To leadoff or not to leadoff is the question Lou Piniella has to find an answer to once Alfonso Soriano returns from the DL. A report last week on Cubs.com indicated Soriano is pain free and several reports later in the week stated that when Soriano returns on Thursday against the Brewers he will hit first in the Cubs lineup. But the Cubs are 9-4 since he injured himself on the hop back on April 15th. With Reed Johnson in the starting lineup, the Cubs are 12-4, so where should Soriano hit in the new OBP oriented lineup?
First things first, by no means is this article suggesting Alfonso Soriano should not be in the starting lineup once he returns....much less be traded. Lou Piniella has a very good problem right now, too many players performing and not enough spots on the field. The Cubs offense did struggle last week toward the end of the 13-game stretch without a day off and Soriano's return should help spark the offense. With that out of the way, Alfonso Soriano should have seen the last lineup card with his name listed first on a daily basis.
Injuries to his legs have taken away Soriano's best asset. Teams are no longer afraid of him getting on base to start the game. The days of Soriano seeing fastballs are long gone and teams are taking advantage of his lack of plate discipline. The book on Soriano appears to be a steady diet of breaking balls and outside pitches. Until he quits trying to pull everything he will continue to swing and miss....or ground out to short.
Soriano must be on the field. As inconsistent as his defense can be in left, he gives Piniella an invaluable weapon in the outfield....the ability to throw out runner after runner at home plate. All of those assists are game changing plays and must not be overlooked. Piniella now has the challenge of where to hit him in the lineup to maximize his abilities for the good of the team.
Reed Johnson is providing results right now and it is no secret Lou Piniella plays the hot hand. Johnson is hitting .258 out of the leadoff spot, which is not very impressive, but his OBP is .395 from the top spot. Johnson might not be the prototypical leadoff hitter, but he is getting on base and sparking the offense....he has scored 8 runs in 8 games hitting first in Piniella's order.
The middle of the lineup should not be touched. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Kosuke Fukudome are a very formidable trio that has been very successful over the first month of the season. Soriano cannot hit second, that has been proven. So what would a Cubs' lineup look like with Soriano hitting sixth behind Fukudome?
Greg Couch stated his thoughts on Sunday morning on where Soriano should hit....and he thinks Soriano should follow Fukudome on most days as well.
Inserting Soriano behind Kosuke Fukudome would not only give Soriano more RBI opportunities, it will likely create an additional advantage for Fukudome. Teams would not want to face Soriano with a runner or runners on base and would try to avoid doing so. Soriano and the constant threat of the long ball would give Fukudome, an extremely disciplined hitter, more pitches he can handle. Not only would Soriano give a lot of power to the bottom third of the order but on days when all four players are in the lineup, the Cubs could arguably have the best three through six hitters in the National League, if not all of baseball. Think about it, how would an opposing manager pitch around this foursome.... Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano.
Inserting Soriano behind Fukudome would also take away the pressure of him trying to run at the top of the order and would allow him to fully recover from the leg injuries that have slowed him down since becoming a Cub. Soriano is a game-changing player that has the ability to carry a team when he is hot. Hitting lower in the order would also hide him when he is in a slump....all of those games where he does a lot of "swinging and missing."
Soriano has performed decently in the sixth spot during his career. In a very small sample size, .292/.292/.542/.833 with 7 doubles and 2 home runs in 9 games (7-for-24).
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Ryan Theriot has hit quite well behind Reed Johnson and Soriano this season (.389/.441/.593/1.033) and Piniella could use Mark DeRosa in the 2-hole as well. DeRosa has done a very good job behind Fukudome but his ability to put the ball in play and willingness to do what is best for the team might be a good fit hitting second ahead of Derrek Lee.
Soriano hitting sixth would give Piniella plenty of options for spots 2, 7 and 8....Geovany Soto, Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Theriot, Mark DeRosa. Both Theriot and Cedeno have an improved their approach at the plate and shown an ability to work the count. The eighth spot in a National League lineup is very important to the success of a team....unless you are the Brewers or the Cardinals.
On days when Felix Pie plays, Theriot could hit leadoff or Piniella could insert Soriano in the spot he says he's the most comfortable. While sporadic time at the top of the lineup might not be a bad thing, for the long term good of the team, Soriano must be moved down in the lineup.
The Cubs have the pieces....starting Thursday it will be up to Piniella to put the puzzle together.
i really like the idea of Soriano hitting 6th.. and that 3-6 would be ridiculous. The leadoff hitter paces the whole game, dont get me wrong, i love soriano but...if he is gonna try and go yard on every pitch thrown in the zip code to him..he will become nearly an automatic out. i want him to be the force he was in washington. his 33 jacks from last year would have been mighty fine down in the heart of the order where he can maximize his RBI's.. i just dont know why he has such a hard on for the leadoff spot. after the first inning...doesnt the lead off hitter just really become a guy in line with 8 other guys?
I'm just really confused. Why is there any issue to this? Sori simply is NOT a leadoff hitter. Heck, Fuk is more of a typical leadoff hitter, but he isnt being considered for it. I wish Lou would simply tell Sori that he is hitting 6th, where he should be, where he can contribute more to the team, or he wont be playing.
Just a thought.
First off, what a great problem to have. I think we may see several different lineups in the next couple of weeks.
I would like to see Soriano bat in front of Fukudome. This would likely make pitchers go right after Sori hopefully with bunches of fastballs. That being said, I can't justify moving Kosuke down in the lineup.
I don't see it happening; but I would like a two-game trial with Lee hitting 2nd followed by Rami, Sori, and 'Dome. Although that would take away from Lee's RBI opportunities. Perhaps Kosuke hitting 6th wouldn't be the worst thing.
