Exploring the Possibilities - Part Two

By Neil on November 27, 2007 14 Vote 0 Votes

After the long weekend it was back to business for baseball on Monday. Jim Hendry completed one of his off-season goals by resigning Kerry Wood to a 1-year contract. The Cubs still have several more questions to answer this winter. With the Winter Meetings six days away, Jim Hendry was on WGN Radio Monday night with Dave Kaplan and discussed several of his team's needs and what they are looking to add this off-season.

Here is Part Two....

A few highlights from Kaplan's Interview with Jim Hendry

Hendry stated once the decision was made to move Ryan Dempster back to the starting rotation, they thought they had to bring Wood back. Hendry said he was fearful of losing Wood to another team with the way he pitched in September. The Cubs are looking for Dempster to give them depth in the rotation and Hendry mentioned Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher would compete for jobs in the starting rotation in the spring.

Hendry stated Gallagher is a much better pitcher than he showed last season. He said the Cubs could have made a mistake in promoting Gallagher too early last year. Gallagher had a good season in the AFL (0-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 8 games, 2 starts, gave up 2 runs on 12 hits, walked 4 and struck out 13 in 16 innings) and Hendry stated Gallagher is considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

Hendry mentioned Kevin Hart will also compete for a spot in the rotation as well as Piniella's long man out of the pen.

With Wood signed, Hendry and Kaplan discussed what other pieces Hendry would like to add. Hendry said his number one target is adding a left-handed power-hitting outfielder. Hendry went on to say he would like to add a left-handed or switch hitting infielder (he did not mention Kaz Matsui by name) and to find a versatile player with speed off the bench.

Hendry discussed Sam Fuld, Felix Pie and Mark Prior....those notes have been added below.

Felix Pie

With Jacque Jones in the Motor City, the Cubs have handed over the starting centerfielder job to the very talented, yet underachieving, Felix Pie. Pie has been the Cubs top prospect, seemingly forever, but his first shot in the big leagues did not match the hype. Pie is a winner and a very good defender. He showed how good he can be in the field but struggled at the plate. Pie hit .215 (38-for-177)/.271/.333 with 3 home runs, 9 doubles, 3 triples, 8 stolen bases and 20 RBI's in his first 87 games with the Cubs....but he was even worse against southpaws (.111/.158/.111).

Gerald Perry has been with Pie this winter in the Dominican and he has also received visits from Bobby Dernier and Ryne Sandberg. The Cubs would like Pie to shorten his swing but Perry's work with Pie has not paid dividends yet. Through the first 21 games for Licey, Pie is hitting .208 (15-for-72) with a .278 OBP and a .306 SLG (4 doubles, 1 home run, 7 walks and 8 RBI's with 16 strikeouts).

Do the Cubs go into next season with Pie being their main option in center or do they try to sign a veteran for Plan 'B'? A report around a month ago mentioned Sam Fuld could be an option in center if Pie fails to take the job he is being given. Hendry confirmed that report in an interview with Dave Kaplan on WGN Radio on Monday night. But Fuld has yet to record a hit at the big league level and up the middle defense is very important to a team's success.... Hendry said Pie would compete for the Cubs centerfield spot with Sam Fuld.

Centerfield has been a big question mark for the Cubs for many years and if Pie cannot take the next step, Piniella could continue to have a big hole in his outfield that must be filled. Aaron Rowand and Andruw Jones are available but with both players seeking a long-term contract and both being right handed, neither figure to be in the Cubs' off-season plans. Pie has proven he has the talent, now it is up to him to take the next step.

Sam Fuld

Sam Fuld turned heads last September with his defense. Fuld made a game saving catch in St. Louis and turned in one of the best catches in the last 20 years at Wrigley Field. Fuld did not record a hit in his first 6 big league at bats but did draw 3 walks and scored 3 runs. Fuld is projected as a fourth outfielder by most and not a starter.

Fuld was very impressive in the Arizona Fall League and finished second in the league in hitting.... .402/.492/.626 with a 1.118 OPS. Fuld hit 11 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, walked 17 times and stole 10 bases in 29 games. Fuld's play and work ethic in the AFL resulted in winning the Stenson Award. Hendry talked to Dave Kaplan about Fuld on Monday night. He brought up Fuld's very good defense and the fact he had an excellent fall in the desert.

