Whether you celebrate Christmas or not, the holiday season is often a time of gift-giving, and this year the presents were varied for many of the members of 2003 Division Champion Cubs. Remember Matt Clement? Good ol' Matt will, unfortunately, be back at the Northside this year, but adorned in Cardinal red with his new contract. Mark Prior definitely got what was on his wish list; a new address back home, where a lot of people probably don't realize what a jerk he is, and they still think he is the next coming of Tom Seaver. Who can forget former skipper, Dusty Baker! Dusty is back in the NL, after a short hiatus, and every Cubs-Reds series will no doubt be blown out of proportion as the announcers focus too much attention on Dusty vs. Lou. Oh....I almost forgot....that Kerry Wood guy is going to be our closer this year, giving him a very real chance at a 2nd career (or is it a 3rd or 4th now?) as a Cub.
The Chicago sportswriters wound up with the most presents under the tree, as all of these stories, and more, are teed right up for them to write and talk about in 2008. But if you think a Cubs fan....a real Cubs fan....should care about 2003 storylines, 5 years later, then....well....you know better!
Fukudome is #1....
I heard Fuku may wear #1 for the Cubs, and he is already #1 in the hearts of most of the Cubs Faithful for signing to play for the Cubs over the White Sox and others. He was, apparently, a Christmas present from Hendry to Sweet Lou. While I am sure Lou was thankful, I can't help but wonder if Lou prefers quantity over just one big present.
The Cubs may still trade for Brian Roberts, or do something else we aren't expecting, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised if nothing happened with the roster either. That isn't to say I think we should stand pat, because I don't!
Asset Management....Use them, or lose them!
Someone remind me what we got for Mark Prior....did we get Tejada? Tejada and Bedard? What's that? Oh yeah, that's right....we gave him away for nothing. Two years of absolutely nothing from this Just Ducky-hater, and how many millions later, and we have what to show for it? Not a thing. What did we get for Corey Patterson, Angel Guzman, or Felix Pie so far? I bring up those three because they are the last prospects, besides Prior, who were annointed, at various times, as "untouchable".
Get it into your head, Hendry, no prospects are ever untouchable! We have allowed the trade value of too many of our prospects go to waste under Hendry's regime the past few years. Yes, he did great with Bobby Hill and Hee-Seop Choi, but since then, he either hasn't had the stomach to part with his top prospects, or in the case of Juan Pierre, he gave up a bunch of them for an asset that he only had under control for one season. This type of asset management makes no sense. If you don't want to trade a prospect, then you need to commit playing time to him, so that he can develop. How worthless are Matt Murton and Ronny Cedeno now, compared to a couple of years ago? Rich Hill only succeeded because we stuck with him to give him enough starts. I am not sure why they didn't do the same with Sean Marshall, but if they don't trade Marshall now, and they don't want to put him in the rotation, then what are you doing with the guy?
Coming into Focus....
While we may still have some changes, let's look at what the depth chart on Cubs.com tells us we have so far, and I will guess on a potential batting order along the way:
- Soriano - LF (He will only get better in his 2nd season at Wrigley, and if his wheels are healthy, the steals will go way way up!)
- Fukudome - RF (I am expecting Jacque Jones numbers, circa 2006, but with better OBP and much better defense)
- Lee - 1B (Was his daughter's illness a factor in his sub-par power numbers, or did the wrist injury linger? I expect a slight comeback in HRs and RBIs, at around 32/105.)
- Ramirez - 3B (With an improved Soriano, a high-OBP Fukudome, and a rebounding Lee, Ramirez could have a 40/125 season....I think this is his peak year).
- DeRosa - 2B (If we get Roberts, the whole lineup changes, but DeRosa should be adequate, and hopefully consistent)
- Soto - C (Soto could move to the #5 spot if he shows pop early on, but I am guessing DeRosa's experience gives him the edge for now. Soto is 1 of 2 rookie wildcards in the 2008 lineup)
- Pie - CF (The other rookie wildcard....I am already starting to dislike the bottom half of this lineup, due to the inexperience of the two rookies, and Theriot. If Pie can make contact, he will be fine....if he strikes out too much, he will be another "can't miss" bust for Hendry.)
