Roberts would be the perfect acquisition. I would even consider making our AAA center fielder (Pie) part of the deal.

Brian Roberts is what we need too make this team go but let's get both.

Good analysis. Thank you. I, too, can't see the Cubs trading Ramirez this year. We have a core of Ramirez, Lee, Soriano, and DeRosa that should be close to untouchable for the next year or two.

Are we going to listen to Mordecai, who was born in 1876 and had three fingers on his pitching hand? At his age, he has to be on Cialis and suffer from blurred vision. Well maybe we should--because he could pitch and there's something to be said for keeping your core group.

But Neil's thoughts get the creative juices (bad word) flowing. We could switch from our three Cubs for one stud thoughts and reverse the numbers. I would consider Aram, Ceda and Marshall for Billingsley, LaRoche, Furcal and Upton. LaRoche (.315-19-81 at AA and AAA)would play third, Furcal short and DeRosa second. Billingsley gives us a likely stud righthander and Upton projects higher than Marshall. The LA site writer says the Dodgers are now looking for the veteran third baseman to finish their post season work. Let's do it and take no prisoners in 2008. JimK

If it's a lefthanded hitter we're after, why not pursue one who plays the position that represents the biggest remaining concern for 2008 at a cost that doesn't cripple the farm system? Would the Reds trade Josh Hamilton for Sean Marshall? Marshall and Murton? Marshall and Patterson?

JimK,

Furcal as our shortstop? I would trade A-Ram away just to get him. But would Colleti (Dodgers GM) take the bait?

As for La Roche, he hasn't been given enough playing time, and I doubt he'll ever get one. He'd been playing infield(3B?) AND outfield(LF).

It's not that I doubt his performance out of nothing but plate-appearance, but he's not proven, and the trading of our top prospect for another top prospect sounds just not right. We need Major-ready guy like Roberts to juice up our lineup (oops, excuse me).
:-p

I rather see Figgins than Roberts.

I cant believe im saying this, but someone on psd said something very interesting. They showed some article saying that the cubs are talking to some AL team about marquis, and then there was another rumor about burnett. So he said maybe Hnedry is putting a package of Marquis and some others for Burnett...I know i'm dreaming, but what if Hendry did this deal and then traded for Roberts and Bedard...oooo it would be glorious!!

Please. You'd have to trade the Cubs top ten prospects and then some (including Rich Hill) to get all three of those guys. Let's be reasonable.

Dorasaga...They might argue about Billingsley and want to substitute Lowe, but I think they would do the deal. They were disappointed last season with Furcal's back issues and resulting down year, and they think their AA-AAA Player of the year, Hu, is ready to replace him at a much lower cost. Furcall is in his last contract year. LaRoche's performance at AA and AAA suggests he can play third in the majors now. If necessary, DeRosa goes to third and Theriot to second.

Uniball...I like Hamilton too. And the Reds would likely do something like you propose. I guess my concerns are that Pie may be ready by mid-season, and I don't want to help the Reds who are in our division. JimK

Hendry supposedly talked to the Reds about a Marshall/Hamilton swap. Seems fair, but the Reds want Rich Hill (which is way too much) instead of Marshall. Doesn't look like anything will happen along these lines at this point as the Cubs and Reds were too far apart.

I am not confident that Pie is going to get it anytime soon. His stats in winter ball aren't much better than they were last year with the big league club. I don't want to make the Corey Patterson mistake all over again. If it takes more than Marshall to get Hamilton, give the Reds Cedeno or something else (another young pitcher?) to sweeten the deal. Their roster is in sorry shape. It shouldn't be difficult to find a deal that makes them better, gets us Hamilton, and doesn't do a lot to hurt our 40-man roster.

