Yogi Berra once said the game of baseball is 90% mental and the other half is physical.... unfortunately that describes Rich Hill. The very talented southpaw possesses all of the talent needed to succeed at the big league level, he proved that a year ago. And after a solid, to very good, first full season in the majors, Hill has regressed....but why?
Before the season started, most would agree that in order for the Cubs to return to the post season they needed Rich Hill to take his game to the next level. Lou Piniella mentioned Hill's importance to the Cubs after his demotion to Iowa and said it would be difficult to replace his 200 innings and they hoped Hill would get it together and return soon.
Hill started 4 games in Arizona this past spring and pitched in 2 others out of the pen with similar results as his 5 starts in the regular season before being optioned to Iowa. Piniella stressed the importance of a fast start to the season, and for the most part, the majority of the roster responded with a solid start, with the exception of Rich Hill.
The final straw came on a Friday night in St. Louis when Hill walked in a run in the 1st inning after walking 4 of the 6 batters he faced in just 2/3 of an inning. Hill was sent down the next day in favor of Sean Gallagher.
Hill was effective in his first start at Iowa (2 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings with 5 strikeouts, a walk and a home run) and picked up a win on a Sunday in the first game of a twin bill between the I-Cubs and Portland Beavers. Hill allowed only 3 hits in 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball. struck out 8 but walked 4 more batters. In 25 1/3 innings (6 starts) at Iowa, Hill has given up 19 hits, struck out 31 and walked 24.
It would be easy to dismiss Rich Hill as another failed prospect or a AAAA pitcher, but the Cubs, and especially Lou Piniella, see more than that in him.
Rich Hill began making waves in the Cubs system back in 2004. Hill and his tremendous 12-6 curveball put up solid numbers in the Florida State League (7-6 with a 4.03 ERA in 28 games, 19 starts, with 136 strikeouts and 72 walks in 109 1/3 innings with a 1.46 WHIP) and showed more improvement in three different stops in 2005 (11-4 with a 3.31 ERA in 21 starts, 22 games, with 194 strikeouts and 35 walks in 130 2/3 innings for Peoria, West Tenn and Iowa). Hill made his less than stellar big league debut on June 15, 2005 in an inning of relief against the Marlins at Wrigley. Hill gave up 2 runs on 3 hits with 2 strikeouts.
Hill made his first Major League start on July 25th against the Giants and was effective in 5 innings of work. He allowed 2 runs on 5 hits with 5 strikeouts and 2 walks in a 3-2 Cubs' win and followed up with a good start against the Diamondbacks on July 30th. Hill spent September of 2005 watching from the pen (0-0 in 2 games, allowed 4 runs on a hit with 4 walks and no strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings) and started 2006 back in Iowa.
Hill once again put up big numbers in Triple-A and was given the uncreative title of a '4-A Pitcher'. Hill was recalled on May 1st to take Glendon Rusch's spot in the rotation and made his first start on May 4th in Arizona. Hill did not show any improvement and was shelled in his first 4 outings (0-4 with a 9.31 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP with 11 strikeouts and 15 walks in 19 1/3 innings).
After a loss on the South Side against the Sox on May 20th (7 runs on 5 hits in 4 innings with 5 walks and 2 strikeouts), he made comments that were not too well received following The Barrett-Pierzynski Game and was once again sent back down to Triple-A.
Hill's numbers remained impressive at Iowa (7-1 in 15 starts with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP with 135 strikeouts and 21 walks in 100 innings) and was once again recalled on July 27th. Hill turned in a decent start on the same day against the Cardinals at Wrigley. He allowed 4 runs on 6 hits in 3 1/3 innings but showed more confidence and poise than in his previous outings. The Cubs won the game and Hill earned another start.
On August 1, 2006, Hill appeared to put it all together. He turned in a tremendous start against the Diamondbacks at Wrigley and allowed on 3 runs on 6 hits in 8 innings with 6 strikeouts and 1 walk. The Cubs won the game 9-3 and Hill earned his first big league victory. He followed up his start against Arizona with a 7 inning, 9-strikeout performance against the Pirates.
Hill excelled as a starter for the remainder of the lost season (6-3 in 12 starts, 13 games, with a 2.93 and a 1.05 WHIP with 79 strikeouts and 24 walks in 80 innings) and gave the Cubs' brass, as well as the Faithful, reasons to believe he would fulfill his promise.
Hill was solid in the spring of 2007, did not walk a batter and earned a spot in Lou Piniella's rotation. He started off last season like he pitched in Arizona (3-1 in 5 starts with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP with 29 strikeouts and 11 walks in 35 2/3 innings) and had many suggesting he would soon replace the struggling Carlos Zambrano as the Cubs' number one pitcher. But something changed on May 22nd against Greg Maddux and the Padres in San Diego....and he has not been the same since.
Hill posted consecutive losses to Mets and Phillies in the horrible East Coast swing last May. The entire team did not play well, just not Rich Hill. But despite his struggles he was still 4-3 with a 2.91 ERA entering his start against the Padres. Hill struck out 8 batters on that Tuesday night and gave up just 6 hits but 4 of them were home runs....two each by Mike Cameron and Adrian Gonzalez. Hill's numbers steadily declined throughout June and was rocked again by the Padres at Wrigley on June 17th.
Hill gave up 3 more home runs, two more to Mike Cameron and another one to Adrian Gonzalez. He left after the 3rd inning of an 11-3 Cubs' loss to....Greg Maddux.
