Dead or Alive?

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For every report that says Brian Roberts will not be traded to the Cubs....there is one that claims there is still a possibility. So which is it? Lou Piniella apparently wants Roberts to be his second baseman or the Cubs were not be pursuing him. Piniella saw first hand, at least fifteen times a year, what kind of player Brian Roberts is and what he could give his team. If Jim Hendry and Andy MacPhail have "discussed" a deal, what, or better yet, who is the holdup?

Bruce Levine indicated over the weekend the deal was done but several reports on Sunday mentioned the deal could still happen. Then came the report from the Baltimore Sun on Monday afternoon. Roch Kubatko asked Andy MacPhail if the reports are true that talks between the Cubs and Orioles are dead, MacPhail responded with, "We haven't closed any doors."

Nothing is imminent until it is done, that much was learned last week....but maybe the rumors of this death have been greatly exaggerated.

Dave Kaplan talked with Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus on Monday night about all things baseball, and then of course the Cubs. The topic of Brian Roberts quickly surfaced and Carroll thinks Roberts would be a good fit....but only if it means Alfonso Soriano was eventually moved down in the lineup. Carroll said it would complete the Cubs offense and defense and would free up Mark DeRosa to return to the super-utility role....one that he excels in.

Kaplan asked Carroll if he would trade a package that included Tyler Colvin, Sean Gallagher, Sean Marshall and Ronny Cedeno for Roberts and Carroll quickly responded with "yes". Carroll said Roberts would give Piniella a solid number two to start the year behind Soriano and would give Kosuke Fukudome time to settle into the big leagues. Once Fukudome was able to move into the two-hole, Roberts would become the leadoff hitter and Soriano would drop down in the order. Kaplan said he thinks the price is too high for Roberts but Carroll disagreed.

Carroll said he was not as familiar with Colvin as Kevin Goldstein, but he thinks Tyler is a solid player and a good prospect but he questions where he fits into the future of the team. He said the same about Ronny Cedeno, again a good player, but how does he fit in? Kaplan asked about trading away pitching depth in Marshall and Gallagher and Carroll responded with there are still free agents that can be signed. Carroll views the four players as three prospects that do not fit and one that does.

Kaplan said the Cubs were "laughed at" by the Orioles when they offered just Marshall, Gallagher and Cedeno for Roberts and then they "laughed at" the Orioles when they asked for Rich Hill. He also said a few of his sources told him the Cubs would be "nuts" to trade Tyler Colvin. Kaplan discussed Sean Marshall's value with a caller and Kaplan responded with, "Marshall does not have great value around the major leagues." Kaplan said he was much more optimistic a week ago about this trade happening than he was on Monday.

The Baltimore Sun reported, "don't look for any deals to go down tomorrow (Tuesday). It doesn't appear that the Orioles are that close to finalizing anything."

From Around the League

According to the Baltimore Sun on Monday morning, Adam Jones was instructed by the Mariners to leave the Venezuelan Winter Leagues and return home. The Sun found it "pretty interesting" considering he would be a big piece of the trade from Seattle to Baltimore for Erik Bedard. On Monday afternoon, the Sun reported Jones was "cleared to play" on Monday night for Lara. The Sun questioned why he was "pulled from the lineup over the weekend, and why he's back in it."

The Braves finalized their deal with the A's on Monday for Mark Kotsay. The Braves sent Joey Devine and a minor league pitcher for Kotsay and received $5 million of Kotsay's $7.35 million dollar contract from Oakland.

The Brewers made the Mike Cameron deal official on Monday. Milwaukee will pay Cameron $7 million in 2008 for, at the most, 137 games and the 25-game suspension will cost Cameron $792,350 dollars. Umpbump.com thinks the Cameron signing could be the best of all the free agent centerfielders this off-season.

The Cardinals and Blue Jays also finalized their trade of third basemen on Monday. Scott Rolen was sent to Toronto for Troy Glaus. Both players passed their physicals and Glaus agreed to exercise his player option for 2009 worth $11.5 million dollars.

Finally....Friday was the 35th Anniversary of the designated hitter rule. The American League has been using different rules since 1973 and some feel both leagues should use the DH....just don't tell Carlos Zambrano.

  • agustin rexach

    Hey Jim! Listen I'm not anti-Felix Pie...actually I am rooting for him to be a great player for the Cubs, really. I just honestly think he will never be able to hit lefties...I have been saying this for a long time now and Mr. Rokita just reminded me of that. But hey, he will never be a bad player because of his tools and he seems like a great guy plus he has some time because he is young. Yet...he smells like Corey. If he turns out to be a stud...I'll gladly ask for forgiveness.



    BTW Corey Patterson has all my respect as a person...and finally is becoming a solid/mature player. I met him once after a game in a restaurant and my nephew wanted his autograph...and he walked up to Corey and his girlfriend and he was really cool about it. He had a short conversation, while I kept looking at his beautiful girl, and when they left he came around our table and shook all our hands...since we had Cubs shirts and caps and stuff.