While Fuld could give Piniella depth off the bench and a solid, late-inning defensive replacement (Baseball America stated Fuld is the best defensive outfielder in the Cubs' system) he does not figure to be an everyday starter on a team with expectations of playing games in October.

How Piniella uses Fuld will depend on the performance of Felix Pie and if the Cubs fill their need for a productive right fielder. However, Jim Hendry must think of Fuld as the 24th man on the Opening Day roster, not the 22nd.

Kenny Lofton

Should Jim Hendry dig out the phone number of Lofton's agent and take another flier on the 40-year old outfielder? Kenny Lofton will turn 41 on May 31st and while his skills have diminished, he had a solid season in 2007. Lofton played in 136 games for the Rangers and the Indians. He posted a .296/.367/.414/.781 line with 7 home runs and 38 RBI's....other than the RBI totals better numbers than the ones posted by Jacque Jones (Jones in the second half .332/.374/.458/.832 with 3 home runs and 46 RBI's. Lofton in the second half .290/.343/.394/.737 with 1 home run and 18 RBI's). At the age of 40, Lofton stole 23 bases and was caught 7 times. Ryan Theriot led the Cubs with 28 steals, he was caught 4 times and Alfonso Soriano stole 19 and was thrown out 6 times.

Lofton has not been connected to the Cubs by the mainstream media but could give the Cubs an option in center if Felix Pie struggles....plus Lofton could provide Piniella a veteran lefty off the bench with speed. Lofton made $3.85 million in 2006 and $6 million in 2007, he should ask for another 1-year contract somewhere in between. As long as Lofton remains healthy he would be a low risk for the Cubs....Lofton and his winning attitude always makes him attractive to a contender at the trading deadline.

Carl Crawford

The Cubs are rumored to be interested in trading for Carl Crawford, but the Tampa Bay Rays are notoriously difficult to deal with. Several rumors, a couple of weeks back, indicated Jim Hendry had put together a package to offer the Rays for Crawford. Several players were rumored to be in "the package" but a report late last week indicated the Rays had not put Crawford on the trading block....

What would it take for Hendry to put Crawford in blue pinstripes? Would that even be the right move for the Cubs? Crawford is very talented and his offensive numbers have increased the last four seasons (.296/.331/.450/.781/11/55 in 2004, .301/.331/.469/.800/15/81 in 2005, .305/.348/.482/.830/18/77 in 2006 and .315/.355/.466/.821/11/80 in 2007) but he has not played right field at the Major League level and has only played 10 games in center since playing 30 games for Piniella in centerfield in 2004.

Crawford is signed through the 2008 season with club options for 2009 and 2010. Crawford will make $5.25 million next season....the club option for 2009 is $8.25 million (with a $2.5 million dollar buyout) and Crawford is scheduled to make $10 million in 2010 (with a $1.25 million dollar buyout).

Would giving up a couple of top prospects and creating other holes in other positions be worth trading for a player without any big league experience in right field? Crawford would be an upgrade offensively but learning a new position could have a 'Soriano-effect' on his production at the plate.

Ryan Church

Bruce Miles stated last week Ryan Church is on the Cubs radar. The question with Church is what would it take to pry Church from the Nationals? Jim Bowden and Stan Kasten have a reputation of being difficult to deal with. Church will not turn 30 until next October and has more experience in right field than Carl Crawford. Church is coming off his first full season at the Major League level.

Ryan Church hit .272 last season with the Nationals with a .349 OBP, a .464 SLG and a .813 OPS....15 home runs and 70 RBI's in 144 games. Church's lefty-righty splits are a little concerning. Church hit .229 with a .316 OPB with only 1 home run and 19 RBI's in 118 at bats. Against righties.... .287 with a .360 OBP, a .506 SLG and a .866 OPS in 352 at bats. Church has played 7 career games at Wrigley.... .250 (5-for-20)/.348/.400/.748 without a home run and 3 doubles.

With his limited experience, would trading for Church be a viable option for Jim Hendry, or more of a back-up plan of a back-up plan?

Ryan Theriot

Ryan Theriot became a fan favorite toward the end of 2006. He finished the season strong and started camp last spring hoping to make the Opening Day roster. Theriot not only made the roster but eventually took over the starting job at shortstop and forced the Cubs to move Cesar Izturis to the Pirates.

