Let the Trading Begin

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The trading deadline is still 17 days away but there have been two significant trades in the past three days that are worth mentioning. The teams that are in contention are making changes, not only on the field but also in the dugout. So while the Cubs appear to be standing firm with their team and according to a report on Cubs.com they "will not dismantle the team with trades", other teams in the Central are making changes to improve for now and in the future.

Whenever there is a trade or free agent signing first thing I always do is try to figure out how it might impact the Cubs, well the two most recent trades will have an immediate one and maybe a long-term effect as well. Trades in the Major Leagues usually have a domino effect, once one team looks like they have improved themselves another one will usually try to improve as well and while there are a lot of teams that are still alive in the post season hunt it could be very quiet before the trading deadline, like last season, or we could all be in for a fun couple of weeks.

The Astros struck first when they acquired Aubrey Huff along with cash ($1.625 million) from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for right-handed pitcher Mitch Talbot and infielder Ben Zobrist both from Double A-Corpus Christi. They also optioned Jason Lane to Triple-A Round Rock. Aubrey Huff has already made a difference in an Astros uniform, he hit a 3-run homer on Thursday night against Florida. The Astros also relieved former Cub, Gary Gaetti of his duties as hitting coach and replaced him with Sean Berry on an interim basis. The Astros realized they needed to improve their offense and took steps to do so. Their team payroll now stands at $106 million, most in the National League and third in the Majors behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

The Reds realized their bullpen was costing them too many games and went out and traded two very good players to get some help in the pitching department. The Reds traded Austin Kearns, shortstop Felipe Lopez and pitcher Ryan Wagner to the Nationals for pitchers Gary Majewski, Bill Bray and Daryl Thompson, infielder Brendon Harris and shortstop Royce Clayton. The Reds bullpen was ranked second worst in the National League at the break. The Reds called up Chris Denorfia to take Kearns place and he will split time with Ryan Freel. Does this trade send Alfonso Soriano back to the Yankees or West to the Angels? And unfortunately the Cubs will get to see both Kearns and Lopez in their new uniform when the Cubs play the Nats next weekend (July 21-23) at RFK.

With the Reds 2 1/2 games back, and both the Astros and the Brewers 5 1/2 games back of the Cardinals and all three within 3 games of the Dodgers for the NL Wild Card, the heat has now been put on the other teams to try to improve....shake up their teams and give them the edge over everyone else. The Brewers have been one of the teams rumored to be interested in Greg Maddux, along with the Dodgers. Did Maddux's value just increase? What other current Cubs are now attractive to other teams that were not a couple of days ago? Did the Astros and Reds just help the Cubs?

Jeff at Cot's Contracts does an excellent job with his site and is a very accurate and reliable source for all Major League teams. He has recently put up on his site a projected Free Agent list for 2007. Anyone interested should check out the list....there are some very intriguing names on it. While no one wants to see their favorite player leave their favorite team, we must all remember that Baseball is a business and in business you have to make tough decisions. Last off-season most of the Faithful wanted to see Corey Patterson traded....well we got what we asked for. Who the Cubs trade in the next couple of weeks will play a major role in molding this team for the future. Just remember sometimes you get what you ask for and when you do it usually comes with price. Just ask all the Austin Kearns fans in Cincinnati.

  • Steve

    I like it a lot Jason. Now lets make some phone calls and get this thing hammered out by the weekend.

    Just venting on Friday. A bad day at work and another Cubs loss. Its a tough season for those of us who live and die with every pitch. Just remember, no matter how bad things get, there's always beer.

  • Jason B. from AZ

    Steve,

    I understand now...I'm sorry...I didn't realize how painful everyday living had become for you, during this miserable Cubs season.

    I agree it is definitely better for you to dream of the impossible, or the improbable, if it keeps you from doing large amounts of drugs, or inflicting bodily injury upon yourself. Better to wax nostalgic about divsion titles past...better to float softly along the waves of a lucid dream about a magical Cubs offseason.

    Here is my contribution to your health, and to keeping your sanity intact.

    The Cubs Future: (imagine Wayne's World "doo doo do do...doo doo do do" fading into a dream sequence)



    While conceding the playoffs are a lost cause for 2006, Jim Hendry sees the 2nd half as an incredible opportunity to develop young talent, keep his core talents playing together, and to bring in new players that are part of the future for next year. Hendry firmly believes that ending 2006 strong, will have a spillover effect for the team in 2007, when they will be deeper, healthier, younger, and hungrier than ever!

    Hendry also concedes that he has been guilty of placing too much value on his prospects, and that there are realistically only so many roster spots, you draft new players every year, so why not use the prospects as trading chips more often. After all, Hendry notes, the Cubs aren't some small-town low-budget franchise that can't afford to part with prospects!

