With the Cubs Convention approaching, will Jim Hendry make any deals before the annual gathering next week? The mainstream media began mentioning the name Brian Roberts again on Monday, as most of the baseball world concentrated on the latest from Roger Clemens. Internet rumors heated up on Sunday night about an impending deal with Baltimore. Those rumors continued on Monday but there has yet to be an official word from either Jim Hendry or Andy MacPhail....
Cubs Spring Training tickets at HoHoKam go on sale today at 10:00am C.T. The Cubs open their home schedule against the Giants on February 29th but start the 2008 Cactus League schedule on February 28th against those same Giants in Scottsdale.
The 2008 Hall of Fame Class will be announced at 1:00pm C.T. today. Rich 'Goose' Gossage and Andre Dawson appear to be the two former Cubs with the best shot of induction this year, with Lee Smith apparently still on the outside looking in....Alan Trammell is also on the ballot, but he appears to be a long shot as well.
The Cubs
Outside of Brian Roberts, from all indications the Cubs are looking to add another starting pitcher and a right-handed bat that can play all three outfield spots. Several names have been mentioned over the past few weeks. Joe Blanton and Erik Bedard have been talked about the most and would cost the Cubs a lot in the terms of prospects. But could possibly change the entire complexion of Lou Piniella's starting rotation.
The Mets are rumored to be very interested in Blanton and could offer a better package than the Cubs while the Angels, Mariners and even the Reds are rumored to be more interested in trading for Bedard than Jim Hendry. The Angels and Mariners have prospects the Orioles are rumored to be interested in while the Reds do not seem willing to part with Jay Bruce as a part of any package for Bedard.
Adding either pitcher would likely slide Rich Hill down to the 4th spot and would in turn make him more effective and give him a chance to mature....with a little less pressure to perform. The Cubs would have a solid rotation, on paper, if everyone were to remain healthy.
The other name that has been mentioned is Jon Lieber. Lieber would likely battle Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. Lieber was very effective at one point in his career but age and injury have taken their toll. Lieber would be an insurance policy and could give the Cubs' depth, but that is about all at this point in his career.
Depending on what the Cubs actually have to give up for Brian Roberts, if the deal goes through, will allow Hendry to decide what his next move is....right now, it's back to the waiting game.
But those magic words are just 5 weeks away!!
The Hall of Fame
ESPN released the results of their writers with a HOF vote and of the candidates on this year's ballot, Jim Rice along with Goose Gossage and Andre Dawson received the necessary votes for induction into the hall....now the question is, how did the former players fair with the other voters?
Gossage should take his place today among the game's elite. Gossage was as dominate of a reliever as the game has ever seen.
Andre Dawson belongs in the Hall of Fame, period. No explanation necessary.
Will post an update on the Hall of Fame once the announcement is made.
Subscribe
Jon Lieber?? You've got to be kidding!
Yesterday seemed to be about the extent of team improvements and remaining "big" moves that might be made, if any are required at all. None of us would turn down further improvement unless (for some) it hit the farm system hard. I think we all believe that the Cubs are better now than they were at the end of last season.
Whether additional moves are necessary or highly desireable seems to me to be a matter of whether we are trying to get to the post season or whether we are trying to get to the Series. We are better, but so are others: D-backs, Rockies, Dodgers--and the Brewers, Mets and Reds are competitive. I'm saying that, without some pleasant surprises and exceptional health, we may be no better than fourth strongest right now in the NL. That's good, but not great. JimK
Brad, I am totally with you on that! Where the hell are we going to use him? I hope not in the starting rotation, with what we have?
Dawson and Lee Smith both deserve to be in the HOF. The witers/voters are ANTI-CHIOCAGO because we never won the World Series in the last 100. years.
