As discussed in previous articles over the last few weeks, many of the experts think the Cubs will add a starting pitcher before the non-waiver trade deadline on July 31st. Several names have surfaced since the first of the month, and usually it is the player that no one knows about that ends up being involved in a trade.
By now many have begin to dream about a Cubs' rotation that includes C.C. Sabathia. But Buster Olney thinks if the Indians do put their ace on the block then the Brewers would have the trading chips in their farm system needed to land the Cy Young Award winner and not the Cubs....although Olney does feel the Cubs would be right behind the Brewers in their attempts to land Sabathia.
During Dave Kaplan's show on Friday night, in between reveling in the walk-off win and discussing Carlos Zambrano's injury with Todd Hollandsworth, the host of Sports Central on WGN casually mentioned the Cubs' interest in Rich Harden.
A week ago Peter Gammons reported the Indians' GM Mark Shapiro was "collecting due diligence should he decide that trading C.C. Sabathia will bring him more than two draft choices." According to Gammons, the Indians are "in the process of thoroughly scouting eight organizations, from the Yankees to the Red Sox to the Cubs to the Dodgers." As Gammons touted the accomplishments of Sabathia and stated the Cubs probably do not have enough in their farm system to pry Sabathia from the Indians, the Hall of Famer repeatedly brought up the name of Rich Harden.
Here is how good Rich Harden has been this season, when healthy....
- 4-0 in 10 starts with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP
- 72 strikeouts and 25 walks in 59 innings
- 45 hits and 5 home runs allowed in 59 innings
- Allows just a run more on the road (3.24 ERA) than at home (2.13 ERA)
- Similar WHIP on the road (1.20) as at home (1.18)
- Held right-handers to a .179 average with 4 home runs
- Held left-handers to a .245 average with 1 home run
- 7 quality starts in 10 opportunities
Harden's talent has never been a question. The doubts that have surrounded Harden have always been about his health. After all, Harden has never stayed healthy....his 10 starts this year is the most since 2005.
- Three straight years with two trips to the DL in each season
- Six trips to the DL in 5 seasons in the big leagues
- 2007 - Two stints to the DL, made only 7 starts - Strained Right Shoulder
- 2006 - Two stints on the DL, made only 9 starts - Muscle Strain in Back and a Sprained Ligament in his Right Elbow
- 2005 - Two Stints on the DL, made 19 starts and appeared in 22 games - Strained left oblique and a Right Lat Strain
- 2004 - 11-7 in 31 starts with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP with 167 strikeouts and 81 walks in 189 2/3 innings....all career highs
Harden's Numbers Against the Central
- Reds - 1-0 in 1 start with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP (5 runs, 4 earned, on 6 hits in 5 1/3 innings with 8 strikeouts and 3 walks)
- Cardinals - 0-1 in 1 start with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP (3 runs on 6 hits in 6 1/3 innings with 7 strikeouts and 2 walks)
Harden has not faced the Brewers, Pirates and Astros in his career and has never pitched at Wrigley Field.
Gammons reported that he was told, "Billy Beane has the single most important piece to trade to win the Word Series. But the questions is, how many songs do you let Slowhand play before a string breaks." Gammons called Harden "the most dominant pitcher in the American League right now."
Harden signed a 4-year, $9 million dollar contract back in 2005 with a club option for 2009 worth $7 million....Harden's 2008 salary, $4.5 million. Harden would be more than bargain for any team that trades for him, but would equally be as big a risk.
The A's, for their part of this equation, are just 5 games back of the Angels in the AL West and 3 1/2 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays for the AL Wild Card. Oakland is actually in better position to make the post-season than the Indians, but are in a seemingly stronger division with the front-running Angels and the Josh Hamilton led Texas Rangers. Many think the Rays will stick around all year, the Yankees can never be counted out and the Tigers have been playing much better of late....then there are the Minnesota Twins. So would Billy Beane be willing to part with a vital part of this year's club in order to prepare for the future?
Beane would probably be looking for a package similar to the one he received from the Cardinals for Mark Mulder back in December of 2004. The Cardinals sent Daric Barton, Kiko Calero and Dan Haren west for Mulder....a trade that paid, and continues to pay, dividends for the A's. Beane then turned around and sent Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks, along with Connor Robertson, this past winter for Bret Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez and Chris Carter.
Do the Cubs have enough to offer Billy Beane for Rich Harden? And if so, would he be worth the risk? Haven't the Cubs gone down this road before? Jim Hendry and Billy Beane have worked together before, in fact two deals in each of the past two seasons, so there is a history between the GMs.
An incorrect Internet rumor surfaced last week concerning the Cubs possible interest in Randy Winn of the Giants. A report in the San Francisco Chronicle stated Gary Hughes attended the Giants-A's games over the weekend. Henry Schulman brought up Winn's name but stated the Cubs had not phoned the Giants about the outfielder. While Hughes is "based in the Bay Area" as the report pointed out, Rich Harden did start the middle game of the series on Saturday.
With Harden's injury history, Beane's asking price cannot be too high....but it is Billy Beane. And if the Cubs are interested in trading for a potential difference maker, it will cost them an arm, a leg and several top prospects.
Subscribe
Harden seems like a really big risk. Hastn't made more than 10 starts since 05. Has never come close to 200 innings. He has great talent but seems destined for the bullpen.
But would he be OK for a rental????
As long as he stays healthy for 4 months.
I know I would rather not have a rental are we going to be able to keep this payroll next year anyway.
