The Cubs will enter play on Tuesday night against the Braves with the best record in baseball. The team is playing well in a surprisingly strong NL Central but most, including Lou Piniella, feels the team on the North Side needs to add a staring pitcher in order to keep up the pace. Several reports have indicated Jim Hendry is looking to add an arm to the rotation. Peter Gammons mentioned on Sunday night the names of Gil Meche, Randy Wolf and A.J. Burnett. While some, including Ken Rosenthal, have dreams of a Cubs' starting five that would include C.C. Sabathia.
The Cubs found themselves in a similar situation back in June of 1984. Jim Frey had a good team but was missing an arm in his rotation. The Cubs were in first place with a 33-25 record....1 1/2 games ahead of the Mets and 3 ahead of the Cardinals in the NL Eastern Division. General Manager Dallas Green pulled the trigger on a deal that took the Cubs all the way to the post season for the first time since 1945. On June 13th, the Cubs acquired Ron Hassey, George Frazier, Darryl Banks and Rick Sutcliffe from the Cleveland Indians for Joe Carter, Mel Hall and Don Schulze.
The Cubs went on a roll, Sutcliffe finished 16-1, won the Cy Young Award and the Cubs won the division with a 96-65 record, 6 1/2 games in front of the New York Mets.
So could Jim Hendry work a deal to propel his team the way Dallas Green did?
Rich Hill
The Rich Hill enigma has set all of this in motion. Lou Piniella penciled in Hill at the beginning of the season for around 200 innings. For reasons unknown, Hill struggled with his command and himself and is down in Iowa trying to sort things out. The easy fix to finding a starting pitcher would be to promote from within. But with Hill's mental makeup, at this point, he would likely add another fourth starter to a rotation in need of a more reliable presence by Carlos Zambrano.
Ryan Dempster
The Cubs former closer has pitched extremely well this season and with the inconsistency that is Ted Lilly, Dempster has become the team's number two starter behind Big Z. The concern with Dempster is the amount of innings he has logged and the fact he has not pitched more than 120 innings since 2002. Dempster tossed 66 2/3 last season out of the pen and has already thrown 80 2/3 this year. The last time he pitched 200 innings was in 2001 with the Marlins. Dempster has pitched good enough to make an All-Star roster but the question is not his heart, desire or ability....but his durability.
Ted Lilly
Ted Lilly has been very good, adequate and down right horrible this season. Lilly has the ability to be a solid number two but likely is better slotted as a three in a playoff caliber rotation. Lilly's velocity has been very inconsistent this year and he is leaving too many balls up and the result is 13 home runs allowed in 13 starts, 72 1/3 innings....Lilly served up only 28 long balls last year in 34 starts, 207 innings. Lilly was the benefactor, along with Jason Marquis, of the wind blowing in on several of his outings at Wrigley last season and more figures to leave the park as the season wears on.
Lilly behind Dempster or vice versa would give Piniella a solid rotation 1-4 with Jason Marquis moved down to the fifth spot and Sean Gallagher becoming another insurance policy out of the pen or down in Iowa.
The Rumored Names
A.J. Burnett
The Cubs were rumored to be interested in the former Florida Marlin in the off-season. Burnett comes with a long history of injury and Scott Boras but when he wants to, is capable of dominating a game on the mound. Burnett is 5-6 in 13 starts, 14 games, for the Blue Jays this season with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Burnett throws strikes to the rate of more than a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio (78 strikeouts and 38 walks in 81 1/3 innings).
Burnett has struggled at the Rogers Centre this season and left to a chorus of boos on Saturday after his worst start of the year. Burnett waived his cap to the crowd after he was pulled from the game and apologized for his actions following the Blue Jays loss to the Orioles. Burnett has a limited no trade clause and can block a deal to 15 clubs. But his struggles at home (2-3 in 5 starts, 6 games, with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.15 WHIP. On the road, 3-3 in 8 starts with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP) might motivate Burnett to seek a change of scenery.
Burnett can opt out of his contract at the end of the season (5-year, $55 million dollar contract with the Blue Jays in December of 2005. Owed $12 million in 2009 and 2010) and with Scott Boras representing him, that move is all but guaranteed. The short-term rental has a lot of upsides....and equally as many reasons not to pull a trigger on a deal.
