First and foremost, thank you CCO readers for your continued patronage and commitment. Our website is growing and in order to keep up with the demands, we are adding a new element....PODCASTS. This will give you the chance to not only read the thoughts of our writers, but also to hear them, when you choose. We are very excited about this development and look forward to hearing your thoughts. We hope you find these entertaining and enjoyable.
Stay Classy Cubs Fans!
"Now You Can Listen to the CCO" - CCO Cubs Podcast
Click Here to Download the first CCO Podcast. After downloading you should be able to import this mp3 file into iTunes and load onto your iPod or iPhone.
From the Rumor Mill
Just a couple of quick notes from the rumor mill courtesy of Bruce Levine.... Jim Hendry is still looking for a right-handed option for the outfield. Levine said the Cubs would need this for about 40 games in center and be able to fill in for Kosuke Fukudome from time to time. Texas has not said "no" but has not said "yes" either on Marlon Byrd.
Levine said Jay Payton could be an option, either in an expanded deal for Brian Roberts or in a separate deal. On the Roberts front, Levine said Hendry is still very interested and could be done in the next week or so. As far as Andy MacPhail's self-imposed deadline, Levine thinks the "real deadline" is more like February 15th....that is when the Orioles reports to Spring Training.
Levine talked about Coco Crisp and the possibility of the Cubs trying to trade for him. He said Crisp is owed about $8 million dollars over the next two seasons. Levine indicated the Cubs could not afford to pay that amount for a part-time player, especially one that does not view himself as a part-time player. Crisp still wants to play everyday and probably would not accept the role of a bench player. The Cubs need a player that can contribute and also know his place on the team.
Enjoy the Podcast!
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Freaking sweet guys! To cool! Podcasts from the CCO! Agustin youre extreme. Thanks for the info. About to catch a game now.
Started listening to the podcast and planning on finishing it tomorrow (it's getting late) but I'm loving it!
Brian Roberts news and a thought....
From links to other articles over at MLBTR, both Jayson Stark and Ken Rosenthal doubt that Pie is part of a Roberts deal at this point... but Rosenthal notes that if the O's take on Marquis and his salary, then they have the right to ask for a little more.
The thought is this...
Did MacPhail end up shooting himself in the foot with his deliberate approach?
We've already had one deal that looked like waiting to evaluate offers was a bad move by the GM with the lesser-than-expected haul for Santana. The longer the deals stayed on the table, some of the suitors just gave up (Yankees) and others pulled back players (Red Sox) leaving the Mets able to swoop in.
Does it seem like the offers kept growing and growing there for a while... but as we get closer to spring training and as teams resign themselves to having the components in place that they're heading into the season with... there just seems to be a whole lot less competition out there for Roberts somehow. And as such, the rumor mill has gone from Pie, Gallagher, and Marshall to only one of the two pitchers but not both, Pie staying, and maybe them taking on Marquis.
I'm not complaining mind you - but the declining nature of the rumors and the evidence about the market from the Santana deal might mean that the Cubs could end up paying a much lower price than we originally thought.
You may want to post the podcasts in MP3 format and burn your feed with feedburner, which allows the feed to be podcast friendly.
MacPhail says the O's roster changes aren't slow and they aren't fast. I'd say they're half fast. And the JH process isn't fast either. You wonder if slowwwww explains what the plan was all along.
Andy finally does the Bedard for Jones, Sherrill, + + + deal. Then the slow boat to Chicago arrives with Roberts, Sherrill and Payton. MacPhail gets the lefty reliever JH wanted him to get from the Mariners and Lou gets his all star table setter, his reliable lefty reliever and his versatile outfielder.
JH sends the O's Marquis and $5 million essentially for the aging Payton's $5 million contract. The O's have a veteran pitcher at a modest $5.5 million per for two years.
For Roberts, the O's get Cedeno, Hart, Ceda and Fuld. And DeRo gets to bite on his lip--at least for awhile.
And JH gets to tell Andy, "You put me through an ordeal like this again and the next hit man I'm sending you is Guido (Da Finale) Carlucci!" If MacPhail doesn't get the Bedard deal done, the Faithful send Guido to meet up with Andy.
Loved the Guido Carlicci reference :-)
I just saw the PECOTA on Marmol has his projected ERA at 4.06 ... not good news. While of course it's just a projection, PECOTA is very well respected and considered one of the best projection systems out there.
This is without a doubt the best site on the whole interweb. Spectacular work.
I wondered what the heck is a PECOTA? If you Google that, Wikipedia has a lengthy piece on the advanced math and science techniques for measuring performance variables that lead to a computer program that is used for predicting performance. It's named for the infielder Bill Pecota--whose performance didn't seem to merit that much attention as I remember it. The techniques and formulas are secret, says Wikipedia and in a book that one can purchase. Which leads me to wonder if what PECOTA is really about is $19.99.
Just kidding, David--and I've come to appreciate that no one on this site surpasses your library of vital information. I'm hoping that you get or have the book and that you can find us a John Koronka that turns out to be Johan Santana or a Bobby Hill that turns out to be Rhyne Sandberg. Pull that off and you get a monument next to Ernie's.
JimK,
I need to rely on the "experts" cause my own projection skills are pretty poor as evidenced by the 1000s of Mike Schooler, William Brennen and Darryl Hamilton rookie cards I invested in in the late 80's.
