This is the first of at least three predictions contests for the upcoming season here at the CCO. As the countdown to Opening Day has begun the big question is....how will the Cubs' offense perform once the games count? Rumors still suggest the Cubs could end up with a new leadoff hitter before long but in the meantime Lou Piniella will continue to tinker with his lineup. Last season the Cubs offense struggled at times, especially in the power department, will Lou Piniella's crew be able to improve on last season's offensive output?
Baseball Prospectus is one of the most respected baseball sites on the Internet. For those of you that do not subscribe, consider yourself a stathead and have the means....the CCO highly recommends this site as a part of your daily baseball reading. PECOTA is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. Nate Silver invented this sabermetric system for predicting player performance.
The Bill James Handbook is described as "the best and most complete annual baseball reference guide available today." Bill James termed the study of statistical data as sabermetrics.
Here is a brief look at how those two publications predict the Cubs offense will perform in the upcoming season.
BJH - Bill James Handbook
BP - Baseball Prospectus
Their predictions are broken out as follows:
BJH - Avg/OBP/Slg/OPS - projected games played - doubles/triples/HR's/RBI's - walks/strikeouts
BP - Avg/OBP/Slg - plate appearances - HR's/RBI's
Catchers
Henry Blanco
- BJH - n/a
- BP - .224/.267/.350 - 165 - 3/17
Geovany Soto
- BJH - .291/.362/.487/.849 - 110 games - 30/1/17/71 - 47/103
- BP - .273/.352/.470 - 496 - 18/69
Infielders
Ronny Cedeno
- BJH - n/a
- BP - .278/.326/.422 - 369 - 8/41
Mark DeRosa
- BJH - .279/.348/.405/.753 - 143 games - 29/1/11/64 - 49/97
- BP - .286/.360/.439 - 481 - 11/57
Mike Fontenot
- BJH - .279/.345/.416/.761 - 90 games - 20/3/5/32 - 30/51
- BP - .282/.357/.431 - 300 - 5/31
Derrek Lee
- BJH - .297/.386/.515/.901 - 136 games - 35/1/25/80 - 69/111
- BP - .303/.387/.527 - 625 - 26/96
Aramis Ramirez
- BJH - .296/.355/.532/.887 - 148 games - 37/2/31/108 - 46/74
- BP - .301/.363/.536 - 609 - 28/104
Ryan Theriot
- BJH - .283/.348/.371/.719 - 140 games - 30/3/3/47 - 50/47
- BP - .270/.330/.347 - 452 - 1/32
Daryle Ward
- BJH - .264/.338/.424/.762 - 80 games - 8/0/4/20 - 13/24
- BP - .277/.358/.459 - 172 - 5/24
Outfielders
Kosuke Fukudome
- BJH - n/a
- BP - .289/.401/.504 - 553 - 17/68
- Full projection from BP's Nate Silver in December
- .289/.401/.504 with 30 doubles, 4 triples, 15 HR's, 58 RBI's, 70 walks, 94 strikeouts
Sam Fuld
- BJH - n/a
- BP - .265/.334/.369 - 128 - 0/9
Matt Murton
- BJH - .305/.373/.468/.841 - 90 games - 13/1/7/28 - 23/30
- BP - .295/.359/.462 - 376 - 10/47
Eric Patterson
- BJH - n/a
- BP - .268/.337/.429 - 66 - 1/6
Felix Pie
- BJH - .283/.333/.456/.789 - 147 games - 30/7/16/62 - 40/111
- BP - .291/.344/.479 - 418 - 13/51
Alfonso Soriano
- BJH - .278/.328/.517/.845 - 153 games - 40/2/35/86 - 39/142
- BP - .278/.336/.544 - 694 - 39/118
So what are your thoughts?
CCO Predictions Contest
The winner, or winners, will be decided upon percentage of players correctly predicted. You do not have to make a prediction on all of the players above, but must pick at least five.
Position Players - Average, OBP, Home Runs and RBI's
Your prediction must meet the following criteria:
Within (plus/minus) .10 on average and OBP and within (plus/minus) 5 on home runs and RBI's
Winners will be announced at the end of the regular season and there will be prizes awarded, probably some CCO swag or something else we deem cool that comes our way during the year.
But most importantly, remember to have fun....there are no right or wrong answers to these predictions.
The CCO's predictions contest for the pitchers will take place closer to the start of the regular season once the rotation is set and the competition in the bullpen has sorted itself out. And there will also be a predictions contest for each division in both leagues....hat tip to Jim Kneisley for the idea.
