unfortunately for us, we'll have a pretty hard time this weekend with the Giants and what they're throwing against us:
Cain (5-7) 4.30 ERA vs Marquis (6-5) 4.78 ERA---advantage Giants....Cain won round 1 vs Marquis already
Correia (1-5) 4.96 ERA vs Harden (5-1) 2.34 ERA----advantage Cubs
Lincecum (10-2) 2.66 ERA vs Dempster (10-3) 3.13 ERA
----advantage Giants....Lincecum DOMINATED our lineup in round one, and pitched against Gallagher, and while Dempster is a more formidable opponent than Gallagher is, our hitting has sucked lately in the clutch, RISP, etc., and is highly inconsistent, so unless Dempster throws a shutout, and Lincecum gets hurt, or we make him throw 100 pitches in 5 innings, then we might have a chance....

it doesn't look good though, especially when we can't put away bad teams like the Giant, Reds, etc....We need to sweep those series.

Again, I invite you to look at our remaining schedule:

Houston- 3 @ Houston, 3 @ home, 3 @ home, 3 @ Houston
Arizona- 3 @ Arizona
Florida- 4 @ home, 3 @ Florida
Milwaukee- 4 @ Miwaukee, 3 @ home, 3 @ Milwaukee (ends year)
Pittsburgh- 3 @ home, 3 @ Pittsburgh
St. Louis- 3 @ home, 3 @ St. Louis, 3 @ home
Atlanta- 3 @ Atlanta
Cincinatti- 3 @ home, 3 @ Cincy
Washington- 3 @ home
Philly- 4 @ home
NY Mets- 4 @ Mets

Now here's our records against each team thus far:
vs Houston: 3-3
vs Arizona: 3-0
vs Florida: 0-0
vs Milwaukee: 2-4
vs Pittsburgh: 6-3
vs St. Louis: 3-3
vs Atlanta: 3-0
vs Cincinatti: 5-4
vs Washington: 1-2
vs Phillies: 1-2
vs Mets: 2-0

We have winning records against only 5 of the 10 teams we've played against (excluding Florida)...not a very good line

Anyways, just thought you guys might to know what we have ahead....I think a lot of you think it's just going to be a cake walk...Philly and Milwaukee, in particular, have beaten us up pretty good with their offense, and that's where we've struggled a lot this year---consistent pitching.

At least 7 of the 11 teams (Atlanta, Philly, Florida, NY Mets, St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Arizona) will be in playoff contention, so it's going to be even tougher to get through them. And of those 7 teams, we have a winning record against only 3 of them...take away Florida, and we're at exactly 14-9 against these teams in contention....total, all 11 teams included, we're at 29-21, which is a 58% winning percentage...

I like to go by concrete stats like that when making judgement, and at that pace, that's not winning 2 out of 3 the rest of the way to get 102 wins...hate to break it to you. That'd EASILY get us there...IF they keep with those stats at 58% against those teams, then we'd win 95, which I'd hope would be enough, but can we really be sure?

Aaron, in the past 4 games, how many runs have the Cubs scored with 2 outs and what are they hitting with RISP?

Also, check Lincecum's line against the Mets and Cubs. What is his line in those 2 starts?

Aaron,

I have been reading your posts for quite a while now, and I think you are a die-hard Cubs fan and I admire you for your passion. But.........start enjoying this fantastic season. I don't look that far forward in the season. Try to take it a game at a time. We have a very good team. They have the best record in the NL. They have just traded for the starter we were all hoping for. Why worry about the teams we have to play? Remember all the other teams have to play their games also. I try not to look back or look forward. That is the only way I can enjoy what is happening today. Relax and enjoy. It really is fun. I hope you don't take this negatively. GO CUBS!

A few thoughts.

* I believe that in Baseball, things have a tendency to even themselves out. e.g. since we swept
Atlanta/AZ earlier this year at home, I highly doubt that we will sweep them again in ATL/AZ. I also don't think that Washington will win the series win they visit Wrigley Field. I think that it will be a one game difference in regards to season series against Milwaukee and Cincy. We will probably split with Philly when they come to town and when we visit NY. Face it, 4 game series usually go 2-2. Florida has owned us the last two years, actually the entire state of Florida has. We should win 3 out of 7. I think that we will pound St. Louis, continue our winning ways vs Pittsburgh.
I believe this will come down to how well we play vs Houston for those 12 games.