- Theriot - SS (Perhaps hitting 8th will keep him fresher, as he seemed to tire at the end of the year in 2007. He doesn't have to set the world on fire, but he does need to get consistent.)
Bench: Sam Fuld (who?), Daryle Ward, Cedeno, Murton, and Blanco are the key guys. The bench is a lot weaker than the group appeared last year at this time, with Jones and Floyd in the mix. Sam Fuld may be a fan favorite, but this guy has never done anything of note at the MLB level. Ward was a good backup. Murton plays better as a starter, and I think the same goes for Cedeno....without regular minutes, these guys won't be effective, and I hope they are traded instead. Hank White still can't hit....better hope Soto is the real deal, folks!
Starting Rotation: Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Marshall/Dempster.
I have to imagine that whichever guy loses the 5th starter spot will be involved in a trade, at least by the All-Star break. If Hill has hit his ceiling, and Lilly comes back down to Earth, this rotation is the Big Z Show, and that's about it.
Bullpen: Wood, Marmol, Howry, and Eyre. The bullpen will be as good as those 4 make it. It is a nice mix of experience and electric stuff. I think the bullpen is a plus again this year....they just had a bad start last year.
Final Thoughts
Pie and Soto represent the low-cost youth component of the roster as it is currently comprised. If they fail, this is a .500 team at the All-Star break again. I could see a big trade at the break for an instrumental position player, should either of these guys fail miserably. I also think we need another solid #2 or #3 quality pitcher. You don't know what you will get from Marquis, and you really have no business talking about Dempster as a "15-game winner"....that was, like, 7 years ago. If we are basing rotation spots on what guys did 7 years ago, then why didn't we sign Clement, sign Lieber, keep Prior, and put Wood back in the rotation? Exactly.... So why do we have Dempster penciled in as a starter again?
I like the fact that we have high quality in Zambrano, Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano. After that, our depth is weak, and we are relying a bit on hope. Sounds just like any other year, right? Keep the faith Cubs fans....I imagine a few more changes are still in store, before we can make our final preseason predictions for this club. Until next time, hope for a healthy Wood in Spring Training, that Marquis and Hill can stay focused for 7-8 innings each time out, that Sweet Lou finds a couple other presents hidden deep behind the tree, and let's go Cubs!
Jason B.
Dude, did you not have a Happy New Year? Did you not get "that" present you wanted under the tree?? C'mon man.
Look, you have presented the "nay sayer's" take on every aspect of the Team. I would like to say that first of all you are not giving Fuks the hype that I feel is appropriate. Look, we do not have JJ out there any more and on top of that we have what most called the best aquisition for the price and talent. Not to mention the winfall of money from Japanese advertisement and television revenue.
And the issue about selling the naming rights to the highest bidder? I say go for it. Let's not make believe like Wrigley Field would change somehow if it were called "CITICORP Field."
The money generated will propel us to more highly priced free agents and compete on the Yankees, Mets, White Sox, Angels, and Dodgers type payroll's
I think the future is brighter than any previous 5 yr period for our CUBS since I was 8 yrs old!!!
Have faith Jason B. These are great times for our CUBS...... We will be in the Post Season again this year.....
Barry
Barry Jumps and Jason B post laments for all to see. Jason's take is likely right. We've only enough to make a fight. For Barry's faith to really soar, we need two studs and then we score. One great arm and more strength up the middle. And then the NL will dance to our fiddle. So come on JH. Let's call the tune. And name it Blanton/Crisp or Burnett/Roberts soon! And then all the Faithful will gather round the tree. And sing Santa was especially good to me. JimK
Barry, I am with you, I think from here on out we have nothing but good things to look forward to.
I know I have said this about five times already, but lets look at last year: Once Sweet Lou got everything figured out, and his lineup set (for the most part) We had the second best record in baseball from June 2 on, behind the yanks, and we also missed Soriano for about a month. If we could of had a .500 month in April or May, we would of had the best record in the NL.
Look at the start of this year compared to last years start.
