Happy Monday, CCO Readers, and I hope this is the week Jim Hendry finally gets his final roster set for Spring Training, so we can all stop speculating on the "who" and start focusing on the "how". As in, how do the Cubs get to the World Series in 2008!
Today I ask that we all take a deep look within ourselves, and determine if we are truly the realistic, practical, and insightful baseball geniuses that we think we are, or if we are just hopelessly-biased-kool-aid-drinking Cubbie shills. If you go to sleep at night, telling yourself you are the former, yet you can't, for the life of you, figure out why the Yankees won't trade Derek Jeter (and cash) to the Cubs for Ronny Cedeno and Donnie Veal....well....you know better.
Fan Goggles!
Regular CCO Readers will likely remember the origin of fan goggles, but for you newer readers, the definition of fan goggles is simply a sports fan that grossly overrates the players on his favorite team, usually expects something for nothing in trade scenarios, and often thinks every player in the farm system is the next coming of Alex Rodriguez or Roger Clemens (before he was taking needles in the butt, of course).
While some of you are definite repeat Goggle offenders, I believe each and every one of us slips on the Goggles from time to time. So while CCO-regular Aaron, for example, is easy to pick on for his relentless, unwavering, and unabashed praising of seemingly every Cubs minor-league player in AAA, AA, A, and Siberian rookie ball, I can also easily identify Fan Goggles on the likes of Neil and even myself!
Neil: Through all of 2006 and most of 2007, Neil regularly professed excessive man-love for Sean Marshall on a scale which even Marshall's parents couldn't fathom. Every fifth game we would hear how Marshall gave up 5 runs in 7 innings, yet Neil would point out that Sean only gave up 2 hits and 1 run over 5 and 2/3 on an inning, and how that projected out to basically Cy Young-esque numbers for the year. Honorable mentions for Neil would include Ron Santo and Matt Murton.
Jason B. from AZ: Speaking of Matt Murton, a year ago I wrote a column in which I penciled in 2007 as Murton's breakout year, and I expected 20-25 HRs from him. I also expected the 2007 team to be a HR juggernaut, and to eclipse the power numbers of the 2004 team. Ummm....yeah....not even close on either point. I didn't realize I had Goggles on at the time....just thought maybe there was a touch of fog in the desert that day.
Aaron: I have to preface this with the fact that Aaron's opinions are always well thought-out, and he has been a respected and loyal CCO Reader/Poster. He also is pretty good with predictions....see his comments from a year ago:
"I'd expect the following guys to be traded or let go at the end of the year: Ward, DeRosa, Jones (if he's not traded beforehand), Barrett, Izzy, Cedeno, Dempster and Ohman (if they're not traded beforehand), Prior, Miller (if not beforehand)."
Wow....that was pretty dead-on. Jones, Barrett, Ohman, Prior, and Miller are all gone. Dempster and Cedeno are both good candidates to be traded before this season starts as well. Aaron is obviously an ambidextrous fan, able to both wear Fan Goggles while also being able to flip down the visor of a Forecast Guru! Well done, Aaron!
But....he followed that bit of prophecy by strapping on his custom-made/special-edition pair of Farm Goggles, by saying the following would be playing in 2008:
"Guys that I think you'll see in their place are: Pie, E Patterson, Coats, Fox, AROD, Cherry, Veal, Guzman, Gallagher, Samardzija."
I think, at best, we will see 2 of these guys on the 2008 roster....probably Pie and Gallagher (if they are not traded).
Forecast Guru....
As Aaron proved above, not every prediction or trade scenario made by Cubs fans is without merit. In fact, it has been scientifically proven that the CCO Readers are, on average, much more likely to flip down the Forecast Guru visor than the average drunk Cubs fan on the North Side. (note: This scientific study was commissioned by Jim from Tinley Park, so it must be accurate.)
