Just a few very brief comments about things that have been said here:

First of all, you can not trade DeRosa this year until the end of June or somewhere around there. Presumably that rule is so that high-payroll teams can't gobble up all the players and trade them around in the offseason to fit their whims.

Secondly, understand that Cubs.com and Muskat are not actually a news outlet or true reporter, respectively. They are basically arms of the PR department. Yes, their job is to make things look good for the Cubs. If you're looking for unbiased analysis of moves, you're looking to the wrong place. That said:

I think the comment about ending the revolving door at second was neither a comment about how good DeRosa is nor how long he may be there. I think it was a comment that this season, with the exception of random days off and things like that, you can expect to see DeRosa starting at 2B every game. Last year, you never had any idea who would start there at any given time. Walker, Hairston, Bynum, Neifi, Cedeno, Theriot... is there anybody I'm missing? In that sense, for at least one year and possibly more, the revolving door is closed; we have a second baseman. Even if he's only average.

Aaron, if I read what you said correctly, there's virtually no way that Drew has 8 more years left in him. He's 31 already; eight years would take him roughly to 40, and few players play that long at all. Even fewer play that long at a high level. Not to mention the fact that Drew is pretty much constantly injured (his 146 games this year was a career high; his average is closer to 120).

Zip, thank you for your kind words and don't worry about the Convention this year....it will be covered here at the CCO. Brian, Shaun and I will all be there with laptops and cameras in hand.

Aaron, Bell and Jackson were not at the "twilight" of their careers when we picked them up. At the time, they were top tier free agents that turned into bombs in hindsight ... which could happen with guys like Drew, Soriano, Schmidt, or Zito too. I'm not saying it will, I'm just saying it could so it's not fair to judge the Bell and Jackson signings in hindsight.

As for Lilly, he has very good stuff and was a top prspect when he came into the league. Sometimes it takes pitchers a while to develop. Take Jason Schmidt for example ... he was a mediocre pitcher for a numebr of years before he turned the corner.

couple comments here guys....

One, Carrie Muskat is very arrogant to begin with (I know this, because I've received an e-mail from her before), PLUS, she is like Hendry's little puppet, touting every move that he makes as saving the Cubs....that's laughable

moving on....

Agustin, do you honestly think Prior is going to have a career year, or were you being sarcastic?

Look, I hope he returns to form....I really do....I hope in a year or two, both him and Wood are throwing fireballs in the rotation, but reality has to set in sometime. He's had a very unfortunate career. Unlike Wood, Prior had never been injury-prone before the collision with Giles at second, which still haunts me in my dreams now...He basically nearly separated his shoulder then, and I think that is the cause of a lot of that "looseness" in his shoulder....THEN, as if that wasn't bad enough, he gets hit by a line drive off his elbow from Hawpe (I believe) that riccocheted all the way to ARAM. So you have looseness in the shoulder AND a fractured elbow. That alone makes it hard to come back to what you were at previously. I remember being at a Cardinals vs Cubs game a few years back before all of that, and Prior was touching 98-100 mph on some pitches, but now he's barely touching 92. Wood---he has a chance to be what he was, though I fear it will no longer be as a starter. As for Prior---he might have to rediscover himself as a Maddux-like spot pitcher to be effective again.

comments on Lilly.....again, Agustin, I don't know about those stats, man. Comparing him to Zambrano is pretty laughable. Plus, as was also mentioned by Jason B., Hudson, Zito, and Mulder were all facing the same teams, but Lilly still had worse stats. That's precisely the reason guys like Hudson, Zito, and Mulder got paid more (granted, Hudson and Mulder have been injured, and I think Zito will be too), but Lilly is not durable enough to be paid 10 million a year. I believe no more than 8 should be appropriate, considering what the Cubs gave Maddux at the declining phase in his career.

