Should the Cubs trade several prospects for Brian Roberts? Should they trade for Marlon Byrd of the Texas Rangers? The short answer to both of them is a resounding no.
Let me start off with the Marlon Byrd deal. Allegedly this deal would include Matt Murton and another prospect or two. Great deal for the Rangers, they acquire a proven commodity in Murton, who can start at two OF positions, and probably a midlevel prospect. Murton's career stat line reads like this .296 BA/.352 OBP/.438 SLG in 830 ABs. The Cubs get Marlon Byrd whom can play all 3 outfield positions and is slightly a better defender than Murton. His stat line reads .273 BA/.334 OBP/.394 SLG.
As the numbers show, Murton gets on base more and even has more pop in his bat. The only reason to make this trade is to have a backup in centerfield for Felix Pie but this is where I can see a fault in the trade. Alfonso Soriano, Mark DeRosa, and to a lesser extent Ronny Cedeno, and Kosuke Fukudome can all fill in at center for Pie. This is assuming Sam Fuld does not make the roster. Also, with Soriano being hurt, this would be perfect for Murton to get more ABs because I have a feeling this injury is worse than they are letting the public know.
If the Cubs did not have these temporary options in CF and were not giving up an extra prospect, then maybe I could agree with the trade. Murton is even making less money than Byrd this season. Overall, I believe the Cubs are overvaluing Byrd and undervaluing Murton.
The Brian Roberts trade is more understandable but nevertheless, not a trade with good long-term implications for the Cubs. Roberts is a career .281 BA/.351 OBP/.409 SLG hitter while Mark DeRosa is .278 BA/.341 OBP/.408 SLG, the numbers are eerily similar. I would be fine with trading Murton for Roberts straight up or even including an average prospect but the trade rumors that I have heard call for the Cubs to give the Orioles a combination of Sean Gallagher, Felix Pie, Eric Patterson, Jose Ceda, Sean Marshall, Matt Murton, and Ronny Cedeno. The number I keep hearing is 3 of those will go to them for Roberts.
This price is too much to pay for a player with nearly the same career numbers as a player already on the roster. Yes, I know DeRosa is older and apparently, he has or had a heart condition but do not want the Cubs turning into the White Sox. By turning into the White Sox, I mean trading away young talent for veterans. It worked out for them but that was mostly due to all of their pitchers having career years, if you remember hard enough, you would remember even Neal Cotts had a sparkling ERA of 1.96 that season.
Now, the Sox have no farm system and have no talent in the pipeline. They were good for a couple of seasons but they should be a perennial top ten pick come June for the next few years.
Make no mistake, I want Roberts but I will not pay a king's ransom for him and deplete us of our young talent, and our farm system is middle of the pack to begin with.














This kind of mindset builds a winner, but not a champion. You even said you didn't want to be like the White Sox. You mean you don't want to root for a World Series champion, if only for a year? I'd trade in 5-8 years of watching a terrible team afterwards just to root for the champion one time.
The offensive core of Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, and Fukudome is not young. Lilly isn't young, and Zambrano is building up significant wear and tear as he piles up the innings. Be realistic and tell me what the window of opportunity is in winning the World Series with the roster as currently constructed? It's not long. Maybe three years? Then you have to start over. Do you wait on prospects that may or may not produce within the three year period, or do you get people who will push you over the top and win now?
With your Roberts/DeRosa numbers....you could argue that DeRosa had an inexplicable career year in Texas in '06 and that last season was merely a product of the jump to the NL from the AL. Before that he was a subpar offensive player. Roberts has never been subpar, and he adds the ability to bat leadoff successfully, moving Soriano out of the top spot where he most certainly doesn't belong. He's also a better base-stealer, better fielder, and frees up DeRosa to strengthen our bench.
I wouldn't want to mortgage the future for a bad move (adding Byrd), but to discount the amount of impact Roberts would have (especially considering the non-statistical factors of his move to the NL, into a MUCH better lineup, and playing for something for the first time in his career) in lieu of saving a group of average or unproven players is, again, the type of thinking that gets you 90 wins and an LDS exit.
Do whatever it takes to win the championship and stop the suffering.
Raul, I think you may be over-simplifing things here. First, Roberts is a much better defensive two bagger than DeRosa. Secondly, Roberts is an excellent lead-off man, which DeRosa is not a very good fit for. Third, DeRosa doesn't have 50 steals in his career much less in a single season. Don't get me wrong, I really like what DeRo brings to the table. I'm just saying that Roberts is well worth a handful of prospects that will most likely never amount to anything. They are prospects! You'll get a hole new pile of them after the draft. I'd trade any prospect if it will bring in MLB proven talent.