Is it just me or does anyone else think we'd be better off putting Gallagher/Marshall into the 5th starters spot and leaving him there? Had we done that w/ Marshall last season, we'd know now whether he's still improving or trade bait. If you're not going to play them, trade them... Dallas Greene mantra. Adios Ronny C, good luck making base running mistakes and allowing extra bases for whatever team you land on. Roberts would be nice and does serve an intended purpose, 2 actually (move Soriano down in the order, allow DeRosa the utility flexibility which strenghthens our bench) but... having a #2 or solid #3 starter should be more important at this point. If you can deal for a #1, great. If not, Burnett or Blanton will work. Allow Rich Hill to slide back to #4 for more favorable matchups, eliminates the need to have Dumpster & Marqueef in the rotation (if at all, Kevin Hart, YOU DA MAN)
Anyway... play em or trade em.... send the Orioles 9 guys if you must, as long as you didn't play on them playing for the Chicago Cubs, who cares what you gave up....
The Daver
I agree with you Jim - you build a team for both the season and for the post season.
However the two teams that made the NL championship, the Rocks and D'Backs - were not the two best teams in the NL - and were not built for the playoffs either. Those teams - especially the Rockies - got hot at the right times. That streak they went on (I think it was 21 of 22 at one point through the first round) was insane.
...and hot streaks aren't something you can plan for.
That said... what is "the plan" for a solid MLB team and how do the current Cubs project for opening day?
The Cubs already have enough in the clubhouse to be a serious player in the regular season. And are just away from having the right mix for a playoff power.
What's the mix?
Regular season:
In the lineup...
-- Mix of speed, contact, and power (otherwise known as producing runs/the three run bomb):
We could use a little more speed - but Fuku and Pie will be upgrades in that department already. Power from Lee, ARam and Fonzie is top notch - might be nice to have one more, but that player doesn't appear to be out there now and hasn't been this offseason (unless you count A Jones and hit .220 average). Fuku was probably the strongest all around hitter on the market and he's now a Cub. Upgrade there.
-- Strong hitters 1 through 5:
The run producing heart of the order looks good... would look even better with a speedster at the top and Fonzie hitting lower.. but part of that is up to Fonzie to want to hit lower too.
-- Developing players 6 through 8:
The role players, defensive specialists, and other less-than-all-star caliber players usually make up the lower part of the order... but a team that's lucky will have players they can groom in these spots. Less pressure and playing everyday can allow these players to fail and grow while not being counted on to produce in the heart of the order. Soto and Pie (and maybe Cedeno) fall into that category and the fact that Pie won't be counted on to lead off and Soto's not hitting in the heart of the order are both very good things. Add DeRosa down in this part of the lineup, and our bottom half compares favorably to most of the other teams out there not in NY or Boston.
In the field...
-- Defense up the middle:
Whether Soto or Pie hit or not is irrelevant for this part - defense doesn't slump. Both of these guys are upgrades defensively up the middle.
-- Hitters on the corners:
Lee, Fuku, ARam, Fonzie - 'nuff said. I'd stack those four playing the classic "hitter's positions" against anyone.
On the hill...
-- The ace:
Every team has one by definition... it's your #1 guy. The best teams though have a hammer - a guy the other team dreads when they know he's scheduled for their series... Big Z is a damn good hammer when his head is right - and without Barrett and his contract a problem anymore I'm looking for him to be on more than off.
-- Solid 1-2-3:
The ace is nice, but he only goes once every fifth day. The "classic mix" starts with three guys that can win you 15. Z - yes. Lilly - yes - just did it. Hill - yes... but he has to prove it. Check the stat books over the years though - third year for a starting pitcher is the breakout year. It's one of three axioms of fantasy baseball - third year starting pitchers, contract years, and guys turning 27 (no idea why that's magic - but it's amazing how often 27 is the breakout age). Hill's got the talent - if he harnesses it and pitches like he's capable and does it consistently... we've got a damn good top three.