It's funny that when I started reading the first long comment, as soon as I started to see the pessimism in it, I said this has to be by Aaron...and lo and behold....scrolled down and saw it was Aaron! LOL!

In my mind, baseball is a very strange sport...it is VERY difficult to make predictions in this game. You might think that having Z on the mound would give us an advantage, but there might be some days when he just doesn't "have it." Or, on other days, a very dormant offense can wake up and make up for its dormancy in one day (as we saw today with the Reds). And then, there can be teams such as the Astros of the past few years who played horrible in the first half and then played so well in the second half that they went to the playoffs. Another example...this year's Cardinals...nobody thought that they could possibly hold the third best record in the NL by the All Star break.

What i'm trying to say is that in baseball, stats don't mean a whole lot in terms of prediction. Baseball is so much about streaks and about who is hot at the right moment. When the Sox came to Wrigley, we swept them, and mostly because ARAM was white hot. And based on that one would not have predicted the Cubs getting swept at the Cell a week later..and one can attribute that sweep to ARAM's frozen cold bat during that weekend.

So....as Gramps said...let's dwell on the future games so much. One can prepare for the future only in general terms, and the Cubs did that by getting Harden and Gaudin. Other than that...just enjoy what we've been so lucky to experience so far, and hope that the Cubbies can keep up this pace in the second half...and there is no reason why they shouldn't be able to do that.

Sorry for taking up so much of your time fans...this is my first long post. Hope you guys will forgive me.

Go Cubbies!

Sorry...I meant to say..."as Gramps said...let's NOT dwell on the future games so much."

I don't think the Cubs will win another game this year...

just FYI...it wasn't meant as a negative post by any means, which is why I took the time to throw out all the records, percentages, etc.

If I just spouted off things like, "oh, we might not win 2 out of 3 the rest of the year in every series", people would be all over me.

I was just trying to keep things in perspective. We're at about 59% right now, and while that's good, it'd give us a record of about 95 wins, but with our records against the teams we play the rest of the way, and as Jim (TP) noted, Florida has absolutely owned us, and additionally, Philly, Milwaukee, and the Cards usually play us really hard, and the Mets have been coming on of late....I'm just saying, a lot of you have your tickets punched for October, and you're WAYYYY ahead of yourselves....

You're telling me to settle down....I'm telling you to do the same....

I used to get REALLY psyched at times like this...'84, '89, '98, '03, even '04. And I'd be really down, and upset when we'd blow it. I live and die by this team....I could talk endlessly about no-names like Doug Strange, Gary Scott, Gary Varsho, etc.---and Dawson's grand slam against the Pirates years ago (part of a 2 homer day), and we still lost to the Bonilla and Bonds led Pirates...that game still hurts when I think of it...I think of the collapse of '04, the completely emotionally undisciplined team of '03 in the playoffs, and the overachieving Wild Card team of '98. I still think of Durham in the same light as Buckner, and have no idea why everyone seems to ignore that, and how Grace absolutely DOMINATED the Giants in '89, only to have Clark upstage him....

that's why I'm guarded in my optimism..I no longer get really high...when we get out to huge leads early like 5-0, 7-0, etc., and anyone not named Zambrano or Dempster are on the mound, I automatically think, "man, I hope (fill in starter's name) doesn't give up 5 runs, because I can just see Wuertz, Lieber, or Cotts giving this game away."

I've say that, because I've seen that movie already, and didn't like the ending.

Some of you on here simply just see a post from me, and immediately give it no thought, proclaiming that it's all negative and bullsh$##t....which is NOT the case, and I've tried to be mindful of that lately as I've faced a barrage of crap on here from most of you.

