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Call him Carlos, or Big Z, or El Toro but the Cubs' pitcher that most often refers to himself in the third person is arguably the biggest key to the upcoming season. Carlos Zambrano is the number one pitcher on the Cubs' staff and possesses the stuff to be a legitimate ace, but he has yet to put it all together over a full season.
From all reports Zambrano has arrived in Arizona much more relaxed and focused than in years past. This spring he has not made any predictions, he left that to Ryan Dempster, and has quietly gone about his business....expect for the little practical joke on Kosuke Fukudome.
Lou Piniella has preached the importance of the Cubs getting off to a good start. With the lopsided schedule, this team must win early and often. One of the key ingredients needed for a successful start is Carlos Zambrano avoiding his early season struggles.
Carlos Zambrano reported to camp in shape and minus more than a few pounds. He has thrown the ball extremely well, especially in his last start when he faced one over the minimum in 6 innings and allowed just 2 balls to leave the infield. But does a good Spring Training translate to wins once the season starts?
April has not been to kind to Big Z over the years. In 33 games, 26 starts, he is 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while opponents have hit .250 against him. For comparison, other than April, his worst month is August.... 11-15 in 33 games with a 3.81 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP and a .223 opponents batting average. His August numbers are close to his career marks in ERA and WHIP (82-55 in 201 games, 180 starts, with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP and a .226 opponents batting average). But nowhere near the numbers he has put up in April.
Zambrano's Opening Day struggles have been well documented and even led Big Z to give the first start of the season to Ted Lilly during the last Cubs' Convention, only to take back the offer once pitchers and catchers reported to Mesa last month.
Zambrano has been just short of dominating this spring, so how does this year's tune-up compare to previous exhibition seasons and has it had any effect on April performances?
2005 Spring Training
1-0 in 5 starts (20 IP), 3 runs, all earned, on 18 hits with 5 walks and 18 strikeouts....a 1.35 ERA and a 1.15 whip
April 2005
2-0 in 5 starts (31 1/3 IP), 15 runs, all earned, on 26 hits, 6 home runs allowed with 12 walks and 27 strikeouts....a 4.31 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and a .222 opponents batting average
2006 Spring Training
0-2 in 4 starts (19 IP), 8 runs, all earned, on 15 hits with 4 walks and 20 strikeouts....a 3.79 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP
April 2006
0-2 in 6 starts (33 2/3 IP), 23 runs, 20 earned, on 33 hits, 6 home runs allowed with 25 walks and 38 strikeouts....a 5.35 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP and a .256 opponents batting average
2007 Spring Training
2-1 in 5 starts (20 2/3 IP), 9 runs, 6 earned, on 19 hits with 6 walks and 21 strikeouts....a 2.61 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP
April 2007
2-2 in 6 starts (34 1/3 IP), 22 runs, all earned, on 37 hits, 8 home runs allowed with 19 walks and 25 strikeouts....a 5.77 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP and a .278 opponents batting average
2008 Spring Training
Zambrano is scheduled to make two more starts with one possibly in minor league camp, but here are his numbers after 4 starts
1-0 in 4 starts (15 IP), 2 runs, 1 earned, on 8 hits with 3 walks and 14 strikeouts....a 0.60 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP
Zambrano will likely pitch another 5-7 innings before Opening Day on March 31st.
Based on his three previous springs, for the most part his win-loss record does carry over into April but the biggest jump from a statistical standpoint is in walks and hits allowed....which translates into runs. Zambrano has a tendency to over throw when his emotions get the best of him but Larry Rothschild has noticed a big difference in Zambrano and hopefully that change will translate to a solid year on the field.
PECOTA is projecting Zambrano to finish the season with 13-8 record, a 3.88 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 31 starts with 181 strikeouts and 88 walks. For the Cubs to reach the post season, Zambrano will have to put up better numbers than the projection from Baseball Prospectus.
This April should be a little different for Big Z and maybe, just maybe, a better start will make his prediction from a year ago become reality. He has his contract and all he has to do is pitch.
It is time for the bull to take the ball....and win a bunch of games.
Trips to the Northside
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The PECOTA sucks re. Z. He has a career 3.41 ERA, and it doesn't measure AAG. That would be the Attitude Applied Grade, with a range of A to F. Z exhibits fitness, focus, effort and team commitment--the four pillars of AAG. The results are outstanding, and Z will top 20 wins this year. His AAG is A.
Last Friday, I observed D. Lee taking extra batting practice, and he was hitting balls off the CF wall and out of HoHoKam. He is focussing on getting his power stroke back after the injury. He hit one off the wall in the game. He hustled on and off the field and after foul pop ups down the line. He also gets an A on the AAG. Theriot also graded well. Soriano didn't, and you hope he does better when the season starts.
JimK -
where can I find the AAG ratings? Are they online somewhere?
I'd be interested to see how the rest of the pitching staff is rated.
Sorry to not be clear on my AAG ratings, and I haven't rated them all. Wood and Marmol would be A's. Eyre is a D based upon fitness and effort. He is 50 lbs. over what he weighed during his best years and hits too many bats.
Marquis is a D based upon lagging fitness in August and September and being disruptive in the clubhouse. A. Rameriz could move up from B to A if he ran hard all the time out of the batters box on balls in play. DeRosa is an A for staying focussed and giving great effort even as he personally wants a set position.
JimK - Are the "AAG" rankings a figment of your imagination?
Z's make-up and inconsistency make him a hard guy to project. I think Z should win a few more games and have a slightly lower ERA than the PECOTA projection, but I don't think the PECOTA is too far off when you talk about the most likely scenario. Z could win 20 if he pitches to his ability this year, I just don't see it as the most likely outcome. Based on that talent alone, one could have projected Z to win 20 each of the last three seasons, but he didn't. What's to say this year is any different than the past?
Z still has to pitch the games David, but he's lost weight, he seems to have better control of his emotions, he's throwing a lot more strikes, he's going out of his way to compliment teammates. He seems to be a more mature guy than in the past.
Cliff...Yes on the grading scale. It seems to me that about everyone in the bigs has talent. So I put a lot of emphasis on their being in shape, having enough focus to remember how many outs there are and knowing where to throw the ball, throwing strikes, holding runners, advancing runners, hitting the cutoff man and running hard enough to get to second when somebody drops a fly ball or mis-plays a single. These things are more a function of attitude and effort and doing what you have to do to win than they are talent alone. And, I'm sure that all of the Faithful understand these things as well as I do.
Jim K:
I like your AAG Rankings. You might have something there. Years ago, when I played little league there was a saying. "A walk is good as a hit." There are two meaning for this:
1) It was meant as encouragement for a batter who wasn't really that good at swinging the bat, hence
take a walk.
2) For a good hitter, to be patient and to "wait" for his pitch to hit.
Years later, they had a name for it. On Base Percentage.
How did Dusty never learn that??????????????????
Rothschild said... Whatever.
He's been with the Cubs as a pitching coach for 6 years, and I bet he already saw that Z's walk rate (BB/9) has been rising SIGNIFICANTLY for the past 3 years.
Somebody tell me there's no problem. By the way, just to read ahead of our division, had somebody observed how Harang (Cincy) or Sheet (that Miller guy) has been doing in Spring Training???
Dorasaga, What problem are you saying we have?
I haven't seen what either of those two have been doing.
nick,
I was talking about the trend of Z issuing more and more walks, apparently. Walks are bad.
:-)
But if Sheet and Harang won't outperform themselves, I can't say Cubs won't have the better rotation in the division, and it'll count a lot.
That is true, I would really like to see Z cut down on the walks.