Jason B.....Finally agreeing with me, huh, about the Cubs shouldn't be gloating about only one difference-making signing? DeRosa solving the revolving door at 2B is a joke....absolute joke. I'd much rather see an electrifying player like Eric Patterson there in about a year anyway. ARAM was on our terrible team last year, as was Wood, Blanco, and Miller....The Cubs PR machine looks like they've fooled us again, huh? Don't they do this every year anyhow-----one big signing (or so they tout), and a bunch of bench players that never seem to pan out for us, from Lenny Harris to Mabry, to Hairston, Bynum, and the list goes on....Piniella was right when he said we needed to address the bench, and we have done nothing...and could've gotten Helms, Speizio, or anyone out there currently.

on the rotation.....Truthfully, I'd be happy with Zambrano, Hill, FA-Lilly, Meche, Miller, Prior/Marshall/etc. Look, Zambrano should eat up a lot of innings, and be good for about 15 wins, same for Hill. Lilly or Meche would give you a veteran presence, and also be good for about 15 wins. Miller I believe is about to turn a corner and return to what he once was, and I don't think the 5th spot will be a problem, with plenty of guys to choose from. So, you just spent about 8-9 million on a pitcher----go get bench help, and sign Lugo and if you can, Drew.

I wholeheartedly believe that the pitching staff was given too much flak last year. The Cubs offense was virtually non-existent in April, May, and June. I also think that contributed to Dempster's meltdown---trying to be too perfect. I pitched in college, and have a few friends pitching in the majors, and I know for a fact that once your team becomes inept at scoring runs, you start trying to aim your pitches, and you get pounded. Look at what happened with Maddux....One of our best pitchers---he started out the year pitching well, because we were scoring runs, then we started failing, and he got hit hard. He, along with most of our rookies, were pitching lights out early on in the season, only to lose 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1, 3-0. As a pitcher, that's so disheartening to lose like that, and we were doing it pretty much every single day. It wears on you, and I am confident that if we get Lugo, and Drew, or someone of that caliber to compliment Lee, ARAM, and Soriano, we will be unbelievable, because all the rookies will have more confidence, and our bats will minimize any errors they make on the mound.

I know everyone will probably chastise me for that....because it's been said so much on here...pitching, pitching, pitching....Sure, Schmidt would look good, but with the potential we have in Guzman, Marshall, Marmol, Ryu, Gallagher, Veal, O'Malley, Prior, and Miller---I'll take that 15 million, and put it in Drew for RF, and trade Jones for pitching...sign Lugo, and trade Izturis for prospects---I'd make that move anyday. I'd make it because I'm tired of going after high-priced players at the twilights of their careers. We've had enough Gaetti's, Myers', Karros', Bell's, Jackson's, etc...Drew, Soriano, Lugo---these guys might have 8 years of productivity left. I'd rather see that than 1 year of Schmidt, and two injury plagued years....ditto Zito.

If you don't believe me, just look at how many 1-3 run games we had at the beginning of the year, or how many shutouts we had thrown against us. Marshall should've been like 10-2 for his starts, and a few other guys were in the same predicament.

Agustin, so he's injured but you missed my point. Besides Zito, Schmidt and Maddux none of the names being mentioned in the rumor mills have it. I'm just trying to throw some possibilities out there.

Next time I mention a name I'll make sure hes healthy. :D

Clement had a 13-6 record with the Red Sox in 2005, the year after he left the Cubs. His numbers are similar to Lily's, although his career ERA is a bit lower.

My point was, if you sign Lily, and pay him $10 million, you should have just paid Clement $8 million (I think that is what he gets paid) and he would still be under contract next year.

Yes, Clement was hurt last year, but it is impossible to say that he would be hurt if he played for the Cubs (although the odds say Rothschild probably would have had him throwing a towel at some point in 2006).

That is like the Red Sox being glad they didn't somehow trade for Derrick Lee last year, because he was injured all year. Injuries are unpredictable, and can't be assumed as a given (unless your last name is "Wood" or "Prior").

Hi Jeff,

Straight from the opening sentences of the article...this is an exact cut&paste: "With the annual Winter Meetings coming up next week in Orlando, Cubs general manager Jim Hendry might not have much work to do, considering the huge signings of Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez he pulled off before the Thanksgiving holiday."