Theriot had a solid first full season at the big league level (.266/.326/.346 with 3 home runs, 45 RBI's, 30 doubles, 2 triples, 80 runs scored and 28 stolen bases) but struggled down the stretch (.202/.257/.263/.520 with 4 doubles, a triple and 6 RBI's). Theriot provided a much-needed spark in the first half (.276/.338/.354) and stepped in for Alfonso Soriano when he missed nearly a month late in the season. Theriot helped led the Cubs back into the race with a spectacular July.... .348/.437/.483/.920 with 2 home runs, 6 doubles and 6 RBI's.

But Theriot's second half (.257/.315/.339/.654 with 15 doubles, a triple, 2 home runs and 20 RBI's) has raised a lot of questions....the Cubs' concerns with Theriot have forced them to look at adding Kaz Matsui as a possible upgrade. Not only did Theriot struggle at the plate but showed signs of fatigue in the field as well. While Theriot's range and arm were in question, his play at short appeared to get progressively worse at the season wore on.

Theriot plays the game the way it should be played....he appears to give a 100% every time he takes the field.

Theriot's home-road splits are very concerning but should improve with more experience. Theriot hit .298/.340/.389 with a .729 OPS at Wrigley while hitting just .230/.311/.298 with a .609 OPS on the road.

Should the Cubs attempt to upgrade this position, in an incredibly weak market, or give Theriot another shot to improve on his first full season? Adding Matsui would give Piniella flexibility.... but would Matsui be an upgrade over Theriot?

Mark DeRosa

Mark DeRosa had an impressive first season for the Cubs. DeRosa played six different positions and in one game against the Astros in July, played three different positions. DeRosa was arguably the Cubs' first half MVP (.291/.365/.452 with a .817 OPS, 7 home runs, 17 doubles, 2 triples and 49 RBI's), he did slow down in the second half with his power numbers declining (.295/.378/.386 with a .764 OPS, 3 home runs, 11 doubles, 1 triple and 23 RBI's). His final line for the year was.... .293/.371/.420/.792/10/72/28 doubles/3 triples. DeRosa's biggest flaw at the plate, that most be improved upon, was his propensity to ground into double plays.

Would DeRosa better serve Piniella once again in the super utility role, or would he be better off playing everyday at 2nd base? By the numbers, DeRosa did better at the plate with regular starting time at one position down the stretch. But a player that can play multiple positions, especially at Wrigley, could play a big role in August and September. Having DeRosa fill in for Aramis Ramirez, play a few games in right, sub for Derrek Lee and spend some time at 2nd base should keep DeRosa fresh at the plate. However, allowing the middle infielders to gain a comfort level would be hard to accomplish under the scenario of DeRosa floating from position to position on a daily basis.

Jim Hendry has loaded his roster with middle infielders for the last several years. The Cubs currently have 5 on their 40-man roster.... Ryan Theriot, Omar Infante, Ronny Cedeno, Mike Fontenot and Mark DeRosa with both Eric Patterson and Alfonso Soriano being converted infielders. Continuing to run players in and out of those positions will cost the Cubs a lot of games during the season. Lou Piniella must find a double play combination and stick with it, as much as possible, throughout the year.

But defining Mark DeRosa's role, sooner rather than later, is key as Hendry attempts to sculpt a roster to go to camp with in February.

Mark Prior

Will the Cubs non-tender Mark Prior? There have been several reports indicating the Cubs could let the former staff ace walk. It has been reported the Cubs would like to sign Prior to a 1-year contract with a club option for 2009, instead of paying him for another season with the possibility he could get healthy and walk. The Cubs paid Prior, through arbitration, $3.575 million last year....will they work a deal out before the deadline on December 12th?

Jim Hendry discussed Mark Prior on WGN Radio Monday night. Hendry said he has talked with Prior's agent a couple of times in recent weeks. Hendry mentioned it is hard to determine when Prior will be ready to pitch again at the Major League level. Hendry reminded Kaplan it is easier to tell how a pitcher is recovering from Tommy John surgery than from shoulder surgery.

