This off-season is like no other in recent memory. With just over two weeks until pitchers and catchers report, several teams, including the Cubs, are still looking to improve their roster. There are several big names left on the trading block, including Johan Santana, Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts. One of those names looked to have a new home for the upcoming season, but several reports on Monday denied there was a deal in place that would send Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for a package of players....including one of the top prospects in the game, Adam Jones. While the Cubs were rumored to be interested in Bedard, many felt Jim Hendry did not have enough to send Baltimore for both Bedard and Roberts.
The key to this deal being approved appears to be Orioles' owner Peter Angelos. According to a report by Ken Rosenthal on Monday night, the deal for Bedard is on hold and may be off "due to the involvement of O's owner Peter Angelos." This development does affect a possible deal that would send Brian Roberts to the North Side. Angelos has the reputation of being very difficult to deal with, and the latest developments have not done anything to change the public perception of the Orioles' owner. From all indications, the Cubs are still very interested in trading for Roberts, but as everyday passes it appears Angelos might not be willing to approve any deals.
Here is the latest from the Cubs and around the league, including notes and quotes from Crane Kenney on Waddle and Silvy....
Crane Kenney on Waddle & Silvy
For the entire interview, click on this link and download the MP3 Podcast.
Crane Kenney was on Waddle & Silvy on Monday morning and discussed a variety of Cubs topics. Kenney talked about the impending sale of the team and stadium. He reiterated most of what he discussed during the Cubs Convention. They are looking to complete the stadium deal first and mentioned how important it was for the Cubs to play at Wrigley in the foreseeable future.
Kenney was asked about how much influence Sam Zell has on player decisions. Kenney explained that he and Jim Hendry agreed to a budget in the fall. Kenney said he is responsible for the team but he is not making baseball decisions. That is Hendry's job. Kenney said he is responsible for the PNL's.
Kenney was asked if the Cubs could go after Johan Santana and the next several minutes were very interesting. Kenney said the following:
"Jim's hard at work. There are a couple of transactions he would like to get done. Both of them are pretty high profile. From a business sense, when I started with the team, my first year our payroll was just below $80 million dollars. Five years later, I think everyone is projecting our payroll to be north of $120 million. It is good for business for us to increase payroll. It's good for business for us to win the division. It's good business for us to win the World Series.I've been pushing Andy and John and I think they both believed it as well. I can't tell you whether Jim is trying to get Johan Santana. It would obviously deplete our system quite a bit if you were. The other two transactions I like a little better than making one big splash with one pitcher that pitches every fifth day."
Kenney was asked if Hendry was close on the two deals.
"Let's put it this way. We've put enough on the table that both of them, I believe, should get done. But you only control one half of the equation. The other guy has to say yes. Sometimes deals don't get done, not because you didn't try, just because they didn't match up."
The Cubs
A report in the Chicago Sun-Times indicated the White Sox could be looking to trade Brian Anderson to a National League team. Rotoworld speculated one of those teams could be the Cubs.
Dayn Perry has been very busy over the past few days penning several new reports. On Sunday, Perry talked about what players "carry heavy burdens in '08". Number six on his list Kosuke Fukudome. Perry also caught everyone up on what has gone on this off-season. Again, number six on his list, Kosuke Fukudome. Perry thinks the signing of Fukudome "may be the one that allows the Cubs to make back-to-back trips to the postseason for the first time since Teddy Roosevelt was president."
According to a report in the Houston Chronicle, "the NL Central has nowhere to go but up." Zachary Levine talked about all six of the clubs weaknesses last year and what they have done to improve this off-season. The Cubs biggest problem they must improve on....the National League worst .640 OPS from the shortstop position. Ryan Theriot's OPS last season was .672.
A report by Mike Nadel indicated the Cubs' task is much easier than the Sox's.
From Around the League
The Phillies agreed to a 2-year deal on Monday with Pedro Feliz, pending a physical.
The Red Sox traded two minor league pitching prospects to the South Side on Monday for David Aardsma. The former Cub was DFA'd by the White Sox last week.