Last Year:
Outfield: Murton-LF, Soriano-CF, Jones-RF,
This year:
Soriano-RF, Pie-CF, Koskue-RF,
Offiensivly we know what we will get from Soriano, Pie is a question mark, Fukudome will be an upgrade over Jones/Floyd. Defensively, we will have one of the most athletic outfields in baseball, and I am predicting we lead the NL in assist.
Last Year
Infield: Ramirez, Izturis, DeRosa, Lee, Barrett.
This Year:
Infield (barring a trade) Ramirez, Theriot, DeRosa, Lee, Soto.
While some are suspect of Theriot at short, I look at it as a big upgrade at SS. He hustles is ars off 100 percent of the time, plays solid D, and brings a huge energy burst to the team, plus is second full year as a starter will help the stamina. Soto, while not having a ton of MLB experience, is already a defensive upgrade over Barrett, and if he can continue to hit like he did last year, look out!
Last Year
Starting Pitching:
Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Marshall.
This Year:
Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Marshall, Dempster, maybe Hart or Gallagher.
Not much has changed with this with the exception of Dempster being added to the list of possible starters. Last year (sorry I haven't looked it up) but didn't we have one of the top ERA's in the NL? Our pitching did and overall pretty good job last year.
Don't get me wrong, I would welcome a trade for another #2 or #3 starter, Or Roberts, but if the season were to start today, I would feel confident with this team. This team is has three, maybe four potential All-Stars, and Lets not forget there is always a surprise or two in Spring Training, will it be Hart, Gallagher, Cedeno, or maybe Fuld. Who knows.
This is just my take on the team feel free to disagree if you like. But one thing I am sure of, I am ready for the season to start. Lets Go Cubbies!!!
JimK is a poet, and he didn't even know it!
Barry, Jason is right. There are holes all over on this team. The lineup is extremely top-heavy, and the rotation only features one dominating-type pitcher. The bullpen is good on paper, but what if Wood gets hurt again and Marmol blows out his elbow throwing that nasty slider? Then how good does it look?
I like the Burnett/Roberts idea the best. That gives us another solid bat and some real speed in the lineup. And Burnett would give us another dominating type power pitcher come playoff time (something we sorely missed last season).
Keep making moves JH. Your work is not yet done!
I wonder if the Cubs have any interest in Luis Gonzales. He adds age (40), but he seems to still have something in the tank, bats left handed, and could be insurance to spell Soriano a bit or if Pie falters, he could patrol RF while Fukodome in right. It may not make sense based on DeRosa's flexibility, but just a thought.
Ryan...I've read that Gonzalez (whom I like too as a bench guy) wants to play every day and get the 3 or 4 hundred hits he needs for 3000. DaVanon could be a good inxpensive switch hitting sign.
Adam...re poetry. Like all of the Faithful, I do pack a Longfellow. That and Cialis account for my occasional blurred vision on this site.
Barry,
I can be as big an optimist as any, but I think you have a case of the Fan Goggles right now. My advice is to get your sink going with enough hot water to generate a fair amount of steam...this helps to loosen up the edges of the Goggles. Next, use a warm washcloth and vigorously rub your eyes back and forth. Continue doing this until you are able to recall what being swept in the playoffs felt like.
Also, I said Fuku is would hit Jones-type numbers from 2006...that would be .285 and 25 homers...not bad. In addition, I said I expect his OBP to be higher, and his defense to be much better. I view him as an upgrade, but I also want to give him a full year at Wrigley before I start expecting batting titles from him.
Finally, I hope the Cubs make a lot of indirect revenue from the Japanese angle...however, tickets have gone up every year, to match the rising payroll...doesn't seem like that extra revenue ever really helps the common Cubs fan much.
Jim K,
I would like to see Bedard/Roberts. Gut the farm for it...that puts us in the World Series, barring injuries. Great job with the poetic license as well!
Nick,
Theriot isn't a new addition, imo...he played most of the year at SS for us, so I really don't think you can point to that as a change.
As you pointed out, the rotation really hasn't changed..so what has changed?
Barrett replaced with Soto. In theory, this is an upgrade, but Cedeno, DuBois, and others have looked good in short stints at Wrigley, only to struggle when they are given the starting job all year. It could be a huge upgrade, but the reality is that Soto is a rookie, and should play like one.