Hendry stated no final decisions have been made concerning Prior's future with the organization but it will be discussed over the next few weeks. Hendry mentioned he must weigh the cost for resigning Prior this year, plus trying to negotiate a possible contract for 2009....Hendry reminded Kaplan that Prior would be a free agent after 2008.

There are two more players that could have been discussed in further detail. While Mike Fontenot gave the Cubs a spark, his future with the Cubs has to be considered as cloudy at best....and then there is Neal Cotts. The Cubs traded for Cotts and he could not regain his form from 2005. Cotts opened the season on the 25-man roster but spent the majority of the year with Iowa as younger players were added to the 40-man roster. Cotts was passed over time and time again. Cotts is arbitration eligible and his future on the North Side should be decided by December 12th.

Bryan

I wonder how many of you guys would have given up on Sandberg after his 1 for 30 start with the Cubs. "Potential" is not a lame quality, and back in the corporate world (and as a CEO) I'll take potential (and help mold it) any day. Because someone is "a producer" doesn't mean that person will fit into the culture (aka team) dynamics. Chemistry is key in any team sport, and if we don't think the Cubs lack some of the productive chemistry we're dillusional. Michael Jordan didn't win championships until a broader team, with each player understanding their particular roles and opportunities, were assembled. And as I recall, Pippen was nothing more than an average offensive weapon when entering the league. But he had potential, and was provided the chance to improve his skills (true, with a great superstar).

I get perplexed by this "win now" mentality at all costs. You build a franchise for today, and the future, and you attempt to leverage/balance the two. I agree with some of the initial posts here in that I'll take character and effort any day.

Do you guys think Soriano earned his $20m last year? A lot of solo homeruns (I know you'll plead the lead off spot here), and what, 70 RBI's. Big deal.

Indeed, some potential talent excels, and some don't. But you don't know if you don't try. It's so easy to take the easy way out and emphasis a "prior track record". How many guys have come with a prior track record and have been busts (with huge contracts).

The Cubs need to take a page from the Braves. They insert a young kid named Escobar, and feel they can unload "proven" Renteria. A few years ago they placed Francouer and McCann as rookies into the starting lineup, and they flourished. And now they've been wise to dump the declining A. Jones because they're willing to nurture and develop a young 5-tool kid. Will the kid be the next Mays? Maybe, maybe not. But you gotta try and give the opportunity.

Gary J

Winter meetings coming up - with Hendry in the same town as all the other GMs I'd be willing to bet at least something of note happens... they've said over and over that the priority this off season for a regular position player is a lefty bat for right field - so this should be an interesting week. Other than Fukudome the player the Cubbies are looking for isn't on the FA market, so my money's on a trade of SOME sort in the not too distant future - especially if Fukudome keeps delaying his decision on whether he's staying in Japan or coming to the states.

It may be simply that they're waiting to see where the possibility of Fukudome playing in the states falls before trading away players to fill the need. If you can get the player you want, and not have to give up anything other than salary to get him (which you'll have to pay to the player you trade for anyway) then it's a preferable route - but riskier too since there's never a guarantee you'll get the guy you're targeting. At least with a trade, the GM has some measure of control and timing is much less of an issue.

Either way... should be a good week upcoming for rumors: -)

I love the hot stove :-)

Jim (Tinley Park)

We need an everyday RF. No more of this platooning.

I'm sorry, I have seen enough of Murton and I want him gone. We need outfielders. Soriano is a lock and the job in CF is for Pie to loose. Angel Pagan is a nice back up. Fuld is still a ? Hendry really needs to pick up a RF and another back up.

agustin rexach

To be on record..."potential" is a very lame quality. Everything and everybody has potential, the question is not if the player has potential but what has he done to prove he is good? Facts...even if it is in high school, stats can trace an honest projection of what will happen in the mlb.

Example... Rich Hill was a STAR in the minors and has done pretty good so far...but he is not a star. Sure he has "potential" to be great, but that remains to be seen. Most of the good guys with potential never even make it to the big leagues. As of today Hill is a good #3 or a solid #4 which is fine. My point is, you do not trade for potential, you trade for proven players...It is just that some are younger and might not be MLB ready but have proven themselves at the level that their ages dictate.