Hill received little to no run support for the remainder of the season but never seemed to pitch the same as he did since his start on August 1st of 2006. The confidence was gone and so was his consistency. One start would be great, the next horrible....and so on. Hill still finished the year with an 11-8 record, an ERA under four at 3.92 with a 1.19 WHIP to go along with a great strikeout to walk ratio....183 strikeouts to just 63 walks in 195 innings.
Hill was greeted by Chris Young with a home run to start the third game of the NLDS and managed to complete only 3 innings of work in what would be the last game of the year for the Cubs.
Once again this spring Hill struggled with his command and did not make much improvement when the regular season started. In 19 2/3 innings he walked 18 batters to just 15 strikeouts. His win-loss record did not punch his ticket back to Iowa, his strikeout to walk ratio and average innings per start did (just under 4 innings).
Many have suggested Rich Hill's biggest problem is that he thinks too much on the mound....instead of just pitching. While Hill's inconsistency proves that point, could Hill's success in the minors be his downfall in the majors?
Hill put up tremendous strikeout numbers in a short time. He sat down 626 batters in only 451 2/3 innings while walking only 210 batters in 4 1/2 seasons in the minors. He dominated those hitters and, his inconsistency proves, he is trying to do the same in the majors. Hill appears to be trying to throw the perfect pitch every time he takes the mound and has yet to figure out, in his own head, that he cannot be perfect every time out.
Big league hitters are going to get their hits, it is up to big league pitchers to limit the damage and pick up the win. Once Rich Hill realizes a successful pitcher does not have to be a strikeout pitcher, like Greg Maddux did a long time ago, he will be a winning pitcher for many years in the Major Leagues.... and those numbers he appears to be striving for will come as well. But until that day comes, he will continue to frustrate himself, his coaches and his team.
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That's why you don't f*** with a kid's mechanics..
Amen. I've said it a million times: so what if he can't keep baserunners from moving...if he's not allowing them on in the first place it isn't that big of a deal! That game where they announced Larry worked with him to change his delivery was the downfall of Rich Hill. If I'm Rich, I'm unlearning all of that right now. Larry's method failed, and if he can allow only two or three baserunners a game, they can try and steal all they like, because Hill is doing his job.
Greg Maddux did pretty well not being able to keep baserunners at bay. I rememeber when they announced that Larry ruined him. I mean changed his mechanics.
Let the firings and speculation begin. Peter Bavasi, the Mariners GM is out, and the ownership says every possibility for player and leadership changes is on the table. Bedard is likely on the market, and spent guys like Sexson whose contracts are outlasting their skills could be released.
The Mets have fired Willie Randolph and some of his staff. Jerry Manuel, ex W-Soxer, moves up from bench coach to interim manager. I don't see them trading anyone of immediate interest to the Cubs. It looks as though their old guys like Wagoner, Delgado and Alou didn't have another good year in them.
I do think we are showcasing guys like EPat, Murton, Ascaino and even Hoffpauir, Gallagher and Cedeno. A couple of those players and a couple of lower level prospects may get us a solid #2 pitcher before long.
A thorough review of Rich Hill, Neil. My take is that he has a confidence/trust and/or mind's eye problem. In baseball and golf and sports generally, effective performers are able to put their thoughts of mechanics behind them, envision or see the pitch, the at bat or the shot and throw the ball, swing the bat or hit the golf ball with success. Hill doesn't appear to trust his pitches to go where they're supposed to go. If it isn't trust, he may not transmit vision to action very well. Neither he nor Marshall have been outstanding at Iowa.
I am not a pitching coach but my view is that Hill's delivery is just to big and long as his head almost tilts straight up to the sky on the back swing. That's why he is so inconsistent and that's why he cannot keep runner's close. IMO it is a serious deficiency not easily corrected and I think the Cubs missed a great opportunity to trade him over the winter.
Trade him? Hindsight is always 20-20. I think Hendry would have been flamed for that, justly so. Who could foresee Hill falling apart so badly?
We are fortunate that Dempster has emerged as a legit starter. I thought that experiment would fail, and I was dead wrong.
Going into the season I was figuring Hill would have a very solid year. I thought maybe he could "figure it out" as they say in terms of the mental aspect of pitching because he has always been sort of a baby, or at least it seems so watching him. He has failed right the ship and I think a big part of it is the fact that he is basically a 2 pitch starter who relies heavily on both pitches to have a successful outing he may never really come out of it because mentally he's a Sally. I do agree with JW, being a pitcher in college and having a tremendous pitching coach teach me the ins and outs of breaking down mechanics, what he does is generally bad practice. The term is called "pitching up hill". With a delivery like that he will fight against himself and have a very weak front side. Another pitcher on the staff does this as well, Ted Lilly, but not to the extreme of Hill. I have seen it mainly in lefties who throw straight over the top or have a big 12-6 or sweeping CB. It doesn't make you throw harder or get more bite on breaking balls, though it may be the thought because you are tilting back the shoulders, then coming back down. It creates lack of balance and consistency and makes it hard to be quick to the plate as well. I said this last season to a friend of mine and he was like well, he's pretty effective doing this, and I agreed, but stated that because of his qwirky mechanics if any problems did arise it would be difficult to fix. Look at D. Willis, his mechanics are a disaster and so is he. I hope he can be cleaned up and still be a part of the Cubs organization, I just don't see it happening this season. Also, the mechanical change involving holding runners is a poor excuse to blame as well. He is just as wild in the wind-up as the stretch. Besides, if he didn't throw up hill, the leg kick wouldn't need to be so long. He will figure it out, but he needs to stop throwing "up hill" mentally as well.
I just got a Rich Hill rookie card.
I hope he makes it worth something.