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A quarter of the way through the season, and the Cubs have as many questions as answers. While we now know that Alfonso Soriano has a great arm in LF, and that Lou Piniella is going to keep him in the leadoff spot, the rest of our outfield is still a work-in-progress. While we know that Carlos Zambrano, Jason Marquis, Rich Hill, and Ted Lilly are definitely in our starting rotation, the Cubs seem unsure of who else should take the mound every 5th day. While we thought our bullpen was going to be one of the best in baseball, I am not sure that even Larry Rothschild knows who the closer on this team is right now. Is it too late for this team to jell? Should we start looking forward to 2008 already? You know better....

Making the Case....

Projecting early season statistics over a full season does not always yield accurate data for forecasting, but it can be fun!

STUDS:

  • Aramis Ramirez - .296 avg, 44 HRs, 140 RBIs
  • Michael Barrett - 28 HRs, 92 RBIs (his average is bad, but these stats would be great for him)
  • Jason Marquis - 20-game winner, 2.76 ERA
  • Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, and Carlos Zambrano - 16-game winners each

DUDS:

  • Scott Eyre - 56 innings pitched, 48 earned runs allowed....yikes!
  • Jacque Jones - 560 at-bats, 4 HRs, 60 RBIs (might want to look into trading this guy)

Ok....seems like things are more positive than negative, so we should have a winning record, right? Hmmm.

What Gives?

Does Sweet Lou have a clue? If so, why aren't the Cubs putting more W flags up the pole? We all know that it comes down to a lack of timely hitting, and a poor bullpen, so far this year. The concept of using Guzman and Marmol as a 1-2 bullpen punch is really intriguing to me, and shows some good outside-the-box thinking from Lou and the organization. In the Dusty Era, you just know Dusty would be sticking with "his guys" to the bitter end, so it is refreshing to see Piniella not settle for mediocrity and the status quo.

However, this same stance doesn't seem to apply to Jacque Jones, and I am not sure why. So far, the team would be much better off with Pie/Pagan at CF, and Murton/Floyd in RF. Even the original plan of Soriano in CF seems to make more sense, provided that Soriano was surrounded by Floyd and Murton, and Jones was out of the equation. Perhaps it is by design, and Trader Jim Hendry and Lou know that they can't ship out Jones if they blast his play, or bench him, as it may reduce his value in the eyes of other interested teams.

Either way, I still expect this team to look a bit different, at least in the outfield, after the trading deadline. I would be shocked if we carried Jones, Murton, and Floyd all year.

Was Lou Prepared?

While I applaud Lou's willingness to change things up, I have to admit to being a bit put-off by the constant lineup shuffling. The time to figure out who your outfielders were going to be was in Spring Training....not a quarter of the way through the season! For the sake of chemistry, I think Lou has to settle on a set lineup soon. This is the sole reason (besides the bullpen) that I feel the Cubs aren't 10 games above .500 right now.

We have seen the Izturis/Cedeno/Theriot shuffle, and while Theriot is a big CCO favorite, and we applaud Lou starting him now, why couldn't that decision have been made out of Spring Training?

Matt Murton isn't going to be a young prospect forever....and he won't improve his game playing bits of time here and there. You know what Cliff Floyd can do, and you know what Jacque Jones can do, but do you really know what Murton is fully capable of yet? For that matter, what about Pie? I think it was the right move bringing him up (even though it was done due to Soriano's injury) and the Cubs should have kept him here, for his speed and defense. Surrounded by great hitters, the pressure is off Pie here, and I wouldn't be worried about him losing his confidence if he struggles. I don't care how he hits in AAA....he needs to learn how to hit in the big leagues eventually, so why not now? I like Pie, Soriano, and Murton in the outfield, with Floyd subbing occasionally, serving as insurance, and providing a pinch-hit bat every single game. Let Pagan be Pie's backup, and let Jones go for peanuts....just be rid of him.

I don't blame the 5th starter spot on Lou, as Mark Prior is not Piniella's fault, and neither is a surgically repaired Wade Miller. I think the arms of our farm system can do an admirable job of filling the 5th rotation spot, unlike last year when we asked them to fill, at various points of the season, spots 2-5. Sean Marshall may work out real well, as long as he stays consistent, and gives the club a chance to win. He doesn't have to be an ace....that is not on the job description for 5th starter. Just eat innings, and try to give up 5 runs or less.