    I would not mind Corey playing for the Cubs and also I have no doubt Pie can bat around .270 but he will have a dreadful OBP.

    ok enough with Felix Patterson, I meant Corey Pie

  • Elliot

    Is anybody gonna be pissed if Fukudome puts up Mark Grace power numbers? Because Fukudome will be the first one to tell you that he's not hitting 30 HR's this year, and probably won't even hit 20. Remember what he said in his interview? "The biggest difference he's noticed between Japanese pitchers vs American pitchers is that we have more movement. Consequently, he's gonna shorten up his stroke and focus on making contact instead of hitting HR's."

    So I am begging months in advance, if Fukudome doesn't hit a homerun until July 1st, please nobody be upset.

  • Scott McMeekan

    Listen, it's been a long, long time since I've read something more spot-on than what David wrote above. He nailed it. What do you develop talent for? Use it, or trade it. Cliff pointed out all the players we have under contract for the next 3-7 years. Trade whomever it takes to get Roberts and Bedard. Make the blockbuster trade Jim. Make it. Win now!



  • Jim (Tinley Park)

    Geez, I can't believe that there are that many Anti-Felix Pie folks out there. His hitting won't be any worse next season I am willing to bet that he hits around 265. Not that that is HOF material but it will improve as he gets older. His glove and speed are top notch. He gave the Cubs a boost last year, lets not forget that.

    As for Roberts, lets face it. The Cubs and Orioles can't agree on the players to make it work yet or they are working on an expanded deal to include, maybe, Beddard/Jay Payton? The Orioles aren't going anywhere this year, They are trying to shed payroll and pick up youth that they can control for the next 4/5 years. I will admit, with Soriano and Fukudome in the fold until the next decade, where is Colvin going to play?

  • agustin rexach

    Rich Rokita...I sadly agree. Still we have nothing to loose, if we don't trade him, I'd play him a full season and see because he is only 22.

  • Rich Rokita

    Whether we get Figgins or Roberts, my opinion is that this line-up is the only one in the National League that comes close to comparison of an offensive American League line-up (1-8). The Cubs need to avg. 5-6 runs a game. I am so sick of our team leaving runners in scoring position!!! We NEED to get one or the other. Also, in the 127 at bats for Pie, most were against right handed batters...simply because he can't hit lefties. He didn't in the beginning of '07 and after his trip back down to the minors, proved that he still couldn't hit lefties. Not a big fan. In fact, I predict another Corey Patterson

  • Jeff in Az

    I wish we had something to talk about. What a slow off season for the cubs. Painful actually.

  • jason

    I say trade Colvin. With Soriano and Fukudome locked in for awhile. He seems not to fit into the cubs future. Colvin, Gallagher, Marshall is definately a reasonable trade.

  • daverj

    A few random thoughts:

    1) When evaluating a Roberts acquisition, you can't just look at how much of an upgrade Roberts is over DeRosa, you must also look at the upgrade of the Cubs bench by putting Derosa there instead of someone else. While some might debate how mcuh of an upgrade Roberts is over DeRose at 2B (I actually think it's a pretty significant upgrade, I would think it's pretty clear that having Derosa as a back-up at 3B, SS, 2B, 1B and RF is a huge upgrade over the other bench options.

    2) Marshall's K/9 and K/BB rates at the major league level have been pretty poor. While not dispositive of future success, those are often key indicators.

    3) The 2008 ZiPS projections project very similar stats for Gallagher, Marshall, Marquis, and Dempster. I haven't seen the PECOTA's yet, but I'd expect them to be relatively close. We tend to not like guys that we know are going to be average (or below average) like Dempster and Marquis, but like guys who present an unknown quantity even if they likely will produce similar results. In the NFL, it "everyone loves the back-up Quarterback syndrome".

    4) The only Cub prospects over the last ten years that were generally considered among the Top 10 prospects in all of baseball in their respective years were Prior, Wood, Patterson, and Juan Cruz ... all of them rated MUCH higher than anyone we have in the system now and all can't miss superstars. We all know what happened with each of them. If those guys can, then Colvin, Pie and others may very well "miss" too.

    5) When you have a shot to win, you have to go for it. The D-Backs and Tigers know this and have mortgaged the farm to win now. With Soriano, D Lee, and A Ram in their prime over the next couple years, we should do what we can to win now.

    I think where I'm going with all this is the more that I've thought about it, I believe that Pie, Colvin, Gallagher, Marshall, Patterson, Veal, and Cedeno, and the rest of the minor league system should be available for deals to bring in an SP and a 2B or CF. If we have to give up what we think is "too much" of the future ... so be it if it means winning today. Maybe it's still not enough for Baltimore, but if I could get Bedard, Roberts, and Payton for those seven players, I make the deal.

  • cliff

    Re: Baron

    Everyone talks about the Power and how it will transition to the league switch. There are a handful of things he will bring immediately to this ballclub that have been lacking for years from one all around player...

    DEFENSE (in right)

    GREAT ARM (from right)

    TAKING PITCHES/GOOD EYE

    SPEED

    BASE RUNNING

    I think all of these things will transition well from Japan to MLB. If he slaps the ball to left every time up (instead of hitting the ball on to Sheffield Ave.) to set up the guys behind him AND he brings the above 5 things to the '08 Cubs I will be ecstatic. If my memory serves me correctly the Cubs had the 7th best defense in the majors last year (correct me if I am wrong)... this was with JJ's terrible route running and arm. Do you remember how often players with only decent speed would turn singles into doubles when they hit the ball to JJ. Rediculous!

