He is not playing in Japan, he will be signed because this deal is strongly monitored by MLB and failure to achieve it will be seen as a tactic against the Yankees who were the second place bidders. Expect Boras to wait till the 14th and take a 8-9 million for 4years.

CCO Cub fans I'm convinced that Hendry should sign Schmidt at all costs, with him aboard there's no need for Lilly and/or Meche.

Zambrano/Hill/Schmidt/Prior/Miller-Marshall-Mateo is perfect. Lilly/Meche are expected to be signed long-term and for atleast 9 million per year. Not because they are good, it's because of Starting Pitcher shortage in the MLB market. They are not quality, let's not kid ourselves...they are 2 back of the rotation pitchers. Granted that they would be an upgrade for the last year Cubs, but that's not to difficult to achieve right? With Schmidt expecting anywhere between 14-16 million a year and not demanding a long-term contract I see it very achievable. His ERA speaks for himself and knows the NL. Also he is less injury prone than both Lilly and Meche. If we get any of theese two guys we will be over paying for average players, if we over pay for Schmidt we would have another CYoung candidate for 2-3 years. Besides we should let some space in the rotation to give a chance to ease our last year rookie starters in a much better Chicago Cubs team. Management and Players wise. Just a thought from P.R.

Go Cachorros de Chicago!

I see him playing in Japan next season.

Trevor,

If they don't sign him, he goes back to Japan for another year and he can be posted again next year. However if he were to wait two more years, he would be a free agent, and wouldn't have to go through the posting procees and could sign with whoever he wants.

So if they don't sign him and get their money back, is he re-posted? Or does the second place bidder get a shot at him?

David you are right about the Red Sox receiving the posting fee back if Matsuzaka does not sign. They have until December 14th....

Jim, If D-Mat doesn't sign with the Sox, they get their $51 mil back.

So are the Red Sox going to sign D-Mat? If they don't do they get back there $51 Mill? I wonder if Manny will go.

Jason, on an ironic note, there would have been one more advantage to signing Furcal ... D. Lee would not have broken his hand last season by running into Furcal. Though no one can blame JH for not forseeing that one!

I agree with you that we should pursue Schmidt even if we have to overpay a bit. Now that Lugo is off the table (I'm guessing JH had a $30+ mil offer on the table for him), I expect that JH will focus his pursuit on Schmidt and Lily and save any changes for the offense for later in the offseason.

Jim(tp): I think those pitchers would be upgrades as well, but beyond those FA's its dicey at best.

David,

You are right...less star prospects to trade...had Guzman fared better, he may have still had good value.

I think the other part of it is that Hendry had to trade 3 prospects to get a 1-yr rental of Juan Pierre.

Why did he do that? Because he wouldn't overpay for Furcal...

This shows you that there is more to a player's contract than the actual worth of player. This is something Hendry finally "gets" I think.

Overpaying for a player can be beneficial if it:

Allows you to keep prospects you project as starters soon. These prospects will be cost-effective for a few years, saving your team money...so by not trading Pie, they hope to save some money in the lineup if/when Pie becomes a fixture in the OF.

Another benefit of overpaying is weakening another team. By signing Soriano, you are keeping him away from any of your division rivals (Houston, St Louis, etc...) who may have benefitted from him.

Yet another benefit may be signing away a player from a rival (an example would be signing Petite or Clemens, which would, in turn, weaken Houston).

So was Furcal, the player, worth $13 million a year? Probably not. But Furcal, the free agent transaction, would definitely have been worth it.

Had we signed Furcal, the Cubs would have a #1 or #2 hitter already in place, and a shortstop that can "pick it and hit it." The Cubs also would still have Pinto, Mitre, and Nolasco either as trade chips, or as potential pitchers on their big league team.

Sometimes, it makes sense to overpay. That is why the Bulls signed Ben Wallace (made them better, and weakens Detroit). Hopefully Hendry has got some sense now.

Go get Schmidt...overpay if you have to!