Staying with the former Cub news.... Todd Wellemeyer agreed to a 1-year deal with St. Louis on Monday worth $1 million dollars and avoided arbitration.
According to a report in the Seattle Times, the Mariners have a deal in place for Brad Wilkerson but they are holding off until the Erik Bedard deal is done.
Finally....the newest clip of Kosuke Fukudome ended up in my RSS feed reader, but a hat tip must go to the guys at Home Run Derby who ran the clip on Monday. Here is a another video of Fukudome's cannon....
Subscribe
So if it's not a pitcher and we assume BR is one of the 2 moves than who is the 2nd. Figgins?
Re: 2 moves
I think BR is one of the moves. Lucky for the Cubs that not too many clubs are after 2nd basemen or him in particular this off-season. The Indians can't/won't outbid us on this one. I truly believe this one will happen.
I am crossing my fingers the other move is with Brian Sabean for a strong, young right handed pitcher who is locked up through 2010 (Cain). This team is old and showing no signs of competing in a very strong NL west (their fans are freaking out from reading blogs and knowing some friends there). Also of note, they just lost Pedro Feliz officially to the Phillies yesterday leaving a gaping hole at 3rd base. Take a look at this depth chart:
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/teams/depth-chart/SF
My guess is Blanton or Crisp (if Pie goes as part of the package for Roberts) for the second deal. Figgins would cost ARam so I don't think that will or should happen. The Giants turned down Rios for either Cain or Lincecum and we don't have a young hitter better than Rios so I don't think that one will happen either. Cain is a future #1 starter so the Giants would be foolish to deal him ... and I think Sabean knows that.
Move 1 is a deal for Roberts and Patton (young lefty pitcher) with Cubs Cedeno, Gallagher, Marshall and Ceda going the other way.
Move 2 gets us all talking. DeRosa, Murton and Hart go to Cleveland for Peralta (SS), Michaels, 31 year old versatile (OF) with limited power, Laffey (young lefty pitcher) and AA Beau Mills a big time, lefty hitting power guy who plays 3rd and 1st--a top 5 Cleveland prospect. His dad is bench coach for the Red Sox--which only means that he was raised in the game. He is 22 and could be Lee's eventual replacement.
If Move 1 doesn't happen, JH in a burst of daring does Move 2. Peralta plays short with his 20-25 HR power, 80 RBI's. .761 OPS and 130 SO's. Theriot plays 2nd. Laffey is not overpowering but is called the ground ball machine and has Lilly like skills.
JimK,
I agree with you on the Roberts deal and think the players you named may be correct except I think it will only be Roberts coming back for those 4 Cubs. Patton was the main guy that the Orioles taregted in the Tejada trade because they think he'll eventually become a #1 or #2 starter ... why would they turn around and flip him? You got your HUBS on again?!?
Really would be sad to see D-Ro leave. He's so versatile, is a great clubhouse guy, plays hard, and gives you an advantage that not many teams have. He plays so many positions well. But I understand why they'd trade him -- he wants to play 2nd Base.
The Kenney interview suggests that both moves (Roberts and the mystery player) would be for position players... but a lefty middle infielder (Roberts) and a mid rotation starter sure would look good.
Interested now to see what happens since there's obviously more out there than JUST Roberts :-)
Im sure the mystery player is our old friend Marlon Byrd. Rumor has it they wanted Murton and some pitching prospects. If that is the other deal Kenney is talking about it would make sense that he feals they offered enough even if it was a straight up trade of Murton for Byrd, anythign else I think is too much.
i think all cub fans will be in for a big surprise when hendry pulls the trigger. this is the year to win. no holds barred. it is a street fight to the world series. and good ole sweet lou is the man to get them there.
jb, I hope you are right.
Santana to the Mets = SH*T. We just really hurt our chances of advancing anywhere in the playoffs with the D'backs (Haren-Webb) and now the Mets with that offense and Sanatan.
Hendry should've gone for Bedard (or Haren...or anyone) harder. He could easily now be seen as doing a terrible job this offseason. It's no surprise, and he should've been more active to stay competitive. Can we get it done? Probably. Is it going to be A LOT harder? Obviously.