With the exception of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett is the only other rumored name that would give the Cubs' rotation a boost. The Cubs will get a first hand look at Burnett on Friday, June13th when the Cubs open a 3-game series against the Blue Jays in Toronto.
Against the Central
- Reds - 1-3 in 6 games with a 6.89 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. At Great American, no career games
- Astros - 2-5 in 7 games with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. At Minute Maid Park, 0-2 in 2 starts with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP.
- Pirates - 1-1 in 3 games with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.26 WHP. At PNC Park, 1-1 in 3 starts with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP
- Cardinals - 4-3 in 8 games with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. At Busch Stadium, no starts at the new Busch Stadium
- Brewers - 1-1 in 2 games with a 6.92 ERA. At Miller Park, 1-1 in 2 starts with a 6.92 ERA
At Wrigley, 2-0 in 3 starts with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP....2 home runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings.
Randy Wolf
Wolf has been a bright spot for a Padres' staff that has been decimated by injuries. After the weekend sweep of the Mets, the Friars are only 6 1/2 back of the Diamondbacks with a record of 28-37. If the Padres get Jake Peavy and Chris Young back, they might have a chance in the weak NL West....which likely means they will hang onto Randy Wolf.
Wolf's contract and Jim Hendry's history with Kevin Towers makes this a strong possibility. Towers will likely not want much in return (low A prospect, think Jose Ceda for Todd Walker) and the 1-year deal Wolf signed for $4.75 million will not put the new ownership on the hook for next season and beyond.
The addition of Randy Wolf would not give the rotation the solid number two starter it needs. Wolf is 3-1 in 6 starts at PETCO with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP....and on the road, 1-3 in 7 starts with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. In 7 career starts at Wrigley, 1-4 with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. Wolf has allowed 8 home runs in 40 1/3 innings.
Gil Meche
The Cubs were reportedly on the verge of inking Gil Meche in December of 2006 before the Royals swooped in and outbid them. Jim Hendry signed Ted Lilly with the same money and the Royals over paid for one of Piniella's former starters (5 years, $55 million through 2011). With the pending sale of the team, the likelihood of this trade happening is very slim at best. Meche was a victim of a bad team last season (9-13 in 34 starts with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP) but has been a huge disappointment for Trey Hillman this year (3-8 in 13 games with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP) while opponents have hit 11 home runs in 76 1/3 innings with a .278 batting average.
Meche would not be an upgrade over Ryan Dempster or Ted Lilly.
C.C. Sabathia
The name that has the Faithful drooling....a top two of Carlos Zambrano and C.C. Sabathia would give the Cubs arguably the best rotation in the National League. The Indians are not hitting, their bullpen is horrible and they are 6 games under .500 and 8 1/2 games back of the front running White Sox. If the Indians do decide to call it a season and trade the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner it will cost someone a ton of talent. Sabathia does not figure to resign with the Indians and will become a free agent at the end of the year....many have speculated his contract could surpass the extension signed by Johan Santana.
Sabathia started the season on a bad note. Some thought he was injured and other speculated the pressure of pitching for a contract was getting the best of him. Sabathia was 1-4 in 5 starts in April with a 7.76 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP but bounced back nicely in May with a 2-3 record in 6 starts with 2 complete games, a 2.44 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with nearly a 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio (41 strikeouts and 8 walks). The encouraging stat is his home-road splits....at the park formerly known as the Jake, 2-4 in 8 starts with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, on the road 1-4 in 5 starts with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.
Against the Central
- Reds - 2-0 in 7 starts with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP
- Pirates - 2-0 in 3 starts with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP
- Cardinals - 1-0 in 2 starts with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP
- Brewers - 1-1 in 2 starts with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP
Sabathia has never pitched at Wrigley or faced the Astros.
Jerry Crasnick was asked about the possibility of the Cubs acquiring Sabathia during a live chat Monday on ESPN.com. Crasnick said he could see the Cubs making a big run at Sabathia. Crasnick speculated Mark Shapiro would likely ask for Josh Vitters, Tyler Colvin, Jose Ceda and Jeff Samardzija (Crasnick was probably unaware that the Shark is on the Cubs 40-man roster and has a no-trade clause) and Jim Hendry would likely offer him Matt Murton and Ronny Cedeno...."and maybe they can meet in the middle."