(caveat here: I HATE dealing with "ifs" when projecting - but Hill's the biggest if the Cubs have when talking about success... and he's not that huge an if. It would actually be more of a shock to have him fail than it would be to have him succeed. Not many teams can say that about their "ifs". It's a very good sign for the Cubs actually)
-- The innings guy:
While I'm not sold on Marquis and think the Cubs could do much better... he DOES actually fit the role of the "classic mix" of the horse that goes out every fifth day and eats innings. Gives the pen a rest while not being counted on in the playoffs. hey - it's the classic thinking right or wrong... and Marquis does actually fill that role pretty well.
The fifth starter:
Some teams don't have a huge differentiation between their 5th and their 3rd... so the Cubs are ahead of the game there. The good teams though use the fifth spot to develop someone that could climb into a higher spot in the rotation someday. The Cubs are in excellent shape in that regard with Marshall, Gallagher (if still here), Veal (if he jumps up), and even Dempster. I know, I know... but Dempster's "stuff" actually is better suited for a guy that has to go 6 innings and face the same guys 3 times. He can get guys out as he showed as closer, but he's not overpowering. We'll see about him come spring anyway.
-- Bullpen:
Strong. Mix of youth and vets? Check. Mix of lefty, righty? Check. Specialists? Check. This is a solid unit.
-- Closer:
Marmol and Wood both fit the classic "here's my best stuff - see if you can hit it" closer mold. With two of 'em that makes a deadly combo for the 8th and 9th.
There is a slight need in the classic role for the pen that seems to be lacking... the 7th inning guy is becoming more prevalent in MLB bullpens... a pre-setup guy. While I don't see that role in the Cubs pen yet - they have enough talent there to either discover someone for that role or make do.
Bench:
Jury's still out - but there's a good mix of youth and vet right now. I have a feeling that this area is something that will get fleshed out further in the off season by a couple trades/signings.
Coach:
Love Lou. Experience and moxie.
OK - all that said... what's the difference between that and a playoff-built roster? Classically at least? Not that much actually.
-- Two aces:
The D'Backs a few years ago with Johnson and Schilling are the prime example of this. Can Hill step up and become that 1A to Big Z's #1. Still a question. Bedard would be that guy (but he's going to Seattle for more than we can offer it appears). Blanton? I'd think he's more of a third #2 or 3 with Hill and Lilly. Which is a good thing but not the classic second hammer that pitches twice in a series. Hill looks like he has a chance to grow into that role this year.
-- Experience:
The classic quote is "act like you've been there before". There is so much more to being in the playoffs than just going out and playing the game. The Cubs got a taste of that last year and it only makes them a stronger club if they make it back. Even Jordan needed a couple of years exposure before the Bulls became a dynasty :-)
-- Clutch:
That's where we failed miserably last postseason... but that comes down to experience and timing. And this mix of vets seems like they would be chomping at the bit to prove they aren't the players that choke in the spotlight. They had plenty of clutch performances in the division run... they have the ability.
So that's my two cents :-)
We're looking pretty darn strong by that analysis. Might have fan goggles on a bit - but this team does fit the "classic" mold.
...and the offseason ain't over yet.
Gary J for assitant GM! Heck of a job. He describes an excellent team with conviction. Maybe there's a little wiggle room in the "offseason ain't over yet".
I worry that Z is a 1b and not a 1a (13 losses)but I do think he's capable of 20-10. Lilly and Hill may really be 3's but Hill has upside.
Winning 21 of 22 get's well past luck on my calculator. The Rox are 10 deep in good bats with as more great ones than we have--and their young pitchers came through last year. The D-backs have the Power 1a and 1a in pitching, their rookie cf led the team in HR last year and played excellent cf. And they did edge us in the playoffs.
