Thanks Raul. I always look forward to your articles. Too bad this one wasn't very positive. I had no idea the "Shark" had fallen on such hard times. It sure seems like Colvin's been around forever but hasn't progressed much. It's still early though.

If our farm system is a chandelier, it looks like someone turned the dimmer switch pretty low over the last couple of weeks. EPat is back to .305 and James Russell, the promising lefty starter has moved up to AA. Guys like Murton, Hart and Torres are past the prospect stage, but they are performing well at AAA. Maybe Torres, a swith hitting CF batting .324 with a .420 OBP should get a chance if Edmonds can't find first gear.

Raul, Thanks for the post.

I, too, have been following the prospects fairly closely. Our system is pretty devoid of talent.

All of our so-called top prospects have been extreme busts thus far. Of Soto, Theriot, Fontenot, Marshall, Pignatiello, Hoffpauir, Marmol, Cedeno, Patterson, Pie, and Hart----all young guys called up within the last year or two, ONLY Patterson and Pie were once considered top prospects entering any given season.

All of the other guys weren't even on the radar until they were promoted, then sent down, and were on the next year's prospect list.

But, Patterson and Pie would appear to be busts, to go along with the likes of: Ryan Harvey, Ben Christensen, Colvin, Huseby, Pawelek, Haggerty, Choi, Guzman, Dopirak, Monanez, Brownlie, Leicester, DuBois, etc.

If you look at our major contributors as far as young guys---you'll see that it's the un-sung guys, and overlooked prospects that have contributed.

I don't think anyone thought Soto, Theriot, Fontenot, Marmol, Cedeno, or Marshall would've been contributing 3 years ago, and all, except for Marshall, had been in our system or in Fontenot's case, the Orioles system and our system, for quite a number of years without appearing on any prospect to watch list. In fact, Marshall was the only one of that group to be featured fairly quickly on any list.

If you took a poll of everyone on here, and they were honest....just looking at Soto, Theriot, Fontenot, Marmol, and Cedeno's stats from the minors, you'd probably never think they'd make a contribution.

Yet, nearly all of us thought the likes of Haggerty, Pie, Patterson, Harvey, Colvin, Samardzija, etc., would've made significant contributions.

Point is, it's a crapshoot, and if injuries hadn't occured, or ineffectiveness of veterans, NONE of the afforementioned young contributors would've been able to make it to the bigs.

I think there's something to say for just giving guys a chance to prove themselves, and if they don't, then ship them off for more prospects. Imagine what Patterson would've brought us before we gave up on him when his value was at its lowest? Imagine what we could've gotten for Pie? Ditto Hill, Marshall, etc. Guys like Pujols, AROD, a young Griffey Jr., are one in a million. Yet, if you look around, why have we never brought up one of our own power hitters.

Can you guys think of the last power hitter we actually developed on OUR own? Banks and Williams come to mind...possibly Santo.

Sandberg, Dawson, Sosa, Soriano, (all the other 1 year free agents like Burnitz, etc.), ARAM, Lee, ALL came from other organizations. Why is that? Williams and Banks came up nearly 40 years years ago. There is NOT a single team in the entire MLB that hasn't developed their own power hitters during that span. I think our scouting is abysmal when it comes to position talent.

To further illustrate my point, here are teams and power hitters they've developed in just the last 20+ years:

NL West:
D'Backs-Conor Jackson, Justin Upton
Rockies-Helton, Holliday, Hawpe, Tulo, Atkins
Dodgers-Karros, Piazza, Loney, Kemp
Padres-Greene, (brain fart, know there's more, but can't think right now)

NL Central:
Cubs-none
Cards-Duncan, Pujols
Astros-Berkman, Bagwell (okay, he started in Red Sox org., but never played in the bigs before being traded), and I'll throw in Biggio, because he averaged about 20 home runs
Pirates-ARAM, Bonds
Reds-Dunn, Kearns, Pena, Larkin, Votto, Encarnacion

NL East:
Nat's (formerly Expos): you could insert many names here, as they got rid of a lot of talent b/c they couldn't afford them, Dawson is the most prominent one
Phillies: Schmidt, Burrell, Howard, Utley, Rollins
Mets: Strawberry, Hernandez, Wright
Braves: C Jones, A Jones, Franceour, McCann, J Lopez, Klesko

And that's just the NL...I'm tired, and don't want to continue with the AL. But you get the point, right?