    These things will immediately help the Cubs and that is the reason I am excited about Fuk.

    *The 1988 Dodgers only had 3 players in double digits in HR's. Kirk Gibson, John Shelby, and Mike Marshall combined to hit 55 HR's that year. They won the World Series that year... FYI.

  • baron

    People might be going ga-ga over Fukudome a little presumptiously....

    Hideki Matsui was called 'Godzilla' in Japan.. He had 5 seasons with at least 38HR -- including a 50 HR campaign....

    His time in MLB so far -- a high of 31....

    Fukudome has had only 2 seasons with more than 30 HR... Anyone who projects more than 15-16 HR in 2007 for Fuk is just crazy.....

    I say he Puts up JJ type power numbers with a ~.370 OBP (a big improvement, no doubt) ....

    I don't see him being a big difference maker at all...

  • JimK

    The Willie Mays case doesn't work, Jim. Willie's rookie year was 1951 when he hit .274 with 20 HR, 68 RBI and won rookie of the year. He was drafted into the army in 1952 and missed most of that season.

    I'm OK with Pie getting 120 AB's on an every day basis in cf if he hits lefties and righties decently in spring training. But if he is over-matched offensively early in the season, he needs to develop at AAA.

  • cliff

    Interesting last post on yesterday's subject about giving up more to get Roberts and Bedard. I agree with Jim and Jason from today... I want Pie as my CF for 2008 (full-time) and I think he will show he deserves the job. If we can somehow get Roberts AND Bedard for the farm (no Pie, no Hill) I say pull the trigger. As previously mentioned... Colvin is a corner OF and FUK and Soriano will be manning those positions for the next 4-7 years respectively. This will surely make the Cubs a strong playoff contender for the next 3-5 years and that is what JH's job is... provide Lou a lineup to compete for the WS and let Lou tie it all together which we all know he can do with his track record and our improved record in his 1st year. During the aforementioned 3-5 years let JH and the scouts rebuild the farm system for 2011. Cub-nation deserves this.

    Notes:

    Zambrano under contract until 2012

    Aram 2011

    Soriano 2014

    Dlee 2010

    Fuk 2011

    Lilly 2010

  • jim

    Also is Roberts going to be that much of an upgrade over Derosa. Only difference I see are stolen bases. About 45 more for Roberts. I would like to have Roberts but not for three to four players. More like 2. Gallager and Cedeno. More than that we are getting hosed.

  • jason

    I agree with Jim, 170 something at bats isnt a shot. We all have heard of Felix Pie for a long time. I say you give him a full season, he is a sketchy hitter it seems, though his defense is excellent

  • Jim

    Eddie,

    You call 177 atbats a chance. I never saw Felix play in back to back games. For all the hype the kid has been given I would like to see what he can do with a full season. You know about 500 atbats. He has great defense a steller arm. I would like someone to give me a REAL reason as to why he shouldn't be given a chance.



    G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB

    34 127 17 30 2 4 4 23 52 16 17 4

    CS OBP SLG AVG

    1 .326 .409 .236

    Wille Mays in 1952. Looks like the NewYork Baseball Giants gave him a chance 2nd year in the league.

  • JimK

    The Roberts show seems unending, and I've indicated doubts about Angelos pulling the trigger. I'd like to keep Colvin too. The argument against keeping him seems to be that he is best suited for a corner outfield position, and the Cubs are set there for several years with Alfonso and the Musha.

  • Larry

    Is anyone else getting really tired of the speed at which MacPhail moves? I don't blame the guy for trying to get the best deal possible, but what new names have surfaced in the past two months to make the wait seem worth it?

    Does anyone really believe that Colvin is will be moved? The guy is going to be a major stud. I wouldn't move Colvin for Roberts, straight-up, let alone as part of a group of four prospects to go to Baltimore for Roberts.

    The Cubs have been accused of seriously over-valuing their prospects, but isn't MacPhail doing the same? Roberts may be a good player, but is he worth 4, I repeat, 4, different prospects?

    Bedard? Yes. Roberts? Definitely not.

  • eddie

    Who is betteer, chone figgins or brian roberts. From my personal opinion its figgins because he is faster and has a little more power and has never been linked to steroids. Plus he has way more versatality. I believe if he stayed in one position the whole year he can play a gold glove caliber defense, steal 50 bases or more and make the allstar team. I would not mind a deal that included felix pie in part with the proposed deal sent to baltimore. Sean gallagher, seam marshall, ronny cedeno, felix pie, low prospect. I would do that in a heart beat because felix pie is not going to do anything in the magor leagues. He was given a chance and sucked, also gallagher just sucks and will not do anything in the magors and ronny cedeno is a weak hitter that at best will compile a 250. average. The only player that i believe can standout is marshall, but we can still acquire a pitcher from free agent market. So i say talk to the angels and try to come to a deal that would be beneficial to both teams.

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