    Hendry then promptly removes Dusty Baker and his coaching staff from their jobs. This includes Rothschild, whom Hendry admits has failed to develop the young talent, and has been wildly unsuccessful in helping to keep the staff healthy. Hendry then burns all the towels burned, and new towels ordered that have stitching that reads "these are towels...meant for wiping sweat & dirt...do not pretend to throw". Hendry installs a bunch of minor league guys as interim coaches, so he can focus on a real manager in the offseason...besides, the minor league guys will know better how to develop and work with the young guys anyway.

    Hendry trades Maddux to LA for Cesar Izturis, the SS who is now playing 3B due to the acquisition of Furcal, and is expendable to the Dodgers.

    Hendry trades Michael Barrett, Rich Hill, Ronny Cedeno and Matt Murton, along with 2 lower level pitching prospects, to the Oakland A's for Barry Zito and Jason Kendall.

    Kendall has a huge contract, so this is a price conscious move for Oakland, and they get some value for Hill before he leaves for nothing in free agency. All the players are under contract for low money for years...right up Oakland's alley. Oakland can bring up their own minor league catcher next year, allowing them to use Barrett in a DH/C role, and Rich Hill wins 15 games for them in 2007, of course.

    Hendry normally doesn't like to spend money on off-season free agents, but he does like to sign his own players to extensions, and once Rich Hill falls in love with Wrigley and Chicago Cubs' fans, he decides to resign with the Cubs in 2007 for 3 years and $38.5 million. Kendall returns to the National League, where his career average is over .300. He brings also his great defense, his leadership, and his ability to bring the best out in his pitchers by calling a great game.

    Hendry trades Phil Nevin and Todd Walker to the Yankees, along with Ryan Theriot and Scott Williamson, for their 2B Robinson Cano. The Yankees get an always useful strong middle reliever, to help eat innings and get the game into Mariano Rivera's hands. They offset the loss of Cano with Walker and Theriot, and if neither work they can always sign Soriano in the offseason anyway. Nevin will help offset some of the outfield injuries they have, as well as give them a DH option, or to rest Giambi against left-handers.

    Cano will combine with Izturis to form a speedy and young, defensively strong double-play combo, who both actual have (gasp!) mlb experience already.

    The Cubs trade Bobby Howry to the Nationals, to shore up their recently depleted bullpen (from the Reds/Nationals trade a couple days ago). In return the Cubs get Livan Hernandez, an experienced winning pitcher who the Nationals would likely lose in free agency. The Nationals get a great reliever who is under contract in Howry...who is a veteran that can provide some bullpen leadership for them.

    Like Zito, the Cubs will resign Hernandez to a 3 yr deal...somewhat risky given that he is older than Zito, but Hernandez does something that Wood and Prior never do...he shows up every 5th day! Livan has averaged about 230 innings pitched the past 7 years.

    The Cubs DFA Rusch and Bynum. They put Pagan in LF for the remainder of the year, and call up some farmhands to fill in the OF backup spots. Neifi is traded to LA as defensive and injury insurance for Jeff Kent, for a lower-level minor league prospect (this trade could also just be part of the Izturis trade).

    Tony Womack is resigned as a backup for the remainder of the year.

    In the offseason, Hendry strays from his usual modis operandus, and signs a big-time free agent in Carlos Lee, and slots him into the LF spot. Pierre is also resigned, and Zambrano gets an extension as well. Prior gets a slight raise in arbitration. Wood signs an incentive-laden deal for the bullpen, which is perfect considering the loss of Howry. Aardsma is also put on the roster, and Novoa is traded to Cleveland in a swap of low-level talent relievers. If Jacque Jones has a bad year, Pie is the fallback for a call-up after the all-star break, but until then his lefty bat is useful.

    Here is the starting rotation:

    Zambrano

    Prior (yes, actually healthy in Spring Training)

    Livan Hernandez

    Barry Zito

    Sean Marshall

    Bullpen

    Wood

    Dempster

    Eyre

    Aardsma

    Marmol

    Ryu or Guzman

    Jerome Williams (long-reliever...spot starter)

    Here is the batting lineup:

    CF Pierre

    SS Cano

    1B Lee

    LF Lee

    3B Ramirez

    RF Jones

    SS Izturis

    C Kendall

    Bench

    Pagan

    Craig Wilson (can play 1B and OF..spell Jacque against lefties and give Lee rest at 1B)

    utility guy

    utility guy

    utility guy

    There you go, Steve. Tell me that isn't a winning team! Now get some sleep!

  • Steve

    Alright is seems my earlier comments were taken to the extreme. I'm not saying that we should dump the entire roster and sign free agents. I was saying specifically trade Maddux, Jones, and Howry or Eyre(not both).

    There aren't superstar quality free agents on the list aside from Carlos Lee. We're not going to resign Maddux, so why not get something for him? Jones has a good bat and can make some great catches in right, but his arm is a major liability. Plus, Jones' value will never be higher. I don't really want to trade away Howry or Eyre, but you could rob some team blind for that kind of talent. You can find another good reliever. You can find a starting pitcher who'll do at least as good as Maddux. There are options out there. All I'm saying is the Cubs should be exploring them.