I'd like to keep Murton and I don't think we should give him up for the likes of Marlyn Byrd either, but come on man. The "back up" CF options you mentioned are a joke. DeRosa? Soriano? Cedeno? No Way! DeRosa is average in RF and doesn't cover nearly enough ground to play center. We tried the Soriano experiment and we all know how that turned out. Has Ronny Cedeno ever played the outfield at all? Fukudome (who has never played a single MLB game) should be acceptable as a back up from all reports. That's it though. Now, I don't think that Byrd is the answer and I wouldn't give up much at all to get him, but we don't really have a viable back up in CF.
That's my two cents.
Go Cubbies!!!
One must also wonder how pretty is B.Roberts wife compared to that of M.Derosa's?
Agustin, LOL, good point.
Oooo I think DeRo probably has him beat there.
Derosa has never played a game in CF in his major league career.
I saw Cedeno playing CF the other day and he makes me less comfortable than when I was watching JJ out there.
I was thinking about Pie last night while watching sportscenter. Let me throw out this disclaimer first... I understand no situation or player is exactly the same as the next but for this example bear with me. What do you think DBacks fans were saying about Chris Young when he got his chance in 70 AB's a couple years ago and hit .243 and only hit 2 HR's? Last year he was below the mendoza line in June and hit .205 in August. Did the DBacks bench this guy, demote him, or trade for a veteran? NO! When it was all said and done he finished 3 SB's shy of being a 30/30 guy in his first full year.
My point is not that PIE will go 30/30 this year BUT... what if he does? The possibility exists (especially considering he will face the Cardinals/Pirates/Astros pitching staff more often than most). (
****DON'T TRADE PIE!!!
Steve,
Well said on Roberts/CF options.
all i have to say is 100 years i dont care about the farm system anymore If brain roberts is the point between us a championship i will sell my whole farm system for it. There is no reason to think about our future when have a 100 year gorilla on our back
STEVE & SHOW AGREE WITH COMMENTS ESPECIALLY THE ONE WITH "This kind of mindset builds a winner, but not a champion." OOO YAAA WHEN NEED ROBERTS
1. GREAT LEADOFF MAN 50 STOLEN BASES
2. SORIANO CANT RUN YET
4. BETTER LINEUP THAN IN BALTIMORE "BETTER NUMBERS HERE"
5. DEROSA CAN STILL PLAY AT SS OR OF
6. WIN NEED TO WIN A WORLD SERIES NOW
Guys, Roberts isn't Johan Santana, Eric Bedard or Dan Haren. He isn't what Mark Prior and Kerry Wood were in 2003. He isn't C.C. Sabathia. He isn't the closer that was standing between us and the playoffs in 2004. He is a leadoff guy. He is good, but he is not the link between us and a championship. He will come and be good and steal some bases and get on and score runs, though I doubt at the production level we saw last year. It'll be exciting, and certainly help us win games. But he wont win us a championship. He could help, and adding him will make us much better. But he wont make us otherworldly. Thinking he is the answer and giving up a bunch of prospects, including Pie, for him would be a mistake. We're all big fans of Theriot. I like the idea of seeing what he can do leading off. He reminds me of a right handed David Eckstein, not much raw talent but a lot of hustle and just enough to be really good in his role. Plus he thrived there last year.
Andrew: Thanks for mentioning 6 aces in comparison with an all-star 2nd base-playing leadoff hitter. That's apples and oranges. Look at who we are supposedly giving up (think in terms of winning now):
- Murton -- bench player
- Cedeno -- never proven anything more than average at the major league level, possibly never will
- Ceda -- not going to play in the majors this year
- Marshall -- an extra starter at best
- Gallagher -- not on the big league roster in all likelihood
- Patterson -- not going to help the big club much this season.
Roberts is a missing piece because this is a 90-93 win team as assembled and he allows the lineup parts to assemble into a much better machine. Theriot (who is right-handed just like Eckstein, by the way) is no better than a 7-hitter in the bigs. Hustle doesn't = talent. I like him, fine, but you have to be realistic.
As for Pie, I'd rather keep him...but if we have to include him in the trade I'm sure we can find CF help somewhere (KENNY LOFTON??!!?). Make '08 the year. I'm tired of waiting. You can't rebuild and play for now at the same time. Pick one, and I pick now.
I have to agree with Raul here, and here's why:
1) We still don't know what type of production Roberts will give without performance enhancing drugs....Spring Training stats?!?!? Are you kidding me? Didn't Scott McClain have like 10 home runs one spring for us? ST stats don't matter at all.
2) I would be fine with Murton for Roberts straight up, but no team would ever give up a former All-Star for a young, unproven talent. However, Raul made a great point----he is worth no more than Murton in all reality
3) If the trade includes more than any three of these guys: Murton, Gallagher, Marshall, Marquis, Fuld, Patterson, or Mateo----then there's no way you do it. Even Patterson I might not do. Roberts is in his 30's....We already have one high priced 30+ year old (Soriano) that is breaking down, and these speed guys, unless named Rickey Henderson or Lofton, usually begin to break down in their 30's. I'm tired of giving up on young talent, and I really want to see our guys start to come through, but they never can if we don't give them a chance.