If the Cubs make the move for Sabathia it will cost them a big part of their future, but a future that Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry will likely not be around to see. If Sabathia was to sign elsewhere in the off-season, at least the Cubs would receive a couple of draft picks in compensation.
The move would be very costly, but possibly one that ends the draught the mainstream media likes to talk about every time they possibly can....
Aaron Cook
Another pitcher that could be a good addition to Piniella's staff is Aaron Cook. The Cubs have not been connected to Cook by the mainstream media and this is just pure speculation. Jayson Stark mentioned last week that the Rockies (24-39, 9 1/2 back of the Diamondbacks) might look to move Aaron Cook, along with Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes before the deadline. The Yankees are rumored to be very interested in adding Fuentes to their pen.
Aaron Cook, like Gil Meche, is owed a lot of money which probably makes this a remote possibility at best. Cook signed a 4-year, $34.5 million dollar contract back in December with a clause that adds a $1 million dollars to each year if he his dealt ($8.75 million in 2009, $9 million in 2010, $9.25 million in 2011 and a mutual option in 2012 worth $11 million with a $500,000 buyout).
Cook is 8-3 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP for a team with only 24 wins. He is 3-1 in 5 starts at Coors Field with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP....on the road, 5-2 in 8 starts with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Cook's worst start of the year was at Wrigley (7 runs on 10 hits in 6 1/3 innings) but in 13 games this year, he has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 10 of the 13.
Against the Central Since 2005
- Reds - 1-0 in 2 games with a 4.38 ERA
- Astros - 2-0 in 4 games with a 2.96 ERA
- Pirates - 0-1 in 2 games with a 5.84 ERA
- Cardinals - 0-3 in 3 games with a 4.79 ERA
- Brewers - 2-1 in 4 games with a 2.77 ERA
The Rockies are a very talented young team and with the fact Todd Helton is going to anchor 1st base for the foreseeable future that removes a good trading chip away from Jim Hendry. The Rockies pitching staff is in disarray and Cook gives them a solid piece to build on....but if they do shop him, the Cubs would be wise to see what it would take to add him to the roster.
The Cubs do not appear content with their current roster and if the rumors are correct, Jim Hendry is trying to add to a team that already owns the best record in baseball. What a difference a couple of years makes....looking to tweak a solid team is a far cry from the days the 25-man roster included as many middle infielders as relievers.
Subscribe
Luckily Gil Meche is owed alot of money long term, which will likely prevent the Cubs from picking him up. He is the worst idea of the bunch. Not only would he not be an upgrade over Dempster or Lilly, I dont think he's an upgrade over Marquis either. Or over Ronny Woo Woo for that matter. He's horrible!
We do need to get someone to be the solid number two guy. Sabathia looks to be the hands down choice. With the Chi Sox playing well again, it can only help to bury Cleveland and expedite a potential move. Maybe another Chicago-Cleveland June blockbuster trade is what the Cubs need, just as in '84 as mentioned above.
We need to get the 13th pitcher off our roster and carry an extra stick. Looking forward to the AL games just for that reason. We need Hoff-Power to be able to rest Lee, and also the corner outfielders. Hopefully they have him playing plenty of RF in Iowa. (Although it won't prepare him for the sun in Wrigley).
One good thing about the starters not going too deep is that although they have taxed out bullpen a little bit, they should be fresh for the summer heat and a hopeful pennant run.
Jim Hendry.....hopefully you have an unlimited minutes plan on your cell....that phone should be burning your ear off right about now!
One other pitcher that I still insist should be considered is recently designated Sidney Ponson from the Rangers. Here is a link to an article from an Astros writer dicussing the players wanting to make a run for Ponson.
http://blogs.chron.com/baseballblog/archives/2008/06/should_astros_g.html
Two very interesting points in the article. It is mentioned just as I did that the Latino players could be a huge influence on him. I think Soriano and Zambrano would take care of him, expecially with Big Z being a fellow starting pitcher.