There is unconfirmed speculation that Adam Jones has a degenerative hip condition that could end the Bedard deal...so there's still hope (accoring to rotoworld.com)....I'm praying for something...
David...I thought I was seeing the sun when I did the O's deal that got us Patton too. But in the winter, patchy skies often interfere. Patton is fragile (shoulder weakness) compared to Marshall and Marshall has 200 + innings in the bigs. In his very brief tour with Houston, Patton had trouble with righties (4.82 ERA). I see Patton as a promising lefty reliever. Baseball America sees him as a 3 starter at best. Andy sees two number 3-4 starters, a starting SS and the second coming of Lee Smith in my proposal--and Andy decides to live with that. (Of course, Andy may be looking for work by this weekend the way things are going in Oriole land.
But I'm not greedy--I'd take the O's AA rookie outfielder Reimold or even a couple of unranked guys like Tripp (OF) and Thrall (LRP) based on their Low A Dellmarva records.
Here's some real HUBS: The O's want Sherrill, the older, power lefty reliever from the Mariners (in the Bedard trade)--so they can include him in a Roberts deal with the Cubs. The O's don't need the older Sherrill, even though he is good, in their major re-build. Makes sense to me here in the darkness. Please don't strike a match. There's also some danger of gas.
santana is a great pick up. but, the rest of the mets have to prevent choking. i dont see it happeneing for them this year either.
I am not in favor of most of the Roberts proposals I've been reading over the last few months.
That said, if Pie goes to the O's in a deal for Roberts, I would try to get Reggie Willits from the Angels. He has zero power but his OBP has been top notch in the minors and the bigs. Plus he's right handed and would make a nice platoon option with Fuld. It doesn't look like he has a place to play in LA between Matthews, Hunter, Anderson, Guerrero and Rivera.
I would much rather pass on Roberts and instead make a deal for Bedard (using Pie, Marshall, Gallagher, and Fox or Cedeno) and then get Willits from the Angels.
This team needs top-of-the-rotation pitching more than it does Roberts. Between Z, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Marshall, Lieber and company, you don't have a single sure-fire 18-game winner. In fact, other than Zambrano (who's done it exactly once) the only one who's ever done it is Lieber and he's never going to do it again. I like Rich Hill. I've been watching his stats since Daytona. But he is no sure thing. I like Lilly too, but his track record is very clear. There isn't much to like about Marquis and Lieber. If you say you do, you're not looking at the numbers cuz they're both awful.
Get Bedard you've got something. Go with what you have and get ready for some long summer headaches.
i agree totally that we need bedard. 3 lefty's... who cares. if good pitching is what you need, then it does not matter. you can go like this
bedard
zambrano
lilly
lieber
hill
thats my rotation. split up the lefty's. go big jim! get bedard. world series rings will be on order. if we dont get him it may be a long season.
Thats all the Mets had to give up?!?!
Do we not have comparable prospects?
In the end Angelos will probably nix all of these trades and we as cub fans will have been screwed by Andy "Mc-failure" again. I really think that Hendry probably should have focuse on getting another starter this off-season instead of waisting his and our time haggling with the Orioles organization over a second baseman who is only about one or two wins of change for this organization. Lets roll with the Derosa Hope for a little magic from Pie and pick up another starte at the allstar break as I'm pretty sure we will still be int he race. Lets just start looking forward to spring training and quit worrying about the horrible situation the Orioles fans are in anymore. GO CUBS!
Matt - No - we do not have comparable prospects
I can't believe the Twins ok'ed this offer over all the other rumored packages from the RedSox and Yanks. This is the worst package I have seen in 3 months of following this stupid soap opera.
Side note... is it obvious to anyone else that Minaya prefers players born outside of the US?
To clarify the "no we don't" comment....
Remember that Baseball Prospectus article we debated back and forth about the Cubs having two five star prospects (Vitters and Soto) and zero four star guys?
Well... looking at a similar BP rating for the Mets, the Twins got a five star (Humber) a four star (Gomez) and two three stars.
That trumps whatever we could have put together.
Fair enough, but we can agree that the Twins are getting hosed here a little right?