4) Ceda, Pie, Veal?!?!? Are you kidding me?! Many have said that Veal will actually be better than Willis was, with more velocity on his fastball. Do we really want to give up another Dontrelle? We need Pie to come through, not just to validate our feelings about him, but to prove to other teams that our talent in our system can pull through----this WILL increase future trade value of our players.
5) Right now, we have four locks in our rotation: Z, Lilly, Dempster (as it stands right now), and Hill. That leaves an aging Lieber and mental midget in Marquis to battle for the 5th spot. Do we really need to be entertaining the idea of trading away major-league ready pitching talent for a part that we don't even need? As mentioned before, DeRosa is very capable of putting up the same numbers as Roberts, just without the steals. (though he does have health concerns now). If we really need a fall-back here, we already have it with Eric Patterson, who all have seen this ST, is very capable of being a spark. He has speed, versatility, and power. About the only thing he needs to do is cut back on K's, and it looks like he's made strides if you look at his stats last year. So other than the switch hitting factor, you aren't gaining much.
6) I hate to use a cliche, but some of the best moves that you can make, are not making the trades at all. Couldn't we have used Mitre, Nolasco, or Pinto in this trade? What about Moore, Cherry, and others that we've given up for nothing?
Anyway, that's just my take. If the Orioles demand more than say, Murton, Gallagher, and Cedeno, there's no way you do that trade. I'd prefer Murton, Marquis, and Cedeno. That's two major leaguers, and one yet-to-fill his promise guy. That would be VERY sufficient . In cases like this, I tend to reference recent trades to see bounties that were given up. All you have to do is look at the Cabrera and Willis trades to see what is sufficient....or even the Haren trade. Now those 3 players are class A difference makers. I'd classify Roberts as a class B. I don't think he warrants more than 3 players---2 major league ready, and a prospect. The Orioles are notoriously difficult to trade with, often asking for a king's ransom for their players. Why don't you ask the Astros now how they feel about the Tejada trade? The Orioles are SO unrealistic it's not even funny....They need help NOW in their rotation, especially with one of their main prospects out for the year now. So why wouldn't Marquis, Gallagher, and Cedeno be sufficient? If I were their GM, I'd jump at that. Marquis is an innings eater and very durable, Gallagher is a BIG prospect, and perhaps a change of scenery and coaching could benefit Cedeno...Okay, not Cedeno, I'd gladly take Murton (could the Cubs be that stupid? I'm getting a major league veteran pitcher who's still fairly young, a very nice pitching prospect, and a potential starting LF? LOL, I'm robbing them blind)
I think Hendry is THAT stupid that he would trade 5 of our best young players for Roberts.....
By the way, if you look at foxsports.com, they did an excellent piece a few days ago about how TERRIBLE of a GM Hendry has been for the Cubs, and how he should've been booted long ago.
When did Roberts start walking on water! So many comments like "guarantee a World Series". NOTHING is guaranteed! most say he would add 3 - 5 wins a year, Pie's defense would add that and Soriano added that with his bat last September! On my last post I mentioned 4 reasons against this trade and got dozens of reasons why I was wrong, but not one mentioned one of the most important - TEAM CHEMISTRY. I say again, just watch the Bulls!
Also, most of the outfielders mentioned in trade rumors may have one good characteristic but as a whole package are just journeymen ballplayers.Pie's defense is the best I've seen in my fifty years as a Cub fan and his offensive numbers will improve tremendously. Remember, the young man is just starting!
Roberts isn't Santana, A-rod blah, blah ,blah, that true
But he is a missing piece.
Having all the right pieces wins championships, not JUST A-rod types. You need to have a high level player or two. They are a piece as much as teh Roberts are.
We probably had the best team on paper in the NL last year, but didn't win. The Rockies did who probably, on paper, had the worse team in the playoffs. But they had the right pieces that came together at the right time.
My opinion is that Roberts will make everybody better because he is the right piece. And we need him now, not in 3 years. If we dont, then hopefully Pie can fill that spot in the line up within the next three years.
Aaron/Dave...
I agree as well. I don't fully get this love-fest with Roberts (atleast based on the potential price tag). Somewhere you have to hold your ground, and say "enough". The Orioles already fleeced us on the Traschel debacle (though who knows how those prospects turn). I agree that we should offer up Cedeno, Marquis, and Gallagher, and then say "take it or leave it".
No question that team chemistry is the key to sports (and business) succcess. The Yankees have proved that you can have high priced talent, but that doesn't guarantee the pennant. Conversely, the Braves had a great run of blending youth, the farm system, and select (team player) free agents, and all they did was win 13 division titles in a row. Taking it to the local basis, the Bulls dynasties indeed had the ultimate superstar, but the Bulls didn't win until role players got added who contributed and knew their place on the team.
I'm all for a Roberts trade, but at a reasonable and justifying price tag. This team now has this rumor hanging over their head, and this will now be the latest excuse as to why the team won't get out of the gate well in April/May.