Last year, I flipped down my visor when I defended our bullpen, and believed it would be a strength in 2007. Even after a rocky start by Eyre and Howry, the bullpen was definitely a rock down the stretch. I feel I can confidently emulate LaDainian Tomlinson, flip down my visor, and proclaim the bullpen, barring injuries to Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol, will be even better in 2008. This may be the last year in a Cubs uniform for Eyre and Howry, but they are proven veterans, and should have a solid year as a whole.
With his visor firmly down, Neil recently proclaimed he would not trade for Erik Bedard if questions lingered about his medical records....why give up a bunch of trading chips for a guy that might be hurt and not produce? Neil also put out a very realistic trade scenario to obtain Brian Roberts, by trading away Jason Marquis, Eric Patterson, Marshall, Cedeno, and a couple more farm guys as well. If I was Andy MacPhail, I would definitely take that trade. In fact, even a guy like me, that views the farm only as trade assets, feels like maybe the Cubs are giving up too much in that trade, to only get back one player! To get quality, you have to give up quality, though, and that is why that trade scenario may come true, and firmly cement Neil as a Forecast Guru!
Final Thoughts....
CCO Readers....time for you to point out when you saw others wearing Goggles and/or when you were guilty of strapping them on yourselves! Also, who do you believe is a Forecast Guru, and when have you correctly predicted player success and/or trade scenarios like a pro?
Let's be civilized, of course....this exercise isn't intended to create message board bashing, which the CCO has always strived to stay away from, but rather to take into account all the ramblings of the past 4 months, and figure out where the truth lies in all the conjecture.
Until next time, CCO Readers, wear your Goggles (or flip down your visor) with confidence, let your opinions rain down with optimism, and start planning how you will get Cubs tickets for the 2008 World Series, because this year is, finally, their year. Let's go Cubs!
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I did a pretty fair job last season with my forecast goggles. I am the only person I know of that predicted that after the failed attempt to trade Jones it would be a blessing in disguise and that he would have a really good 2nd half. But I also predicted at the beginning of the season every playoff team as well...pure luck.
Right now I'm going to make a bold prediction and wear both the fan goggles and forecast goggles at the same time and say that Rich Hill will have a huge season this year. sub 4 era with at least 18 wins...yep
I tend to be the opposite. I tend to be on the pessimistic side. So, since we haven't won a World Series in 100 years and I'm 35, i've been unfortinately right alot. But, I got to admit that last year I picked the Cubs 4th in the Division due to injuries. I was way off. Also got to admit that even if the cubs were 10 games back with 20 to go I figured they still had a chance.
As far as this year, with a add on or two I think we will be ok. But I doubt we will get a decent starter now. Not many teams are going to give up a number three pitcher for prospects this close to the start of the season. Especially our prospects.
I've never have been to excited about a prospect since the only one's I can think about,off the top of my head, that have panned out for the CUbs in the last 29 years that I've been a Cubs fan is Shawon Dunston and Mark Grace (Woods and Prior don't count). Even though I have to admit that I've been very dissappointed in Murton. I actually had high hope for him. He had one full season to show himself and did OK but not good enough to be a full time outfielder.
Forecast Guru predictions:
Fuku hits .285, 18 HRs, and 22 steals, with great defense, and .380+ OBP.
Lilly regresses back to 12 wins.
Hill improves to 13 wins.
Zambrano has an 8-game winning streak, and a 4-game losing streak, gets suspended once, and wins 17 games with a better ERA than last year.
Fan Goggles:
Aramis, if healthy, hits 45 HRs, including two 3-HR games.
Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol both strike out the side, in back-to-back innings, on 2 or more occasions.
Lou can see the field so much better, that he argues more calls, and gets thrown out twice as much as he did last year. Unable to unscrew the 2nd base bag at Miller Park, he punches one of the Brewer Sausage mascots on his way back to the dugout instead, earning a week-long suspension.