The point is, if you can't develop and trade talent at their peak (Patterson, Pie, etc.) for proven young talent (Cabrera, AROD-awhile ago, etc.), then you are going to have MAJOR problems, because then you're getting guys in their late twenties, and early 30's, and hoping they can continue the power they displayed in their youth from 23-29 years old...you might get a few years of power, but then you're in the decline. As I said before, guys like Pujols, AROD, etc., are one in a million, so chances you develop one with a piss poor scouting and development team like we have are pretty miniscule.

I mean, I believe one of the reasons we haven't developed a major power hitter in the last 30-40 years since Williams, Banks, and Santo, is that we have guys like Choi, Patterson, Harvey, DuBois, Dopirak, and Pie, put up decent power numbers in the minors, and automatically proclaim them as the next greatest power hitter we have, and it's just not feasible. Other teams develop them, and we need to trade for them before they make the bigs, or we'll continue to be devoid of that type of talent.

The main reason I bring all of this up is Lee and Soriano are 32, and ARAM is 30. Post steroids era, those power numbers are sure to decline into their mid to late thirties, and we need to consider that before we dump more money on a late 20's, early 30's slugger that's past his prime.

How about Rafiel Palmerio, Joe Carter, Shawon Dunston(If you include Biggio, I'm including Shawon).

But of course other than Shawon Dunston, they didn't play with us long.

I always enjoy reading your posts, Aaron. What the hell do you do for a living anyways? You always have the lengthiest and some of the most knowledgable posts...

Anyways, I agree with pretty much everything you said. I think Ryan Harvey was the last guy we drafted who was supposed to be the next big power hitter, and he strikes out more times than Adam Dunn, and walks less than Soriano. But honestly, I'm not looking for players that can hit the ball out of the ballpark. I'm looking for contact hitters who are patient at the plate, ie Fukudome. People might put up a stink that he's only hit 2 HR's thus far, but did anybody really expect him to hit 30HR's his first season in the bigs? I sure didn't. In fact, I expect him to put up Mark Grace-like numbers.

My point is, we don't NEED to develop power hitters. We've got some (and in my opinion, too many). What we need are guys who can draw a walk when they're down in the count 0-2. Basics. And I think that is the biggest fault with our minor league player development program. We are not teaching them any patience at the minor league level, so when they come to the bigs, they hack away at everything. I could have told you 2 years ago that Felix Pie was going to be a bust (hell, i've been saying it for that long!) because he has no plate discipline. Did everybody REALLY overlook the fact that his numbers were similar to Corey Patterson's? Or are we all so naive and desperately hopeful that maybe just this one time, something that looks like a duck, walks like a duck, talks like a duck, is a bull?

I hate to be the pessimistic poster here, but honestly, I don't see the Cubs maintaining this level of offense for the rest of the season. Everybody knows Soriano is the streakiest hitter alive, so how much he will contribute is a crapshoot. I love A-Ram, but he is not going to walk 100 times this year. The riot and his .400 obp should come down in the next few weeks, as should DeRosa. But regardless, I'm not worried about offense. No team should have to score 5.something runs a game to be able to win. What I'm worried about is the pitching staff. Did Dempster all of a sudden become a staff ace? As Harry Carey always said, "the law of averages will come into play." I hate to jinx him, but I seriously don't think he's going to win 20 games this year. That being said, I think the Cubs need to make an all-out run for a legitimate #2 starter, if not another staff ace. Shoot, empty out the farm system if we have to. The reason why, is cause i think the road to being world series champs is going through Boston again this year. They're pitching staff is flat out scary. I don't think we can hang with them, and we need to improve the starting 5. Marquis is a bum. Gallagher is a super-rookie, and Dempster is unproven. Oh yeah, and I forgot, Lilly sucked balls for us last year in the postseason. That leaves us with Zambrano. Hmm, I guess he could pitch everyday if we asked him to...

