The first full squad workout is scheduled for later today as the last few position players reported to Fitch Park on Monday. The biggest surprise from Day 5 of Camp Lou was the Cubs signing Alex Cintron to a minor league deal. Rumors began to circulate the signing of Cintron was a precursor to a bigger deal involving a certain middle infielder but Jim Hendry shot down all of the speculation. According to a report in the Tribune, with Ronny Cedeno splitting time between the infield and outfield this spring, Hendry felt they needed more depth in the infield.
In other news, Kosuke Fukudome continues to make headlines in the mainstream media. Phil Rogers continues to doubt the decision the Cubs made to let Mark Prior walk but likes what he has seen from Fukudome. And just a few days after Kerry Wood was mentioned as the favorite to land the closer's job, Lou Piniella said Bobby Howry currently is the front-runner to be his closer.
As Spring Training kicks into high gear today, here is a look at the rest of the roster....
The Infield
Lou Piniella's infield appears to be set entering Spring Training....of course barring "the trade" that continues to receive so many headlines. The rumors of Brian Roberts being traded to the Cubs have outlived the Hot Stove season and will likely continue throughout Spring Training. The Cubs signing Alex Cintron on Monday did nothing but further the speculation of a deal being completed at some point with Baltimore.
The Cubs have two of the best infielders in the National League in Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee, not only offensively but defensively as well. As long as those two remain healthy, Lou Piniella's only problem on the corners should be finding the right compliments in order to schedule those all-important days off. Both Lee and Ramirez should hit more home runs than a year ago....while solo home runs count, long-balls with runners on base are always better.
Up the middle is where there are questions. Mark DeRosa is coming off a very good year, one in which he was arguably the Cubs' first half MVP. As of February 19th, DeRosa figures to get most of his playing time at second base and Ryan Theriot will be Piniella's Opening Day shortstop.
Derrek Lee
While Lee's power numbers were down last season, he had a strong finish (.365/.431/.654/1.085 with 7 home runs, 9 doubles and 14 RBI's) and should show more power with a full year under his belt after breaking his wrist in 2006. Lee finished last season with a .317/.400/.513/.913 line with 22 home runs, 43 doubles and 82 RBI. His MVP caliber season of 2005 featured a line of .335/.418/.662/1.080 with 46 home runs, 50 doubles and 107 RBI's. If Lee could finish 2008 with a line somewhere in the middle, the Cubs will win a lot of games. PECOTA predicted a .303/.387/.527 season for Lee with 25 home runs, 34 doubles and 91 RBI's.
Aramis Ramirez
The two biggest questions that have always surrounded Aramis Ramirez....his health and hustle. 'The RBI Machine' had a tremendous 2007 season and always seemed to get the big hit when his team needed it the most. Ramirez has enough talent to compete for an MVP Award, but he must remain healthy for an entire season and get off to another strong start.
Mark DeRosa
DeRosa's biggest value to Lou Piniella is a super-utility man but it is hard to argue the fact he has earned a starting job. DeRosa had a great first year with the Cubs, despite all of the double plays, both in the field and at the plate. Losing Mark DeRosa could be as big a blow to the Cubs chances this season as losing one of the big three.
If the Cubs do in fact pry Brian Roberts from Baltimore, how DeRosa responds will have a huge impact on this team.
Ryan Theriot
Lou Piniella's 'spark plug' said numerous times throughout the winter that he changed his training regiment. Many have blamed Ryan Theriot's September swoon on the physical demands of a Major League schedule. And there could be a little truth to those statements. While Theriot finished with a .266/.326/.346/.672 line in his first full year, a closer look at his numbers do reflect a pattern of fatigue. Theriot had a respectable April (.299/.347/.328/.676) and May (.256/.330/.367/.697) but struggled in June as the second half came to an end (.224/.272/.276/.548).
Theriot started the second half with his best month of the year. In July Theriot's line was .348/.437/.483/.920, dropped in August (.276/.315/.353/.668) and plummeted in September (.202/.257/.263/.520).
