Game One Hundred Sixteen - Cubs 3 Cardinals 2 - 11 innings
WP - Bobby Howry (5-4) LP - Ryan Franklin (4-5) Save - None
It doesn't get much better than Friday afternoon at the old ballpark on Clark and Addison....the Cubs and Cardinals in extra innings with Lou Piniella's crew coming out on top. Friday afternoon was another team-win as the Cubs improved to 24 games over .500 for the first time since last game of the 1989 season. Jim Edmonds supplied the power and the only two runs for the Cubs in the first 10 innings of the game. And not only did Edmonds comeback to haunt his former team and manager, the one-time Redbird gave a curtain call at Wrigley Field....for once and for all, Jim Edmonds is a Chicago Cub.
Jim Edmonds was also in the mix defensively, making one of the several highlight plays turned in by the Cubs' defense. Alfonso Soriano made his 6th outfield assist of the season when he threw out Joe Mather in the 6th inning, with the Cubs down 2-1, trying to score from 3rd on a fly ball by Troy Glaus. Mark DeRosa saved a run in the 9th with a bare-hand pick up of a bunt by Skip Schumaker and barely nipping the Cardinals outfielder at 1st as Cesar Izturis was scoring the would-be go ahead run. But the turning point in the game came courtesy of Geovany Soto in the 5th inning.
Cesar Izturis doubled and advanced to 3rd on a throwing error by Jim Edmonds. With 1 out and the game tied at one, Tony LaRussa called for the squeeze play with Braden Looper at the plate, but Ted Lilly threw the ball low and inside, Soto picked it out of the dirt and tagged Izturis for the second out of the inning.
Jim Edmonds hit two home runs, one to right in the 2nd inning that included a bat toss towards the visitors' dugout and one to left in the 7th inning, against his former team.....his 13th and 14th in a Cubs' uniform. Edmonds' second of the day tied the game and setup the walkoff single by Henry Blanco in the 11th.
For the third time on the current homestand, the Cubs winning rally began with a walk. Derrek Lee worked the Cubs second free pass of the game to start the 11th inning. Aramis Ramirez worked the count to 3-2 and with Lee running with the pitch, lined a single to right. Lee advanced to 3rd on the play. Tony LaRussa intentionally walked Kosuke Fukudome to load the bases....with no outs.
Geovany Soto was lifted for a pinch runner in the bottom of the 9th after a 1-out single to center. Henry Blanco replaced him behind the plate in the top of the 10th and stepped in with the bases loaded and no outs in the bottom of the 11th after Tony LaRussa brought his infield and outfield in. Ryan Franklin threw strike one to Blanco, then Hank White ripped a single into left center past a diving Cesar Izturis, Lee scored the winning run and Blanco was mobbed by his teammates near the mound.
Ted Lilly turned in another solid start. Lilly made only one mistake in 7 1/3 innings, a solo home run by Joe Mather in the 3rd inning. The defense helped Lilly work his way out of the trouble he created. Lilly allowed 2 runs on 7 hits with 4 strikeouts and 2 walks. With the go ahead run on 1st, Carlos Marmol closed out the 8th by retiring Albert Pujols on a fly out to right and after an intentional walk to Ryan Ludwick, Marmol struck out Troy Glaus swinging on a 3-2 pitch.
Jeff Samardzija pitched two scoreless innings and allowed only 1 hit....to Albert Pujols in the 10th. The Shark showed a lot of poise when Pujols tried to steal 2nd. Pujols left just a little early, and the rookie calmly stepped off the mound and threw out Pujols at 2nd base. Bobby Howry faced the minimum in the 11th with 2 strikeouts and more than earned his 5th win of the season.
Friday's victory was the Cubs' 70th of the season and 44th of the year at Wrigley Field. The Cubs posted their 70th win a year ago in a 6-5 victory over the Astros on September 2nd and the 44 wins equals the home win total from the 2007 season.
Pitching and defense, they say, wins championships and for one day in early August at Wrigley, the Cubs pitching and defense won an important game against their biggest rival. Ted Lilly, Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija and Bobby Howry gave up 2 runs on 8 hits with 8 strikeouts and 4 walks in 11 innings....and the defense made every play possible to give the offense time to win the game.
The Cardinals' first run came in 3rd inning with 2 outs. Lilly quickly got ahead of Joe Mather, 0-2, before hanging a curve and paying the price. Mather tied up the game but Lilly recovered and allowed only one other run.
Lilly started falling behind hitters in the 6th. He gave up a lead off single to Skip Schumaker and then a single to left center by Joe Mather. With runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs, Adam Kennedy grounded out to Mark DeRosa for the first out of the inning. Schumaker scored to give the Cardinals a 2-1 lead.
Lilly intentionally walked Albert Pujols and unintentionally walked Ryan Ludwick to load the bases. Troy Glaus stepped in and hit what appeared to be a sacrifice fly to left on a 1-0 pitch but Alfonso Soriano threw a one-hop strike to the plate....and nailed Mather at home to end the inning.
Jim Edmonds robbed Yadier Molina of a bloop single to start the 7th with a diving catch in left center and Lilly worked around a single by Cesar Izturis (the former Cub who had trouble reaching base during his time in Chicago, was 2-for-3 with a walk).
Jeff Samardzija worked around a 1-out walk and two stolen bases by Izturis in the 9th and showed a lot of poise on the mound in the 10th when he calmly stepped off the rubber and threw out Albert Pujols trying to advance to 2nd....