Harden is a risk...but if you can get him to pitch for you on a mound, he makes Zambrano look pedestrian. 94-98 mph 4-seamer with good ride and command, devastating 86-88 mph split, good slider...
maybe we should trade lou piniella for randy winn just like the mariners did.haha
A healthy Hardin would be a great asset for several years. If Thomas, Castillo and Veal would get us Hardin and a mid-level prospect, I'd do it. The contract risk is manageable ($4.5 m in '08 and $7.0 m in '09. The other pitchers we've been talking about are still on my list too. And I would add Cain from the Giants (again)--who now probably ranks behind Lincecum and Sanchez. I do think that Hoffpauir and EPat as infielders + a prospect or two for Cain and a minor league lefty prospect has a chance.
Why don't we have multiple pitching prospects like these Giants lefties (and 2 righties) in our system?
BB/SO
AAA Geno Espineli (lrp) 1.74, 41IP, 31H, 6/33
HiA Ben Snyder (lsp) 2.00, 86, 79 18/73
Jess English (lsp) 2.45, 73, 61 23/75
LoA M. Baumgardner (lsp)1.77, 71, 58 11/84
A. DeLa Garza (lsp) 3.42, 47, 43 8/51
Baumgardner joins fellow top 10 prospects, righties Alderson and Pucetas. They are at(HiA San Jose) in what must be the best 4 starters on 1 team anywhere in the minors.
While I want most to get help for this year, I would look hard at trading a Hoffpauir or EPat for two of relievers Espineli or the recently called up Hinshaw, Snyder and English (both around 8-3). In essence, the Cubs get a useful lefty reliever for now and a lefty starter for two years from now.
I like mondays much better when we play. Anyway...just wanted to let you guys know I'M EXCITED! and where is the PODcast?
Agustin,
I like Mondays much better when we play also. Tell me, are you excited?
I like Harden more than I like Burnett, however, Harden will take a lot to pry him away from Beane, and with his injury history, is probably not a good match.
I'm more intrigued by relievers, specifically John Grabow of the Pirates, who is rumored to be available, along with Marte. I'd really like to make a run at him if possible, as I've been impressed with him when I've seen him. I know his stats aren't all that great, but he's playing for the Pirates, so give him a break.
I'm a little concerned about who we'd have to give up to get these guys though like Sabathia, Harden, Burnett, or Grabow....
I mean, consider the fact that Roberts would've taken Veal, Gallagher, and Cedeno at the very least. Roberts isn't even good...and never was that great, and yet those are practically the best in our system that we could part with, and even that was turned down....THANKFULLY. Imagine life without Gallagher and Cedeno?
I'd hate to hear what it'd take to get a 2 month rental like Sabathia....you'd hope that the Indians would take that into consideration, but it's HIGHLY unlikely, considering that they won't let teams negotiate with him beforehand. What that tells you is they know something that's not being said----that Sabathia and his agents have probably told them they will test the FA market. They want to fleece someone of top prospects, all the while knowing that they stand just as good of a chance to re-sign him after the season as the team they're trading him to. I guess if we traded the farm for him, and ended up losing him (highly probable given the team's sale situation), we'd get two high draft picks to compensate for our prospects.
Let's see who it'd take though to get him, Burnett, or Harden:
1) I bet it'd take at LEAST two top pitching prospects----probably Veal AND either Samardzija or Gallagher, or possibly Ceda which is too much in my opinion
2) At least one or two IF prospects/young guys---probably Cedeno or Patterson
3) At least one OF prospect----probably Hoffpauir, Murton, but I highly doubt anyone would take Colvin---he is TERRIBLE!!!
I would NEVER part with Gallagher or Hoffpauir. Considering Hoffpauir should replace Ward next year and fill in at 1B and OF, and does nothing but rake at the plate, and we have NO other prospect doing that as of now, I'd say you'd have to keep him even though he's like 27. Gallagher is also by far the best pitcher we have to come out of our system, so I don't think you can part with him.
You really have to weigh things....Sure, Sabathia would be nice to have, but if you can't guarantee that you'll have him beyond this year, his value diminishes significantly. Harden and Burnett have bad injury histories, so why would you risk the farm on them? Pitching-wise, I think we undervalue our system, which has produced the likes of Maddux (long ago), Wood, Prior, Juan Cruz (still effective reliever), Zambrano, Wuertz, Farnsworth, Scott Downs, Petrick, Pignatiello, Marmol, Marshall, Gallagher, Hill, Hart, etc.---I'm sure there's more ex-Cub major league pitchers I'm leaving out, but that's a tremendous mix of talent there, and obviously, it's one of the things this organization does very very well, unlike many others----which is developing pitching talent.
Our top three: Gallagher, Veal, and Samardzija is probably way under-rated across the league, but could probably top any other team's top three pitching prospects...throw in Ceda, and we have even more talent. My point is that you really have to weigh the pros and cons of doing such a move, and given what I just illustrated with the two month rental deal and injury risk deals, I'm not quite sure you'd want to give up that talent, and here's why....
if you got Sabathia, are you telling me that after you most likely lose him, that those top two picks you get could measure up to losing a Veal, Samardzija, Ceda, or Gallagher? HELL NO!!! That's because, as we've discussed on here before, the draft is very much a crapshoot, and nothing is a guarantee or even close to it.
If it's true that the Indians will not grant a window to extend him, I'd much rather give Veal or Samardzija a shot. As we've seen before, teams that haven't seen young pitchers before often struggle big time initially, and if that pitcher is the real deal, they'll continue to struggle in the future against him. Maybe it'd be worth it to give one of them a shot if a bigger deal falls through, don't you think?
Two starts into Harden's Cubs career, I'd say the risk was worth it. Now somebody please help the hitters find their stroke again.