Gary J - Humber is a 5 star? Sickels gives him a B- which means he views these players as high or higher than Humber:
Josh Vitters Grade B+
Geovany Soto Grade B+
Sean Gallagher Grade B
Eric Patterson Grade B
Tyler Colvin Grade B
Josh Donaldson Grade B
Donald Veal Grade B-
Jeff Samardzija Grade B-
Jose Ceda Grade B-
Tony Thomas Grade B-
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/11/25/195122/19
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/11/19/01814/657
Fernando Martinez Grade B+
Deolis Guerra Grade B+
Carlos Gomez Grade B
Kevin Mulvey Grade B
Jon Niese Grade B
Eddie Kunz Grade B
Phil Humber Grade B-
Do the math... the Twins got screwed and shame on the Cubs for not offering this much.
Well Humber's rated very high and was a #3 draft pick three years ago... so he's probably better than any of the pitchers we could have included in a deal - and then getting Gomez on top of it makes it a pretty good deal.
Better than anything we could have packaged anyway
...but I'm not sure it's better than what the Yanks and Red Sox offered earlier this winter. I have a feeling the Twins actually ended up with worse deals by being patient and seeing what more they could get.
The Mets got Santana, The Mariners got Bedard, We got Lieber...
The Tigers got Miguel Cabrera, The Astros got Miguel Tejada, we got Kosuke Fukudome...
The World Series is in the bag... lol... what a joke!!
Lieber and Fukudome.. this is what Hendry has come up with 2 weeks before players start reporting... Hes a freakin bonehead
Well, it definately would have been nice to have Santana in a Cubs uniform, but now lets see what Jim Hendry has on the table to help us take this thing this year.
Remember all the fuss about Zito last year? I have a feeling that Santana will be the Zito of last year! It just seems that when top of the line pitchers get traded or move to another team they just don't measure up to their previous standards. And if you look at most teams, their #1 pitcher is one that has been brought up through the farm system. How many 20 game winners move to another team and win 20 games the next year? Santana had a great year last year but he was not the same Santana of the previous years. I would be leery about giving up my farm system for him.
That's a good point Gramps, also lets not forget about Jason Schmidt and how he turned out for the Dodgers.
I do hope we can get another starter, but if we don't I am not going to be too upset to start the season with what we have, after all we did lead the NL in strikeouts last year, and weren't we third or fourth in the NL in ERA.
Great points Gramps...
Baron... Yes, the Mets appear to have landed Santana. That is a lot to pay for 1 player. What if he gets hurt?
The Mets still have a lot of question marks.
The Mariners do not have Bedard yet. If they do great, the medical concerns I kept reading and hearing last week is a BIG red flag. Also, the Cubs do not face the Mariners this year.
Same with the Tigers...the only time the Cubs would see Detroit would be in October.
Miguel Tejada....the Astros are taking a lot of heat for that deal. Plus, will he even be able to play this year?
Games are not played on paper....if they were the Cubs would have won the Series in 2004.
Take a breath and come in off the ledge. Let's see what happens first. Many think the Cubs have a solid team...the key word there is 'team'.
Prospect strengths are part of the story, and the case can be made that the Twins didn't get as much as you would think they might have. But the real story is who gets to pay the $150 million, 6 year deal that the Mets are tring to work with Santana.
The Mets exited last season with a payroll of about $115 and Fred Wilpon, owner, is going to the
$150 million neighborhood this year. "He's moving on up to the East side"--as the Jefferson's used to sing. We left last season at $100 million, and we are going to between $120 and $125 million. We have been Trumped (as in the butthead, Donald), and prospects are very secondary in the deal.
We can't fault Zell and the Tribune for having increased our payroll 50% over the last four years. Until there is a hard cap like the NFL, the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets will win the spending race.
We still get to play the games, and maybe our top guns will "trump" their top guns. Theirs are Santana (25 million), Beltran (18), Delgado (16), Martinez (11)m, Wagner (11), Alou (7.5). Soriano, Rameriz, Zambrano, Lee, Fukudome, and Lilly could match up well. Delgado and Pedro have had serious health issues and Alou is older than dirt. Our other pitchers probably are better than their other pitchers. Their other positon players (like the SS, Wright and Castillo) may be better than ours. So let's play ball.