Actually, Phil Rogers was saying in an article today that Pie's hitting is better than what the stat line shows, and that he is a little above the average of the league he plays in. I'm not worried about CF, cuz i like the idea of letting Fuld and Pie battle for it. And then if neither works, we can move fukodome over and play deroas in right...hopefully we can get roberts which will allow us to put derosa in right, otherwise we will be looking at a combination or riot/fontenot/cedeno in the middle infield

Forget about Phil Rogers. Stats don't lie and these numbers are awful:

Felix Pie - OF Cubs
.239/.308/.385, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 28/10 K/BB, 6 SB in 109 AB

Even if he's had some bad luck, slightly better than average in winter ball hardly equates to success in the majors. Let us not forget that Cedeno tore up winter ball and then laid a huge egg in the bigs.

By all accounts, Fukudome should not be considered for the everyday CF job. He can fill in when needed, but would be a defensive liability if he had to play there everyday - especially if he was playing beside DeRosa. If you're considering Fuld or Pie to start the season, you should be worried because neither one of them has proven that he can hit big league pitching. We know that DeRosa can hit big league pitching and we know that he can field well enough to play 2B every day. The question that remains is in CF. That's where our focus should be.

I agree with Phil Rogers. I think Pie is a young hitter who has some issues to work out that need to be worked out at the big league level.
D Lee is another player who struggled at the AAA/MLB border in terms of becoming a professional hitter. Pitchers could get D Lee out with fastballs inside. The Padres wanted to keep him in AAA and D Lee's father, who played professionally in Japan thought it was something that could only be remedied by Big League pitching. After he went to the Marlins, he got MLB time to work out this deficiancy. It took until 2004 when he was with the Cubs to show he can clearly handle inside pitches.
Back to Pie, I think his bat can be dangerous. I also predict he won't have a high batting average. But he can be a valuable bat in the lineup. By that I mean; I hope he could put together some decent power numbers, like handfuls of extra base hits, but he would need to do something because the fans wouldn't be as happy as when Andruw Jones bats .225.

I am 100% comfortable with Pie in CF. Even if he doesn't put up offensive numbers which I do think will come in time he will make for an incredibly athletic outfield which will help the pitching staff tremendously. Anybody remember how Patterson would take bad routes to balls in the gaps or how Jones would misjudge every ball in his direction in CF...?

The Roberts or Figgins acquisition is all I ask for on offense. Possibly a Brad Wilkerson signing too to add depth to the OF. This lineup will score runs:

Roberts/Figgins (switch)
Soriano (righty)
FUK (lefty)
Lee (righty)
ARAM (righty)
Soto (righty)
Pie (righty)
Theriot (righty)
9 hole

Pie in CF, FUK in RF, Roberts at 2nd, and Soto over Barrett/Kendall will also decrease runs allowed because of the added defense. I would bet this lineup defensively alone would add 3-5 wins to this ballclub. The acquisition of a Burnett and/or Colon would add another 3-5 wins. A much more reliable bullpen than the beginning of last year will blow 5 less leads which should translate in wins (3-5?).

This team will look like a playoff team with just 2-4 more moves in my opinion. Wilkerson and Colon should be easy moves, they are FA's coming off of down years. Roberts/Figgins will be tough but very doable and if JH can pull the rabbit out of his but and acquire Burnett and get rid of Marquis in the same deal I will start to get that magical feeling reminiscent of circa '03.

Cliff...I agree that Roberts and Burnett would help a lot and have said so earlier. I disagree on Fukudome in center--unless "Moo Sha, Moo Sha" really wants to play center. If he prefers right, let him play right while he gets his National League feet on the ground. Pie is still too iffy for me, and Roberts, Theriot and Pie could be one too many "table setters" in the lineup--especially if Pie doesn't get on base often. We were eighth in runs and home runs and ninth in RBI's last year.

Colon scares me. He looks like a fat Hulk Hogan, and you wonder if he breaks into pieces on his next outing.

