the change of heart on Adam Dunn? Yesterday's post you were very much in favor of him....did the breakdown of numbers I posted about both Dunn and Lee give you a change of heart? I think the numbers I posted yesterday show 1) Dunn Sucks and 2) Lee hasn't lost the production people think he has.....

In any event...glad to see people are getting off the Dunn bandwagon...

Despite all the positives of Lee....I would be on the Texiera bandwagon if we could get him.....but no other free agent scenario would I ditch Lee......

I agree with Ryan R Dunn is a DH. Plus I dont like his Strikeouts.

Maybe 5 years ago I would agree with the Abreu thing. I don't hate the guy, I think he's pretty good, but he's not scary. He's a left-handed DLee.

I agree....No Adam Dunn!! If D. Lee gets traded, you have to make a run at Mark Teixiera. Of course, the Cubs won't be alone in the pursuit of Teixiera, so we will need a backup plan. Bobby Abreu is a guy I would love to see in a Cubs uniform.....very patient at the plate, has consistently good OBP, and he's a left-handed bat. Exactly what the Cubs need.

Be careful what you ask for.

While Lee is not an ideal 3 hitter he is still one heck of a ball player and I think he will be very motivated next year. I agree with other posts... unless you get Texiera (or equal value) you keep Lee and look to upgrade the power and clutch hitting while not giving up the athleticism and good average and OBP at the 3 hole. I think replacing Lee at 1B with Dunn would be a huge mistake.

This team desparately needs some tough middle of the order hitters, a top of the rotation low risk producer and another late inning producer in relief. I am very weary of never having a good feeling about the 9th inning and the never ending cloud of potential injury. KROD would be nice but I doubt the Cubs will be able or willing to get him. There must be some good arms at AA or AAA in other organizations the Cubs could try to trade good value for. Question is... how often does Hendry trade for non-experienced talent...not excactly a risk taker. There just aren't enough Pittsburg Pirate "Kingmaker" teams to fleece.

Dunn at first would give up far more runs due to defensive errors, than his bush league outfielding skills have given up so far in his carreer. Dunn is a DH.

Adam Dunn at 1B? Uh, no.

"LA Fights Way Back Into NLCS". Gee, nice to see a team that has some fight to compete.