Many called for Theriot to be replaced in the starting lineup all winter, but if he can build on last year, he would be a solid hitter at the end of the lineup. Theriot has proven he is a team player....first and foremost. Remember in the NL, the 8th place hitter's ability to flip a lineup is a very valuable piece of the puzzle.
Where's the Utility?
Ronny Cedeno has shown he can hit in the winter and in the spring, it is when the third deck is added that he has his problems. With Cedeno out of options, he will make the team or be traded....it is highly unlikely Jim Hendry would just let him go. Daryle Ward showed his value last season and will likely be Piniella's only power threat off the bench....unless Micah Hoffpauir really makes an impression. Mike Fontenot has been counted out his entire career and once again appears to be on the outside looking in.
The Storylines of the Spring
- Derrek Lee's power stroke
- The health of Aramis Ramirez
- Brian Roberts....A Cub or Not?
- Ronny Cedeno....Utility Man or Trade Bait
- The starting job at second base
- Micah Hoffpauir
- Bobby Scales
- Alex Cintron
The Outfield
Lou Piniella could end up having the most athletic Cubs' outfield in recent memory. Not only can the projected starting outfield of Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome and Felix Pie provide solid defense but they figure to hit the ball with regularity as well. While on paper the Cubs' outfield appears to be set, unfortunately there are several question marks.
- Alfonso Soriano's legs
- How Kosuke Fukudome adjusts to life in the Major Leagues
- Can Felix Pie hit at the big league level?
Jim Hendry is still looking to add a right-handed bat into the outfield mix that can play all three outfield spots. Ronny Cedeno will get a look but his inexperience could be costly when the games actually count. Hendry was rumored to be interested in Marlon Byrd, but the Rangers are looking for more than Matt Murton in return. Hendry has stated Piniella needs a right-handed option to platoon with either Felix Pie or Sam Fuld and recently stated he is looking for a little more pop out of that bat than Cedeno can provide.
Piniella said Matt Murton could be the Cubs 4th outfielder and start from time to time in right and left but Murton cannot provide any depth in centerfield.
Alfonso Soriano
Alfonso Soriano will not have to learn a new position this spring, which is a plus, but his nagging leg injuries from last year could put a damper on the slugger's second season on the North Side. Soriano is still Piniella's best option in the leadoff spot, unless a certain middle infielder is acquired, but if Soriano cannot run....how effective will he be?
Soriano proved last season he can field his position now he must remain healthy and off the DL.
Kosuke Fukudome
The early reports from Mesa on the Cubs' new right fielder are very encouraging. Piniella reportedly likes what he has seen in the cages and on the field from Kosuke Fukudome. There were concerns, since the signing, if Dome would arrive to camp fully recovered from last year's surgery....those doubts seem to have been eliminated. It appears the other question will be addressed once the Cactus League schedule starts next week.
Felix Pie
Pie has been dubbed the future of the Cubs for the last couple of years and the starting centerfield job is now Pie's to lose. Felix Pie has all of the tools and showed last year he is more than capable in the field but at the plate is where he struggles.
Lou Piniella's patience with Pie could end up being the most important part of his development. Pie just turned 23 (February 8th) and is a proven winner....now he just has to be given time to hit.
The Battle for the Fourth
Oneri Fleita said during the Cubs Convention that Eric Patterson has been the forgotten man during the off-season. Fleita added he fully expects Patterson to compete for the centerfield job and both sides have gotten past what happened last year (Patterson showed up late to the park and was sent back down to the minors). Patterson had just 2 hits in 8 bats in his first 7 games at the big league level but had a very good year at Triple-A (.297/.362/.455/.817 with 28 doubles, 14 home runs and 24 stolen bases).
Matt Murton has value in the big leagues but simply does not fit with the Cubs. Murton needs to play on an everyday basis and recently commented he does not see himself as a bench player. Murton could end up being the right-handed version of Daryle Ward for Lou Piniella depending on how Felix Pie and Sam Fuld perform.