Uniball... I don't think its a pipe dream to look at my Dodger deal as Aram for Billingsley, LaRoche and Upton and Ceda and Marshall for Furcall. LA doesn't want Furcall and LA does want a proven 30 homerun--100 RBI guy at third. JimK

I don't think that's enough for the Dodgers to deal Furcal, but I do think the Dodgers might do the portion you propose involving ARam for Billingsly, LaRoche and Upton (I didn't even know there was an Upton in the Dodgers organization, but so long as the third guy is a minor leaguer not named Elbert, Kershaw, McDonald, or Meleon, they might go for it). It's an interesting idea and I could see the argument for making the deal, but it leaves a real hole in the middle of our line-up so I'd probably pass.

David and others...I apologize. I did mean Elbert and don't know where the mysterious Upton came from.

The wire reports are saying that JH still has interest in Joe Nathan and Bedard. They also say that the Rox would like to move lefty setup man/closer Brian Fuentes because they don't want to handle his $7 million contract. Fuentes would be a great addition. JimK

Cliff, I like your thinking. I dont find Wilkerson to be important though and Felix is a Lefty.

People, Marshall for Hamilton should be enough for a team that lacks starting pitching and has many outfielders. If they don't want to do the swap, let em' burn. And please, please stop on the Aramis thing. He is not going anywhere. The only better third baseman fit would be A-Rod and even JH can't outbid the Yankees!

BTW Rafael Furcal??? Please give me a break. The only diference between him and Theriot is .004 in avg, 3 hr and 7rbi. Check the stats… and defensively Theriot has better percentage. He also stole more Bases than Furcal.

Sorry I meant 2 RBIS

I keep analyzing these trades that other teams have made in the offseason, and I can honestly say that with the exception the 'Stros giving up WAY too much to get Tejada, nobody has really given up much in terms of top prospects.

If you look at the stats of the guys the D'Backs gave up for Haren, they were really underwhelming....

Well, as I'm typing this, I realize Tigers and Marlins did exchange some highly talented guys....but that was for Willis AND Cabrera. I think overall, we have decent talent in the minors....decent talent enough not to overpay for mediocre talent of say----I don't know---TRACHSEL!!!!

IMO, Moore, Cherry, and maybe Patterson would've been worth Roberts. But Gallagher?!?! You gotta be kidding me.

Again, I have no idea who's brainwashed everybody into believing the 29 year old Bedard is on par with a Santana, or just below....hmmmmmmm Stats don't lie, and he's not that great. He DID have a terrible team behind him, but his stats just don't measure up to giving up much talent for, and certainly not our top 6-7 guys-----hell, even the D'Backs and Tigers didn't give up the farm to get quality----and these are 29 and 31 (Bedard and Roberts) year olds that we're talking about. Cabrera, Willis, and Haren were all 5 or more years younger and in their prime.

The days of giving up good talent for veterans approaching their declining years should be OVER by now....Haven't we learned anything?!?!?

I mean, I've even heard Marmol being mentioned....Are you guys okay with that? Okay, maybe some are okay with trading our only reliable reliever last year....maybe some are okay with trading Hill, our young, effective starter....Maybe some are okay with trading our top pitching prospect who did a decent job last year-Gallagher....But for whom? Bedard? We already have effective lefties in Hill, Lilly, and Marshall. And Roberts? He can't play short, and minus his speed, he can't duplicate what DeRosa gave us last year. I don't foresee DeRosa playing SS, and he's certainly not going to play RF with Fukodome there, and his production is too valuable to place on the bench most of the time. Now, I could see a trade of Marshall for, say, Josh Hamilton, as he'd be insurance for Pie in CF and a great bat off the bench.

I'll reiterate, as I have in the past...Here's what the Cubs need to do to be effective next year:

1)Trade Marquis for two mid-level prospects
2)Trade Dempster for one mid-level prospect and one low-level prospect
3)Give CF to Pie, no questions asked, but acquire Hamilton as insurance
4)A platoon of Theriot/Cedeno isn't the worst thing that could happen. No shortstops are available, unless we miraculously find one in the minors via trade (unlikely). I actually would like Cedeno to get one more shot----he's still fairly young---maybe he can put it all together
5)Gallagher should replace Marquis in the rotation
6)Hart should replace Marshall if he's traded for Hamilton
7)Petrick should be given a shot in the pen, and it should consist of: Petrick, Eyre, Howry, Marmol, Ascanio, Lahey, and Wood....I'd say Wuertz, but he's too risky, and likes to put guys on base all too often for my liking.