Now, if you guys just want to keep doing that, and don't want me to post, I'll find something else to do...I just think it's fun to see people's opinions, and really enjoy it....but if you look at posts during the games, and shortly after, I've purposely not said things at times, opting just to see how negative everyone else is, and it's hilarious.....but the minute I say anything, everyone jumps all over it, which, as I said is unfortunate, because I've tried backing up everything, just putting out facts, stats, etc. as much as possible

anyway, whatever, night all

Jason B...that is hilarious!

I'm actually looking forward to playing the Marlins, we have a chance to beat them for the first time in a year...officially I hate them more than the Brewers but a little less than the Cardinals.

Aaron...I'm not saying we will or not; but if the Cubs find a way to win the world series...would you be happy? Do you give JH a little credit for the last trade?

well, I was going to bed until I saw that Agustin...I guess you missed that post where I gave Hendry props for that....but, anyway, I'm going elsewhere....I guess I could not respond to it, and act like it doesn't piss me off, but it does. I say things like that, and immediately, everyone except maybe Jim (TP) jumps on anything they think might be the least bit negative and run with it.....that's fine....I accept it, and I move on....

later

Neil,

I have a question for you... just looking for an honest assesment... What is your honest opinion of Ted Lilly this year? Do you think he is the Cubs no.2?

Because quite frankly, I think he has for the most part looked barely like a no.5 starter... A 4.68 ERA with more HR allowed than starts with made?

His ERA is over 5 at Wrigley
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6223/splits;_ylt=Aq9r17Ot_Op.g.W8vJAZ9GqFCLcF

There still seems to be a faction of CCO posters who list the Cubs rotation (without Harden) as Z, Lilly, Dempster.....

Do you agree with such a classification Neil?

Aaron, pal you rock, I like reading your posts but [DUDE.DB]what is up with you? You have a huge CHIP on YOUR SHOULDER. Why do you allways think its about you? It is NOT. You are way too touchy...especially for a guy that writes biblicaly loooooooong posts. And why are you allways saying that you won't post anymore if people don't like what you say? Isn't that Ironic? You can post whatever you like and what? do you want everybody to think the same way you do and tell you how smart you are???????

I was NOT trashing you, I was asking an honest question but because you are such a positive person you take it the wrong way.
BTW if you ever decide not to post again you should dedicate all that time to play the piano...in a year or two you will be in Times Square.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8165

Fukodome barely has an .800 OPS on the season. He is on pace for a .285, 15 HR, 70 RBI season. Not bad, but really FAR short of phenom level..... and with a Corey Patterson like .627 OPS on the road.

Gramps, having the 2nd best record at the all-star break is great... but not fantastic. Fantastic is when the Cubs win the World Series.... Nothing short -- even 100 wins -- is fantastic.... You play for the prize... everything short of the prize is horrible failure.

Baron, I do not consider Lilly a number two. Dempster has earned the "title" with the way he has pitched in the first half.

With Jason Marquis on the staff and the addition of Rich Harden, I would think Lilly is 4th in the rotation.

Lilly and Marquis benefited from the wind blowing in more often than not last summer....this year has been more of a "normal" summer at Wrigley....hence the horrible home ERA for both pitchers.

When Lilly and Marquis pitch at Wrigley, the wind conditions is the first thing I pay attention to....I figured today would be a lot of home runs, but I thought it would be from both teams, not just one.

I expect nothing less than a sweep this weekend. Anything less is a failure.

Aaron,

I disagree with a lot of the points in your posts, BUT I LOVE READING THEM!!! Please keep posting!

baron,

It seems most newcomers to the Cubs improve after their 1st season. I recall seeing former players comment on how the larger amount of day games takes getting used to, and screws up your rhythm/routine before and after games.

It sounds a bit silly, but when I was in my mid-20's (cue "Glory Days") I used to work out a decent amount. I remember one day realizing that the whole energy/supplement market was not quite the scam I assumed it was: you really just had days when your energy levels were lower. Mentally I might be ready to lift heavier weights for more reps, but when I am toast on rep #5, and I was hoping to get to 10, then I know I am in trouble.

In much the same way, this is why baseball was so infested with amphetamines...to help keep energy levels up.