jerljr,

sorry man, but Dunston averaged 13 home runs...Just to give you an idea---Grace averaged 12 home runs, and while with the Cubs, and if you look at Raffy's early stats with us and the Rangers (before he started taking steroids, which was estimated to be around 1990-1991 and after when Pudge and Juan Gone joined the Rangers), he was on par with Grace-like stats. Joe Carter was only with us for 23 games unfortunately. As for Biggio, he hit more than 20 bombs in 8 or his 20 seasons.

thanks Elliot....I don't do anything really...I'm a trust fund baby....LOL, j/k....I actually type very fast, and have many pages open at once to back up what I say on here, so my posts go pretty quickly.

As for your comments, I absolutely 100% agree with you, and I've been saying this for several weeks, and got labeled by many as being too pessimistic, blah blah blah...

Fact is, Zambrano is the closest thing we have to an effective starter, and you're absolutely right about Theriot, and DeRosa, who rank at the top of our team in least pitches seen in at-bats....very soon, their luck will run out...Plus, haven't you noticed most of their hits are insignificant anyway?

So let's see our offense as it stands:
Soriano-is allergic to taking pitches, and too streaky
Edmonds-released by the worst team in the bigs. What does that say?
Fukodome-started out hot, but league is figuring him out now it seems
ARAM-will eventually pick it up
Theriot-more likely to regress to .325-.330 OBP
DeRosa-will fall to .275-.285 avg, and .335-.345 OBP
Lee-will pick it up again on par with previous seasons
Soto-will regress, but how far? we have no history to go off of, because he's so far ahead of his previous minor league stats

Our bench, outside of Hoffpauir is highly suspect. Cedeno, as we know is quite the enigma. Once Ward comes back, he'll be the only strong bench presence we have, with Hoffpauir likely the odd man out. Fontenot is highly suspect, and you know Blanco won't continue to hit like he has.

Our starting rotation is an absolute joke for a potential playoff-bound team.

I'm a lot worried for the rest of the season, and hope some of our young minor league guys pick it up so they can contribute when our other guys tail off. I know that we still have awhile to go, and trust me, I hope I'm wrong for the sake of everyone, but it really doesn't look good.

Z
Lilly
?
?
?

That's your rotation right there. I put Dempster as a ? mark, because he was woeful as a starter before with only one good season and hasn't been a starter for quite some time, then you have Marquis, and he's a ? for obvious reasons, and you have a minor league guy, whomever that might be, and is also a ? mark, because we have no idea who will permanently fill that role. Lilly, hopefully will bring down his ERA to normal career levels, and we all hope he can bring it down to last year's level, so outside of Zambrano, I see him as the only other solid starter we have

It's interesting that the Cubs site today reviews our farm (in more glowing terms than we do) and reviews the June 5/6 First Year Player Draft. We have picks 19 and 41. On the site there is rumored interest in OF, Zack Collier (CA H.S.), whom I think is ranked #42 and who is on a "quick pick" exercise of mine earlier this month. There's another "quick pick" avg. and power OF ranked #17, Dennis Raben of Miami U that looks interesting. Ranked #26 is 3b/1b, Brett Wallace AZ ST, and Allen Dykstra is ranked #31, a 1b at Wake Forest. Both are described as big time hitters and power guys and good athletes. Dykstra is Lenny's son. Like a lot of us, I would really like to see a couple of big time hitters on the Cubs' horizon. I would lean toward the college guys for both earlier returns and the rumor that we have a few Billy Williams, Ron Santo, Shawn Dunston and Fergie Jenkins types in our teenage pool at Mesa.