The point I want to make is that Soriano needs protection in the lineup, whereas (in my humble opinion) Fukudome and Lee esspecially will put up numbers without a great hitter behind them.
The Book says: "He who hit big yet with no plate discipline should bat 6th." I guess that's Sori.
:p
Now, seriously, with a small sample size like 40 AB, are you seriously trying to persuade anyone that Sori SHOULDN't bat 2nd? I'm not saying he should, but anything that's not as plausible with proof like that only makes me feel, well, confused.
Fuk's OPS with heavy OBP (as Baseball Prospectus projected, which I didn't agree last year but now I see how it is more accurate) means the Dome must bat first. Even the concept of Markov Chain inspired some to see that.
Reed and Theriot may be interchangeable. Pie needs time to bat as well. I have more problem with not seeing Pie batting than Sori. But maybe that's just me...
Jimbo et.al., ...My take is that the simple truths, like Soriano not being a logical lead-off hitter, are often compromised in the era of the "star system". To a much lesser degree, that may have been the case in the "good old days" too. But ownership, managers and fellow players tolerate and accommodate Manny being Manny, Sammy blasting the clubhouse with his boom box (and angering many of his teammates), and maybe Alfonso being himself--until they are no longer putting up their numbers (their way). It may be largely attributable to the sense that the stars and their ways have driven up everyone's salary and brought in the fans and the advertising dollars. So don't bite the hands that feed you--even if they come with distractions.
There is something of a case to be made that, if Soriano is a 40 homer guy, leads the league in outfield assists, and is only comfortable and productive in the leadoff spot, that he will bat leadoff. That would be exceptional and useful production, and he and his contract likely aren't going anywhere. There's also some hope that, like Alex Rodriquez who shifted to third for the Yankees for the good of the team, Soriano and Lou may reach a happy accord on where Alfonso hits and do the same.
Soriano does seem to have good chemistry with a lot of teammates, and he does see what the Cubs have done in his absence. If Soriano doesn't hit close to .300 and put up his expected power numbers over the next 30 days and the team does poorly, Lou will have to make changes.
The best case would be for Alfonso to hit well wherever Lou thinks he should be in the order--which is obvious to us but easier said than done in today's environment. The next best case is that Soriano puts up excellent numbers in the leadoff position and the Cubs continue on a path to win 90 + games.
"If Soriano doesn't hit close to .300 and put up his expected power numbers over the next 30 days and the team does poorly, Lou will have to make changes."
I feel this way exactly, JimK.
Those of you who golf, perhaps you do better when you start on the back 9? How many MLB pitchers have a decent start if they go 1-2-3 in the first inning?
The thing with him is it is entirely psychological, imo. One would think, with his experience at the highest levels of baseball, that he could adjust to another slot in the lineup. Apparently he will not, or just cannot succeed, unless he hits 1st.
It is pretty pathetic, actually. But all of this hashing out is just a waste of time. HE is the $136MM leadoff man - unless he completely cannot do the job anymore.
With this as a given, WHY couldn't Lou work the other side of the equation to address this circumstance: bat the pitcher 8th?
Nobody knows the real reason why Soriano doesn't hit in the middle of the order. Over the past three years, he has a batting average of .255 with runners on base, .237 with men in scoring position, and .211 with men in scoring position with two outs. With bases empty, he bats .296. It's clear that he does not understand how to hit in those situations, and probably tries to overswing or do too much. While people may not like it, he is most suitable to hit in the leadoff spot, where there are fewer opportunities to hit with men on base. In comparison, Aramis Ramirez hits .305 with runners in scoring position, and Derrek Lee hit .341.
Off the subject but worth noting…
I am not sure how many of you were reading Oriole’s blogs over the past 6 months while the Brian Roberts trade rumors were a daily occurrence but if you did you will remember most every O’s fan ridiculing the players rumored to be offered by the Cubs. It really got on my nerves to hear O’s fans belittle our players so I hope they enjoy losing 100 games this year.
More importantly I hope they read Jon Heyman’s column on the Sports Illustrated website yesterday. Here is the excerpt and the link:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/04/28/heyman.gmhotseat/1.html
“Maybe the Orioles should have tried harder to complete a trade for Brian Roberts to the Cubs. Among players the Cubs offered at one time or other, Ronny Cedeno is batting .364, Sean Marshall has a 1.80 ERA, Sean Gallagher has a 2-1 record and 1.93 ERA at Triple-A Iowa, and Donnie Veal is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA at Double-A Tennessee.”
I guess anywhere except the leadoff. I don't mind him at 3rd/5th or 6th. But what do I know? Besides I think I jinx the Cubs when I go to the ball park to see them. Thats a 1-5...I think I'll just watch in TV or I need to get a spiritual
"vudu" job or something.
Agustin,
We were talking about you last night. So sorry that you've had disappointing live game experiences. I think Neil said last year was the Marlins, correct? It's bad enough to watch a loss on TV, but the excitement of being at the game and seeing the loss for yourself is no fun at all.
For what it's worth - you're not a 'jinx'. It was just a bad series. I hope the rest of your trip was fun!
Thanks Abby...you are great! And yes the trip was awesome plus we went to Baltimore wich we had never visited. My daughter [5]obviously does not yet understand the concept of homefield and she could not understand why the Cubs lost if everybody in the park was celebrating and even had fire works in the sky! LOL. Not to mention that I also had to buy her a "foam hand" with the finger and it had written: Go Nats...
Oh well that just tells me that I have to go back to Wrigley were I have watch them win a lot more than they loose..[Ain't that something?] I'll go some time this year and hope to meet you all.