You would think Hendry/Pinella would meke the trade or stop the nonsense behind it already.
This whole rumor debacle has been an embarrassment to both the Cubs and O's. Business leaders unable to negotiate and communicate effectively, thus sacrificing credibility and team morale in the process. It's a very sad display of awful business dynamics.
Raul, Aaron, Dave,
I'm in total agreement with you guys...except Aaron I don't quite have the animosity towards Hendry as you. While he's made some questionable moves he did get us Aram for Bobby Hill and was able to keep him.
It's funny how this potential Roberts trade has split this community right down the middle with neither side giving an inch.
I personally can't even imagine giving up so much for a lead off guy. Our best lead off hitter of my time was Bobby Dernier...I mean I loved that guy and wore #20 in every sport I played...but we never won a championship with him. I'ts always been and always will be Pitching...Pitching...Pitching!!!
The dude up above dismisses those players rumored in the trade,
Ceda- 21 years old and have heard can hit 100mph
Marshall-Valuable young lefty with Major league expirience
Gallagher- another young pitcher with a big upside
I mean they may not be in the rotation now but have we forgotten DEPTH?
Dempster hasn't been a starter since when? 5 years? 6? You think he's gonna hold up all year? What about Lieber? He gonna make it the duration? Thats just two senarios..come on we're Cubs fans, get real!
Aaron mentioned Patterson as well how do we not know by the time Derosa's time here is over Eric might be just as good if not better than Roberts, and WAY younger.
I hate trading young pitchers it's such a crap shoot and when does it ever pan out? People on this site have no problem with the Pierre trade and that just blows my mind. The jury is still out on Mitre, Nolasco, and Pinto but they're all still on the big club,( yes smart asses I know Mitre now has a strained forearm)and how'd we all like loosing the D-Train?
Roberts does not walk on water!
Here's a far-fetched idea fling (try saying that 10 times). I have a bad gut feel that Soriano is going to be quite the medical case moving forward. He's barely at 80% (which amazes me), and you can just foresee him trying to do something he shouldn't and reinjure that quad.
I frequently wonder why teams don't invest in full time off season trainers to work with the walking wounded, and to make sure they arrive to camp 100% healthy. Or why isn't a full time hitting instructor working with Pie all off-season v. Gerald Perry just visiting him twice (geez, it can't be that hefty cost of airfare).
I digress. So go ahead and trade our boy Soriano for Roberts and a top prospect of the O's. Releave yourself of 6 more years of the contract, and let a Hoffpauer, DeRosa or Murton have the left field job.
OK GUYS THE TIME IS NOW! WE NEED TO GET B. ROB TO CHICAGO! BECAUSE OUR WINDOW ISNT GETTING ANY BIGGER! ID SAY GIVE THE ORIOLES WHAT THEY WANT! ITS ONLY OBVIOUS THA ROBERTS AINT HAPPY WERE HES AT , IM SURE HED WANT TO GO TO A CONTENDER AND I SEE US AS THE ANGELS WHO WON THE CHAMPIONSHIP A FEW YEARS AGO GO CUBBIES 08 CHAMPS!
I agree that we should not trade Ceda or Pie for Roberts. But I believe we should make the trade: Gallagher, Cedeno, and something. If they'll take Marquis, that'd be great. I think you guys are looking at the wrong reason we need to make this trade. It's not stolen bases. It's not that Derosa is inadequate. It's OBP! That's the reason we needed Fukodome, that's the reason we need Roberts. 2005 .387; 2006 .347; 2007 .377. Also, adding Derosa to the bench makes up for what I see as a BIG problem right now, the shallowness of our team. That's just my take.
Cary,
That's a very interesting take and twist. I agree that Soriano is a DL candidate waiting to happen. And I would enjoy seeing Roberts OBP in place of Soriano's "all or nothing" contributions.
Soriano for Roberts?????? Umm, that is a joke right?
Aaron nice to hear from you again.
Aaron, Dave, Corey, Bryan, I completely agree with the "Team Chemistry" that is something that cannot be obtained through a trade or FA. Look at the D-Backs last year, no super stars, no huge batting averages, just played good team ball, something that this team is very capable of.
Aaron on your fifth point, if Dempster of Leiber don't cut it what would you think of Hart stepping in. He has really impressed me both last year and this year so far.
Damn Cary I like your style! That's a great take.
My thoughts were no joke. This group of posters is experienced enough to see a DL candidate in-waiting. Let's see how many games Soriano misses this year, or how diminished skill wise he'll be even when playing. And I'm personally tired of him constantly swinging at 55 foot fastballs.
The more I here about Soriono this year and his legs, the more I got to agree. Sooner or later he's going on the DL. If its too long then you can kiss any WS goodbye. Unless, We have some career years from more than a few players.
Also, the O's are trying to reem us. And I would agree that we are overpaying for a leadoff hitter. But that just shows how important Jim thinks a leadoff hitter is for us at this point. Go ahead an overpay a little but not too much.