That leaves Fuku as the main upgrade, and we also have Pie at CF, who is a question mark offensively.
On top of that, we no longer have proven veterans, such as Jones and Floyd to rotate off the bench or spot start. My guess is that Hendry isn't done yet, as why trade Pagan (a servicable backup) unless you are pretty confident you have another move to make in the OF still.
Adam,
You are wise in your assessments of columnists.
I don't know about Burnett, although I would welcome that trade...do we really want to trust an oft-injured pitcher into the hands of Larry "By God, Throw a Towel!" Rothschild?
Ryan,
Please...no guys over 40, unless they are named Kenny Lofton.
I've seen Davanon's name mentioned in a couple posts as a possible addition, but I'm pretty sure I read that he signed with the Padres a couple weeks ago.
Burnett has better numbers than Blanton but he is often injured. Do any of you recall in 2003 that he was the Ace of the Marlins pitching staff and he missed the playoffs due to injury? BTW...have I mentioned we should have won that series? Poetry??? Oh thy was born our killer....damn you Sir Beckett!
Back to the future...Burnett would be awesome but as dependable as Wood. Blanton is much younger and similar.
Oh yes! There beats in the chest of Augustin--the heart of a bard with his "damn you Sir Beckett. And in the mind of JH lies the knowledge that Burnett would cost fewer young warriors than Blanton but a higher final contract year cost.
A recent Padre item says they could be interested in DaVanon but the 34 year old remains a free agent--dropped by the A's.
OK - longer than normal post from me :-)
I was fairly sure I had my fan goggles off already... maybe I'd lent them to Barry - but darn it if I don't still see a team that had the second best record in the majors since June of last year returning largely intact and with upgrades at two positions (Kosuke and Soto) to boot.
AND with still three months to make further improvements...
I tried the steam - excellent for my pores and I thank you by the way Jason - but it just confirmed that I didn't have on any fan goggles. We actually ARE a pretty darn good team.
Can we still improve? Obviously. We're not a juggernaut by any stretch. I'm not naive enough to think Theriot is the answer at SS or that Marquis is anything more than an innings eater.
I'd be absolutely giddy with another solid rotation guy so that we're not counting on Marquis quite so much. I'd like to see a top of the order middle infielder like Roberts so we can move Fonzie down and have him driving in runs rather than trying to produce them.
Are we going to make any moves? The waiting continues... but it's all of MLB waiting. Still waiting for the pitchers to find homes (Santana, Bedard, Blanton) so that all the teams know what holes they've got left to fill or what bargaining chips they have left. But I'm banking on Hendry making at least one other major move before spring. He's made enough noise about making a deal, but it takes two to make a trade and everyone seems to be waiting on the other deals for now.
But even if we don't....
It's still a better team right this moment that the one that we started off last season with and a better one than the one that won the division.
But as for the feeling of getting swept in the playoffs?
Sorry - I'm not that jaded just yet. I'm still happy we MADE the playoffs :-)
I'm doubly happy that it wasn't due to fluke career years by a couple of key guys (thinking back to guys like Sutcliffe, Karros, etc). If you really look at the numbers, there wasn't that one special "where the heck did THAT come from" performance. No 60+ homers, no 16-1 record, nothing like that. In fact Soriano had a huge power outage to start the year as did DLee for the first half. Big Z went completely off the tracks for a month while worrying about his contract. We had key players UNDERperform and still made the playoffs.
That in and of itself makes me excited about where the Cubs are as a franchise. The team is no longer filled with a bunch of "if so-and-so pans out and if Joe Schmoe hits 25 and if we can get 15 wins from a guy that's never done it before then we maybe might kinda have a distant chance of maybe competing".
Nope.
This is finally and after years and years of futility and crossed fingers...
(pause for effect)
...a solid legitimate major league ball club.
We no longer have to give cigar and rum to Jobu to take fear from bats :-) We've actually got guys that can hit... and coming soon to an outfield near you something we haven't seen in a while... 3 guys that can catch AND throw.
Why is everyone so negative??? I simply don't get it.
It just seems that as the off season drags on and there's no new player movement on our part, people are getting more and more bitter and are just looking for reasons to bellyache. There's just no reason for that.
