Optimism Redux

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Not since Spring 2004 has there been a more optimistic feeling about our Chicago Cubs. The 2004 squad was set before the eve of training camp when Jim Hendry signed Greg Maddux to a three year deal to be our fifth starting pitcher. Other notable transactions that off season included Todd Walker splitting time with Mark Grudzielanek at second base, the trade for Derrek Lee to man first base was going to be a serious upgrade and Corey Patterson was coming back from injury to play Centerfield. Patterson's star was rising due to his stellar play before a knee injury cut-short his 2003 season. As we all know the 2003 Cubs were five outs away from a date with the New York Yankees in the World Series before disaster struck and the 2004 squad was going to be even better. Sports Illustrated even had a cover story titled "When Hell freezes over". As we all know, Hell remains Hot and the 2004 season was a good year record-wise, but the Cubs failed to make the playoffs.

So why is there optimism for 2007? First off all the culture has been changed at the Ivory tower on Michigan Avenue. CEO Andy MacPhail was let go and replaced by marketing guru John McDonough. McDonough has said all the right things and has backed up his comments by letting Jim Hendry deal out tons of cash to players who will be here for the next 4 years or more. Aramis Ramirez was resigned, Alfonso Soriano, the best offensive machine on the free market was also newly Cubbed for eight years along with new second baseman Mark DeRosa and pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. Hendry also acquired Neal Cotts from Bridgeport to give the bullpen three left handed pitchers.

With all the new faces and money spent, we sometimes forget the man who will be in charge of this squad - Lou Piniella. Piniella, a proven winner as a player and Manager will not tolerate the lackadaisical play of previous Dusty Baker teams. Actions like hustle, and on base percentage will be part of what we see on the field. Gone will be spoken words like "dude", "is what it is", and all Hank Aaron analogies.

The 2007 squad is not quite complete yet. A couple of prudent trades can fix that. Jim Hendry can now deal from strength; he has stock piled enough pitching were he can possibly deal some young arms that can shore up a solution for Centerfield. Last years starting five no longer includes Jerome Williams or Glendon Rusch. The names of Zambrano, Hill, Lilly and Marquis will anchor the top four spots in the rotation. Wade Miller, Mark Prior, Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol, and Juan Mateo will not be given a spot in the rotation, they compete for the chance to earn the job as fifth starter along with any other Rookie-spring-surprises. Derrek Lee will back, along with Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. Those three names alone should club 100 bombs. Matt Murton will be a year more experienced and Michael Barrett is one of the top hitting catchers in the game.

I can't predict a World Series championship yet for 2007, but I can predict that there won't be any of those empty seats in September.

  • Matt, yes there is always updates with the Rumor Mill, in fact have a couple for tomorrow I am working on right now. As you know the rumors quiet down during the season but if we read one from a reliable source, you will be able to read about it.

    The season will be fun and very interactive, we have a lot planned.

  • Matt R.

    i was just wondering since i am new to this sight, is there a rumor mill during the regular season??? i really enjoyed those.

  • Ryan R

    jerljr,

    I have to agree with Gramps. Even with a sub-.300 hitter like DeRossa in the 2 hole, there is no way that teams are going to pitch around Soriano to get to the 2 spot. Not with Lee batting 3rd and ARAM hitting cleanup. That just puts either Soriano at 2nd on a sac or puts him at 3rd or home by via a double by Lee or ARAM. It wouldn't happen that way all the time of course but would happen enough so that teams start facing Cubs hitters straight up.

  • Gramps

    jerljr,

    I see your point, but wouldn't it be nice to see the opposing manager walk Soriano if our pitcher sacrifices a hitter to 2nd base? I don't want the Cubs to be a 1-man gang. The more baserunners the better. And I can see a lot of runs scoring with Lee and Ramirez coming up.

  • jerljr

    If Soriano Lead-off, the cubs pitchers might as well not even bunt runners over because they will walk soriano to get to are second spot(which so far, the names that have been thrown around haven't been mind-blowing). He will be pitched around and strikeout a lot. So, Gramps, even though I respect your opinion, I think your wrong. Its only once during the game that this situation wont come up and thats the first inning. If you were in the American League I might agree with you. but the lineup is more important in the national leaugue.

  • Hubert

    We can hit with anybody in the NL, however the pitching staff is going to be giving up 4 runs a game because it is below average. Z is the only guaranteed established shutdown pitcher...

  • Jason B. from AZ

    Jim (from TP),

    Nice job! I hope you are right on some prudent trades remaining, but I am thinking whatever drug Jim Spendry was on has worn off, and Trader Jim has a heckuva hangover to deal with, and I am not sure he can concentrate right now. My guess is the Cubs stand pat, until June/July.