We're all disagreeing on how important Roberts would be to this team compared to the importance of our prospects(Pie, Ceda, etc. etc.) But I think we all agree that we would like Roberts and we hope that the Cubs price for getting him is reasonable.
By the way, good discussion by everyone, good debate, and extremely good points by everybody.
This is probably making Neil extremely happy.
Also would like to mention, if Soriano loses his legs, he will have know choice but to move back in the lineup. Who will be our lead-off?? Theriot????
Wouldn't mind to see that only because I'm a big fan of his for his spunk and I would like to see him get the opprotunity. Before you say it, I'm not saying that he would be awesome in that spot, just would like to see him get the chance to shine.
Cary,
I wasn't joking I think it's a great idea and I also was wondering just why are his legs still not at 100%? I mean other than his age and the fact we made him financially set for life...and his grandkids....but he only feels comfy in the leadoff spot! ;)
Cary, I am going to have to respectfully disagree, if not for Soriano last year and the great september he had (On a Bum Leg), there is a good chance that we wouldn't have even made it to the playoffs. And the combination of Murton, Hoffpauir, and DeRosa, won't even come close to throwing out as many as Soriano did, or have the offense explosion he posseses. And now being in his second year at Wrigley I predict a better output, both defensively and offensively.
As far as Soriano being injured this year, I don't think it says anywhere that he is still hurt or only 85%. Actually in his last statement, he said he WAS 100%, but he is only going 85 to 90% and it is more of a phsycological thing than a physical thing. As far as I am concerned let him only go 85 to 90 percent the rest of spring so he is ready to go 100 pecent by the time the season starts.
Nick...that's why this site is so good. Everyone usually projects respectful opinions. I certainly appreciate and respect your view as well.
I believe that Pinella has classified Soriano as just going 85% or so, and that he's going to have to test it/go full throttle sometime next week. That makes it seem that there's a bit of doubt and concern among the braintrust. But I hope I'm wrong.
I'm realistic to know that Hendry won't pull a Soriano for Roberts+ trade, but I do think we have health exposure there, and a hefty contract to boot. Soriano had similar RBI's to DeRosa, and his OBP is really mediocre.
Cary, I agree, this is a great site for everyone express their opinions. I also respect your views.
You are right on the Soriano and DeRosa OBP and RBI's. I am hoping that this experiment with Soriano in the two hole works out. I think it will keep him healthier and give him alot more RBI opportunities. Also hopefully the new turf at Wrigley helps his legs out.
keep murton, play soriano in cf when pie has to sit because of lhp---trade for roberts, need lead-off hitter, another lhh in line-up
Holy Cow. Its getting heated over here. The only arguements I'm seeing is that "what if" the prospects are good. Well who cares? Mitre? Nolasco? are you serious? They would still be in the minors or signed with another team by now anyway. Then we come to Mr. Willis: The guy sucks! He had a few good years, whoopty do. Nobody is trying to claim that if we get Roberts we're guaranteed a championship, but he would be a step in the right direction. Team chemistry: has anybody heard of any sort of problem from Brian Roberts since he's been in the league? Well the Mitchell report, but aside from that, no. By all accounts he is a good clubhouse guy. I think DeRosa is man enough to shut his mouth and play wherever the heck Lou tells him to play. Mark is smart enough to know that Brian Roberts is a better 2nd basemen than he is.
Look nobody wants to give up Pie. He could become a very good player. He also could be a bust and never be able to hit at the big league level. We don't know yet. Keep in mind that Hendry doesn't want to trade him either. These pitchers though. The only one that has had success at this level (Marshall) is the only one that nobody seems to mind trading. Gallagher, Ceda, whoever the fact is that they probably won't be successful. They look like they have great potential, but who knows if they can take the next step. Look at how many minor league players each team has. How many of them make it to the bigs and have success? A very small percentage. My point is the team should do whatever they feel is the right move and not look back. If you give away an All-Star in the process, then so be it. It was a gamble and you lost, move on. If the Cubs give away some prospects, we're not giving away the future. Most of them won't be part of the future anyway.
The only question that matters is: Would the Cubs be a better team this year with Roberts or without him? I think they're better with him.
Go Cubbies!!!
Steve, that can never be the only question. The adjacent consideration always has to be "at what cost".
Great comments! Cary, bold statement on the Soriano/Roberts trade. Remember when the rumors swirled regarding Prior for Bedard? I personally thought it was the beginning of the end for Prior, that Cubs mgmt knew something was wrong with him.
Listen guys, I work with rehab patients all the time. Hamstring/Quad injuries take a long time to heal. It takes a good physical therapy program to get an athlete back to 100%, and that's if he ever gets there.
I never was a huge Soriano fan because of his lack of plate discipline. 70 RBI's last season? C'mon. yes, he missed significant time with the injury, and yes, he single-handedly won a few games for us in september, but so did Sammy Sosa for oh-so-many years, and the Cubs have nary a world-series appearance for all his "heroics."