JH... This doesn't mean that you don't have some important work to do.
A few thoughts....
* The only time that we are going to have to worry about Santana is when we face him. Lets face it, he's not in our division and if by some chance we are battling the Mets for the Wild Card/best record then we obviously want him to pitch lousy, any other time we want him to pitch and win.
* I wonder if the market for Erik Bedard picked up?
* Where's Agustin?
Jim (Tinley Park):
I think your alter ego is Agustin! I agree on the Santana points. Also, from a Twins perspective all things being equal why trade him to the AL regardless of how many times you face him personally? Why make Boston any tougher than they already are? Hey, rumor has it the Twins made one last offer of 1/10 of a billion dollars and he turned it down, why send him to the defending WS champs and watch him lose to the Cubs in game 7? On second thought why didn't they......
Now, where is Jim (TP).....I mean Agustin?
I think we would all agree that Santana had a great year last year so I will use his 15 wins as a bench mark.
Greg Maddux
Leaves Cubs wins 20 games for Braves
Leaves Braves wins 16 games for Cubs
Pedro Martinez
Leaves Expos wins 19 games for RedSox
Leaves RedSox wins 15 games for Mets
Jon Lieber
Leaves Yankees wins 17 games for Phillies
Josh Beckett
Leaves Marlins wins 16 games for RedSox
Randy Johnson
Leaves Astros wins 17 games for Dbacks
Leaves Dbacks wins 17 games for Yanks
Mike Hampton
Leaves Astros wins 15 games for Mets in next year
Leaves Mets wins 14 games for Rockies in next year
Leaves Rockies wins 14 games for Braves in next year
Bartolo Colon
Leaves Expos wins 15 games for the WhiteSux
Leaves WhiteSux wins 18 games for the Angels
Kenny Rogers
Leaves Twins wins 18 games for the Rangers
Leaves Rangers wins 17 games for the Tigers
Mark Mulder
Leaves A's wins 16 games for the Cardinals
Curt Schilling
Leaves Dbacks wins 21 games for the RedSox
Tim Wakefield
Leaves Pirates wins 16 games for the RedSox
Ted Lilly
Leaves BlueJays wins 15 games for the Cubs
Jeff Suppan
Leaves Pirates wins 16 games for the Cardinals
Mike Mussina
Leaves Orioles wins 17 games for the Yanks
*I think there is a better chance that Santana continues to be among the best pitchers in the game than just 1 of those prospects makes an all-star game appearance one day.
Baron -
So far as Cabrera... the Tigers gave up a BOATload of young talent. If they don't win a world series, then three years from now they will be getting slammed for the deal. The two top players in that deal are so far and above anything the Cubs have coming up through the system (including Vitters and any of the pitchers) it's not even funny. So far as Tejada... MacLane is getting slammed already in Houston for bringing in a slugger with declining stats and declining range that could both be explained by steroids (or lack thereof once they started active testing)
Gramps -
Great points as always :-)
Cliff -
Hey - I don't watch these guys play - I just go by what I read. Going by Baseball Prospectus, Humber is a stud... going by Sickles he's not. Oh well. Depends on what the Twins scouts had to say ultimately.
Gary J - When was Humber listed as a 5 star player? Whas that his baseball prospectus ranking for 2008 or an old ranking? I just find it very hard to believe that baseball prospectus (very highly regarded) would rank him a 5 star going into 2008 when so many other analysts have soured on him. I am not trying to be a jacka%@... just curious.
Kevin I:
I am here, I am also battlng a head cold.
I think Santana wasn't going to resign with the Twins no matter what they were going to pay him.
Jim...I am here but in depression. I just called my therapist after I heard the Johan news. I hope we do get a good starting pitcher.
On the other hand I would like to see one of the kids become serious man...the next Zambrano? We never seemed to pay enough attention to him when he was a prospect, did we. IMO he came under the radar up until 2003. Maybe Veal is the guy, or Gallagher or Samardija...