Jason, I know I've made this point a number of times in other threads, but I think the problem is less JH not being willing to deal prospects and more JH not having top prospects to deal. Pie and Veal are the only guys with real value now and even those guys are elite prospects. You're not going to get much for Marshall, Mateo, Marmol, Guzman now ... it's too late ... they've all had a chance at the major league level and have had minimal to no success ... it's not to say they won't have success in the future, but they're value is down now. The guy who had success and has trade value right now is Rich Hill ... but I think we all want to hold on to him now.

What are the chances of the Cubs signing both Lilly and Meche? It seems that their interest in Meche has been more of a fall-back position in case Lilly falls through. I am getting anxious to see something resolved with the pitching staff.

Trevor:

I think Lilly, Schmidt and Meche would be an upgrade over anywhere between 2/5 to 3/5 of last years rotation. I wonder if Boston will deal Coco Crisp now?

Why do you guys think Suppan is a bad option? Isn't he coming off a great postseason?

Jim (from TP),

I still think Maddux is better than people realize. His April record wasn't a fluke...you have to have talent to be as good as he was.

Not only that, often, on this site, posters throw around 15 wins like it is easy to do, but the reality is that 15 wins is a lot!

If not for a crappy 2005 Cubs team, Maddux would be on, what, 19 straight years of 15 wins or more? That is unreal.

He still won 15 games last year, and he just moved to the BEST pitcher's park in all of baseball, according to this website I saw (based on 2004 data, fyi):

http://www.sportfanatics.net/Baseball/Fantasy%20Baseball/2005/2005_Baseball_Stadium_Statistics.htm

Some interesting data there...

It would have been better if they had used only AWAY team data, as the Cubs were marked as the 2nd best Hitters park (or, by default, not a good pitcher's park) yet they had the lowest ERA in the NL in 2004. The stats were skewed because the Cubs hit so many HRs and had a good offense (Alou, Sosa, Lee, Ramirez, etc...)

All in all, I assume it is fairly accurate, and Petco park will likely bring Maddux another 15 wins in 2007.

Makes you wonder how bad Adam Eaton's contract will look in a year, if he was that mediocre in a pitcher's park!

I wouldn't worry about things turning bad for the Cubs...they will probably get Lily, and can get Schmidt/Zito if they are willing to pay...so it is all up to Jim Spendry and how bad he wants to win.

One thing that disturbs me is recent articles I read where Hendry doesn't want to trade much, and lose prospects. Huh? Please don't get insane now, JH, just when you looked like you turned a corner. If trading guys like Marshall, Cedeno, and Guzman can net you a worthwhile starting pitcher, then you have to do it!!!

Exactly David, exactly.

Please not Suppan. I'd rather go with Marshall, Marmol, Guzman and/or Mateo.

Agreed Jim (tp) on Maddux.

Things could turn for the worse for the Cubs though in a hurry at these meetings if Jim H can't get the deal done with Lily. (This is assuming of course that you agree that Lily is a good option, which I do.)

The Yanks want Schmidt or Zito. But lets say that Zito gets lured to the Rangers and that Schmidt heads to the Marineers, both possible scenarios. If that happens, the Yanks will overpay for Meche or Lily quickly, leaving the Cubs first choice of Lily stranded. Meche would then be the viable alternative but Hendry would have some ground to make up negotiating with him and as one of the last pitchers available, many teams would be in the mix for his services as well. The Cubs then would end up with a Suppan or someone similar, or in the alternative trade away way too many young arms for a mediocre starter at best.

Obviously there are a hundred different ways these meetings could go, but when things start to roll Hendry better be the one pushing the ball, not getting knocked over by it.

A thought.

* I was hoping that we could have signed Drew for RF, When healthy he can do it all. As for Maddux,

San Diego is getting the 2007 version not the 1997

version. It is time to move on Maddux lovers he is way, way past his prime.

Heard on ESPN radio on the way home from work... the Red Sox GM said that either he trades Manny by tomorrow or he's keeping him for the season. Is it me, or does that sound like a guy that has a deal worked out with someone, but that team is being wishy washy over committing to the deal? :-)