All successful teams have a prototypical lead-off hitter. Soriano and his career OBP
That's the point. The cost is next to nothing. It based on potential.
How about this? There is a million dollars in cash sitting on one table and 3 potential business opportunities that could be worth ten million dollars on another table. Which do you want? I'll take the million in cash. I know what I'm getting that way. You could make more the other way, but you could also make nothing.
Go Cubbies!!!
OK then... time to reply to specific things... 3 in particular.
Aaron - everyone knows you hate Hendry - you've said it often and with enough venom that it's an unmistakable reality... but if you're going to point at things that back up your claim... like saying that there was an article over at foxsports.com that says how horrible a GM he's been, please provide a link. I went over there and did a search for Hendry and only got links for Jordan Hendry of the Hawks and an article from 2004 about a guy named Bobby Hendry that rushed for big numbers for Akron. No mentions of Jim Hendry. Although I'm sure they've HAD to have mentioned him by name in all that time - especially during the "Lilly from the cardiologist" thing last spring. I'd actually like to read the article, but I can't find it.
I'm all for conflicting viewpoints, but you have been consistent in making folks feel like their morons if they think Hendry's done a good job... You guys all know by now that I have a tendency to break things down at length (overly so sometimes), and there's a wikipedia entry for Hendry that lists all the moves he's made as GM of the Cubs... and actually the majority of the moves have been beneficial. Only a couple would I categorize as a "loss" for the Cubs. Pierre was one... but I'd categorize the Willis trade as a wash.
I judge a GM's effectiveness personally on the trades he's able to broker. Free agents are way too fickle a barometer... they often sign where they do for reasons completely out of the control of a GM.
To the "chemistry" folks - I agree completely actually. But my response there is why do you think Roberts will be a detriment to that? He's a clubhouse leader in Baltimore - which is why Angelos has his man-crush on him. During this entire three month trade process, he's been nothing but class in the way he's handled it. Other players in the past have come out publicly and chimed in on where they want to go and that ownership had better make it happen. The worst of those was Griffey and his trade from Seattle. First it was "trade me" then they made a trade and he came back and said "nope - not going there"... then another and "not going there either" - and he finally came out and said "trade me to Cincy - I'll ONLY play for Cincy." I take it as a sign of character that Roberts hasn't broken down in the three months this has been happening and said something like "you've gutted the team - trade me already - I don't want to be here." Instead he's going out and tearing up the pitching in the spring (of course to quote the manager from Major League it's "off a guy that'll be bagging groceries in a month" but still).
DeRo has been absolute class during this process... but so has Roberts. I have no doubt that they can coexist and thrive for the Cubs.
And the Dontrelle Willis folks with "how would you like to still have him?" argument.
All things considered, I'd rather have Derrick Lee... and since that's who we got in return I'm OK with having given up Dontrelle. Now that the league is figuring out his gimmick delivery (ala Fernando Valenzuela) his effectiveness has gone way down.
I could go on with all this :-) but I'll leave it there. I understand the points of all the folks on here that think the Cubs would be giving up too much... or even those that don't think he's needed... but I have my viewpoint. I think he makes the Cubs better. I think he's worth 5 wins over DeRo (let's say 4 for him and 1 for DeRo coming off the bench instead of Cedeno). I'm not talking his effect for the playoffs/world series because so much of that has to do with timing and luck - but it's GETTING to the playoffs first that is kind of a prerequisite for that kind of talk... and I personally feel that Roberts adds enough to the team to make us a solid favorite for the division over the Brewers. And that's for the next two years too - which just gives us enough time to develop more youngsters in the farm to replace those we trade away.
I got an great idea!!!!!
Lets organize a hostile takeover of the tribune company. Then we can take control of the Cubs and we can do whatever we want with them.
I got 10 bucks towards it.
Dontrell Willis sucks? Steve ignorant statements like that is why I didn't finish your rant and why usually I skip over all your posts. I would always take the chance with the opportunity for a greater windfall i'm not the gutless type. Thank goodness your not the GM.
Oh and we didn't get DeLEE for Dontrell. We lost Willis in the Alfonseca/Matt Clement deal. Yeah that was worth it!
Raul, I liked your article. I also don't want to make the deal for Roberts. Here are a few things I disagree with.
I think the difference between DeRosa and Roberts is bigger than it seems. DeRosa seems like a prime candidate to regress this year. While I don't think his power numbers should change (maybe even increase), I could easily see his OBP dip into the .340-.350 range. Roberts would likely benefit from a league switch, and while Camden is no pitchers park, Wrigley should help his numbers too. Posting their career numbers doesn't tell the whole story. Some of their projections for the upcoming year (PECOTA, ZiPs, etc.) have Roberts with only a decent edge in production, but it doesn�t take league change into account. Stolen bases are vastly overrated, but Roberts' speed is an asset. I'm not sure how the two compare on defense, as most rating systems are flawed and have them rated fairly close anyway. One benefit of an acquisition of Roberts would be hopefully keeping Theriot out of the 1/2 hole, something to like about the deal, haha.
