A couple of weeks back the CCO took a look at the Cubs' offense for the upcoming season. Today the second of the CCO's 3-part preseason predictions will focus on Lou Piniella's pitching staff.
Lou Piniella still has a few decisions to make.... Which two pitchers will fill out the rotation? Who will end up closing for the Cubs? Bobby Howry? Carlos Marmol? Or will Kerry Wood stay healthy enough to pitch in the 9th inning? Will Scott Eyre be the only lefty?
Baseball Prospectus is one of the most respected baseball sites on the Internet. For those of you that do not subscribe, consider yourself a stathead and have the means....the CCO highly recommends this site as a part of your daily baseball reading. PECOTA is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. Nate Silver invented this sabermetric system for predicting player performance.
The Bill James Handbook is described as "the best and most complete annual baseball reference guide available today." Bill James termed the study of statistical data as sabermetrics.
Here is a brief look at how those two publications predict the Cubs pitching staff will perform in the upcoming season.
BJH - Win-Loss record/ERA - games pitched - games started/innings pitched/saves/hits allowed/HR's allowed/walks/strikeouts
BP - Win-Loss record/ERA/WHIP - games started/innings pitched/saves/hits allowed/HR's allowed/walk/strikeouts
Pitchers
Jose Ascanio
- BJH - n/a
- BP - 3-3/4.68/1.50 - 48 games - 2/53/3/56/7/24/37
Neal Cotts
- BJH - 2-2/4.20 - 30 games - 0/30/0/27/4/16/27
- BP - 2-2/4.31/1.47 - 1/41/3/39/5/22/35
Ryan Dempster
- BJH - Ryan Dempster's projections from the Bill James Handbook is based on Dempster being the Cubs closer
- BP - 6-7/4.89/1.54 - 10/60/2/113/11/47/78
Scott Eyre
- BJH - 3-3/4.09 - 61 games - 0/55/0/52/5/28/50
- BP - 2-1/4.11/1.50 - 0/45/1/41/4/26/42
Sean Gallagher
- BJH - n/a
- BP - 4-5/4.98/1.56 - 10/55/0/89/11/43/62
Kevin Hart
- BJH - n/a
- BP - 3-3/5.87/1.63 - 0/60/0/70/9/28/40
Rich Hill
- BJH - 14-9/3.50 - 33 games - 33/206/0/173/28/69/223
- BP - 12-8/4.06/1.26 - 29/185/0/171/25/61/169
Bobby Howry
- BJH - 6-3/3.28 - 80 games - 0/85/7/76/8/24/69
- BP - 4-4/3.57/1.21 - 0/70/16/65/8/19/57
Jon Lieber
- BJH - 10-8/4.04 - 27 games - 27/167/0/185/22/29/107
- BP - 4-4/4.71/1.39 - 13/75/0/87/16/16/43
Ted Lilly
- BJH - 12-11/3.98 - 34 games - 34/208/0/196/31/77/174
- BP - 11-8/4.29/1.32 - 27/180/0/178/27/60/148
Carlos Marmol
- BJH - 5-4/4.00 - 66 games - 0/81/2/68/9/44/85
- BP - 4-3/3.84/1.39 - 0/65/14/54/7/36/72
Jason Marquis
- BJH - 9-12/4.66 - 34 games - 32/191/0/198/27/74/109
- BP - 5-5/5.14/1.50 - 17/100/0/112/14/37/57
Sean Marshall
- BJH - 6-6/4.15 - 23 games - 19/102/0/100/13/41/68
- BP - 5-5/4.78/1.46 - 18/100/0/106/12/39/64
Carmen Pignatiello
- BJH - n/a
- BP - 2-1/3.75/1.36 - 0/40/0/38/3/16/31
Kerry Wood
- BJH - 4-3/3.75 - 50 games - 0/60/0/48/7/29/65
- BP - 2-2/4.20/1.39 - 0/45/9/40/5/22/44
Michael Wuertz
- BJH - 5-3/3.50 - 69 games - 0/72/0/59/7/32/83
- BP - 3-2/3.53/1.33 - 0/60/3/52/5/27/60
Carlos Zambrano
- BJH - 14-10/3.52 - 32 games - 32/215/0/177/19/99/189
- BP - 13-8/3.88/1.34 - 31/205/0/186/20/88/181
So what are your thoughts? Who is right, Baseball Prospectus or the Bill James Handbook? Or are both wrong?
CCO Projections Contest
This is the second contest of the spring with the winner decided upon percentage of players correctly predicted. You do not have to make a prediction on all of the players above, but must pick at least five....same as before.
- Starting Pitchers - Win-Loss Record, ERA, WHIP
- Relief Pitchers - Win-Loss Record, ERA, WHIP, Saves
Your prediction must meet the following criteria:
Within (plus/minus) .10 on ERA and WHIP but the win-loss record must correctly be predicted.
In order to participate, leave a comment with your predictions....but please only one prediction per reader. If you have not already given your predictions on the offensive numbers, here is the link:
A Look Ahead....Predicting the Offense for 2008
Winners will be announced at the end of the regular season and there will be prizes awarded, probably some CCO swag or something else we deem cool that comes our way during the year.
Note - The CCO will accept predictions made up until the first pitch of Opening Day on March 31st.
As before....remember to have fun. There are no right or wrong answers to these predictions.
Coming Next Week - A Look Ahead....The Final Standings
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Thank you BP and BJH for ruining my breakfast, and Neil too for serving up their UGLI fruit. BP gives us 85 wins with 17 pitchers, and if we don't keep Marquis, Marshall and Cotts, we win 73. BJH gives us 85 + Dempster (no prediction) and 68 if we minus M, M and C. If Z and Lilly only win 24 (BP) and 26 (BJH), our chances for any kind of glory are slim and none. And Slim may have already left the friendly confines. We may see Leo Durocher driving his famous bus back to the ball park. In his first year, he said, "If these guys don't start playing, I'm going to back up the bus and haul a bunch of their as... out of here."
I think I'll wait a few days for the roster dust to clear before predictions. But Lieber will have much better numbers than the 4 wins and 75 inninigs that BP is predicting, and Z--Lilly should be closer to 35 wins than 25. As expressed yesterday, we do have too many 4-5 guys, and another true 2-3 hole starter is likely a must have.
I am going to say they are both wrong.
I don't know why I even read article by Rick Morrisey, he irritates me.
What bs formula are theese guys using? Marmol with a 4.0 ERA and Z winning only 13/14 games with an offense thats better than last year? And Lieber's going to win more that Lilly, even though Liily has won 15 2 years in a row and Liebers coming off an injury. I'm all for Fantasy baseball, but it seems like the predictions the last couple of years have been based more on fantasy stats than the real world.
JimK's predictions for starters (including Lieber sooner rather than later) are:
Z'brano 21W--9L, 3.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Lilly 14W--9L, 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Hill 13W--10L, 3.92 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
For Relievers the predictions are:
Wood 4W--3L, 2.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 35 SAV
Marmol 6W--3L, 2.25 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9 SAV
Lieber 10W--7L, 4.22 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
On my pitching predictions above, Lieber is identified as a starter, and I would swear I had him listed as a starter right under Hill. He should be listed as a starter for me.