So I'm hoping we get predictably better at a couple of positions. Maybe JH doesn't have the budget or knows better than some of us do about starting pitching and cf/2b. And Gary could be right in raising the possibility that we could see some major upside in a couple of our rookies (Gallagher, Hart, and Pie come to mind. I do think that Theriot and Hill wll do well. And, a couple of big surprises from the "upsides" plus great health and years from Lee and Rameriz could get us to the Series. I am hoping though that JH ain't done yet. JimK
Gary,
The only argument I have for you is about the bullpen:
1. I think if you have Marmol and Wood as your 8th and 9th inning pitchers then Howry would be a perfect fit for the 7th.
2. Our mixture of righties and lefties is skewed strongly in favor of the righties. Scott Eyre can hopefully build on the second half momentum that he had. Other than him you're looking at Neil Cotts (garbage) and Carmen Pignatello (grand total of 2 major league innings)
Just saw the news that "Hawk" did not make the Hall of Fame. I think this is terrible. The Hall of Fame is becoming a joke to me. It is a bit too elitist for me when guys like Dawson, Lee Smith, Blyleven and Jim Rice can't garner enough votes to be enshrined. Something has to be wrong with the voting process. Add to this the Ron Santo snub and it even gets worse. I am glad to see that Gossage made it this year but it just is not enough. I wish they would do something to fix this whole process because in my mind, it is flawed.
Good point about the righty/lefty mix in the pen Scott - I wouldn't be surprised to see Marshall starts the year out there too since we've already got a couple solid lefties in the rotation (Lilly/Hill) but a lot of that will depend on what happens on the trade front these next few weeks.
Thanks for keeping me honest :-)
Also... I think the voting process for the HOF is flawed too Gramps.
There are voters out there that in the past have turned in blank ballots because they "didn't think there were worthy candidates". They are allowed to put up to 10 guys on their ballot, but noone ever does that. I just went out and looked at the results online, and each ballot had an average of 5.35 votes this year.
I absolutely think Gossage deserves it - dominant during his time.
but... I personally I think the guys that got higher than 40% all deserve it as well (Gossage, Rice, Dawson, Big Lee, Blyleven, Morris) and I wouldn't even have a problem with the others that got over 5% (Tommy John, Raines, McGwire, Trammell, Concepcion, Mattingly, Parker, Murphy, Baines). I'd argue against Parker or Concepcion... but I can see why someone might vote for them at least.
As for the guys that actually submitted ballots for Rod Beck, Fryman, Nenn, Dunston, Finley, Justice, Knoblach, and Stottlemyer... these guys must be personal friends of theirs or something and didn't want them to feel bad.
So basically, while everyone on the ballot shouldn't have been voted in obviously, I'd be happier with a 50% threshhold rather than 75%. That way at least you've at least got half the voters thinking you deserve it, so it's not a fluke.
and for the record... that level of criteria would have Gossage, Rice, Lee Smith, and Blyleven inducted this year - which to me is a deserving crew.
...and Dawson - forgot to add him to the list of 50% or higher... just typing too fast LOL
He's as deserving as any of them.
Maybe it's time to rethink how players get voted into the HOF. The stupid writers need to go. They leave out Hawk and screw Big Mac. So what's in the mix for the future? If you're nice you get in, if you're a jerk, you're out? That leaves out Clemens, Bonds, and Petey Rose, but I guess Sammy gets in? It's all so stupid, McGwire doesn't want to talk about steroids so he's totally guilty, where's the hard facts? Although he didn't help himself by not jumping on the table and screaming I am not a cheater, a la Richard Nixon...
Everyone has their own opinion on the Hall, but if I'm voting as to who belongs ... Rice, Dawson, Smith, Blyleven, Morris, Raines, Santo, Shoeless Joe, and maybe Baines are in ... and McGwire, Rose, and the rest of the players on the current ballot and, when the time comes, Bonds and Palmiero are out. I'm reserving judgment on Sosa and Clemens for a couple years.
That all said, I kind of like the writers voting as it lends itself to some fun and interesting debates like the one we're having here.
Gramps couldn't agree more with you about Dawson.
Gary J. very good assesment!