So take the average ballplayer, who is used to games being played at a particular time (doesn't matter if it is during the day or night...just not both) and now his schedule is inconsistent. This likely throws off his energy levels, and if you are low on energy, your swing is a bit slower, you are feeling mentally worn down by the fatigue, and your confidence is probably lower if you don't feel at the top of your game. It all adds up.

Moises Alou, Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez...all had better stats their 2nd year as a Cub. I said the same about Soriano last year, and until he got hurt this 2nd time, he seemed to be well ahead of last year's pace.

My guess is that Fuku adds another 10 to 15 points to his avg next year. I don't know if he will ever be a 30 hr guy, but I don't think the Cubs need that either. I do expect him to be more of a doubles machine, ala Mark Grace, going the opposite field, hitting it in the gaps, etc...

I don't know who our CF will be in the future, but I think we are set at the corner positions, offensively and defensively, the next 3-5 years.

MATT HAGGARD, I LOVE YOU! YOU WERE KIND WHEN I ASKED FOR A RESPONSE FROM NEIL.

REGARDLESS OF OTHER POSTERS COMMENTS, I KEEP THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE. I PREDICT A 94 WIN SEASON. SURE, WE COULD WIN 100+, BUT A WIN TOTAL IN THE 90'S IS MORE LIKELY.

I LIKE LEN KASPER. HE KEEPS THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE. ALWAYS GIVING CREDIT TO OPPOSING TEAMS AND THE CUBS ALSO. WE ARE A DAMN GOOD TEAM! AS I'VE SAID BEFORE, I ROOT FOR BOTH CHICAGO TEAMS. I JUST LOVE THE CUBS MORE. WHEN NORTHWESTERN PLAYS ILLINOIS, I ROOT FOR NORTHWESTERN. BUT I ROOT FOR ILLINOIS SECOND. I JUST LOOK AT IT LIKE THIS:

MLB: CUBS FANS FIRST, WHITE SOX FAN SECOND.
NCAA: NORTHWESTERN FAN FIRST, ILLINOIS FAN SECOND

HOW INSANE IS THIS LIKELY EVENT!:

CUBS HAVE 1 SYLLABLE AND WILL BE 1ST PLACE.
BREWERS HAVE 2 SYLLABLES AND WILL BE 2ND PLACE.
CARDINALS HAVE 3 SYLLABLES AND WILL BE 3RD PLACE.

THIS MAY GIVE ME POWER WITH THE GODS OF ENGLISH.

No one appreciates it more than I Joet.

However...

Aaron needs the love. We need to all tell him how entertaining he is.

Dont get so offensive Aaron. Understand that youre a controversial guy. The bauty of your posts at the CCO is that the best conversations are often ignited by you.

Dont get so jumpity. Try and argue your point with class, man.

I see you like Jay Mariotti. I don't know what you think of the guy. But personally -- I LOVE READING SOME MARIOTTI.

Granted the guy looks at the negatives (he would call it reality, Im sure) but when the man writes he does it with fire and passion.

He tends to get villified and burnt for it. But at least he matters. So when you get burnt for something you post, defend it.

At least you matter. So many other posters often get a thoughtless responce, but you cause some great heated debate.

Much like Mariotti, I enjoy your posts and often disagree with them. Quit threating to take your effort somewhere else and lets discuss baseball!

As for the Cubbie matters at hand..

Baseball is a game of "the present" and "in the moment"

In other words, I don't buy them stats yet.

If you read Kosuke's personal journal-blog, he'll tell you that he knows the league is catching up to him. He realizes he has some work to do, and he intendns on doing it during the break and beyond.

I expect a good second half from him.

The Cubs have lost 11 GAMES AT HOME. If you want to buy into stats, I feel real good against San Francisco. Even with the stud arms on the mound. I expect to take 2 of the three.

(I never knew I had an Aaron-esqe post in me, wow.)

BTW - I'm also a huge Len Kasper fan.

Oh yeh!

By the way.

Ain't Cardinals, a two syllable word? =)

I blame Elliot for mentioning that we could have three ten game winners before the all-star break.