Brian McCabe,
Nice job on the podcast. My Firefox played it just fine this time. I had some problem playing the Cubs Convention recordings. I'm guessing the Java is bad, but well, I need a browser guru to help me out...
******
JimK,
Let's talk baseball and trades. Baseball Prospectus had a nice article about what the Twins got for Santana:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7089
Goldstein's last two points are very inspiring,
1. supply-and-demand does not favor GM Smith, with only 2 teams able to trade Santana and willing to pay his fat, long, (risky) contract.
2. GM Cashman and Epstein weren't really offering any big names (Hughes, M.Cabrera, Ellsbury, and Buchholz--most likely all of them "untouchable" right now), leaving Smith less to get but from the Mets.
The second point was proved valid; let's see what Yanks owner Stein said to NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/03/sports/baseball/03yankees.html?ex=1354338000&en=ec2c7f758d83ffc5&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
What do all these info tell us about Roberts?
1. Roberts' contract goes into 2009 with 8 M. He'll ask that 6-years $$$ 110,000,000 very soon, because that's how much he's worth NOW if on a free agent market. Only the Cubs have a need and a budget for his service.
2. The Cubs can't offer anything better than Vitters and Marshall into the package. I seriously doubt any other buyers want to trade their Big League-ready or B+ prospects right now. The Orioles could well wait into postseason-2008 before making a move on Roberts.
At the end, I 'm seeing the picture a little different from the Santana4 prospects deal. The demand is just as thin on Roberts like on Santana, but the price is not.
Unlike Santana, Roberts won't have the Players Association behind him and his agent trying to break a record contract. Roberts will be worth a lot in 2009, but as much as Soriano was in 2006. Yet, a roster spot for the OBP-machine is much more worth than a few million bucks in professional baseball.
Roberts still have 2 years of his undervalued contract, and I would say a deal equal to the kind of Vitter(infielder, or pitcher) +Marshall(pitcher) +infield-tool for Roberts is still a good idea for both the Cubs and the O's.
But I really cannot say that we have better prospects to place on the table, unlike the Mets compared to what the Red Sox or the Yanks were willing to offer.
Unable to get the podcast feed. anyway, it was a good read.
I just remembered something: Though OBP is on the math more valuable than slugging power or Isolated Power, a GM's negotiating power comes when he can claim a shortstop without raw power that generates homers (i.e. Brian Roberts) is looking at a Lugo's (OPS+ 88/90 or at best Reyes (OPS+ 97)' contract on a progressive scale. So we are looking at Roberts (OPS+ 102) with a market value of 11-15 M.
Sounds fair, which also means that more teams will be eager to bid. No wonder why MacPhail is waiting for the market to open up more (maybe into midseason).
Dorasaga...This response could be iffy. The 2nd half of the Super Bowl just started, and I answered the "beer man" 3 times in the first half. We agree that Santana's huge contract made the players or prospects secondary--which I mentioned a few days ago. My take is that the Twins got an above average center fielder and that one of the pitchers will do well and another will make the Twins roster. That's not bad in the circumshances. But the Yanks did offer Hughes and Cabrera according to Steinbrenner in the article you mention and that was OK too.
If the O's want Vitters, there won't be a trade for Roberts. And my gurss is that Roberts doesn't get the number of players that an ace like Haren got. If Roberts could hit 30 + home runs like Kent, and was doing a deal at age 28, he might get 6 years and $75 mil.
I did a quick check for the pay of top middle infielders that fall below Jeter and Kent. Hudson signed for $6 mil for 2008 and Rollins is making $8 mil a year. Roberts is under contract for 2 more years, and then I'm guessing he might get a 4/5
years at $8 to 10 mil. assuming he plays close to what he did last year.
I see your point about cheaper existing contracts being more valuable in terms of players. I'm guessing that high OBP second basemen get less "respect" than OPS guys and ace pitchers. We don't have to trade Hill, Vitters, or Marmol. I'm not sure about Pie. For the Cubs, there are alternatives to Roberts. Time will tell.
So the NY Giants prove that it isn't always the best team that wins, but the team with the right momentum at the right time. It's the beauty of sports...you just never know the outcome.
Hey Guys,
Congrats on the pod cast, very cool!!
JimK,
Good research. But the problem here is, there's a Lugo making 8-9 M per season and Roberts ALREADY has his 8 M at the end of contract 2009. Therefore on a progressive note, if he keeps up his 400 OBP and 40 steals, why he, or any player with this caliber, should be happy with what he already had, when he can earn more?
Though on a conservative side of this count, a contract-offer underlines issues, such as the club's fiscal health, player supply-and-demand (Goldstein already explained this well in my above link), and the macro-economy.
If American economy is wanning and fans aren't willing to pay that 30% increase of ticket price and other inflated sale in the ballpark, why would Hendry and the Co. risk signing a 6 year/75 M deal?
And even looking from this conservative side, I still see this alternative along the line of a 9-10-11-11-12 M +option for 5 years+ (less than 11M/yr), more feasible for a like of Roberts.
The problem NOW for the Cubs is what do the O's want from us? They traded Tejada for 5 former Astros with 3 pitching prospects. Now the Bedard trade with M's seems to come to an end. Guess what? More and better pitching prospects filling up the old O's farm.
The Cubs package of Marshall and Gallagher looks pale now. I don't see much that the O's need out of here, and let's not be surprised if the O's decide to keep Roberts for another 6 years...
Joe, thanks for the tip.
Awesome :) . I've tried it myself and It took me 2 hours to get the same result!