That is why I think we should trade Pie while he has some upside. Indeed he is a 5 tool guy with a ton of potential. To his favor he is extremely young and at 22 he must still get the benefit of the doubt. But the truth is that his minor league [offensive] do not bode well in a honest projection of the future. He simply cannot hit lefties. I, sadly, believe that he will not be much better than his twin brother Corey Patterson. I like Pie and also Corey, I hope he makes it on another team, but I doubt it. I prefer to give the shot to Murton who is PROVEN and just get a solid, power left handed hitter to play CF. [not easy to find either] Do not keep high touted prospects if you are just going to let them hit twice a week. [Murton some how manage to do that too]

Jim (Tinley Park)

Gramps:

Nice to hear from you, stay in touch.

I also agree with you and Dave, Hermida can smoke the ball!

Gramps

I agree with Dave...Jeremy Hermida! Get him if you can. I think he would be a great fit. He made a good impression at the end of the year.

DMac

Two Major League Scouts told me that in the NL, for position players, they would take Cabrera over anyone beside Puhols and Hanley Ramierez to build their team around. This station was premised with one condition....so long as his weight does not get out of control. Despite his size, he still plays surprisingly good defense. Unfortunately, we already have a third basemen locked up, so I dont see where he could fit unless he went back to the outfield (which is where he played when he was younger).

Gary J

If we can get a player that will have an impact on the squad for the next couple of years while not giving up any of the young talent we're already counting on for '08 that have proven they can handle the major league level (Hill and Soto specifically) then we'd be fools not to pull the trigger on something. There's simply no guarantees - remember that we got A Ram for Bobby Hill who at the time was supposed to be the next Sandberg at second.

Every trade has it's issues - for every Pierre for Dontrelle trade that looks horrid in hindsight, there's the Hundley for Lofton deal that helps right now - or the Ramirez for Hill deal that helps for years.

That said though, the reasons that the small market teams are always trading their big stars to "build through youth" is that youth is cheap. The Cubs operate in a market where's that's much less of a consideration.

If we can pick up a proven major leaguer for a 50-50 shot at stud or dud, the club is in the position right now that the core is ready to compete for a title. There are only a few holes to fill this year instead of half a team like last year. If we can get 4 quality additions - we're in VERY good shape to take the division again.

Ryan R

I would agree with SOME youth. But I'm not sure you can use the Red Sox as an example of a youth movement. To have 2 guys in the starting lineup that came from your farm system is great, but you can't fill out the whole lineup and bench with homegrown young guys. The Brewers have tried this, and while it works to some degree it WILL NOT win you a World Series. Thats just not how the game is played anymore. You need a mix of vets aquired through free agency and young guys, like I think the Red Sox proved this year

Dave in STL

Why are we talking about Cabrera? Where would we play him? His defense is horrible! 3B is locked up, 1B is locked up. We would play him in RF? His arm is fine there, but his range and fly ball reads would cause our OF defense to be worse than last season as opposed to better. While I understand his bat probably makes up for that, I just don't think we need another Jerome Williams type buffet guy out there... if you want a Marlin so bad, go get Jeremy Hermida, he's left handed w/ pop, and could play a status quo RF. Send them Murton, Marshall, & Cedeno. That should be enough to get him if he's available. If you have to throw in Rich Hill, do it! Until Hills fastball starts hovering around 93 - 95, he's no better than Barry Zito today, which is mediocre. I agree you get what you can for Dempster or Marquis. Rotation then is Z, Lily, Dempster/Marquis, Gallagher, Hart/Prior. Don't forget Donnie Veal is coming and Mark Halloman (sp?) is also showing nice progress at higher levels. We have SP to spare & that is a very good thing to dangle...

Jason B. from AZ

Rick,

DeRosa is 32 or 33, I think...hardly a kid, but he does seem to put out effort, I will give you that.

Rick & Mark,

Our team in 2006 had more rookies and youth than anyone except the Florida Marlins, and that was a horrible team.

Our team in 2007 had large contributions from Rich Hill, Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol, Carlos Zambrano (just turned 27? and homegrown), Ryan Theriot, and even Geovany Soto was a contributor at the end of the year. If you factor in homegrown Kerry Wood, that is another guy. Matt Murton was acquired by us, but still went through our farm system, and he also contributed to the team last year.

The Dodgers have a ton of old guys, but everyone loves to talk about their farm system and young kids...so you really can have both.