Sam Fuld had a solid season in Double-A and Triple-A last year but made headlines with the catch of the year. Fuld impressed in the Arizona Fall League, won the MVP and, from all accounts, will battle Felix Pie for the job in center. Fuld could be a very good 25th man on a Major League roster but if Pie's offense is a concern....Fuld's is non-existent at the big league level. In 14 games last year, Fuld made it to the plate 9 times....3 walks, 3 runs scored, 3 strikeouts and no hits.
The Storylines of the Spring
- Alfonso Soriano's health
- Kosuke Fukudome's adjustment
- Can Felix Pie hit?
- Will Sam Fuld perform the way he did in the AFL?
- Can Eric Patterson make noise in centerfield?
- Josh Kroeger and Andres Torres
- Matt Murton....4th Outfielder, Trade Bait or Triple-A?
The Cubs first game of the Cactus League schedule is next Thursday, February 28th against the Giants in Scottsdale. The next 39 days should be very, very interesting....
2008 Spring Training Articles from the CCO
MacPhail and Roberts, in press discussions, are saying that Roberts being traded has been discussed. MacPhail says that Roberts has made no demands but that he is curious about his future. Roberts, besides apologizing again for his "one-time" encounter with steroids, says he thinks about the advantages of playing for a contender. MacPhail says that nothing appears imminent, and that he and the scout staff will discuss "team surplusses" by month end to discuss ways to improve the team.
My take is that a Cubs--O's deal is on the table--but Andy is holding out for more. JH is saying "No Mas!" My guess is that JH adds an A-AA level guy not in our top 15 list (like Reynolds or Lansford), and the deal gets done within a week. We lose Cedeno, Marshall, Gallagher and Ascaino, and we get Roberts and Sherrill.
Reading Neil's informative report, you realize that Lee, Rameriz and Soriano just have to stay healthy and be near peak form for the Cubs to win 90.
JimK - I don't even think peak form from Lee, ARam, and Fonzie is a necessity for 90 wins because quite frankly Fonzie and Lee weren't at peak form last year and we still managed 85 wins. Health would be a nice change though. It's a key for every team every year, but it's not like we were overly blessed in the health department last year and still had success.
There weren't any season ending biggies (other than "the employee") so that was a blessing, but last year Lee was battling his wrist, Fonzie his legs, and ARam all the little dings that he seems to collect... and the Cubs still won 85. And that was without any sort of power numbers whatsoever from Fonzie or DLee to start the year.
So they weren't at peak most of the year and we still had success.
If they stay healthy, their performance will improve enough to eek out another 5 wins. Add to that another year of experience for Hill (we're entering the mysterious third year where starters all of a sudden seem to "get it" when it comes to putting it all together), the ability to play small ball when needed with the added speed of Pie and Fuku (and hopefully Roberts and some healthy wheels for Fonzie) and 90 wins seems well within reach.
Just remember - we've improved in the offseason too - maybe not as much as some of the faithful would like, but we ARE a better offensive team starting this season (Soto and Fuku specifically - jury's still out on Pie - and Roberts would be nice but I'm not going to believe it until it happens). Plus Lee is another year removed from major wrist surgery and Fonzie has been instructed to take it easy all winter and this spring to stay ready for the season.
I'm SO ready to play ball! :-)
Gary J...I think one thought we share is "If they stay healthy." And you are right, we are improved the way we look right now. One of my fearless predictions is that Hill wins 15 games. Another is that Soto is a strong defesive catcher and drives in 80 runs. On the negative, I fear Eyre will be released by May 15.
I think the top 6 NL teams are all going to be better this year, and the bottom 6 are going to be a lot worse. So we will need very strong September and October play from our studs to be memorable in October. Teams like the Pirates, Natonals, Marlins, Giants, and Astros could all win fewer than 65 games. We have to dominate them, because our main competiton likely will. I'm looking at holding our own against the good teams like the D-backs, Mets and Rockies and having slight edges over the Dodgers, Reds, and Braves.