Lows,
If Hill does that, we will be in the World Series for sure!
jerljr,
Being excited about a prospect, and actually being happy with the production of a prospect can be two different things. With that in mind, I was genuinely excited about Corey Patterson in 2004, based on his injury-shortened 2003 stats. I was also marking out for Hee Sop Choi, but he head-butted Kerry Wood and it was the Eric Karros show after that.
I think Farnsworth had moments of excitement...when he was on, he was on, and his beatdown of that Reds' pitcher that charged the mound was cool.
Unfortunately, I had the Goggles on for all of those guys...but, hey, we have got Marmol at least, right?!
Seriously, realisticly...droppin' the Goggles and all.....
The Chicago Cubs will win the World Series this Year whoooooa! With or without Santana....whooooo, whooooooha! yeah
Forecast Guru:
Big Z finally wins on Opening Day, and proceeds to have a Cy Young type year winning 18 games and finally getting his no hitter he came so close to last year.
Jason B. - Love the fan googles on Sweet Lou, too funny.
I was at the game when Farnsworth tackled Paul Wilson, the Cubs fans went crazy.
If we are able to obtain another starter via trade or free agency that is quality enough to be a 1,2, or 3 and Hill can pitch in the 4 slot, I will be surprised if he doesn't have the type of breakout year I am boldly predicting.
Agustin,
You are extremely objective, so what you say must therefore be true!
nick,
Good call on a Z no-hitter. With the improved field at Wrigley, and with the prospect of Pie and Fuku covering ground in the OF with Soriano, the Cubs may very well have the defense needed to get Big Z that no-hitter. If he through a no-hitter, it would mostly be strikeouts and ground balls, but having that defensive speed in the OF ensures less lucky blooper hits can fall in the gaps.
Lows,
If Hill is competing against other team's 4th starters, the Cubs will be in great shape!
As a relative newcomer with some manners, I won't be naming names except for good work. But I will note that we have HUBS in our midst. That rhymes with CUBS and has nothing to do with our immortal Kenny Hubbs. HUBS stands for Head Up Butt Symptoms. Like those guys who include Murton in trades to the O's may have a case of the HUBS--unless we get one of their competent corner outfielders back or there is a follow on deal. If you ignore each teams needs and strengths in forming a deal, you may have HUBS.
And those who think a trade for Santana that doesn't deal with shedding a similar amount of payroll also may suffer from HUBS. I think Neil pointed out that last year's payroll was $115 million and JH has indicated he has a budget of about $120 million this year. He did shed some payroll, but there likely isn't room for Santana--unless someone like Rameriz goes the other way. You may well be able to break the budget for a short term solution when the NLCS is in site (like a Burnett with one year remaining), but 5 years at $25 million or so for Santana isn't going to happen.
Those who think our farm system has most of the answers to our needs may be suffering from HUBS. And those who think our farm system can meet few of our needs also may be suffering from HUBS. Payroll economics dictates that teams have to "grow their own" for several spots on the roster. So it's important that Soto and Pie or Fuld perform because they will get a chance as did Theriot, Marmol and others. We've committed our big bucks elsewhere.
Realistically today, most top performers are able to show that their dad's and mom's are named Prima and Donna. So if you don't think these players get their "perks", you may be suffering from HUBS. That would likely apply to those Faithful who suggest batting Soriano somewhere other than leadoff.
The Faithful are blessed with many Top Guns in our midst too. They are usually thoughtful, practical and even visionary. Recent visionaries include those suggesting trades of Murton and others for people like Peralta and Cain. Peralta is likely available and would fix a SS failure, if it occurs, and Cain could be a three-for-one, affordable deal (because he's young) for a stud pitcher should SF committ to a re-build.
I get HUBS standing for repeatedly suggesting that Burnett is our answer for a stud pitcher and that Seth Smith would merit ROY consideraton if he could play every day. One has an injury history and the other didn't make Baseball America's Top 10 list for Rockies, prospects. Like the rest of us, I'm occasionally wrong--but never in doubt.
jason b,
I agree with you on all aspects. Wiuld be nice though that we could develop a star every once in a while.