I honestly think that trading Marquis, Dempster, and Marshall for prospects and Hamilton, respectively, would be an EXCELLENT move....you reload your system for the future, and get insurance for Pie in CF, the one weak link in our lineup right now.

The pen should be improved, the rotation with Hart and Gallagher should also be much improved. Sure, it'd be nice to have Figgins, Bedard, and Roberts....but at what cost? Is it worth losing out on your top prospects like Gallagher, Samardzija, Veal, Colvin, Donaldson, Patterson, Pie, etc., on the cheap---sure, high risk, high reward....but is it worth it? If you obtain Roberts, then you block a Tony Thomas in the long run...I think Thomas could turn into a Figgins eventually, but who knows

Augustin,

I strongly recommend you check Furcal's stats for the past 3 years. He's injured, but before this, he had one of the best out-of-zone fielding and OBP in the league (check fangraphs.com), as a shortstop. And we all know how bad most shortstops hit.

Pie is in transition (this past season he was working with his steps), and he should be given more chances. There's not a whole lot of 5-tools players as centerfielder.

The Cubs seriously needs a better rotation and veteran SS/2B who can get on base. With Soriano, Pie/Fuld/etc., and Fuk, I think our outfield is the least to worry.

By the way, cliff,

If we take sabermetrics into account, and understand that RAAA (Runs Allowed Above Average) estimates neutralized win best, then the model proved that:

10-run equals 1-win.

A good fielder ought to save 10 runs to contribute one complete win, which really adds up easily if he can avoid defensive misplays at crucial moments with runner(s) on scoring-position. This not means that the fielder catches an out-of-zone flyball or strong groundball but also checks the runner not daring to advance. He needs to have the tools and the fundamentals to work out in a stretch for the 162-games season.

Theriot had some problem with his stamina, it seems, but given that he'd only played one full season so far, he's still not tested. The same goes with those who haven't played even a whole season: Pie, Fuld, Fontenot, etc. But of course, Sweet Lou is no patient man, and he'll demolish a player if he can't perform progressively.

This is why for a winning team, I would prefer take Furcal before we have a young arm ready to field shortstop a full season.

Dorasaga, Furcal was injured? he had 581 AB's, that is more than 90% of the league. He did have a bad season, relatively to his stats, last year...Steroids anyone? My problem is that you said you would trade Aramis Ramirez for him and you say "you are not sure if the Dodgers would take that bait?"
You would give up a franchise player to get a Furcal? Hey man you allways make very good arguments, I just think on this one you went a little off.
If you want I'll take last year stats to compare Furcal to Aramis, who I suppose you would replace with a young unproven LaRoach.
Aramis; 291avg/38hr/119rbi/93runs
Rafael; 300avg/15hr/66rbi/113runs

in 96 Ab Laroach hit .226

Augustin, I completely agree with you. Ramirez isn't going ANYWHERE, and why on earth would we want him to get rid of him, unless it is for A-Rod, and that ain't going to happen.

Aaron you hit the nail on the head with Pie, he needs to be our center fielder this year. Just let the kid play. I don't know about all of you, but I am stoked to see our outfield of Soriano, Pie, and Kosuke. You heard it here first, We will lead the league in outfield assist this year.

For the startig rotation, Hart really impressed me last year, and I am ready to see what Gallagher can do. I think it is going to be a fun competition to watch in ST between those two and Marshall. Let's hope by then Marquis is not even in the picture(trade).

As far as Roberts I would still like to have him. But lets hope Hendry can do it without giving up any of our top pitching prospects.