Final Thoughts

I am getting excited now. Maybe it is because the Bulls are done, or because I finally feel like there is an end soon to all the shuffling, and this team can start putting out regular lineups and the Cubs will have an identity formed that we can root for regularly. I am hoping this identity doesn't include Jones, and that the Guzman/Marmol experiment is a success. Having Guzman, Marmol, Theriot, Murton, Pie, and Marshall making contributions this year, and other good pitching arms waiting down on the farm, the Cubs may finally be doing a good job of putting some of their home-grown talent to work. As I always have preached, if the kids can't play for you in Wrigley, then stop waiting and trade them for assets that will help you out. So I am a big fan of seeing if the kids can contribute, and if they can't, I am confident we will see Trader Jim make another appearance in July once again. Until next time, CCO Readers, let's stop making excuses, let's start getting consistent, and let's go Cubs!

  • Jim (Tinley Park)

    Jason:



    Nice article, 1/4 is quickly turning into 1/3.

    Anyway, I am probably in the minority but I am not in love with Murton like most of our fellow posters.

    I admit, I would rather see him out in RF than Jones/Floyd To me, Murton is the 2007 version of Mike Vail. (Lates 70'early 80's) Yes, Murton's strength is his hitting, but it is so inconsistent. I know his playing time has been sporadic but this guy is a sub average fielder, a not so bright baserunner and just an overated ball player. I know it won't happen anytime soon but I would like our OF

    to be Soriano in LF, Pie in CF, and a trade for a RF.

  • Hubert

    The best thing for this Floyd/Murton/Jones fiasco is to just shove Floyd in there. He has the most pop and ability to drive in runs there. He can provide a good 5-hole hitter, because obviously Michael Barrett didn't feel like showing up this year.



    Soriano, The Riot, Lee, ARam, Floyd, Barrett, Jones, Derosa should be the way we go.



    I don't know if I like Marshall over Guzman in the 5th starter spot. That gives us three lefties in the rotation who are VERY similar to each other..

  • Eric

    I like your idea, Jason, of the outfield. Soriano, Pie, and Murton on a regular basis would be great. Although I like Jones just fine (yes, like Jeff, I said that), I don't understand what having him play would do for a future trade. The guy's a veteran, more or less, he's going to hit pretty well for average (not consistently) with some mediocre power. What scout or gm out there isn't going to know what to expect when they get Jones? It seems to me the club would be better off if both he and Floyd were playing backup to that outfield until a good trading opportunity came along for Hendry. I don't think we want to drop Jones for nothing as soon as possible. Playing back up in the outfield and pinch hitting he's not going to hurt anybody, besides taking up a roster spot.



    I may be outside of the mainstream of Cubs' fandom here, but I do not at all like the talk of A-Rod coming to Wrigley. It might be because I'm beholden to the idea of developing in-house young talent (in Theriot, if A-Rod would move back to short) or because I'd like to see Ramirez stay right where he is (if A-Rod would stay at third). Ramirez has proven that he can handle high-stakes baseball in a major market and play well consistently. A-Rod has proven that he cannot do either.



    And I am with you Dave on the frustration over Zambrano, but why must we get rid of him so quickly? He started off in a similar way last season and finished in (somewhat dubious) contention for a Cy Young. Zambrano is a freakishly competitive and powerfully dominating pitcher, and I just don't see that a five-hundred record at the end of May warrants a trade. For certain he is not a #1 guy right now, but similar to leadoff hitters only leading off once per game, a #1 starter is only a #1 starter on opening day. And I would hate to see the kind of fire that Zambrano exhibits, even when he's losing, lost.



    On a different note, of course, we'll see how Marquis is doing later in the season (who knows?), but let's all take a moment to relish the happiness I'm sure we all feel that he has a chance to go 6-1 tonight with an ERA in the two's. Did anybody expect this when the Cubs signed him?



    Let's avoid this sweep and get one of our own in LA. Go Cubbies!

  • agustin rexach

    Dave, I doubt the Mets would ever give up Maine, he is the only young gun they have. And I think JH could do farther than Mars with JJ. [pluto]

  • Dave in STL

    Free Big Z - my proposal is to ship Big Z to the Mets at the end of June. Assuming he continues his maddening inconsistency, Lou will want to rid himself of the babysitting duties and spend that cash on a free agent next winter... can you say A-Rod/North Side in the same sentence? So, to get that done, Mets get him signed to a contract extension, the Cubs get John Maine and Aaron Heilman. Mets won't give up Maine unless Big Z is signed long term... Hendry gets to fufill his man crush on Aaron Heilman (doesn't it seem like he's always trying to trade for him?) Cubbies can slide Maine into the rotation thus having Lilly, Marquis, Maine, Hill, & Marshall (who will stick I think) then move Heilman to the bullpen. By then we'd see Heilman, Wuertz, Ohman, Eyre, Howry, Wood, Guzman. Ship Dempster to the Yankees as a starter after he's made 2-3 starts for us... Send Jacques Jones to Mars for all I care. Point being, I'd rather have Maine than an inconsistent Zambrano and a chance at A-Rod with Carlos' cash. It makes the Cubbies a better team this season, and in the seasons to come...