The list of names of the players we'd give up for Roberts is somewhat misleading. Pie was talked about when this deal was first rumored seemingly forever ago, but there is no way he'd go the other way in this deal. Veal has been mentioned. I've also heard Tyler Colvin's name brought up, and I'd jump at the chance to deal him for Roberts. I'd like to hold on to Gallagher, but I'm not as high on Ceda as others and Marshall seems to lack durability and a permanent spot in the rotation. Murton, EPatt, and Cedeno are nice depth but appear to have no spots on the team either. I have no problem giving up most of these guys in the right deal, although I'll agree this isn't that deal. The farm system is mediocre, but it's no reason to hold up a deal helping the major league team. We should worry about restocking through the draft and overseas scouting, not by holding on to B/C level prospects.
Still, DeRosa is a solid 2B, and we have plenty of capable 2B backups (Fontenot, Patterson) if he needs to fill in at another position. No reason to give up assets for a position that doesn't need upgrading. We should have been targeting a SS to replace Ryan Theriot's poor bat and mediocre glove. If only DeRosa could still handle SS, we'd be a real solid team offensively. Hendry's 2B fetish cannot be stopped.
Why do you think Soriano's injury is worse than they're letting on?
Also, there is no assuming Fuld doesn't make the roster. Management has said it'll be either Pie or Fuld on the team, not both. It'll be Pie.
Dontrell was a thrown in to get the deal done.
I think we need Roberts because
1) I have a bad feeling about Soriano's leg problems continuing all season
2) There are a lot of home games in April and May - cold, wind blowing in - we need to play small ball early (and have the option all year)
We have to keep Pie because this will be his breakout year (I'm pretty sure Nostradamus predicted it - write before the world ends). The others cubbies mentioned in the trade speculation are fair game.
Also, could the O's interest in Hoffpauir be increasing? Why not include him in the deal?
Off the subject to a point what do you guys think about Leiber???
I think he will be a decent 5th starter. No I dont expect him to be like he was when he was with us originally but I think we will be pleasently surprised by him. Plus he can actually keep people at first with a good move which is something we dont have. Plus should throw strikes. Slow ones but strikes.
I got to defend Steve, Willis had a bad year last year and seems to be on his way done, you never know, with the league change he might find it again.
But at that time, it was the right move. We didn't have a closer and we needed another starter. Clements was a good(not great) starter for us while he was here and Alfonseca, even though he was no Lee Smith, did O.K. sometimes. But if I remember correctly, it was a middle of the season trade and we were desperate for a starter and especially a closer. And it wasn't like Trevor Hoffman was available in mid-July. Which of course we would of had to give up a Kerry Woods or a Mark Prior prospect if not both for that caliber of a closer. Which we would be having the same type of discussion then that we are now.
Nobody take any offense by this,
This isn't some Video game were you can trade nothing for an all-star.
The trade has to be benificial on both sides.
Quality for Quality.
And if your not willing to give up Majorleaguer's, then you got to give up prospects.
This is not a Salary dump. They want Major League ready prospects to play this season. That what its going to take. They got holes to fill just like we do.
thanks for the correction Cory about Dontrelle... it WAS him and Julian Tavarez for Alfonseca and Clement. That was a loss on our end. My bad.
But as for other deals...
The D Lee one was for Hee Seop Choi. Yeah - we really got fleeced there.
And the one for Ramirez and Lofton was for Bobby Hill and Jose Hernandez. Probably should have held onto the next Sandberg that Hill was going to be though.
And he managed to trade an Albatross (capital A) of a contract that was in place when he took over in Todd Hundley and turned it into Karros and Grudzie which both were contributers for the pennant winner that year.
And the four team deal that got us Garciaparra and Matt Murton cost us Francis Beltran, Alex Gonzalez, Brendan Harris, and Justin Jones. Brendan Harris had a decent season last year with the Rays, but nothing special and it took 4 years for him to do it. The other have pretty much never been heard from again.
Even as much love as folks are giving Ceda in the possible Roberts deal... he came over in a trade for Todd Walker.
Now this is NOT a "Jim Hendry is amazing" post... because he's not. The Pierre deal was just horrid... but mostly because he didn't insist on locking him up long term. I'm actually GLAD he didn't though because as much ground as he covers in center... he has a limp noodle for an arm.
The last couple of years... signing Lilly, Z, Fonzie, Fukudome, A Ram, Howry, DeRo... all good things.
Signing Marquis (even though he won 11 games), Burnitz, Jones... not so good.
Take this rundown though as an example of how the youngsters that you trade away to smaller market clubs like the Marlins, Pirates, or in this case the Orioles... MOST of them never pan out. Not some of them - MOST of them.