I also had hopes for Corey- that sputtered out.
Farnsworth and his arm, Wow!!!! The next Lee Smith
But his fastball had no movement and he had no control.
By the way, I forgot Zambrano. Who I like as a Cub but his mental sways are keeping him from being all he can be (not as much as people think).
I posted a long time ago my theory on are farm system. Very rarely dowe go through a all out rebuilding process. This is because of the pressure to win a World Series that no other professional team, period, has. If we did a rebuilding process like the A's and the Orioles seem to be doing. The GM would be hung up by his toes (or something else). Sure we have had salary dumps before the trade deadline of a bad season. But, nothing like other teams. So we don't get the already proven prospects that a rebuilding season would give us. We are totally dependent on the draft and looking 5 years in the future to see if a 18 year old from blah, blah, blah High School will develop into a star. Which is fine. But you got to spend money and get your stars threw free agency then. And only in the last few years have we done that which gives me some hope that soon we may very well be in the World Series.
GuRu Ru or Ga Gog gles... I'm not sure which I have on right now. Whatever the case I expect to see some improvement this year from TheRiot. And let me be the first (on this thread) to go on record. Theriot will improve his OBP 50 points to put him in the .375 range. I also expect this will translate into more than 100 runs scored (80 last year). Also I expect better defensive from him as well in this his second (first full) year at short.
Im with Lew. (Who would have saw that coming?)
At 6:06 p.m. tonight, the Baltimore Sun posted a story saying that the Bedard deal is at a stalemate. MacPhail is quoted extensively, and my take is that he has been blindsided by Angelos and has no idea what happens next. The Mariners GM seems to offer some cover for Andy--but the O's ship is on the rocks in my view.
Isn't being a Cub fan synonymous with wearing Cubbie Blue goggles? Heck, I'll be 31 here soon and 25+ years of following Cubs baseball the only thing that keeps me going is perpetual hope- that somehow this year is different. Isn't that what separates us from the bitter South Siders? So, I will keep my goggles on and proceed to be overly "opta-misty" about our chances in 2008. After 100 years of futility we are all entitled to have that I told you so moment about the team we invest so much in!
Gary
JimK....you got me thinking with that HUBS thing and let me tell you, aside of your complicated Shaekesperean posts, not only you are the HUBS president., 'butt' you are also a client.
What do you propose then? Coco Crisp? Really...
Hey I consider Murton a good player but the fact is has not taken serious advantage of his opportunities and obviously has nowhere to play with Soriano in lf and FUku in rf. Do you want to give him a chance in CF or have him off the bench? Why waste that talent in the bench and AAA when teams like the Padres crave him and value can be returned for once?
Why not Santana? Because of the big contract? You know somebody will pay for it and I, for once, want it to be the Cubs instead of the damn Yankees or Red Sox...our team makes money in their neighborhood ,or at least we are one of the 6 High Market teams that also include the Mets,Dodgers and Angels...If the payroll is 105million now why not 130 if it takes us to the dance? The thing is that you are used to loosing and you don't expect the owners to pay some more. I am not being unreasonable here, just think for a minute HONESTLY what one move do you make to boost this team? If you ask me, and I know I’m not so smart and have some HUBS, but Don't tell me that if we have a rotation of Santana,Zambrano,Lilly,Hill and whomever...by the start of the season, that the Cubs won't be the favorites at least to win the National League if not to win the World Series. I am sick of waiting for management to attack the problems we have that besides FUKu are still the same since the Arizona Derby @ the playoffs.