The Cubs have both farm kids and veterans in their prime. I don't think they have any washed-up old stars, though. Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano...these guys all are in their primes.

So where are we supposed to play all the farm guys?

It looks like Pie (and I wouldn't be surprised if Eric Patterson shows up too) will be in our OF, or at least be given every shot to win it.

Sounds like Gallagher and Hart are part of Hendry's long-term plans.

But is there a long-term plan for; Guzman, Murton, Cedeno, Marshall, Fox, Fontenot, etc...

Doubtful.

So trade them while they have value.

If they aren't going to get a shot on our roster, give them a chance to make it somewhere else, and get some ROI while you are at it.

The problem with the Pierre trade is that Pierre wasn't signed. You can't trade 3 guys for a guy on a 1-year contract...that was stupid. I liked Pierre a lot, but it was stupid of Hendry to make that trade without guarantees that Pierre was locked up.

As far as Dontrelle Willis...we got a few good years out of a #3/#4 starter in Matt Clement, and a serviceable bullpen arm/closer in good ol' Six Fingers Alfonseca. That was a good trade.

Cabrera is 24, I believe...most of our "prospects" are older than this guy. So are you really mortgaging the "future" when you get a proven veteran offensive stud, who is younger then most of the guys that you would give away for him?

Crawford is young as well. Rich Hill is 28...Theriot is 27/28. Would I give up those guys in a package for Crawford or Cabrera? Yes! In a heartbeat!

Jim Kneisley (Indianapolis

I'm still hoping for a veteran a plus-skills, lefty outfielder with some power. But if we go with youth, let's trade with the Rox for Seth Smith. He has RF skills and hits righties and lefties for average and power, but the Rox have Hawpe. They may need a replacement for Matsui, and we have a surplus of middle infielders. And we could spare a pitcher too. JimK

Mark

Rick,

I agree with you on the youth movement, as well on the need for more positive, spirited character on the team. I think, per Neil's Part II, that a Kenny Lofton could fill a positive character role for a low cost (the guys a winner).

Look at all the outside trade rumors and each team is looking to add youth for the future, not mortgage it. Are Santana and Cabrera great stars? Absolutely. Do they bring a WS to Chicago? And at what cost?

I believe that Soto will be a solid addition in 2008, and should yield 80+ RBI's and 15-20 HR's, which we haven't seen in years behind the plate. I'd go all out for a Fukodome or Rowand (both high impact/character players as free agents) and add young, live arms in Gallagher and Hart into the rotation, and Petrick to the pen. That would give us Z, Lilly, Hill, Marshall, Gallagher, Hart (rotate the 6 for extra rest), and get what you can in the market for Dempster and Marquis (young prospects). And then also hope that Prior can rebound (too much invested in him to this point) and that Samardja is just another year out.

No-one liked the Willis and Pierre deals, so lets' stop promoting the dumping of the farm prospects. Let 'em play.

Rick

Neil...thanks for the Part II update.

I've found it interesting to read some of the emotional posts over the last couple days that seem so eager and receptive in depleting our farm system, aligned with this "win now" mentality.

When you look around the majors the successful teams (Braves, Red Sox, Rockies) are building thru the youth movement and the internal farm systems. Boston had two young kids who started the season miserably, and yet were key to their WS success. And the Braves have shown for years their willingness to let the young kids play and produce. That's why losing a declining Andruw Jones isn't a huge loss for them...they have a very young 5-tool kid in the wings, ready to go, and they'll live thru the early learning stages.

You look at our group of youngsters that include Pie, Patterson, Fuld, Marshall, Gallagher, Soto, Hart, Petrick, and Samardja, and they all have extremely positive upside potential. And even if they all don't make it, you have to assume some will with the right opportunity, support and big league nurturing.

We all know the story of Sandberg's start with the Cubs, and patience does indeed sometimes pay off. As a longterm fan, I'd rather pay my admission to Wrigley and watch kids who play hard (aka Theriot/DeRosa) and are fundamentally sound. Win or lose I'd gladly support that effort.

If we want to place an emphasis on the future, how about asking Soriano to show some plate discipline, or Ramirez and Lee to show some veteran spirit and leadership?

I know that 2008 is 100 years and counting. So what? Let's applaud and support youth and effort v. fat payrolls and has-been veterans.