    I am well aware that the Cubs don't really land the big name free agents. I'm also aware that the postings on this site usually don't live in the realm of reality. We all talk about what we'd do if we were running the show. How the Cubs should do things and why they aren't. I live the through the reality of the Cubs. I escape the reality of this miserable season by thinking of what they should do.

    You want reality? The Cubs will give away Maddux for garbage washed up minor leaguers. They will keep Jones and he'll be hitting in the .230's again next year and continue to make amazingly bad throws from RF. Kerry Wood will get resigned and be counted on as an important part of the rotation. He will get hurt during spring training and miss almost the entire year. Prior will stub his toe and land on the DL for 4 months. Juan Pierre won’t be resigned and Pie will get called up and flop because he’s obviously not ready yet. If he's only hitting .260 in AAA he'll be hitting .160 in the majors. They will make their big free agent splash by landing someone like Russ Ortiz. See....its not so much fun in the real world.

    If they Cubs ran things the way we wanted them to, we'd have more trophy's than the Yankees.

  • Jason B. from AZ

    Hey guys,

    I have said it a bit lately, but it is worth restating:

    Hendry/Tribsters do not spend top dollar on healthy free agents.

    Period. They just don't. The closest you can come is Maddux and Alou, and Maddux was on the decline, Alou had an injury history, and they were both getting up in age.

    Here is what Hendry/Tribsters prefer to do: hope to swindle someone in a trade (think: what the Nationals just did to the Reds...getting two position players for middle relievers...the Reds were STUPID to make that trade).

    The other thing they do is resign their own players...like Wood, Aramis, Lee, etc. This bodes well for us keeping Pierre, which I like.

    I didn't even bother looking at the free agent list...why should I? The Cubs won't get anyone good off of it. My hope is that Hendry starts trading Maddux, Williamson, Walker, Neifi, Rusch, Nevin, and some prospects and brings in some good up-and-coming established talent, just as he did with Lee and Ramirez.

    I was disappointed to see how easy it was to get Kearns and Lopez from the Reds. Hendry could have easily done that...although the Reds may have been opposed to trading them in the same division, possibly. Also, Huff was had for a couple of prospects...Hendry could have easily done that.

    I hope Hendry has a plan, because right now it appears he is sitting on his hands. He also needs to clearly state the job security of his manager, because otherwise Mimi will continue to "play to win" by inserting Neifi, Nevin, Pagan, Rusch, and Bynum, instead of developing the young players. If Mimi feels like his job depends on winning, instead of developing players, then we will have some ugly baseball the next few months, and we will have wasted a chance to give these young players some incredibly valuable mlb experience.

    Lastly: trade Rich Hill. The Cubs coaching staff can't develop this guy, but his stats in the minors make his valuable to other clubs...he could really net us a good player!

  • HUGECubsFan

    I think Hendry needs to stop thinking the cubs are good with what they got.

    They are a team that needs new attitude and new direction.HOW ABOUT TRADING WILLIAMSON AND WUERTZ AND MAYBE NOVOA TO THE SOX FOR FREDDY GARCIA!!!COME ON HENDRY. AND GET RID OF RUSCH

  • jim

    That list is not that great and most of the good talent will re-sign with there teams. That leaves a lot of has beens and ex-cubs. The cubs need to make some moves becasue the free agent list will not look that good in 4 months.

  • Ryan

    This is basically in response to Steve's post although I'm not trying to blast him. I really don't see the point it dealing away some of our best players, especially ones we have locked in for years to come (Eyre, Howry, Jones) to beef up our farm system. Haven't we seen this year that our farm system isn't going to win us ball games on a consistent basis? I could really care less if the Diamond Jaxx win it all if the Cubs finish with 100 losses. We need proven veteran players who can come through in the clutch and unloading those players aren't going to help us in the future. I also wouldnt put huge faith in Hendry going out and getting 4-star free agents during the offseason either to fix any trade mistakes. Yeah Hendry acquired Aram and D-Lee but these guys weren't the marquee players out there at the time. They were diamonds in the rough that happened to work out for us. I'm not saying I have all the answers because I don't. I'm just saying, unloading our veterans to pick up prospects isn't going to help us win a World Series anytime soon and neither will putting our faith in Hendry to go sign the stars we need with the hard earned dollars we spend on our Cubs.

  • jim

    I was not one who wanted cory to go. I wanted him in right field.

  • Steve

    I was just looking at that projected free agent list. There is plenty of talent to be had on the free agent market. So, let's start wheeling and dealing. Bring in some prospects to restock the farm system. The Brewers aren't going to give Carlos Lee to a division rival. The Dodger's might part with some quality prospects for Maddux. I'd bet you could rob some team blind for Howry or Eyre. Many teams would over pay for Jacque Jones right now. I was really hoping that the Cubs would’ve acquired Aubry Huff, but he’s on the Astros now. There are plenty of deals out there to make. Jim Hendry shouldn't be afraid to pull the trigger when there's this many good free agents coming available this year. If you make a mistake you can fix it by signing a free agent in the off season. Just make some moves so you can have the next 2 and a half months to evaluate.

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