We finally have legitimate HOPE. And it FINALLY doesn't feel like the usual Cub-fan "wait until next year" kind of hope where I'm trying to talk myself into it.
I'm a Cub fan - hope is something I know a lot about LOL.
LOL! OK enough already Mr. Shakespeare. Funny!
Hey let the A's or Baltimore have our young warriors if we can have their Gladiators. Oh let em win all they want in the future, I want to win now.
lot of talk on orioles sites that roberts is coming to the cubs for gallagher,cedeno,marshall
"What the hell do you think isn't working?! You saw the damn game! … This guy is your ace, you got a 5-0 lead with the eighth and ninth hitters coming up, you feel pretty good about that inning and all of a sudden it turns into a six-run inning,†Piniella said, obviously still agitated but calmer. “And then I bring in the reliever who’s throwing 30-to-40-foot curveballs to boot. I can see. I can start to see some of the ways this team has lost ballgames. I can see it. We’ve got to correct it obviously
I love Lou. He's the best Cubs manager since me. Blow a gasket, trade a guy, it's MY team...Cubs are doing fine, just keep beating Milwaukee...Maybe it's just me, but I'm not as excited as I was in 2004, but this just in, Lou Pinella has taken his team into the postseason 2 years in a row...
"What the hell do you think isn't working?! You saw the damn game! … This guy is your ace, you got a 5-0 lead with the eighth and ninth hitters coming up, you feel pretty good about that inning and all of a sudden it turns into a six-run inning,†Piniella said, obviously still agitated but calmer. “And then I bring in the reliever who’s throwing 30-to-40-foot curveballs to boot. I can see. I can start to see some of the ways this team has lost ballgames. I can see it. We’ve got to correct it obviously
I love Lou. He's the best Cubs manager since me. Blow a gasket, trade a guy, it's MY team...Cubs are doing fine, just keep beating Milwaukee...Maybe it's just me, but I'm not as excited as I was in 2004, but this just in, Lou Pinella has taken his team into the postseason 2 years in a row...
JimK,
I just looked it up ... here's the link on Davanon.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=sd
David, thanks for posting. I was getting ready to say he signed with the Padres. I put it in the Weekend Update last Saturday.
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/01/cubsrumors10508.php
Jason, you are right. The internet rumors are heating up and both ESPN 1000 and Dave Kaplan said tonight the Cubs are back on the Roberts deal.
It could be an interesting couple of days.
Gary J,
Great post. The only guy that I think had a career year last year was Marmol ... he should continue to be very good, but will probably never be as dominant as he was last year. The bullpen should improve anyway with a healthy Wood and better seasons from Howry and Eyre. I expect that each of our superstars (Soriano, Lee, Ramirez and Zambrano) will improve upon their production from last year.
Sorry for the wrong info David and Neil. I looked at the Jan 7th update of the MLB free agent list which still shows DaVanon as unsigned--and the Padres 40 man roster which doesn't list him. It didn't occur to me that he would sign a minor league deal. JimK
JimK...no worries.
I have a feeling the deal is announced Tuesday sometime. Lets wait and see
again, I think it's a RIDICULOUS price to pay for a guy like Roberts....You only pull that kind of trade when you're getting a Willis, Cabrera, or even Haren or a Swisher.....NOT a Roberts. He's not a difference maker, and don't be fooled into thinking he is....just look up his stats. As I've stated before, our rotation is VERY mediocre to below average at the end with Marquis and now Dempster, so we have NO business trading our top pitching prospect another starter, and our back-up shortstop
Aaron, I couldn't agree more. I like Roberts more than you do, but it isn't a MAJOR upgrade at the position. And we cannot afford to lose pitching depth for a minor upgrade. Increase the package and trade for Blanton. I'd give up both Gallagher and Marshall in a deal for Blanton. Trading pitching for pitching makes a lot more sense.
Jason B. I realize Theriot was the SS for most of the season, but he was not the starting SS on opening day, sorry I should have clarified.
I do agree with you about the outfield backups, I would like to see at least one more veteran outfielder bench guy to go along with Ward and Murton.