    Dave "I hate Tony LaRussa" in STL

  • nick

    I will also post a picture.

  • agustin rexach

    Jason, I completely understand and agree with what you said. Cut your losses short and move on.



    Nick, if they win the next 8 I'll shave my head and will post a picture or email it to the CCO.

    Brian good points there.

  • Jason B. from AZ

    Hey Brian,



    Here is what drives me nuts about Hendry and the JJ situation. If your club is better without a certain player, regardless of how much he makes, then it is irrational to put that player in your lineup to "showcase" him.



    What is the theory there: playing JJ will cost us some games, retard the development of Murton, lead to constantly changing lineups, but at least we will get a solid AA pitcher for him?



    The smart thing to do is trade him for anything...anything at all, or just release him. The Cubs gamble with money all the time (see: Wood, Kerry or Prior, Mark or Rusch, Glendon). Sometimes you have to know when to fold them, and walk away.



    Am I in bizarro world, or does anyone else get my point here?

  • Trevor

    No doubt nick, this was a golden opportunity to be moving up in the division.

  • nick

    What really hurts about these losses is the Brewers have lost seven out of the last ten games, man we should be capitalizing on this stuff.

  • Brian

    Jason,



    I see where you are going with Lou and I tend to agree on a few points. As I said the other day, I really like him and think he was prepared for the regular season.



    I do not think he expected The Riot's breakout, though some predicted it, he did not expect izturis to be a black hole at SS and I really think he thought Soriano could play CF.



    We all want Jacque traded, but he cannot control that. And in order to trade someone they have to be on display, so he has to play every now and again. I was never huge on the Floyd signing and it will only be reasonable if JJ is shipped off.



    However, I agree that DeRosa and Theriot need to play every day at the same position and the same order of the lineup. And yes, Murton needs to play AT LEAST 4 times a week if not 5.



    Until then, chemistry will not be formed and we will not be in the position to have our bullpen blow the lead nearly as much as I would like.

  • Steve

    Oh these Cubbies of mine. We should be so much better than this. We should have a great bullpen if our proven arms were pitching anything close to their career numbers. We should be scoring a minimum of 5 runs a game, if we could buy a hit with RISP. We should be doing a lot of things, but we're not. Its the same ol' story from last year. Baserunning blunders (I'm looking at you Murt), error's, inconsistant line ups, lack of clutch hitting, and constantly wasting good starting pitching. Its driving me up the wall.



    One more thing; Who kidnapped Carlos Zambrano and where are they keeping him?



    NOW LETS GO OUT THERE AND WIN SOME GAMES!!!

  • Jeff from oklahoma

    Jason B. -- Nice article!!



    Here is my 25 cents.. JJ GONER!! When we signed him I was truly happy we got him, not anymore. He's a nice hitter, yes I said it a nice hitter just not what we need.



    Can we trade Big Z to the Padre's for their bullpen?? j/k But seriously wouldn't be nice knowing if your actually losing 1-0 going into the 7 inning that your probaly going to win the ballgame.



    Like you said Jason, our 5th starter is not Lou's fault, and he's doing the best he can for now. I wouldn't be surprised grabbing a proven mlb pitcher through trades.



    My biggest complaint so far other than bullpen is lack of clutch hits. Our starters are giving us the innings and a chance every game. I blame last nights game on IZZY and IZZY alone. A pitcher walked 2 guys that inning, you have bases loaded 3-1 count and swing at a low cutter. Way to go Izzy!!Hopefully you'll be riding the pine for a few days/weeks. I gurantee Theriot would have taken that pitch and battled his butt off to score a run.



    Only savior that we have is that we our in an extremely weak division and the cardinals are having a bad year so far. We're playing bad baseball but only 6 1/2 games back, thats it!



    I still have faith in this team even if we decide to keep JJ. I've said it before, I believe Lou will figure it out, and the team will actually play baseball the right way.



    Take care, sorry for my long rant. My wife won't let me complain at the house.

  • nick

    If the Cubs win twelve games in a row I will shave my head, heck make it ten games.

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