While the Cubs offense was pretty much a no show against Braden Looper, the Cubs hit when it mattered most on Friday, especially Jim Edmonds, and picked up a big win against Tony LaRussa and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Carlos Zambrano will face Todd Wellemeyer in the second game of the series Saturday afternoon on FOX.
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I was at the game today and was able to say hi to Mark Cuban. All the fans around me were going nuts and telling him to buy the Cubs. When Soriano threw that strike to home Cuban pumped his fist in the air. It was awesome, he's such a nice and pretty regular, "dude." I really hope he buys the Cubs. Oh, and great win too!
THIS TEAM IS BLESSED!
HERE ARE THE PERCENT CHANCE OF EACH TEAM QUALIFYING FOR THE PLAY-OFFS FROM BEST TO WORST:
1 ANGELS 99.22435
2 CUBS 96.76474
3 RAYS 89.06556
4 RED SOX 84.21547
5 BREWERS 70.27023
6 WHITE SOX 66.21472
7 DIAMONDBACKS 62.12065
8 PHILLIES 52.42510
9 METS 44.18023
10 DODGERS 36.47867
11 TWINS 34.13124
12 CARDINALS 19.38933
13 YANKEES 18.45272
14 MARLINS 15.19681
15 TIGERS 4.37292
16 BLUE JAYS 2.25405
17 ROCKIES 2.06518
18 RANGERS 1.66622
19 BRAVES .78294
20 ROYALS .19299
21 ASTROS .17707
22 GIANTS .14150
23 ATHLETICS .12042
24 ORIOLES .04796
25 INDIANS .04139
26 REDS .00347
27 PIRATES .00324
28 PADRES .00047
29 NATIONALS .00027
30 MARINERS .00009
TOTAL 800.00000
THE REASON THE TOTAL IS 800 PERCENT IS BECAUSE THERE ARE 8 TEAMS THAT WILL MAKE THE PLAY-OFFS. WHEN YOU DIVIDE THE TOTAL BY THE NUMBER OF PLAY-OFF TEAMS YOU GET 100 ALL THE TIME. WHENEVER SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO AND WASHINGTON GET ELIMINATED, THE TOTAL WILL STILL BE 800. IT WILL STAY 800 PERCENT, EVEN IF THE ANGELS, CUBS AND RAYS CLINCH BEFORE THE OTHER 5 TEAMS CLINCH AND/OR MORE TEAMS GET ELIMINATED. IN THAT CASE 300 GOES TO THE ANGELS, CUBS AND RAYS AND 500 GOES TO THE REST, BUT WITH A SMALLER GAP. THAT'S WHY IT'S BEST TO CLINCH AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
TEAMS IN=100
IF 7 TEAM ARE IN, AND YOU HAVE 2 TEAMS BATTLING FOR THE LAST SPOT AND TEAM A HAS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE, THEN YOU HAVE THIS:
7 TEAMS IN=700
TEAM A BATTLING + TEAM B BATTLING=100,
TEAM A=60 TEAM B=40;
7 TEAMS IN + TEAM A + TEAM B=800
700+60+40=800
SOME TEAMS WITH WORST RECORDS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE BECAUSE OF THEIR DIVISION. THESE PERCENTAGES ARE BASED ON REGRESSION TO MEAN RATIO, HOME RECORD, RUNS SCORED VS RUNS ALLOWED, BUT MAINLY DIVISION LEAD. NOT ALL DIVISION LEADERS NECESSARILY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN A 2ND PLACE TEAM, BUT USUALLY WILL WHEN THE SEASON NEARS ITS END.
I THANK GOD FOR MY MATH ABILITY. IF YOU'RE CONFUSED, I'LL TRY TO EXPLAIN IT WHEN THE SEASON IS NEARLY OVER. I THINK NEIL WOULD UNDERSTAND IT!
GO CUBS AND NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS!
What a great win yesterday....listened to the whole thing while driving to pick up my son from camp. As usual Pat and Ron were phenomenal, more than making up for me not being able to see Jimmy Baseball's face on the first home run and bat flip toward LaRussa. When Hank hit the game winning single Ronny was absolutely beside himself!
On a completely unrelated note, does anyone else have a tendency to completely skip over messages typed in all caps? I guess winning brings out all kinds of fans.
Let's go for the series clincher today, setting up another ESPN Sunday Night game for Joe Morgan to hate to call!
Go Cubs!
JOET....I suspect your mathematical model is not sufficiently nuanced/intricate to serve your predictive mission. You assign playoff percentage possibilities to a model that includes all 30 teams based largely upon their won-loss records. The actual competition for making the playoffs is among a few teams in each division for 6 of the slots and among only NL or AL teams for their leaague's wild card spot. Looking only at the wild card, the Cardinals and your 19% chance for making the playoffs, in fact, have a much better chance than the Dbacks which you give a 62% chance.
I wasn't a math major, but my take is that your (mostly) linear, single factor model is less well suited for the task than a matrix model that seeks to mathematically relate such (remaining/current) factors as strength of schedule and team composition--as well as prior winning percentage. For example, neither the Dbacks nor the Dodgers have games remaining against the Cubs. You give the Dbacks a 62% chance of making the playoffs and the Dodgers a 36% chance--even though in their division they have nearly identical won-loss records. The addition of Manny likely makes a large competitive difference between the two teams going forward--meaning that the Dodgers would now rank higher in a sophisticated mathematical model that includes team composition.
Your 7 teams in and 1 spot open percentages seem flawed. The top two competitors you cite are more likely to each have 60% (more or less) probabilities because they would be the two best league records that didn't win their division.
My suggestion is that we all are better served to recognize that cumulative winning percentage matters but so do other factors--especially in late season short series that often settle several of the playoff spots.