I beg to differ, Carrie...Trader Jim has got a lot of work to do!

Agustin,

I don't think the numbers are quite that similar...when you do the math, and figure things out over 9 innings, Zambrano will give up 2 less hits per nine innings, but will walk 1 more batter, but he will also strike out one more batter as well.

Zambrano also gave up less HRs, despite pitching 30 more innings. Why? Zambrano has a great sinker, and gets tons of ground balls when he is "on".

Walks are never good, but I would rather have a guy who gives up less hits, even if he issues 1 extra walk, especially when he is just as likely to strike out the next guy to end the inning.

Zambrano's career ERA is 3.29

Lily's career ERA is 4.60

You felt moving from the AL to the NL results in a .30 to .40 drop in ERA. I am not sure I agree (look at Latroy Hawkins, Andy Petite, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, etc...)

But even if I doubled that to .80, then Lily is still at 3.80 ERA, and is still 1/2 run higher than Zambrano's career avg.

Sorry, but I think Lily is no Zito, and he sure is no Zambrano. But I hope you are right that Hendry isn't done dealing!

Sorry but Clement? You'll have to read and find out that Clement is currently not healthy, injured and probably done... Besides he has done nothing after he left the Cubs, but a good first half and basicly suck

Jason B. I agree with you on all your points. I haven't seen Lilly pitch either and his stats are horrible. I would MUCH rather see Maddux back than to pay this guy a tad-bit less.

I also want to say that we need to stop focusing on Schmidt and Westbrook. If we want Schmidt in Chicago, Hendry will have to overpay him to pull him from the West coast. I would love to see him here but I doubt its gonna happen.

Cleveland has said repeatedly they don't want to trade Westbrook. Unless their blowing smoke..its not gonna happen.

Hendry needs to dig a bit deeper. This upcoming week will be key, I feel the only way were going to get good Sp'(s) is by trade. On paper this team is almost at the W.S. but your just not going to win it with average, below-average pitching.

resign Maddux trade for M. Clement

I think Jim Spendry needs to revert to Trader Jim, and make some things happen to land some starting pitchers via a trade.

How about Tim Hudson? He is only 119-60 for his career. I know Hendry is used to signing guys like Glendon Rusch who are dozens of games below .500 for their career, but I think ol' Jim should start setting his expectations a bit higher.

Another reason a trade makes more sense is because many of the quality pitchers will have reasonable contracts, compared to shelling out $10 million a year for a .500 pitcher like Lily.

Remind me again...why did we let Clement leave?

I really liked the Jake Westbrook idea as well.

Florida may be willing to part with one of their pitchers for a CF or their favorite Scooby Snack: prospects!

Here are a list of players that I don't care one way or the other if they are traded from the Cubs: Marshall, Cedeno, Izturis, DeRosa, Theriot, Marmol, Guzman, Mateo, Ryu, Pagan, Novoa, Ohman, and Jacque Jones.

I don't know if you can get anything for all of that...but I hope Trader Jim gives it a try. Don't worry, we keep getting new draft picks every year.

The reality is we now have Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano that are going nowhere anytime soon. Assuming Pie finally gets up to the majors, he will also probably be a fixture the next few years. Add in Zambrano, Murton, and hopefully Hill, and you have a number of spots that are taken with talented players under contract (or who likely will be under contract) for the next 3-5 years.

We also have 2 more years of a solid bullpen of Eyre and Howry, although bullpen arms are always fickle...at least, in theory, we look strong there.

Barrett may or may not be a fixture at catcher, depending on how his defense is this year. If he isn't a defensive liability, then he will likely stay...otherwise, he may be a talented offensive player that we don't have a position for, as the OF is taken, 1B and 3B are taken, and Barrett isn't about to be playing SS or 2B.

But Neil says we have some good catchers in the minors, so that position may be fairly stable as well.

So what do the Cubs need??? Starting pitching!!!!

What don't they need??? A bunch of pitching prospects that haven't produced when given the opportunity, and/or any position player prospects not named Pie or Patterson.

So get down to business Trader Jim, and go trade the farm for an arm...or two.