    Some general thoughts from reading all the good comments:

    Soriano, for whatever reason (baseball is a mental game) does better in the leadoff spot, including a higher OBP. Best to leave him there, rather then spend $17 million to watch him be just slightly above average in the #4 or #5 hole.

    Wow...we no longer have Dusty, Rusch, Williams, and Neifi. There truly is such as thing as addition by subtraction!

    If Pie has even a decent Spring, I think we will hear from Hendry/Piniella "we really liked what we saw from this kid in ST, and we think he is ready to take the next step up". I think, at this point, they are looking for any excuse to start Pie. If this happens, they will trade Jones, but only after Pie has proven himself over a 3-5 week span at least.

    Finally...no way is Andrew Jones worth $20 million. This is like the Zito contract. Zito is not better than Oswalt, Carpenter, Johan Santana, and many others.

    However, in the world of supply and demand, Zito gets the richest contract for a pitcher, ever. Still, even if Jones is the biggest free agent, I don't see how he would top the Soriano deal. He could get something similar, though.

  • Jim

    Having a tradition leadoff hitter is nice but having a guy like Soriano is better. Giving this pitching staff a 1 run lead after the first inning will win us more games than Soriano striking out.

  • Gramps

    I don't mind Soriano batting leadoff. Remember it is just one at bat per game. I remember how many times Pierre came up with 2 and 3 runners on base last year. Nice to have Soriano in that spot this year. And he also gives us the threat of going up 1-0 a lot of times. He has great speed and if he gets on base, he could steal or whoever is in the 2nd spot can move him up for Lee and Ramirez. And if it makes him happy to hit leadoff so be it.

  • Matt, welcome to the CCO! As far as the Dontrelle Willis and Andruw Jones, I think the prospects and/or Major League talent that the Marlins and Braves will ask for in return would be too steep for the Cubs to pay.

    Jones will test and break the free agent bank next off-season and a 1-year rental, or even a 1/2 season rental will be very expensive. I have read numbers in the $20-$25 million per year range for Jones.

  • Scott McMeekan

    jerljr,

    Completely agree about soriano. I think we're going to waste what could potentially be 30 or so runs by batting him leadoff. I wanted Hendry to go after Lofton, but he didn't. The problem is that right now we have to use him in the lead off spot, because we have no other proven or potential LO hitter. It has to be one of the toughest things to do well in the Majors. I think this issue will come back to bite us.

    As for contending this year, I'm cautiously optimistic. However, I think a couple of things need to happen that aren't a given...namely, a certain pitcher named Prior gets 25 starts and we find a closer we can count on again. The bullpen is solid, and I think we'll have better run production, but it's not going to be a cakewalk.

    With the expectations higher than in the history of the club, and with the lineup he's been given, I think this will be the most pressure Lou has felt since his days with the Yankees. Let's hope he's up for it.

    GO CUBS.

  • jerljr

    matt,

    All depends on whose out of it at the time and whose contracts are on their last year.

    I'm starting to wonder if they wont give Pie and Pagen a chance at the CF spot and if they don't work out trade for someone at the trading deadline.

    I would be alright with that as long as they played a good defensive CF, but I would much prefer a them sign or trade for a decent one now.

    For one reason, as I've said before, I would rather Soriano bat later in the lineup. 2nd or 3rd slot just so his abilities as a run producer would be more effective. His stats have been pretty good leading off but he was in the american league were he wasn't batting after the pitcher. He would see sitiations where there are two outs and men in scoring position but first base open and they will walk him or pitch around him to get to our second hitter who wont be as dangerous. Plus, he's going to have more solo homeruns.

    If he batting with Lee and Ramirez right behind them, they wont be able to throw him junk that he can strikeout.

    In my opinion, best scenerio is a lead-off centerfielder so that he can be moved back to the 2nd spot

  • Matt R.

    this is my first time commenting on this site too. I absolutely love this site and i checked it almost every hour during the winter meetings with all the rumor mill posts.

    i think that the cubs have all the pieces this year to contend for the playoffs.

    if we are in the playoff hunt during the trading deadline, could you see a trade for someone like dontrelle willis? or if pie is the center fielder, what about andruw jones?

  • Tommy....welcome to the CCO!

    Nathanael, you are right anything is possible.

  • tommy

    well this is my first time commenting but i have been reading here for more than a year it seems like and i love this sit. but anyway i dont see why the cubs cant win this year it seems like there finally getting all the peices to the puzzle

  • Nathanael

    Boise State's game last night gives me hope. If the Broncos can do it, why not the Cubs?

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