Neil, you make a good point and lift my spirit. Thanks and Do not worry, I did not thought for a second that we would really add Santana...But I did thought Bedard/Roberts were on the way to Chicago.
You guys really want to know what is my problem???
I need some baseball soon. I am looking out the window waiting for spring!
Neil, we should have a Bored to death Talking Live' version one of this days! Hey atleast I have been working on my 70'camaro...It should be ready for the next offseason...Oh well, I am going to turn on my A/C now and watch Venezuela ball.
Agustin:
Cheer Up! Maybe Telemundo will buy the Cubs lol.
Humber was a top guy. He injured his arm and had surgery. Last year, he labored in his comeback--with a fastball in the high 80's instead of the former mid 90's. If he comes all the way back he is a 5. If he doesn't, he is a 2. The jury is out and Mrs. Humber isn't sure of the outcome either.
The other three prospects are ranked higher than Humber's current 7th spot on the recently released Baseball America Top 10 list. The "G" pitcher was #2, the "G" outfielder was #3 and Mr. and Mrs. Mulvey's little boy was #4.
None of these prospects will likely perform as well as Soto, Vitters, Pie, Colvin and Ceda. The Twins would be pleased if two pitchers are average in the bigs and the center fielder is as good as Corey Patterson.
The Twins would have been more than happy to get Hill, Pie, Colvin and Ceda--but we couldn't (and shouldn't) cover the $150 million contract. Think about it! That's three times the entire payroll of (maybe) three major league teams. The guy is great, but he has pitched 200 + innings for four or five years now and he is over due for a setback or some diminishing of skills. We will have a chance at a short term deal at half the per year cost of Santana for a Lowe or a Burnett or someone like them if the Dodgers or Jays or another team starts poorly. And we still have the guys we would have traded for our utilization or for a trade that makes sense.
My ranking numbers on Humber (above) are screwed up. He was a 1 and could turn out to be a 4-5 if his arm doesn't come all of the way back from surgery. I'm taking the rest of the day off!
Good point on the other guys Neil...
but Santana has pitched well over 200 innings in 4 straight years, in the AL, with a sub 1.00 WHIP, 200+ strikeouts and 15+ wins each of those years, pitching in arguably the deepest division in baseball.... With most NL lineups... I'd doubt his ERA would be north of 2.5
Outside of maybe Beckett, Peavy and CC Sabathia, I don't see a better pitcher than him in baseball
As for Miguel Cabrera ... hes a better hitter than anyone on the Cubs roster right now... and younger... Giving up a boatload of 'prospects' for him and Dontrelle is a no-brainer..... Not every prospect turns out great... Cabrera is a stud...
baron: I agree with you on Cabrera. He's the one guy I would pick to build my team around right now, for the foreseeable future. And if I'm at home on my XBox that's what I do. Sure, I trade a bunch of prospects to Florida, bring in Miggy Cabrera. Then I have no problem turning around and trading Ramirez to the Angels for Figgins, hopefully Willitz too.
However there's a human side to baseball... This is what seperates us from that Evil Empire out east. If Rami wanted to play for the Angels, he would have signed to play for the Angels. Yes he did opt out to make more money, but that's what players do nowadays. Didn't he leave some money on LAA's table to play in front of the fans he loves? And let's face it... the guy can play, and he's still improving.
I guess my point is management owes it to Rami For be faithful and he feels like he owes it us fans.
I'd give Minnesota the benefit of the doubt given their history of talent evaluation. Gomez could develop into a 20 HR/30 steal guy and is a better prospect right now than Pie. Guerra is a 19 year old fireballer who could develop into a #1 starter ... we don't have any comparable player in our system. Humber and Mulvey are solid guys who could be #3 starters, maybe #2's if things broke right ... I'd say they're similar to Gallagher. But most importantly, the Twins are very good at picking which prospects are going to pan out.
Agustin, I am right there with ya, I cannot wait any longer for Ball to get here. I also can't wait for Spring to just get here, it is a cool 8 degrees, and -13 with wind chill. What is your high for today?