Sorry I meant "accepted" not excepted. I need to learn to spell if I want to be taken seriously.

Jason- I just read the article you were refering to, and I can't find any were that it says the Cubs will not need to do much, although it states that they are stocked up heading into the meetings. As for Ted Lilly, I don't like the fact that his agent is announcing the deal publicly when they have not excepted it, sounds like an agent trying to get more money from the Jay'si

Hey Jason...I agreee with what you say. JH still has issues to attend. I'm one that thinks Lilly is an upgrade though... and here is why:

Compare Zambrano numbers last year [IMO the best pitcher in the national league period] to Lilly's :

Lilly

G32/ GS32/W15/L13/CG-0/SHO- 0/IP181.2/H179/R98/ER87/HR28/BB81/K160/ERA4.31/WHIP1.43/ BAA.254

Zambrano

G33/GS33/W16/L7/CG-0/SHO- 0/IP214/H162/R91/ER81/HR20/BB115/K210/ERA3.41/WHIP1.29 BAA.206

In games started, wins, complete games/shutouts/hits/earned runs and homeruns allowed Big Z has the edge but not that distant from Lilly. In Strike outs, Lost games and ERA Zambrano is far superior; but keep in mind that Walks are a lot less and while the opponent average of batters is higher with Lilly, their OBP is low. Also notice [most of the time] that most of the starting pitchers tend to drop their ERA approximately .30-.40 when changing from the AL to the NL because of the DH and the pitcher batting respectively. Yes C.Zambrano had an awful team behind him last year and Toronto was way better, but with the offense we should provide next year both of the afore mention pitchers could have 3-4 wins more. Zambrano could win the Cy and Lilly the second spot.

Others…

Meche is very delicate and injury prone [I would stay away]

Schmidt would be perfect but probably this is wishful thinking after a Soriano hangover [give him 55million 4 years] and forget about getting another starter. [even Lilly who would be my take if Schmidt can't happen.

Zambrano

Schmidt

Prior

Hill

Marshall

I might be the only one but I believe Prior will play it out and will have a career year. [Mark my words if you wish] See you guys!

Jason, you make very good points. I don't think it can be reasonably argued that Lilly is the equivalent of Zito. But I think it can be argued that Lilly is a very above average player. And I think that Zito (and Schmidt) are not coming to Chicago. Zito will be in New York next year (he wants to play in a big market on a coast...sorry, Lake Michigan doesn't count) and Schmidt wants to play on the West Coast. So that leaves Lilly and Meche as the best FA options. Since Lilly is a lefty, and has a better track record than Meche, I really, honestly believe that he is the best pitcher that is actually available to the Cubs, and is not just attempting to use them to drive up other teams' prices. So while I probably exaggerated if I made it sound like Lilly was equal to Zito, I believe he is our best option.

Nathaneal,

Lily pitched in Oakland in 2003, and had a typical year for him, just about .500 record, 4.30 ERA, and about 1 hit given up per inning pitched.

Zito was a full run lower, with a 3.30 ERA, and Mulder and Hudson were even lower still. Those three all pitched against the same teams that Lily did.

I respect your opinion about the AL, but the fact remains that plenty of pitchers do just fine in the AL, and Zito is one of them. Does that mean Zito will be even more lights out in the NL? If so, why aren't we falling all over ourselves to get him, then?

Another troubling thing with Lily is that I noticed he usually gets around 32 starts, but yet doesn't pitch close to 200 innings.

In 2003, for example, Lily had 5 more starts than Mark Mulder, yet he gave up 1 less hit than Mulder, and he pitched 8 innings less than Mulder.

It appears, at a glance, that Lily doesn't make it very late into games. The Cubs have a good bullpen it appears, so maybe that isn't too big of a worry, but it seems Lily is a high-pitch count kind of guy, if he pitches so few innings for the number of games started.

The last 4 years, Lily has started 120 games, and pitched about 680 innings, or an average of 5-2/3rd innings per game.

Why don't we just resign Maddux instead? He also won 15 games last year, and will still manage to give us even more innings than Lily!