The Cubs are a big market club and as such - as long as the moves are moderately responsible - can afford to take on proven veteran players through trade or free agency at the expense of the "maybe" that comes along with prospects.
and to aaronb and jerljr - good comments :-)
I'll tell you something else,
If we dont give them quality then were shrewing them.
If we trade Pie or Gallagher, etc. etc. and they dont get what they need out of the players that we give them, then we aren't making very good business deals and will be looked down upon in the future by the rest of the league. Then in the future when we need to make a deal with them or someone else for something we really need, those teams might not exactly want to deal with us because they will be afraid that we'll screw them over again.
There was a trade many years back and I dont remember who it was, But the Cubs traded somebody and it turned out that the guy we traded was hurt adn couldn't play. Well there was a big rumbling about it. I dont remember who it was for the life of me right now. Maybe somebody can help me out. It was maybe 10 years ago or something like that.
You guys can all disagree with me I don't give a crap. But i'll go to my grave knowing the Pierre trade was bad and none of you can look yourself in the mirror and say your happy we gave away Dontrell.
GaryJ i'm the first to applaud the deal for Aram...I couldn't stand Bobby Hill he was a puke here in Des Moines so I don't know what that was all about. As far as The others DLee was a salary dump and Boston couldn't wait to get rid of Nomar. Like Jerljr said this is NOT. Thats what i'm wary of. Yeah we got Ceda for Walker and if he pans out that will prove my point and San Diego will look foolish.
I just think a team thats this close should not be willing to give up so much just to aquire a 2nd baseman....when the ones we have aren't that bad.
Man sorry to piss everyone off.
Dontrell was a single A prospect that was a thrown in at the end to get the deal done. How can you fault JH for trading him away.
No prob Cory - not ticked off... just respectfully disagreeing :-)
...but if you don't want to tick people off, perhaps leading off your comments with "I don't give a crap" isn't the best public relations move :-)
I've got no problem with you disagreeing with me though - it's your prerogative.
Brian Roberts can also steal bases. He is fast and can fill the hole at the top of the line-up which DeRosa can't do.
lol
Great day guys! There are so many spirited fans in here. I love it!! To put my 2 cents in the argument, I say get Roberts but only if we don't have to send Pie to the Orioles. I really don't care about any other youngsters or farmhands because I think most of them can be replaced in the next few years. I think Pie is the real deal and will have a very good year. I remember a kid named Sandberg that started out terrible but he turned out very well. It is too early to give up on Pie. I think he will be more important to the Cubs than Roberts will be. But I think our lineup with Roberts and Pie would be fantastic. It will improve our speed and defense and balance out some of the right handed bats we have. Hey like always, GO CUBS!
I say a GM is as good as his boss lets him be. Just ask Cashman/Billy Beane. Regardless of what has happened in the past..as of today JH has our Cubs in a very good position. 12 days to go and still it seems he is trying to get stuff done to improove the team. JH knows his time is up and I admire the fact that he has not depleted the farm that many describe as mediocre but we all know has real talent. Other GM's might have allready mortgage every bit when they know there is no tommorrow. I may not agree with some of the things he has done but he has sure surprised me every year. IMO the jury is still out.
One more thing remember how Pujols came out of nowhere in a late draft to become a superstar? This Hoffpauir kid has got me thinking..what if??? One thing is certain; He is coming out of nowhere....!
I've been waiting all day for someone to say something I COMPLETELY agree with...
And the winner is... Gramps. Great post from a very wise fan.
All the other prospects can be replaced in the next few years. Pie needs to either break out or burn out as a cub. Personally I think it will be the former.
To those who say ship out Pie and bring in someone else i.e. Lofton, that seems like a sacrifice on the defensive end of things. Pie brings a great deal of talent on D and it would be a disservice to the faithful to see him go elsewhere.
Okay Cory, Dontrelle doesn't suck, but he's not all that great either. Yes, in 2005 he was insanely good. Aside from that year he has been above average and certainly nothing to still be bitter over. I guess I was more pointing to last season and the fact that moving to the AL will most likely hurt his numbers even more. However, at the time of the trade, Alfonseca was a hot commodity and Clement turned out to be a nice find for a couple years. Getting them was well worth a head case and some single A prospect. It turned out in the long run to be in the Marlins favor, but initially it worked out good for us. The main point is, who cares? We made the move and its done. Yeah, Alfonseca was a bust, but Clement was a nice little pitcher for us.
Cory, we are just on opposite sides of the spectrum on the prospect issue. You would like to hang on to them and see what happens. I'm usually for that as well. When you have the opportunity to get an All-Star though, then I'm more than happy to take the gamble. I don't want any of these guys to go either, but you need to give up something to get something. We are right on the edge of a championship caliber team. If there are any ways to upgrade the team further, I'm all for them. All of this is pretty much educated gambling and you don't know who won for a few years. Which is why its such a heated issue. I want the same thing as everyone else here. A champion.
Go Cubbies!!!