Average, OBP, Home Runs and RBI's
Catchers
Henry Blanco .218/.255 2/22
Geovany Soto .284/.344 22/72
Infielders
Ronny Cedeno .270/.316 9/37
Mark DeRosa .286/.352 12/63
Mike Fontenot .269/.328 6/28
Derrek Lee .310/.390 32/128
Aramis Ramirez .300/.360 34/105
Ryan Theriot .279/.330 4/43
Daryle Ward .289/.340 6/29
Outfielders
Kosuke Fukudome .297/.398 15/62
Sam Fuld .260/.321/ 1/10
Matt Murton .296/.355 8/27
Eric Patterson .254/.310 1/8
Felix Pie .276/.322 12/54
Alfonso Soriano .296/.340 36/105
As a rookie entering his first predictions rodeo, I'm wondering how you submit an entry. Do you post, email or send a sealed envelope via Brinks to Price Waterhouse?
I'm going to change my RBIs for Alf to 95...if that's okay?
I've been skeptical about getting roberts, but came around to the idea with this lineup:
Roberts
Fukudome
Soriano
Lee
Ramirez
Soto
Pie
Theriot
Realistically, I would give up Cedeno, Patterson, and Gallagher or Ceda for Roberts.
OK here we go
Fukudome .285/.380/15/78
Lee .315/.380/31/120
Ramirez .265/.310/24/98
Soriano .302/.350/34/100
Soto .265/.300/18/78
Aaron,
When the dust settles you lineup will probably be about right.
Not my first choice but not a bad lineup either.
If Soriano struggles though, I think they will move him back to the leadoff, put roberts second and move fuko to the 5th spot. But I would prefer something simular to your lineup.
Maybe would move Soriano to the 5th spot and everybody up. Only because he is a bad pitch hitter(out of the strike zone). He don't need as much protection.
JimK,
Go ahead and post predictions here. Although the armored car idea isn't too bad....
jerljr...i hope your predictions of soto and ramirez are wrong...those are poopy numbers
Performance predictions for my Pick Six. (I want the baseball gods to surprise me with the rest.)
Soto: .275/.355/16/77
DeRosa: .272/.358/ 9/54
Lee: .328/.394/24/112
Rameriz: .294/.358/34/109
Theriot: .286/.366/ 5/51
Pie: .271/.331/10/44
Soriano .300/.341/44/108
Theriot .282/.348/2/58
Lee .311/.402/31/115
Fukudome.287/.408/17/94
Ramirez .305/.381/35/107
Soto .272/.338/18/71
DeRosa .293/.364/13/60
Pie .277/.338/17/68
Dream lineup
Roberts 2B
Fukudome RF
Lee 1B
Soriano LF
Ramirez 3b
DeRosa SS
Soto C
Pie CF
I know they are but thats what I expect.
Soto will do good against lefties but will struggle against right handers.
and Ramirez it'ss just the pessimistic in me, I'm expecting him to fall off a little this year.
This is based off of a posting a few months ago, dont remember what it was and I dont remember why it made me think this way, but it made me think he could have a attitude problem this year.
not to mention that with some more pop in the lineup in front of him, he wont be in as many RBI situations(they will be knocked in before he gets to bat) Sorry for being so vague. Plus, I hope that I am wrong.
Off the subject, is anybody interested in getting a fantasy baseball league together from people on this website. If your interested just post something and I'll find a website for us to do it on.
Playing a little first base over the offseason has apparently made Medium-Sized Z think he's D-Lee. Z just went yard.
Matt you beat me to it....maybe I should have included a prediction for Zambrano's offensive numbers as well.
Roberts - 2B
Fuker - RF
Lee - 1B
Ramirez - 3B
Soriano - LF
Soto - C
Theriot - SS
Pie - CF
P
Bench - DeRosa, Payton, Ward, Blanco, Cintron
Rotation - Z, Lilly, Demp, Hill, Marshall
CL - Woody
SU - Howry
"get out of jail free card" - Marmol
Lefties - Eyre and Pignatiello
Long Men - Lieber and Hart
Marquis, Murton, Cedeno are packaged with a couple young arms to Baltimore to finally get this deal done. Cubs aquire Roberts, Jay Payton and some minor leaguer we've never heard of.
Also, Trader Jim will trade for a very good SP at the deadline to push us over the hump.
These are your 2008 World Champion Chicago Cubs.
Go Cubbies!!!
Here are my predictions for Z's season:
1 complete mental breakdown
2 heated (on-screen) arguements with fellow team members
3 interviews in which he refers to himself in the third person
Steve:
We think alike. I agree with your roster 100%!
jerljr - let me know about the fantasy baseball idea... I can be reached at baseball at ejewell dot com
Why doesnt Shawn Green have a job? Could he be a fit for a tough fourth outfielder, if Matt Murton is traded?
I had to work today. But here it goes...
One Bold prediction
1)Geovany Soto[Silver Slugger,Rookie of the year]
.287/.358/28/71 Believe it! [team mvp]
Dlee-.319/.354/31/101
Aramis-.299/342/33/112
Soriano-.274/325/36/99
Fuku-.289/351/12/68 [2nd hole]
Roberts-.301/378/15/61 [sigh]
Zambrano-.290/321/7/21 [silver slugger]