The other point, and I believe it is key is that SOMEBODY is going to give him a shot, so why not make it the Cubs? If it works, great. If it doesn't they waste a few thousand dollars while continuing to shop around. Would you rather have him coming back to haunt us? Behavior aside, he does have talent.
I say absolutely NO WAY to Sidney Ponson. He is an absolute club house cancer, the last thing this team needs.
He was 4-1 with a 3.88 ERA in Texas, but yet Texas still released him. Not someone I want to see on this team. Why ruin the good chemistry this team has with someone like that.
I'd rather have Freddy Garcia, Eric Milton, Russ Ortiz or John Patterson. And I don't want them either.
Could anyone who watches a lot of Iowa games give any insight on Randy Wells? I see he is off to a very good start at 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA and hitters are only hitting .204 against him. Could he be an option later on this year?
Joe S: Could not agree more on Meche. Of this list, I think Beckett, Sabathia, Wolf, or nobody. And that assumes Wolf is cheap. Sabathia will NOT be. I think Beckett is the best choice of those. PONSON is not a bad idea, but for a pitching starved team like Texas to release him, he must REALLY be a douchebag, so we should leave that one alone.
NICK: I posted the exact same question to Bob Sacamento, a Cubs blogger who does follow the minors closely. Wells is definitely on the radar. Toronto tried to keep him this spring, but just didn't have room, and with the Jay's pitching depth that doesn't look like an insult. The Cubs are stretching him out to be another starting candidate. He has ML-stuff, not great, but OK, and is getting good results. Plus, he is an Illinois Native (probably grew up a Cards fan though). Look for Randy Wells at Wrigley before the year is out, maybe even the month.
PS, Let's keep in mind we have alot of lower-rotation candidates. We have plenty of 4th or 5th starter types, depth is NOT a problem. It's that #2 slot.
Look at all our internal options:
Leiber
Marshall
Hill
Randy Wells
Hart
...we should be able to keep reliable arms in the rotation with that list, even with injuries, ineffectiveness, etc. That is GREAT depth.
The problem is NONE of those are really top of the rotation guys. They are just guys. Getting another "guy" does nothing for us. Gil Meche is a "guy". Randy Wolf is pretty close to that. They would help the Yankees right now, but not the Cubs.
Steve Stone said on the score yesterday that he expects Jim Hendry to trade for Sabathia before the trade deadline. I hope he is right.
ZAMBRANO
C.C SABATHIA
DEMPSTER
MARQUIS
GALLAGHER
Thanks Keith.
Roland I hope he is right as well. A 1-2 punch of Biz Z and Big S, with Dempster, Lilly, Marquis or Gallagher, that is a scary, scary rotation.
C.C. Sabathia would look really good in Cubbie Blue
Zambrano
Sabathia
Dempster
Lilly
Gallagher/ Hart
IMO, Sabathia would be a serious mistake. Last 2 starts: 0-2, 17H, 14IN. He would cost us guys like Vitters and Ceda +,+,+. We'd either cough up $15 to $18 mil for 5 or 6 years or lose the big tub of goo--who, admittedly, has had some fine stretches of pitching.
I put a lot of emphasis on what mid-year acquisitions are doing now. Otherwise they are not likely to be Red Barons, Gray Barons or Cisco Kids. Based on that, strong cases can be made for Wolf and Lowe (each giving up only 6 runs in last 4 starts). Cook has given up 10 hits in 3 of his last 5 starts but is 8-3 3.16 for the year. He's also 29 and like Wolf (29) likely falls into the affordable, strong #3 category ala Lilly.
Burnett is a little flakey/scary--but can be very good. He's only 5-6 4.98 for the year; and, if he and Boras opt out of his 2 remaining years at $12 million, it may mean that he becomes a $14 mil, 5 year guy or we lose him. I wouldn't pay that price for Burnett--as I wouldn't pay the price for Sabathia. I say that giving considerable thought to wanting to win this year.
So, if we are willing to part with Vitters, Ceda and Cedeno, let's do what it takes to get The Cisco Kid, Jon Sanchez, the emerging, fine lefty from the rebuilding Giants. He is 25, has won his last 3 giving up 2 runs each game, is 5-3 3.70 for the year and strikes out about 1 an inning. P.S., like the young Sutcliffe when we acquired him, Cisco Sanchez also doubles as the Rican Baron and is related to Agustin. Jon's mother and Agustin's mother were mothers.