JimK...I also agree. While just a rookie, I personally believe Soto will be a major force in '08 and beyond. He'll be a major upgrade defensively, and should likely deliver 15 HR's and your 80 RBI's. That could be huge v. what we had last year. I really see Soto being a blend between Ivan Rodriguez and Mark McCain. I just see lots of all star selections in his future (health assuming).
So regardless of Pie's contributions, just Soto and Fukodome will bring BIG dividends both offensively and defensively.
Great upside possibilities. I am just thrilled we got rid of all the aging veteran retreads. That in itself is so refreshing...and can be attributed directly back to Pinella.
Last year's team was a better team than 85 wins, but you can say that about a lot of teams we've had (in terms of not playing to our potential). I think this year has more questions than last year though. Will Fukudome's success translate to MLB, will Soto be able to have a solid year offensively, who's playing center, will Lee mash again, will Alf get his legs back, will Hill pitch like he should, who's going to be our number 3 and 5, will Kerry stay healthy (please, please do!), and who's going to be our closer???? Sure, Lou knows the team better, but I don't remember thinking this much going into last year's season. I have a hard time believing Soto is going to hit 15HRs and 80RBIs...I mean, I'd love it, we'd win 100 games if he could do that, seriously, but come on...Not trying to be a downer, trust me, I said Hill would win 18 games if he's our number four, but I said that thinking he would be a number four because we picked up someone good...not Jon Leiber....but, we'll see. I just want to fast forward to the season.
Lows...I'm with you on who is our #3 pitcher. I say it's Dempster or Hart in the 5 hole and whoever it is goes 11-9 with a 4.24 era--not 4.20 or 4.30 but 4.24. Dempster will be a pleasant surprise.
But you haven't thought enough about Soto. Last year in 18 games and 54 at bats, he hit .389 with 3 hr. And he led the team in slugging % at .667. Soto would have to go into a slump not to do as well as Gary J, Bryan and I are suggesting.
Trust me, I really hope he dominates, but lets not forget the partial year Theriot had...53 games, 134 ABs, .328 with 11 doubles, and we all crapped ourselves saying he was the next and maybe better version of Eckstein. Well a year later it seems everyone wants him out of the lineup replaced by Derosa after a Roberts trade. Personally I think Theriot is much better than he played last year, but nowhere near the player, average-wise, that we saw in limited action in 06. Soto played in only 18 games, he was definitely hot and compared to the absolute turds we had all season behind the dish, it is easy to go nuts about the guy...but I will be thrilled if he catched 120 games and hits .275 with 10 bombs, getting maybe 65 RBIs batting 7th. I'll be happy with that. I think you're setting yourself up for a big letdown, but at the same time, I really hope I'm eating my words come October!
He's no Rick Wilkins or anything... :^D
30HRs and a .303 BA in '93...then he came back to reality for the rest of his career.
In all reality, here's why I think he won't be the offensive powerhouse we're dreaming of...
1)His offensive numbers were crazy! He was truly hot at the time he put them up.
2)Catchers tend to wear down, especially a young guy with no prior experience or idea of what kind of toll 120+ games will take on him.
3)He's kinda fat anyway, so he'll be even more tired.
4)I'm trying ditch the fan goggles....
lows, i dont know what has gotten you so down on the cubbies, but Soto could be real great this year behind the plate...and it seems as though he has kept in shape, very much like when he came into the major last year and played very well during his call-up and against AZ
Soto WILL BE a major improvement over Barrett, Kendall, and Hill from last year, both offensively and defensively. Which will directly benefit our pitching staff. Also, remember, we should have one of the fastest and effective outfields that the Cubs have seen in decades. Our pitching staff finished 4th in the NL last year with the improved defense from the catcher position and the overall defensive improvement in the outfield it will probably cut another .5 off our overall team ERA.
Any additional offense Geovany or Felix give us will be icing on the cake!!!!