I have said this all along… Jim Hendry has the chance to either go down as hero this season or go down as more of the same this season. Any way he will be fired with the new management unless, unless, unless he wins it all….Only then the new management will seem foolish to let him go at least for a year or two. If you don’t want to sacrifice the farm, that we all know how well it is ranked, for a couple of players that include a stud pitcher….it is ok with me but get something done and spend the cash that the new owner will spend. He can then trade everybody and rebuild if he wants, but as long as he is not present…Why, Damnit, why save his cash or farm????What is 25 more million a year on a franchise estimated well over 600???????????????????????????????????
Don’t give me no HUBS dude. Give me darn action.
_Dusty Baker
A thought.
* This morning on ESPN radio 1000 Crane Kenney mentioned that Jim Hendry was close to completing two big trades. (Roberts? Bedard? Greene?
Furcal? Blanton? Harden?)
By the way Jimk...I love thy posts!
Jim (Tinley Park): When did Furcal come into the picture? I don't remember hearing anything. Were all those names mentioned on ESPN Radio or is this your wishful thinking?
Lew:
Crane Kenney didn't mention any names.
Furcal and Harden were my sleeper moves.
How about you? do you see any surprise moves?
Jim (TP)
Well, at this point any deal Baltimore makes may come as a surprise.
I've been hoping the Cubs would acquire Blanton, but with no talk on the matter in weeks and weeks I don't see that happening.
This may not be a surprise but I've been thinking that Fontenot may be a trade candidate. DeRo is locked in there; so with any addition to the middle infield Fontenot IMO becomes expendible. Why has nobody mentioned him all offseason?
Thanks Agustin for shining some light on my positions. There's a lot more sunshine where you are--and maybe rum too. Not being able to see goes with time spent in HUBS land. And it's not a good place to stop and smell the roses either. So I try to spend as little time there as possible.
For the record, I don't say to keep Murton. I've suggested earlier that there ought to be a deal possible with Cleveland because they badly need corner outfielders. I have mentioned Crisp but mainly as less risky than Pie--who so far hasn't hit--especially lefties. And as a way to swap our unhappy Marquis for their unhappy Crisp. He was my next best if we didn't have Roberts to bat second. And I'm the guy who thought it was possible to get Billingsley or Lowe or Burnett before the Dodgers and Jays met some of their needs with players that we could have helped them with. JH wasn't as quick and good as I thought he could be.
I'm now ready to go with Pie or Fuld and do feel that Roberts is about as expensive a player as JH can budget. That could change in a one-year-or-so cmmittment for a Burnett--when (not if) we are 8 above 500 after 40 games. There is no question that you and I want to win now!
I'm not sure of this but I think since 2000 the D-backs, Marlins, Cardinals and a non-red Sox team have won the World Series with payrolls under $80 million and I don't think the Yankees with their $150 million + payrolls have won. So we can find a way--even if we can't afford the players and dollars it takes to get Santana. LOL
Let me put my Cubbie Goggles on, Theriot will have a break out year, hitting in the 2 hole, behind Soriano, Soriano will steal 50 bases, the Daily Double will return to Wrigley. Lee will find his home run swing again and hit 40 plus, Ramirez will hit 50, with Fukudome protecting him in the order. Soto will make the Allstar team, and he will be throwing people out consistently, which the cubs have lacked..... Zambrano will win 20, and Lilly will win 18, Leiber will be a dominating force, and Marmol will have 40 plus saves, with Woods setting him up.... and the cubs starters will go atleast 7 innings....... Fuld will win the starting job in Center, and will hit over 300, and become a fan favorite at Wrigley, Fukudome will throw out atleast 3 players at first on Ground Balls, and teams will be afraid to run on him.....Go Cubs...
Off to work on a rainy, rainy day. JimK...good points there. I still think that Santana = our World Series...Burnett, Bedard and Blanton, MAYBE. OR Maybe a pleasant surpise like one of Gallagher, Mateo, Ceda, Veal, Samardija or Hart stepping up and wining 15 or more.
Jim [Tinley] , Lew; I have a feeling that we are getting Khalil Greene this week. Is that good or bad? I'm not sure yet but he is a solid defender and has serious pop.