Looking at cost and likely prime time effectiveness, my second choice would be the Gray Baron, Lowe--if he is available and will move at age 35. He has given up 6 runs total in his last 4 games, is a ground ball pitcher, knows the league and has done well in prime time games.
JimK,
Sutcliffe was 4-5 with a 5.15 era when the Cubs traded for him.
I would like to see the Cubs get a strong upgrade on their #2 pitcher. I am concerned Demp won't be pitching at his current level at the end of the year. I hope he proves me wrong.
I understand your concern over CCs stats this year though.
The Red Baron came from Cleveland also.
It's only June 10th and the trade talks are all ready starting up! I have a feeling there will be 100 more discussions exactly like this one between now and July 31. Oh well, here's my opinion: we need a #2 starter so we can throw out Meche, Wolf, and the like. I don't see anyway Sanchez is on the market. Ideally, we would love to have Sabathia for the right price. One guy no one has mentioned yet is Bedard. I know Sabathia and Bedard haven't pitched their best this year but these guys are legit #1 and 2 starters and they didn't all of sudden wake up and forget how to pitch. I'm a firm believer in the law of averages and that these guys will bounce back. If anything it'll hopefully lower their trade value. Regardless, I don't see either of those trades happening. If we make a move my guess is it's for Burnett. Hasn't lived up to his billing mostly because of injuries, but has #2 stuff and would be relatively cheaper (as far as prospects go) than Sabathia or Bedard. He's a gamble, but they only one I see the Cubs making unless another name comes onto the radar.
I see the CC as a possibilty...remember the Juan Pierre trade? We can give them the farm and try to win this year because no way we sign Sebathia long term. But I don't know anything because I was crazy, screaming at JH to go after Zito and now look what happened.
JimK, sadly, Sanchez will not be available but he is worth the try. BTW his mother gave birth to him in the same hospital as my mother gave birth to me, at the same time, the same day; and the rumor says we got switched...so I am the one supposed to be in San Franscisco.
Short term...DLowe is the answer. Remember those games when he came in to close for Pedro? He has the guts for the big stage.
Sure, a number 2 starter would be grand, but I remember in 1984, which was an awesome year until we choked in San Diego BUT we gave up Mel Hall, and Joe Carter for Sutcliffe. I remember not liking that from the start. I was prpobaly wrong but Joe Carter got his WS ring in Toronto. Remember, we also got Eckersley and started him.
I just hope that we just don't give up on some great ball players and just to get a "named" pitcher. Sutcliffe helped us totally in 84 but that trade was good for both teams. I don't know if it'll go our way again. Hall and Carter were ball players. Hill, Murton, Marshall, Pie? We'll see!
For all of those in favor of acquiring Lowe from the Dodgers....keep in mind it's not likely as the Dodgers are in contention, and in that crappy division may stay in contention or take first place all season. They are not likely to dump, but rather add.
Bedard is not a likely choice as Seattle may choose to dump salary, but unlikely the Cubs will pick up the contract. And with his struggles, how much better is he than Rich Hill at this point?
Joe, I think Bedard is a lot better than Rich. He has had 3 bad outings and 8 quality starts. He gave up 9 and 6 runs in two starts thats why his era is not on the low 3's. He has been awful and yet not that bad. He would be a great guy...But like you I believe is very unlikely
Bedard's been mentioned before, makes only $7 mil on a 1 year contract but isn't a free agent until after next year. However, knowing that he will want out of the imploding Seattle (assuming he does) Seattle may well deal him.
Our discussion shows how tough it is find and get a top pitcher--via trade. Let's hope the Dodgers don't contend, and we have a shot at Lowe. And, if we don't get a true #2, a guy like Wolf would strengthen our staff. Some improvement is better than none.
And maybe Augustin is our answer. An intellignce sources say that, in fact he and Jon Sanchez were twins born to a poor family. His dad told his mother to pick the best looking one because the other one would have to be tossed into the river. Apparently Agustin learned to swim very young. Maybe he's a natural pitcher too, and just needs a few starts in Iowa to be ready.