In the past 6 years, Zito has averaged 34.5 starts a year, 222 innings a year, and averages about 6.4 innings per game.

Sorry, but I have to disagree that Lily is somehow Zito's equivalent.

I agree signing Zambrano is crucial to the team's future (beyond 2007) but Zambrano was also on the last place team last year, and I think it is more important to make the team better first, and spend all the time you want on Zambrano after all the pieces are in place for this next year.

Jason B.: I agree and disagree with you. I completely agree about the PR machine on cubs.com. When I read things like what Muskat was writing today it makes me think the Cubs are trying to signal they are done making deals. The off season has been good but the Cubs are by no means "stacked" all of a sudden. Good grief, the fans have more sense than that. I still like the DeRosa signing but agree its not like the Cubs signed a premier 2B who will lock the spot down for the next 5 years. Hendry's done good, but lets not anoint him King quite yet.

I disagree though on Lily, for many of the same reasons that Nathanael already mentioned so I spare the repeat. I like Lily a whole lot more than Padilla and I think he fits in well with the team, he certainly has fire. Although with Z and Lily's fire and Hill/Marshall's youth, not to mention Prior's pansyitis....it would be nice to see a veteran pitcher come in and offer maturity, advice, calm,toughness, etc.

Jason, I think that you're analysis of Lilly is unfair. He has played much of his career in the high-octane AL East (against the high scoring Boston and New York teams) and his other years in the AL West (against high-scoring teams like Texas). The AL in general is much, much stronger offensively than the NL. So to win 15 games, especially in the cutthroat AL east is highly impressive. And from what I've been reading, Lilly has basically the same skills as Zito, but is just less known. I think Lilly is a much more cost-effective, and potentially less used-and-abused pitcher than Zito or Schmidt. Maybe we'll be able to afford some of those other players you said we need by signing Lilly rather than the "big" names. Because whether you like it or not, the Cubs have only so many more millions they're going to throw out there (and hopefully they're saving a few for the most important part of the offseason, extending the indespensable Zambrano).

Hey guys,

I am happy to no longer be relying on Wood and Prior (although I hope Prior returns healthy this year, of course).

But sometimes a name gets repeated in the Rumor Mill over and over enough that people assume the player must be good. I have never seen Ted Lilly pitch...at least that I remember.

But I have seen his stats.

Not much to get excited about.

If the whole idea of winning a championship is to win 90+ games, and have a good winning percentage, then why are we targeting guys that are lifetime .500 pitchers?

If you are going to spend almost $10 mill/yr on a guy that will lose a game for everyone he wins, then why not spend $5 mill/yr more on a guy that wins on an almost 2-1 ratio, like Barry Zito?

I also want to take up a beef I have with the Cubs PR machine...Cubs.com is stating that "Jim Hendry may not have much work to do at the Winter meetings, after the huge signings of Soriano and Ramirez."

What?

I agree the Soriano signing was huge.

But aren't we missing a CF?

Aren't we also missing 3 starting pitchers?

Wasn't Aramis on the team last year...the same team that finished last?

I also don't get the comment that "the DeRosa signing ends the revolving door at 2B".

Huh?

Is DeRosa the second coming of Ryne Sandberg? Did I miss something about this 32 yr old career utility player?

I understand you want to have a positive spin, but why not just say how great Soriano is, and just leave it at that? Don't insult the intelligence of all the Cubs Faithful by acting like 2006 didn't happen, and that we didn't just have 15 starting pitchers last year...

(end of rant)

Give me Lilly and Jennings for Jones plus a prospect, and Floyd to replace Jones, and I'm a happy Cubs fan.

I'd really like to see Lily in Cubbie blue. Looks like the only thing left is to see if another club will make the Cubs pay more to get him. Sign him and trade for Westbrook or Jennings, (Westbrook preferably.)

Thanks for the info, Neil.

I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you for a great board, too. I VERY much enjoyed reading CCO this year...on a daily basis. Thanks so much for being here....a really nice, civil place for Cubs fans to read and, occasionally, share thoughts.

Go Cubs!!