But if Hendry doesn't make anymore moves this year, I will still be very hapy with this team. Lets not forget this guys, last year from June 2nd on, we had the 2nd BEST record in baseball behind the Yankees. Once Lou had everything figured out we started to roll. And I really feel we are a better team right now than we were at the end of last year.

Fukudome, is a much better option than we had last year in Right with Jones and Floyd. Granted he isn't proven in the Majors yet, but still an improvement. Better arm than Jones noodle, and faster than old man Floyd.

Soto - can actually throw a runner out, should bring more power and hopefully a better average than, Barrett, Bowen, Hill, Kendall.

Pie - will bring very good defense, and has that energy about him. Soriano also seems to do better with him on the team. If he can find it offensively, watch out!

Nick...you're right on. Between Soto and Fukodome we should experience 30+ HR's and 140+ RBI's (combined). They are MAJOR upgrades over Jones and Kendall (both retreads in the Traschel mode).

I also agree that with Hart, Gallagher, Petrick, Ascancio, Ceda, Veal, etc we have the potential for great slot roles. I agree with Aaron that we should trade Marquis, Dempster and Wurtz for some additional farm potential, or package in some fashion for a formidable (not another re-tread) starter. I really like the idea of Burnett. No worse of a gamble than Prior was.

Without weighing in on whether we should or should not try to deal for Furcal, I just want to point out that even though Furcal had 581 AB's last season, Dorasaga is correct that Furcal was playing hurt for much of the first part of the season (check out news reports on him from April/May of last year on him) and the injury likely lingered and effected his performance all year. I think it was his ankle, but can't remember exactly.

augustin,

My bad. I didn't complete my thought. JimK brought up a big trade: "I would consider Aram, Ceda and Marshall for Billingsley, LaRoche, Furcal and UptonElbert." I was thinking of this 3-to-3 trade.

A-Ram is a good third baseman, and I was thinking Cedano as the bait. But Furcal was a superior shortstop for four years before he got injured. And I think manager Little overplayed him. Furcal was put back to DL in September, a slap-back to Little's stubborness.

But again, like I said, I doubt LaRoche will live to the hype. And an unproven LaRoche who most likely would take 3rd base if A-Ram would be traded for this 3-to-3 deal, to me, is much riskier than a proven A-Ram.

I would like to see Furcal and Roberts traded individually and take our SS and 2B. Furcal could be a backup if Theriot couldn't progress.

Hey guys, I love all the thoughtful comments on this site. I check it everyday, but I don't post very often - great stuff on here. Anyway, here are my two cents. I think this team, as is, is VERY good, but I don't think they're quite ready to be sure-fire contenders. The Fukodome signing is a great start, but I still think we need a couple upgrades, and IMO those upgrades should be in areas that are question marks right now. We pretty much know, and appreciate, what we're going to get from most of the guys on this team (soriano, lee, aram, big z, lilly) but honestly, guys like Theriot and Pie are still offensive question marks (Soto is a bit of a question mark, too, but given how hard it is to get a decent catcher, I think we're ok to stick with him). I love both of those kids and I'd love to see them thrive, but they just haven't proven themselves yet. Still, they both bring enough to the table in terms of defense, speed, and heart that having one of them on the everyday starting roster is manageable, but I don't think you can start both of them everyday and expect to knock off teams like the bosox who have proven talent all over the lineup. You give the kids a chance when proven guys in their prime are for some reason stinking it up (what Dusty somehow could not do), and sometimes the kids work out (see Ellsbury, Jacoby), but when you're a team like the Cubs that have plenty of resources, you don't want to rely on the kids from day one. I believe this team is a starting pitcher and either SS or CF with high OBP (to bat second) away from being just plain scary, and I'd be willing to trade just about any guy that's relatively unproven (murton, cedeno, pie, patterson, veal, gallagher, marshall, theriot, fuld, marquis or anybody from the farm) to make that happen. Let's win this thing.